Morgan: 50-50

“L-NP in front on Face-to-Face Morgan Poll for First time since Federal Election”, reads the Roy Morgan headline, with some understatement: the 51.5-48.5 headline figure represents the first time the Coalition has led Labor in a Morgan face-to-face poll since June 2006. However, this is the two-party figure derived by using respondent-allocated preferences for minor party voters, rather than the consistently more reliable measure of distributing preferences according to the results of the previous election, on which the parties are evenly split. Labor’s two-party vote has crashing to 48.5 per cent from 53 per cent a fortnight ago (52.5 per cent on the respondent-allocated measure), from primary votes of 38 per cent (down 2.5 per cent) for Labor, 43 per cent (up 2.5 per cent) for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent (steady) for the Greens. The poll covers 1757 respondents from the last two weekends of face-to-face surveying.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,358 comments on “Morgan: 50-50”

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  1. [same old same old]
    It took someone to create the world six days, so it is said. Julia is pretty good but your expectations of her abilities are a little extreme; she is not omnipotent nor omnipresent.

  2. [oops sorry

    I know I am endlessly naive but I was excited when Gillard replaced Rudd. I thought a “left” member chosen as PM .. wow what a new, exciting turning point for Labor and Australia… and …..still waiting ….same old same old]

    perhaps you should change your screen name from ‘marsupial’ to ‘bunny’

  3. About that “Extraordinary Parliamentary Committee” that some people seem to be confused about……some people seem to see as an attempt to wedge/silence or otherwise trick the opposition…..some people seem to see as the govt trying to get others to do it’s job…..some people see as naive/akin to the peoples’ assembly on CC…..or whatever else some people see it as……

    Why not just see it for what it is and access the FACTS………here they are:

     http://www.pm.gov.au/node/7062  …..scroll down to the 5th Q&A. It’s all there…clear enough for even the most prejudiced reader.

    What do some people want?……..Lies? Distortions? Mis-representation? Quoting out of context?

    If the answer is YES (but only if my prejudice is reinforced)……then go to your favoured MSM outlet…….there’s plenty to choose from, and you’re sure to find one to your taste…..

    If the answer is NO….then go to the source…..it’s invariably free…..and easy to access (and will thankfully become even more accessible as the NBN is rolled out….)

  4. jaundiced view @ 188
    [The Greens couldn’t vote for it because it was far too weak]

    So, they prefer to do NOTHING to help the environment … instead of doing something.

    They prefer to vote with Tony Abbott, instead of supporting a bill which could have been an important first-step to taking action on climate change.

  5. The most vehement Gillard detractors here are those who still hold a grudge in regard to her gaining the leadership of the ALP. That makes it so hard to determine whether they genuinely find her lacking in some areas or are still venting their spleen, as they did earlier in the year. To me it is more likely the latter.

  6. [Why do people have trouble with the parties working together? Hell, for this parliament to work effectiviely they bloody have to.]

    gary, is that you? Gary Bruce gary? or some other type of gary?

    Joolya didn’t ask for bipartisan view of the Christmas Island tragedy in order to show parliament working effectively

    She did it to try and spread around the accountability for this issue. She doesn;t want the ALP to wear all of it, a problem shared is a problem halved.

    In my view, this needs to be outside of politics entirely, any investigation needs to no-partisan, not bi-partisan

  7. [In my view, this needs to be outside of politics entirely, any investigation needs to no-partisan, not bi-partisan]
    But the investigations will be. That is not the function of this c’tee.

  8. Actually, Julia’s mistake was to further politicise something that should be left in the hands of the police, customs, immigration authorities etc.
    Overall, I’m less than impressed, she hasn’t lived up to the hype of her supporters.
    If she’s so much better than Rudd, where’s the evidence?
    The only thing Julia’s got going for her is that she’s not Tony Abbott.

  9. [Why do people have trouble with the parties working together? Hell, for this parliament to work effectiviely they bloody have to.]

    Yes, it’s very interesting. Those who were decrying her to lead and show initiative only days ago are the very people raining on her bipartisan approach to fact dissemination today.

  10. Back again and trying to catch up.
    My broad view is that the Right was floundering against the Left for a long time through the 20th century but they have now discovered that you can manufacture doubt in the masses and in the confusion you can bypass the logical and rational arguments and get to keep the power and the money. Their tools: the sophistry of user pays; skeptical science; protect our borders etc etc

    I sometimes think that all this argument on PB misses the point. This very argument is part of the Right’s victory. And that is why, the older I get, the more people like Frank sound sane and the more the young bucks annoy me. The more we argue the stronger the right gets. To quote Frank: FACT!

