The sample size (550 respondents) and margin of error (about 4.2 per cent) are such that you would want to treat it with caution, but a new Morgan phone poll has turned up remarkably poor results for the government: Labor’s primary vote is on just 30 per cent against 47 per cent for the Coalition and 13.5 per cent for the Greens, with the Coalition leading on two-party preferred 55-45. The poll was conducted over Wednesday and Thursday evenings.
UPDATE: Morgan has issued further data on personal ratings which shows Julia Gillard failing to take the hit on personal ratings you would expect from the numbers on voting intention, which further inclines me to treat the poll with suspicion. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 48 per cent with 39 per cent disapproval, while Tony Abbott’s numbers are 48 per cent and 41 per cent. Gillard holds a 46-40 lead as preferred prime minister. Respondents were also asked to nominate their preferred leaders for the Labor and Liberal parties. Julia Gillard is favoured as Labor leader by 33 per cent against 20 per cent for Kevin Rudd, compared with 35 per cent and 25 per cent shortly after the federal election. Malcolm Turnbull remains favoured ahead of Tony Abbott as Liberal leader overall, by 31 per cent (down a point) to 23 per cent (up two). In both cases supporters of the party were happier with the incumbent. If Gillard were removed from the picture, 27 per cent would favour Rudd, 14 per cent Wayne Swan, 13 per cent Stephen Smith and 11 per cent Bill Shorten. Without Abbott, 39 per cent would favour Turnbull, 30 per cent Joe Hockey and 11 per cent Julie Bishop.
A simple campaign like . Tell Gillard to put Australia first, leave WikiLeaks alone.
Or ‘Its not USA first, its Australia first, leave WikiLeaks alone’
[OK Gary, why are these polls like this?]
Are you aware thar graph shows Labor’s vote free falling under Kev as well as falling under JG? In fact under JG it shows a recovery up to the leaks.
At no stage did I say everything is Kev’s fault. Red herring.
Sit back and relax all those coming out now about gloom and doom for labor and make sure you are registered to vote in late 2013!
That is about 75 Newspolls and 60 Morgans and Neilsens away.
Can you snip it william?
Does Arbib’s close relationship with the Americans explain Gillard’s and Swan’s pressure on Rudd to drop the ETS?
[I hated Rudd, because with him, I believe the Liberals were no chance. I was on record saying that, even when the Liberals were leading, they always give an elected PM another chance, because Australians do not like to admit they were wrong. Julia might win a “Honeymoon” election, but she really does not perform very well
When Rudd was PM, I enjoyed listening to what he said, he was entertaining. With Julia, I do not listen to what she says, when she is on tv. I think a lot of Australians does that]
Sorry dovif but I think you’re rewriting history, as with some others here.
Will there be cables showing the American’s having their contacts/persons getting policy changed?
Dio
I was under the impression that gillard had asked for the australian specific cables from the US and that was what had been refused. The *wadding* through heaps of cables etc – I took that as general stuff.
No doubt whatever the true position is, it will become clear at soon stage.
If the yanks in charge of security of these cables had been in the same positions in china, they would have been long cold in their graves by now.
I just hope the US have *others* in charge of their nuclear security ? 🙁
[Does Arbib’s close relationship with the Americans explain Gillard’s and Swan’s pressure on Rudd to drop the ETS?]
What do you mean by ‘close relationships’ TP?
You’re endowing a few US ambassadors, or their minions, with a great deal of power. You know as well as I do that ambassadors actually don’t have much sway. Their job is basically information gathering and perhaps attempting to persuade.
But most nations are more interested in their own national interest than to bow in any substantial way to another govt’s envoys.
Get real people. Don’t take Hollywood as your example. MOst of this stuff is mundane — just like the leaks we’ve seen so far.
Another loss to Australia was Therese a great first lady
You gotta wonder have we got anyone else who is newsworthy except the Rudds 😉
http://www.smh.com.au/national/rudds-wife-awarded-top-human-rights-medal-20101210-18sgj.html
Gary
Feel free to check my posts, I always said Rudd was a more formidable opponent
you will definitely find posts from me saying they would be stupid to knife Rudd, it is not going to happen
Yeah I was wrong
Well you can twitter The Guardian to search their database of Cables for anything on say: Australia, ETS and a time.
It is an offer they put out last night on their web site.
The decline in Labor’s TPP can be traced to the commencement of this round of interest rate tightenings. October 2009 was the first increase in rates for over 18 months. The sudden decline for Julia is related to the most recent interest rate rises in November which were exacerbated by the Banks using it as the opportunity to increase lending margins.
What these do is make the punters disgruntled and looking for someone to blame as their disposable cash is squeezed. Families have aslso been squeezed by excessive increases in utility prices.
So, the fact they turned against Rudd and now Gillard is related to COL issues.
