The latest Newspoll has the two-party vote at 50-50, after an anomalous 52-48 in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago. Labor has 34 per cent of the vote, the Coalition 41 per cent and the Greens 14 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full Newspoll results here. The Labor lead from a fortnight ago may have proved ephemeral, but the improvement in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings has mostly stuck: her approval is down a point to 45 per cent and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 54-31 to 52-32. Tony Abbott’s approval is steady on 42 per cent and his disapproval is down two to 43 per cent. On climate change, scepticism is found to have fallen since February but rise since July 2009, belief having gone from 84 per cent to 73 per cent to 77 per cent and non-belief from 12 per cent to 22 per cent to 18 per cent. When it was put to respondents that the federal government’s carbon pricing plans could lead to higher energy costs, 47 per cent said they remained in favour while 49 per cent were against.
Some bedtime thoughts from George Megalogenis in Quarterly Essay:
I know I’m whistling in the wind, but wouldn’t it be nice if Newspoll were to go back to one poll per month? The Australian’s survey of federal voting intensions went fortnightly in 1992 and Newspoll made its reputation in the following year’s election by picking the late swing to Labor. Don’t change what works, right? Unfortunately, two Newspolls per month throughout a term provide too much temptation for mischief. Every half-smart backbencher can pull together a spreadsheet to show why their boss should be rolled. Lobby groups just have to wait for a couple of bad polls before they put the squeeze on government.
It may be coincidence, of course, but there has been a dizzying turnover of political leadership talent since Newspoll went fortnightly. The Liberals were the first Opposition to have three leaders in a term between 1993 and 1996. The man in the middle, Alexander Downer, was the first major-party leader not to contest a federal election. On the Labor side, Simon Crean was pulled down at the end of 2003, before he could face the people in the follwing year. Labor also had three leaders between 2004 and 2007. But these were mere dress rehearsals for the chaos of the past three years, when a first-term government had two prime ministers and a first-term Opposition had three leaders. The trend is clearly accelerating.
The Anarchy in this forum over Wikileaks,
Me thinks its time for get out of this forum till next year.
later guys 🙂
Laurie Oakes, with his stupid comments, has started to believe his own PR. I used to respect his commentary, largely because he was smart enought to stay above the fray. I hope to god he was just a victim of too much Kool Aid, because if not the standard of journalism in this country has totally gone down the krapper.
zoom
[WL is drip feeding information to the msm – and playing favourites in doing so, too. This suggests that WL does not see the msm as dead or irrelevant; quite the opposite.
(I would also note that the drip feeding of information in this way is also contradictory to their free and open flow of information meme – why not release it all at the same time?)]
they have to the group of 5 publishers
perhaps your angst should be directed to them?
or is wiki the target not the info??
Interesting Agenda with Loosely and Gary Humphries. Gillard was looking for Humphries to say that Arbib was the big bad evil for leading Labor info to the US. Instead Humphries said wtte “I’ve talked to them about Liberal internal stuff before the 07 election. If they write about me, with big headlines, I’ll frame it.”
See – that’s how easy it is to get away with stuff – the Liberals hit it front on. Gillan was obviously in shock because she didn’t ask him what juicy info he’d given the US about the Libs.
Both said the gossipy bits of Wikileaks are a non event for everyone except the media. All the stories re Kev were about anyway and the only problems with the leaks are those parts which may create security headaches.
A surprisingly bipartisan Agenda this morning with Humphries not doing his bad Labor routine from last week.
BTW – Loosley said the PM was right to say the ‘formation stone of leaks’ is an illegality no matter which way you look at it. Assange not responsible for that and given full Oz rights as with any other citizen o/s.
Dio – just read your answer re working in the UK. Adelaide’s gain UK’s loss.
I will be cheeky here and say NSW gained a cracker family when we left SA!!
BH
I do spent 2 days in Broken Hill a month so I’m partly NSW, if they count BH as NSW.
An awful lot of good people leave SA.
And no comment from you about that, GG, thank you.
3697
TP
[Assange can never attain fair and true treatment under a Gillard Government or with AG McClelland as they have made it clear they will aid the USA in finding something to charge Assange with, and turn him over to the USA, without reference whatsoever to what the charge might be or if it is political in nature.
Prime Minister Gillard places the value of Australian citizenship below that of the petulant requests of an embarrassed USA.]
It is truly a sad state of moral decline and seems like it is on the same level as the previous government who allowed carte blanche of the trashing of Australians in the hands of the seppos, with the incarceration of David Hicks without seeking a fair trial, the shady rendition and torture of Abib to Egypt and Gitmo, the incarceration of Cornelia Rau etc etc. Then we had the callous disregard for Haneefs rights.
The list goes on and will keep going on until the real crims Bush & co, Blair and Howard are fronted up to answer for their war crimes.
