Victorian election live

12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.

11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we’re likely to get tonight in a significant seat.

11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor’s lead from 773 to 804.

11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor’s lead from 741 to 719.

11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.

11.09pm. Hadn’t heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.

10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.

10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn’t have, and it’s increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.

10.46pm. Actually, the VEC’s figures from Macedon aren’t more advanced than the ABC’s, they’re just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I’ve no idea why the discrepancy.

10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).

10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.

10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.

10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – “maybe not even in the doubtful column”.

10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.

10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis’s – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.

10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.

10.03pm. David Davis’s latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.

9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:

On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I’m on the verge of calling it for Labor.

9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC’s figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.

9.48pm. Labor confirms it won’t concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.

9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he’s only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.

9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.

9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.

9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.

9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.

9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.

8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.

8.51pm. Antony can’t see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.

8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.

8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.

8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.

8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.

8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.

8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they’re behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.

8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.

8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.

8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they’ll do better on late counting you wouldn’t be giving it away.

8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.

8.23pm. Labor can’t afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.

8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.

8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.

8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.

8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.

8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.

8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.

8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.

8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!

8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.

8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer’s not giving it.

8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.

8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …

7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn’t quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.

7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.

7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.

7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.

7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.

7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.

7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven’t updated yet.

7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.

7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.

7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you’d need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.

7.44pm. I’m counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.

7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.

7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.

7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.

7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.

7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.

7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.

7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely “ahead” in Yan Yean.

7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.

7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.

7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.

7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning’s polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.

7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.

7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.

7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren’t worried about a week ago.

7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it’s early days.

7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it’s a new booth, so we can’t match it.

6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.

6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.

6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn’t be so big.

6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.

6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.

6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn’t bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.

6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.

6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.

6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.

6.27pm. To brace yourself for what’s likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is “worried” about Justin Madden’s seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.

6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn’t already made that clear.

6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.

6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.

6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,694 comments on “Victorian election live”

  1. Thanks victoria

    I have a feeling you’re right, but Brumby has already put some other stuff in train. Just have to see how it works, I s’pose. There’s not much time for Baillieu to make changes before the coming fire season, anyway.

  2. vic,

    I’ll guarantee all promises will be under review because of the “We didn’t know that paradigm” used by all incoming Governments.

  3. [It’s the one to put all power lines under ground. Would cost 3 Brazillions to implement.]

    That’s 3 Brazillions more than they’re prepared to spend GG. “Spend” is to the Libs what “Save” is to a shoe-holic 😉

  4. Rod Hagen 1421

    Well spoken, Rod. We tend to focus too much on bagging and slagging each other instead of concentrating on the real enemy – yes, let’s call it the way it really is.

    There is nothing nice about red neck right wing conservatives, wherever they may be.

  5. 1450

    Middle Australia voters in th suburbs do not like Greens Party , which is why Abbott’s and Bailleau’s 2PP has gone up but Labors 2PP has dropped with th Public percwption echoed by abbott and Balleau of a Labor /Greens allianse

    You seem completely certain of that. Is middle Australia even aware of the Greens?

  6. Not sure about power lines.

    But in Brisbane I seem to remember that they are going to put in the NBN without recourse to the federal guvmint. Stuff the lot of them.

    They have hired some company that has it all figured out, they just put the NBN (local to Brissy) through the sewage system.

    Saves a Gazillion (should that be a Brazilian?) dollars, (Pacific Pesos or greenbacks as necessary. ) No need for digging up nature strips, the little shit covered robots just go about their business and put the whole infrastructure in.

  7. netvegetable
    Posted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    1450

    Middle Australia voters in th suburbs do not like Greens Party , which is why Abbott’s and Bailleau’s 2PP has gone up but Labors 2PP has dropped with th Public percwption echoed by abbott and Balleau of a Labor /Greens allianse

    “Is middle Australia even aware of the Greens?”

    you may luv living as a Vegetable , but middle oz voters watch TV News and read newspapers seeing a 3rd level important range of issues being th Greens Agenda (on eufenasia , gay marriage , afganistan) which Abbott (and Balleau remind them is Labor being influensed by th Labor/Greens allianse , whilst they wonder why vip working peoples issues to most australians instead is not addressed It is is mostly why Tony Abbott whilst so incompetant is STILL 50/50 2PP with Julia

  8. Did anyone else watching Seven News earlier tonight notice that Kevin Rudd was featured in almost all their lead stories?
    Very interesting! 😉
    It’s almost as if he’s still PM.

  9. Mumble on the Victorian election outcome

    [
    A good result for Julia Gillard

    …..

    Some federal Liberals will take heart. No one will remember the Howard years included Coalition losses in every state and territory, mostly big ones.

    But overall this is actually a good result for Julia Gillard and a bad one for Tony Abbott. At the next federal election the two biggest states will have no unpopular ALP governments.

    The real Reasons are mainly 11 years in power and an acceptable opposition. And those generic ones anticipated back in September here. Some things are meant to be and are beyond trying to explain. Electoral gravity.

    The fact that the polls narrowed during the campaign doesn’t mean the campaign caused it. Most of it was going to happen when people’s minds were focussed.

    Because the Coalition has done well, the Greens preference decision is seen as clever, which makes it more likely to be taken up in other jurisdictions. I’m not as confident as some of Adam Bandt’s ability to withstand unfriendly Liberal how to vote cards.

    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/a_good_result_for_federal_labor/

  10. [ I thought Ballieu stated on several occasions that they would adopt all recommendations by the Royal Commission bar one? I stand to be corrected.

    Which one were they not prepared to adopt?]