    Anyway. I will sit back and hope to be proved wrong.

  11. Fact dissemination – isn’t that what the AFP & the Coroner are there for?
    Admit it, she was trying to wedge the Liberals, a reverse wedge if you like, and it hasn’t worked.

  12. [About that “Extraordinary Parliamentary Committee” that some people seem to be confused about]

    My opinion on the Labor call for the bi-partisan inquiry is that it makes Labor look weak, desperate, out of ideas and most of all BEATEN on the entire boatpeople issue.

    I wouldn’t call it wedging as they managed to wedge themselves with this little stunt.

    What it does look like is they have no idea what to do and they need the coalition to help hold their hand and guide them through this. I think this is how most of the punters out there in voter land will also see it.

  13. [But the investigations will be. That is not the function of this c’tee]

    Really? I hadn’t picked up on that.

    It just seems to me that Joolya has tried to prepare for the political fallout a bit too early in the process, unseemly like, she should have waited a bit and is probably conscious of having green lighted the boat arrivals

  14. I’m another not enthused by government by committee, even when they are in minority. IMHO, the people want leadership. So give it to them!

    I really think Gillard needs to assume that Labor will be done like a dinner in 2013 and govern like she only has the next 3 years to do all those things she entered politics for.

    If she does then she’ll get at least another term. If she shilly-shallies and governs for the poll ratings as Labor seems to have for much of the last 3 years, then the Rudd/Gillard Governments will rate with Billy McMahon’s in the history books.

  15. [Actually, Julia’s mistake was to further politicise something that should be left in the hands of the police, customs, immigration authorities etc.]
    Once again, the C’tee is not investigating. The proper authorites are.

  16. [My opinion on the Labor call for the bi-partisan inquiry is that it makes Labor look weak, desperate, out of ideas and most of all BEATEN on the entire boatpeople issue.

    I wouldn’t call it wedging as they managed to wedge themselves with this little stunt.

    What it does look like is they have no idea what to do and they need the coalition to help hold their hand and guide them through this. I think this is how most of the punters out there in voter land will also see it.]

    It’s an attempted “reverse wedge” against Abbott/Morrison, and I can see why the Libs aren’t biting, much as I depise Abbott’s overall xenophobic approach.
    Of course it makes her look weak!

  17. evan14: Wedging the Libs? No, I don’t think that’s what she was trying to do. I think she was genuinely trying to defuse the issue by bringing the parliament into the dissemination process.

    Again, she is damned for showing some initiative by those who wanted her to show some.

  18. It doesn’t matter who is the leader. This leader stuff is a tool of the Right to reduce real political debate to soap opera.

    Step back: what are the real issues? Without mentioning names. What is the course of action that will lead to the greatest good for all involved? These are the real questions.

  19. [It’s an attempted “reverse wedge” against Abbott/Morrison, and I can see why the Libs aren’t biting, much as I depise Abbott’s overall xenophobic approach.
    Of course it makes her look weak!]
    No it isn’t. Boy, are you influenced by the media. It is a fact dessimination C’tee. Nothing more, nothing less.

  20. [I really think Gillard needs to assume that Labor will be done like a dinner in 2013 and govern like she only has the next 3 years to do all those things she entered politics for. ]

    Let Gillard be Gillard!!!

    Yes Toby, lets get Josh in the room, what about CJ, where’s Leo O No he’s dead of a heart attack etc

  21. Wasn’t Rudd derided for “governing by committee”?
    Julia was going to be far more decisive, according to her many fans, correct? 😀
    I repeat – the AFP, the WA coroner etc ought to handle the fact dissemination, not another parliamentary committee.

  22. [Again, she is damned for showing some initiative by those who wanted her to show some.]
    The evans of this blog are delighted they have someting to distort to suit their cause. We know what their motivation is. Think back a few months.

  23. [It’s an attempted “reverse wedge” against Abbott/Morrison, and I can see why the Libs aren’t biting, much as I depise Abbott’s overall xenophobic approach.
    Of course it makes her look weak!]

    Well usually wedges only work when you do something popular for the public thats unpopular in the party room.

    As keen as I am to see Gillies gone, you got that feeling Labor hoistered the big White Flag down at Labor headquarters the second they asked for the coalitions help on the inquiry. Pathetic, simply pathetic.

  24. Gweneth, good sentiments but the mistake you are making is that Gillard is the target. If you take the names out of it the motivation wanes.