Protection of Australian citizens and their rights to a fair go should be paramount.
I lived in Adelaide for 14 months because my husband was working there. Nice place but so little work there.
gaff
if anything wikileaks has shown who is for freedom and transparancy and who is a chook
first it was assange stole the data, then it was wikileaks had stole the data
-that didnt work so
assange was a criminal?? wtf and deserved to go to jail, wikileaks was dumping stuff indiscriminately that could endanger national security
– that didnt work so
assange was somehow a pawn of the elite and we were being hoodwinked, wikileaks was releasing only right freindly cables
– that didnt work so
assange was releasing cocktail party talks to discredit the ALP, wikileaks was a massive false flag to somehow protect murdoch
– that didnt work so
ad infinitum
🙁
Regarding the media organisatoins and WikiLeaks. As far as I can gather, WikiLeaks handed over all the US Cables to Der Spiegel, Le Monde, The Guardian and El Pais. The New York Times were not given the data by WikiLeaks, rather The Guardian shared the data with them, without the initial knowledge of WikiLeaks. Subsequently, Fairfax have gotten some sort of deal going to access the Australian related cables only.
I wonder how long before the finger is pointed at Arbib as the Oakes leaker ?
While he didn’t have direct access to the gang of 4 discussions, he is senior
enough in the party to have accessed it and the other information indirectly.
If he would leak stuff to a foreign power, its a small step to leak it domestically.
Why has NO journo asked the Libs directly if they had given similar briefings
about the internal machinations within the liberal party, oh, say around the time of the APEC meeting in Sydney in mid 2007 just before the election.
Silly question of course.
Dio –
Next time you are in Broken Hill, just try *suggesting* they are NOT part of NSW. 🙂
[if anything wikileaks has shown who is for freedom and transparancy and who is a chook
first it was assange stole the data, then it was wikileaks had stole the data
-that didnt work so
assange was a criminal?? wtf and deserved to go to jail, wikileaks was dumping stuff indiscriminately that could endanger national security
– that didnt work so
assange was somehow a pawn of the elite and we were being hoodwinked, wikileaks was releasing only right freindly cables
– that didnt work so
assange was releasing cocktail party talks to discredit the ALP, wikileaks was a massive false flag to somehow protect murdoch
– that didnt work so
ad infinitum]
what is the most scariest is that there is no logic to the wikihater crowd
just illogical bleatings
Diogenes@3756
And some of us come here for a short while and end up staying.
I heard just the other day that Rod Marsh is now a Croweater. Seems like a lot of cricketers choose to live here after retirement which is quite an endorsement given that they’ve experienced a lot more of the world than most.
Morewest, Dio,
When I went for Job interviews in Adelaide I was always asked “Are you a Crows or Port supporter?”
Gusface@3759
I’m not sure I have a problem with Assange being charged if a law has been broken, provided every media owner, publisher, journalist and newsreader that has also published/aired the leaked cables is standing in the dock with him.
[assange was releasing cocktail party talks to discredit the ALP, wikileaks was a massive false flag to somehow protect murdoch]
It always boils down to some whacky conspiracy theory in the end.
[Laurie Oakes, with his stupid comments, has started to believe his own PR. I used to respect his commentary, largely because he was smart enought to stay above the fray. I hope to god he was just a victim of too much Kool Aid, because if not the standard of journalism in this country has totally gone down the krapper.]
As I said yesterday, Laurie is no longer a political journalist, he is a political player.
ltep
some conspiracy’s arent wacky cos they stand the logic test
Space Kidette@3765
And your point is? 😉
PS: Tip: nine times out of ten “Crows” is the right answer. Naming an interstate team never is.
[An awful lot of good people leave SA. ]
Dio – a lot still there and if it hadn’t been that our kids are so settled here we might have gone back permanently when we retired. Rellies and lifelong friends means we go back quite often. That being said, we live in a magnificent area of this country and it would be hard to leave it.
[I’m not sure I have a problem with Assange being charged if a law has been broken, provided every media owner, publisher, journalist and newsreader that has also published/aired the leaked cables is standing in the dock with him.]
measure for measure?
or some leakers are a bit purer than others?
[’m not sure I have a problem with Assange being charged if a law has been broken, provided every media owner, publisher, journalist and newsreader that has also published/aired the leaked cables is standing in the dock with him.]
One thing that McClelland and those others in Labor who seem to advocate charging Assange might want to consider, in fact, is that if they reckon the media is against them at present they can’t imagine what it will be like if such charges are laid.
Journalists see leaks as their lifeblood. They won’t see this as simply a matter of an attack on a fringe individual with a heightened sense of his own importance. They will see it as a heavy handed attack on the Fourth Estate as a whole. You can already see this view developing in the output of ALL the major media players. It will make for a very difficult relationship indeed with the media for Labor over the months ahead if some senior Labor identities continue to pursue such matters.