[Human Rights Medal]
Well Rudd can hardly go the persecution route with Assange with that news either. More likely impetus to press for the opposite.
I’m not a tweeter — can someone go in and search for AWB, Tampa, Saddam Hussein & Aust funding, Howard and Bush? Dolly?
The Aussie press will have to release said cables if there are individuals here who can disseminate them.
[What these do is make the punters disgruntled and looking for someone to blame as their disposable cash is squeezed. Families have aslso been squeezed by excessive increases in utility prices. ]
Yep the hip pocket always does it. That leaves a vulnerability, for if other negative feelings come along, like this Wiki thing it reinforces the feelings and opinion of the govt.
[I have a theory that the MSM have started with Rudd & co to blunt public reaction when the coalition stuff starts emerging.]
It appears that WikiLeaks are releasing the documents from 2010 back to 1966. From the slider on Le Monde’s coverage in the following link (it’s in French but easy to follow) the documents that have been release date back to 2006:
http://www.lemonde.fr/international/visuel/2010/12/06/wikileaks-lire-les-memos-diplomatiques_1449709_3210.html#ens_id=1446739
Oh Lookie here:
[Supporters of Julian Assange and his WikiLeaks website have been protesting in Brisbane.
The crowd, estimated by police at about 200, gathered outside the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Brisbane’s CBD. ]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/10/3090312.htm?section=justin
How many afgain ??
200.
Is that the best thqat the Wikillovers can muster.
I’m again proven correct.
Joe Public is more worried about Xmas and Oprah.
Not a Hacker on Steroids.
When was the ETS issue heating up and a DD becoming possible?
I might Twitter the Guardian to search their database if there is any comment on this subject.
dovif how do you marry what you have said about Rudd here with these past statements of yours on Rudd?
[dovif says:
09:17am | 24/05/10
Unfortunitely for Kevin Rudd, it was Kevin who set the bar so high for himself, he wanted to be everything to everyone. He cared about the grocery prices, the fuel prices, he wanted to be an economic conservative, he wan’t to promise about climate change,.
He wanted to be everything that was vote winning. when some of those goals eventually collide (ie ETS and economy) he backflipped, and he end up standing for nothing, this was always going to happen. Rudd overpromised and underdelivered by a significant margin]
[dovif says:
01:44pm | 24/05/10
demeter
whatever would buy him votes, people are easily fooled
Just see fuel watch, grocery watch, ETS
If he think saying sorry to the Pakistan cricket team will buy him votes he would
He is the politician about nothing]
GG
You might have something there, they turned against Howard, when the interest rate was rising too. And he lost the election
Maybe it is the Wayne Swann effect ….. thy shall not let inflation genie out of the bottle, or else you would face the consequences
Good to see you Frank. The Kev loving, Julia haters have been having orgasms over this Morgan poll.
And as a comparison:
[American talk show queen Oprah Winfrey has arrived at Melbourne’s Federation Square for her only public appearance of her whirlwind Australian tour.
The square is packed with thousands of her fans, some of whom have been there since early in the morning.
]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/12/10/3090355.htm
I rest my case.
Garry
And those did happen, it was always the delivery that led Labor down, the failure of Minister for not burning the Midnight oil or reading reports and Gillard.
neither of those posts showed any preference for Rudd vs Gillard
Check my post near the time of challenges
[Good to see you Frank. The Kev loving, Julia haters have been having orgasms over this Morgan poll.]
Gary, do you have something against orgasms?
dovif,
Costello says the interest rate rise during the 2007 election was the straw that broke the Government’s back.
The decline of Labor’s TPP can be traced to the Oceanic Viking. The interest rate increases have not come into play until recently, and yes the recent double wammy would have had an affect on the polls.
Julia is terminal, she won’t be fighting the next election. I am hard put to find someone with anything positive to say and excuses as to the bad performance- poor advice, poor media performance, poor briefing, yada yada.
She needs to hold the crease for the next 6 months then stand aside for not sure, maybe shorten, maybe peter garret (joke) combet (nah)
[ Gary
Posted Friday, December 10, 2010 at 4:45 pm | Permalink
Good to see you Frank. The Kev loving, Julia haters have been having orgasms over this Morgan poll.
]
I know – talk about defecating in your own nest.
And note there have been 2 Wikileaks Rallies which have both have had crowds of 200.
What a real groundswell of support – NOT.
[Gary, do you have something against orgasms?]
Does it sound like I do?
Frank,
The ABC roving reporter says Oprah was bigger than the Pope. Sounds hyperbolic, but she covered the Pope’s visit too.
[What a real groundswell of support – NOT.]
The support is being played out on the web, not in the streets.
I have tweeted the following using the format they requested.
[Tweet
Latest: @gdncables Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme December/January 2009-10 Australia ]
[ Scarpat
Posted Friday, December 10, 2010 at 4:50 pm | Permalink
What a real groundswell of support – NOT.