  25. Julia is decisive……by getting the Liberals to in effect hold her hand?
    By trying to take the politics out of the thing, she’s achieved the opposite – a blatant own goal.

  26. Gary

    It is a fact dessimination C’tee.

    It’s also been in the last two days according to Gillard, a committee:

    1. “for managing the response to this incident

    2. “a bipartisan reporting mechanism”

    3. “a body that would draw conclusions and work out whether anything different should have been done”

    But today it was definitely ONLY:

    “to receive reports and get the facts. ”

    It’s certainly looking more and more like just a wedge and a distraction exercise to me given the inconsistency about its purpose.

  27. Their is only one way that Labor will come close to winning the next election with Julia Gillard in charge and that is with Tony Abbott as leader otherwise Labor will losely easily if the Libs have Turnbull as leader facing Gillard. Julia is a dud and has always been a dud leader.

  28. Why do you need a committee, bipartisan or otherwise, to disseminate the facts that have been determined by a Coroner, AFP and Customs investigation?

    We don’t need a committee to tell us what is in a Coroners report. We just read it.

  29. This idea will last as long as the Climate Change Assembly!
    Rudd at his highest level of control freakery would never have been this dumb!
    The whole thing smells of Arbib/Feeney/Farrell/Karl Bitar, once again. 😉

  30. [This idea will last as long as the Climate Change Assembly!
    Rudd at his highest level of control freakery would never have been this dumb!
    The whole thing smells of Arbib/Feeney/Farrell/Karl Bitar, once again.]
    But you said he worked in c’tees. Which is it? He did or didn’t?

  31. [Why do you need a committee, bipartisan or otherwise, to disseminate the facts that have been determined by a Coroner, AFP and Customs investigation?

    We don’t need a committee to tell us what is in a Coroners report. We just read it.]

    Yep, exactly!

    Why the hell couldn’t she have said instead that we’ll let the AFP/Customs/WA Coroner conduct their own investigations and leave it at that? Then, if the Libs try and play politics with this, they look like the bad guys.
    Spectacularly bad judgement on her part, but as Gary would say, I’m just an embittered Ruddite. 😆

  32. Evan you are correct another bloody committee, how about some policy Labor!
    The Bank reforms were a flop, asylum seekers is turning into a flop, on Julian Assage she flopped… she is what Paul Keating use to say flip flop Julia.
    Not suggesting one minute that the Libs are any better they are far more pathetic.
    But Labor needs to get some momentum on the policy front and at the moment they are going nowhere.

  33. [We don’t need a committee to tell us what is in a Coroners report. We just read it.]

    Except we don’t. BER anyone?

    The reality is the PM suggests a different approach to what we’ve seen in the past with these things (esp emotive divisive issues like AS) and gets ridiculed for doing business as usual, or worse, trying to wedge the Libs. Some of you need to get a grip.

  34. [Why do you need a committee, bipartisan or otherwise, to disseminate the facts that have been determined by a Coroner, AFP and Customs investigation?]
    Because last time the facts didn’t get out and when that happens people start making facts up.
    What better way of actually getting the facts out there than to get all sides stating the facts as they are and not just one side doing so while the other distorts them.

  35. [But you said he worked in c’tees. Which is it? He did or didn’t?]

    Hey Gary, I think you are digging your hole deeper and deeper.

    Whatever spin you put on it, Labor asking for the Coalition to help them with a committee looks desperate and defeatist.

    Whats next, Gillies asking if Abbott can help run the country for a month?

  36. So establishing an access point for information that is bipartisan is wrong? I mean EVERY political party has said this is a tragedy. So we want the best outcome don’t we?

    What if Assange was the chair of the committee – would that make it better?

  37. [Evan you are correct another bloody committee, how about some policy Labor!
    The Bank reforms were a flop, asylum seekers is turning into a flop, on Julian Assage she flopped… she is what Paul Keating use to say flip flop Julia.
    Not suggesting one minute that the Libs are any better they are far more pathetic.
    But Labor needs to get some momentum on the policy front and at the moment they are going nowhere.]

    To his credit, Shorten’s superannuation reforms are welcome, but this government seems incapable of getting positive media coverage for good policy initiatives.
    As someone remarked earlier, Rudd has got more media attention lately than the rest of them combined, and not only because of the Wikileaks stuff.
    I guess though that it’s easy for the apologists to blame the biased media. 😉

  38. [We don’t need a committee to tell us what is in a Coroners report. We just read it.]
    How naive is this? The one criticism of both the Rudd and Gillard governments has been that they have failed to get the message out. Asking people to report a report is a sure fire way of making sure the message doesn’t get out.

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