Rudd and Shorten got it right with their responses. They should make very sure the McClellands in the party get pulled into line as a matter of urgent priority.
morewest,
I wish I had known that before I went for those interviews! 😉
[Why has NO journo asked the Libs directly if they had given similar briefings
about the internal machinations within the liberal party, oh, say around the time of the APEC meeting in Sydney in mid 2007 just before the election.]
dave – They won’t ask because they already know the answer. Aoart from Humphries admitting he used to speak to the US about the Libs the rest of them are strangely quiet but I’m not betting on Dorling to write anything about them. There must be some doozies about the 07 APEC meeting and Howard’s Ministers’ conflab to get rid of him in the middle of it.
I wonder what was said about the Chaser’s great stunt.
morning bludgers
Just finished reading The Age re Rudd Wikileaks and Afghanistan. Fairfax are trying so damn hard to frame it as something extremely negative and damaging. From my point of view, I actually thought Rudd’s position was fair enough. I wish Fairfax would just give up this relentless attack on Rudd. There are hundreds of cables out there. They are cherry picking. Their agenda is so transparent, and I have lost all respect for this paper. Hell, The Murdoch rag has played this more sensibly, and that is saying something!!
BB
The attack on Labor has been relentless by the media. You say they deserve to lose govt. What are they to do under the circumstances? I don’t see how at the moment.
The very same people who are accusing the PM of jumping the gun regarding her statements concerning the illegality of actions by Assange and Wikileaks are now condemning her for doing deals with the US and stating that she will “…turn him over to the USA without reference whatsoever to what the chage may be.. ”
At this point in time no one here or in the MSM can state that he has not committed a offence either under Australian law (unlikely I admit) or US law. Others are condemning the Swedish women as being part of some conspricacy without yet knowing what the charges are. Talk about taking the high moral ground when it suits you.
I have stated numerous times I am against the leaking of the documentation and the actions of Wikileak for a number of reasons but I will not accuse anyone of any offence or act of stupidity until all the evidence is known.
Others who stand there as judge and jury as to the actions of the PM while defending Assange may want to take a breath and look at their own attitudes.
Play dirty for once.
and other thing, there is and will be stuff re the coalition. Will the media deal with it? Who knows. I have yet to see the media call out Howard for the Iraq debacle. When Wilkie announced his support for a Labor govt., he called out Howard re Iraq. I did not see the media take that issue and run with it. There was just a cursory mention, and it was over. I can’t think of anything in the last 20 years, that was more disgraceful than going into Iraq with the US, based on a blatant lie. Thousands of people dead and a country ruined. Now that was a huge tragedy and an injustice, but what do we get by our media, pink batts and boats, and now this drivel re wikileaks which mean absolutely nothing.
BB
I am certain that playing dirty will not work for Labor at all. They are under seize by the media and the opposition. Any deviation by Labor and they are toast.
BK
Indeed!
Good Morning, Bludgers!
Between bouts of hanging out washing on what BOM says will be the last fine day for a week, I eyeballed yesterday’s posts – to find myself decades back in the 60’s and 70’s smoky pubs, uni refecs, staff rooms etc reliving Vietnam War’s protest marches, Watergate & Washington Post’s “Deep Throat” revelations, and NYT’s Pentagon Papers …
Same sort of conflict. Same sort of reactions. Same sort of support, attack and sheer ignorance.
Inherently, there are only two difference between Washington Post’s & NYT’s Watergate revelations and Pentagon Papers – the leaks came via the Internet, and the current version of “Deep Throat” is an up-front Australian.
If anything’s changed in the Pentagon, CIA, et al, it’s that, in pursuit of its wars, and in its Foreign Affairs and Security Agencies, the USA is even more unethical, venal & downright incompetent than it was under “Tricky Dicky” Nixon, and capable of an even more offensive (all uses of the word) attack on whistle blowers in an attempt to hide from the world & the USA public just how unethical, venal & downright incompetent they are.
Wikileaks has revealed nothing that the USA diplomatic & security services did not make available to between 3,000,000 and 6,000,000 (they appear to be not sure which) people, via the Internet, many of them of the lowest rank of their respective services! And expected every one of those 3-6 million not to copy, email or otherwise cache and/or pass on that info!
3-6 MILLION, FFS! How much dumber & incompetent can a government get?
No wonder the world’s political & foreign affairs leaders – inc Kevin Rudd – are furious! They all know every foreign legation spies on everyone else – they always have, even during poet Geoffrey Chauser’s period as an English Envoy (AD 1378 ff). As Kev said, the problem in the whole affair isn’t Wikileaks, it’s the Americans who couldn’t keep their communiques secret!