The support is being played out on the web, not in the streets.
]
Amongst Geeks.
Ask Joe Public – it’s a big MEH.
GG
Cost of living and mortgage stress are real reasons for voting out governments
The irony is that if the economy is performing too well, ie people are well remunerated and have money to spend …. inflation happens … and interest rate rises
The key seem to be to make sure the economy is not going really well, people do not have jobs and you get re-elected
The IRONY
[Oprah was bigger than the Pope]
In dimensions or weight?
[And note there have been 2 Wikileaks Rallies which have both have had crowds of 200.
What a real groundswell of support – NOT.]
Says it all Frank. Some here are legends in their own minds. I think GG has it right for the reasons for any loss of support at the moment (if in fact there is any since the election) and that’s cost of living pressures. Wikileaks and party factional problems mean very little to the average Joe.
As for the toxic Arbib- vex news can’t save him. He is the Tripodi of federal arena- please go along quietly
centaur,
Oceanic Viking?
Yeah, sure, the streets of Australia are full of people worried about that!
Scarpat — love to but have no idea about french!!!!
Dave
It would be incredibly poor for the US to screw up and lose all these files and then refuse to give the relevant ones to an ally when they know they will come out.
Even the U S couldn’t be that bad, could they?
Not saying they are GG- look at the polls. It showed a government held to ransom by a bunch of AS’s. People really hate that stuff GG
[Amongst Geeks.
Ask Joe Public – it’s a big MEH.]
Frank, I am not talking about just Ostraya – the support or otherwise needs to be measured across the world on this issue. In the Australian context, feet in the street, in IMO does not give a good measure for or against a particular issue. Australia is not France for example where people do go out in the streets to protest a particular issue or cause – it is ‘ingrained’ into the culture.
[Gary
Posted Friday, December 10, 2010 at 4:53 pm | Permalink
And note there have been 2 Wikileaks Rallies which have both have had crowds of 200.
What a real groundswell of support – NOT.
Says it all Frank. Some here are legends in their own minds. I think GG has it right for the reasons for any loss of support at the moment (if in fact there is any since the election) and that’s cost of living pressures. Wikileaks and party factional problems mean very little to the average Joe.
]
Exactly, a a geek spreading gossip doesn’t rate on the radar of people battling a Mortgage and raising their kids.
Those thinking this is the smoking Gun should stop smoking the Wacky Tobaccky.
Gary
you will also find lots of post of me making fun of Swann and his imaginery world of inflation genies,
and Gillard’s BER aka School hall building project, for paying more for bulk buying, so we can vote at school hall with Chairman Rudd face on it … I was wrong because Gillard’s plan for the next election was to have Gillard’s face at the polling station while we vote
And Garrett’s I did not read that report that I commissions? What is a Green loan? I through pink batt flys around Sydney tower at night
Yeah I am not a big fan of labor, lets keep it a secret
[Posted Friday, December 10, 2010 at 4:57 pm | Permalink
Amongst Geeks.
Ask Joe Public – it’s a big MEH.
Frank, I am not talking about just Ostraya – the support or otherwise needs to be measured across the world on this issue. In the Australian context, feet in the street, in IMO does not give a good measure for or against a particular issue. Australia is not France for example where people do go out in the streets to protest a particular issue or cause – it is ‘ingrained’ into the culture.
]
GEt your hand off it – even overseas it’s the same.
Geeks and inner city penile massagers.
NOT Joe Sixpack.
centaur,
Arbib’s done nothing that Bob Brown has not been doing for years and he seems quite proud of the fact that he’s been a US snout.
“While both major parties are critical of massive leaks the Greens Leader Bob Brown is enjoying them. For him it’s a case of the more the better.
BOB BROWN: The WikiLeaks revelations continue. I think they are a marvellous source of information for people. I even get a run myself and I am very pleased about that”.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s3090227.htm
And forgot this bit in Sydney where Laborf is supposed to be toxic:
[Meanwhile, about 400 people have gathered in Sydney in support of Mr Assange.]
3 Rallies with the the Grand total of 800 people.
What a frigging Joke.
The old hip pocket nerve aye?
That’s why the scare campaign by Tone when the govt tries to bring in their carbon tax will result in more bad polls for labor
[Not a Hacker on Steroids/
I know – talk about defecating in your own nest./
Those thinking this is the smoking Gun should stop smoking the Wacky Tobaccky./
Geeks and inner city penile massagers.]
how to win friends and influence people?
[Scarpat — love to but have no idea about french!!!!]
Jenauthor – if you scroll down to the slider and drag it to the left, it shows that they have cables going back 1493 days. Up higher on that page it shows that have 984 cables dating from 27 February 2010 back to 12 January 2006 (for the slider period).