The USA’s reactions, esp its leaning on Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and web servers is typical anti-whistleblower behaviour, as I’m sure Andrew Wilkie (Ind Tas) and others who’ve been in the same position will testify.
In any country & state/province etc which has Whistle-blower protection laws (inc in Oz) Julian Assange, the person/s who provided the documents and WikiLeaks should be covered by such legislation.
Google Whistleblower protection in Australia, USA, UK etc to find the geographic & legislative extent of coverage.
oops = seige
Bushfire
Thank you for an excellent summary. The whole thing is turning into a media beat-up (to sell more newspapers?). Very poor timing of the award to Laurie Oaks.
Victoria
Your points about the media are spot on. They only react to “bad news” about Labor, which is mostly fabricated and the headlines are completely deceptive.
OPT
Are we seeing the decline of the American Empire?
The wiki distrusters are like you but more consistent. We are paranoid about govt we are watchful we aren’t paranoid about wikileaks just increasingly distrustful. Govt in a democracy is our tool – wikileaks is a rogue operation – trivially maniulated by leakers on one side and media on the other. Yes govt does a lot of bad but q hella a lot of good. You wikilover crowd have embraced it like the messiah you have long waited for. Well to combine the bible and Monty python faith in the wikileaks sense is very much a belief in something yet to be seen and he isn’t the messiah he is just a naughty boy.
OzPol
Nice deja vue post.
[The USA’s reactions, esp its leaning on Visa, Mastercard, Paypal and web servers is typical anti-whistleblower behaviour, as I’m sure Andrew Wilkie (Ind Tas) and others who’ve been in the same position will testify.]
Can anyone find a protest over this in the Aussie media????
[wikileaks is a rogue operation ]
what is a non-rogue operation?
[ You wikilover crowd have embraced it like the messiah you have long waited for.]
nice hagiography
So they can’t play nice and win, and they can’t play dirty and win.
May as well not play at all. Right?
[You wikilover crowd have embraced it like the messiah you have long waited for.]
I can’t see anyone here really “embracing it like the messiah”, WWP.
Instead I see a lot of people with different shades of opinion, and even with a substantial amount of hesitation about the pros and cons of the matter . Heck there are even people indicating that their views are changing somewhat as the situation unfolds! Unheard of on PB! 😉
If my assumption is correct, and these are the first in a scenario of progressively negative leaks, how much damage could the ALP Government be in compared to that of the Howard war embroiled cabinet? The ALP inherited that shite from the Fibs.
There just can’t be that much in the way of damaging information re: ALP because all the issues were secondary to the solving of the GFC isssues. And we come out of the GFC smelling like roses and the envy of the economic world.
No amount of bullet dodging will excuse the crap of the Howard years because even if the papers choose not to run it, wikileaks will stilll have the source documents and the blogosphere will take care of the rest.
Bushfire
get the msms fighting each other- oh and light a cracker under their collective arses
wikileaks seems to be doing that
Bookmark Grog’s last post for holiday reading – lots to consider and enjoy all over again
Happy holidays, Grog
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com/2010/12/time-for-break.html
Marky Marky @ 3414
[ The American ambassador and other government officials saw Rudd as arrogant and a control freak during his term, interesting is it not that the key provider of informatin to America is Mark Arbib and he was the key man who plotted Rudds’ downfall. Any possible link here between Arbib, America and Rudds’ downfall and who was calling the shots?
]
-Of course the US government acted through Arbib to get rid of Rudd, Marky. Just as they used John Kerr to dismiss Whitlam. They took over the contract for the removal of Australian Prime Ministers from the Chinese, post-Holt. ;P
If the Labor nasties have to go under cover then so be it. The best way to leak against the Libs is to get one of their own to do it, or make it seem that way. The media have been talking to Labor rats in the ranks for years now. Time for some Lib rats to come out.
[
I can’t see anyone here really “embracing it like the messiah”, WWP
]
I’ve seen people on Poll Bludger declare Assange a hero, claim he is the Nelson Mandela of the 21st century and say he should be getting the Nobel Peace Prize!
Most of the discussion revolves around how this government has responded rather than the content of the leaks. Says it all really.
[If my assumption is correct, and these are the first in a scenario of progressively negative leaks, how much damage could the ALP Government be in compared to that of the Howard war embroiled cabinet? The ALP inherited that shite from the Fibs. ]
And the Fibs had eleven years for the bad karma to accumulate.
madcyril
you misseed Time person of the year
😉
[ “Despite what is claimed, the information so far released, though classified, has caused no known harm to any individual, but it has caused plenty of embarrassment to our government.”
Congressman Ron Paul on the house floor today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nxPB9yy7IJ4&feature=player_embedded
]
Cuppa,
I am looking forward to the Wikileaks for the Howard years! Especially stuff about the Bush/Howard Bromance – wonder what they yanks really thought of the Rat! 😈