    They adopted in full or in part all of the recommendations except the one about buyback of some houses.

  11. Youse guys have no class.

    No shit, this is a goer.

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/technology/plan-for-high-speed-broadband-in-brisbane-to-beat-nbn-by-eight-years/story-e6frep1o-1225938956021

    [Plan for high-speed broadband in Brisbane to beat NBN by eight years

    * by Paddy Hintz
    * From: The Courier-Mail
    * October 15, 2010 12:00AM

    CONSUMER organisations have warned of the “devil in the detail” after Brisbane City Council stole a march on the National Broadband Network yesterday by announcing its own system.

    The proposal could bring very fast broadband to Brisbane up to eight years earlier than the NBN.

    The company involved, i3 Asia Pacific, claimed its platform, to be delivered through waste water and sewerage pipes, was the cheapest delivery system in the world and would not involve extra costs for householders.

    Australian Communications Consumer Action Network chief executive Teresa Corbin said the deal between i3 Asia Pacific and the council appeared to be a huge win for Brisbane residents.

    “It does look like a win for consumers because Brisbane residents are going to get superfast broadband a whole lot earlier,” Ms Corbin said.

    “Obviously, we would need to see it all roll out to see what’s in the detail and how the deal works out.”

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

    Work on a fibre-to-the-home network will begin early next year, with the four-year project estimated to cost the company $600 million.

    The i3 Group’s chief executive, Elfred Thomas, said the NBN should concentrate on providing very fast broadband to rural areas, where it would need government support to make that viable.

    “We’re concentrating on an open-access model in the inner-city areas,” he said.

    Mr Thomas said his company would charge internet service providers and other providers a single wholesale fee.

    He hoped yesterday’s announcement of the delivery system, already used in Bournemouth in the UK, would spark interest from other councils.

    Ms Corbin said offering a single set fee to retailers would create more competition.

    “That’s going to mean there will be a level playing field for new services to consumers to be innovative, and that providers (could) charge consumers competitive rates,” she said.

    Lord Mayor Campbell Newman said that while council would consider charging i3 an access fee to use its sewerage pipes, no decision had been made on that.

    “This is all about getting Brisbane residents access to superfast broadband internet as soon as possible, not making money,” Cr Newman said.]

  12. updated count shows still 3 othr ALP seats close , Labor ahead in all Macedon 69 , Eltham 325 and Ballarat east 388 whilst Monbulk and Narre North 1022 and 1024

    handy to be ALP sitting member cme next time , plus keep govt held account with close lower house diff

  13. [and one key reason for Balleau’s win over Labor in vic]

    Oh for goodness sake, Ron.

    There are now, what? About 10 of the 43 members of the ALP in the Victorian lower house who were NOT dependent on at least some Green’s prefs for their re-election this time around? I suggest you go and discuss the matter with the other 33 members and see if they would be happy to try to do without them next time.

    Instead of Labor blaming the Greens for this loss, or the Greens blaming Labor for their own failing to better counter the “extremist” nonsense that was peddled about them, both parties need to sit down and take a good hard look at ways of maximising their effectiveness in future. Spending all the time fighting each other simply damages their ability to compete effectively with the coalition.

  14. 1467

    you may luv living as a Vegetable , but middle oz voters watch TV News and read newspapers seeing a 3rd level important range of issues being th Greens Agenda (on eufenasia , gay marriage , afganistan) ……

    Actually the polls I’ve seen show that the majority of Australians oppose our ‘role’ in Afghanistan. So I’d say the Greens are more in sync with middle Australia on that issue, or at least not too far out.

    So is it the Greens positions on gay marriage and euthenasia that has the “middle Australia” spooked?

  15. Rod H
    I’m afraid I find Ron impossible to understand and very frustrating. I don’t know which bits are quotes and which are his own, and took weeks even to understand that he apparently hates Greens. To me, he’s more irritating than Truthy.
    Congrats for continuing a dialogue with him.

  16. GG, you are so obsessed with your crusade that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I, for one, am not so sold on the idea of seeing a Coalition government in Victoria for the next decade or more simply so you, and others of a similar bent, can pursue it!

  17. @don/1473,

    It’s the most stupidest idea ever, i3 sewer network, it would have to compete with NBN and other existing telco’s, it would have no customer base, and best of all, it’s state funded!

  18. Ron

    If Afghanistan and gay marriage are examples of why “middle Australia” doesn’t like the Greens, why are a majority of people in favor of the Greens policies on them?

  19. GG

    Could I take you up on this? If you’re talking about members of the Labor Party, you’re probably right. But there is a floating population of other voters who have a great sympathy with some Green values, and some green values..

  20. [I can assure you that no one in Labor harbours any goodwill to the Greens.]

    You don’t even have to “harbor goodwill” for each other, GG, though I know enough people on both sides of the “divide” to know that you are talking through your hat. You simply have to start operating in a rational fashion that serves your actually quite extensive mutual interests far better than the current catfighting.

  21. [Rod,

    Labor is not Greens. Deal with this fact.

    I can assure you that no one in Labor harbours any goodwill to the Greens.]

    Rod, I don’t wish to add fuel to the fire, but to prove GG’s point, yesterday at the booth the Green’s guy said this to me: “we don’t care who gets in – as long as we can get 5 seats we’ll work with either side”.

    As a Labor supporter, I felt like giving him $50 for his time talking to me. You know, like a prostitute… in the end they don’t care who they f-over, as long as they get what they want out of it.

  22. I keep hearing that Labor’s attack on the Greens lost them the election, personally I think this is a myth.

    For me, it is Labor’s historic refusal to not attack the greens that are causing the ALP problems all around Australia. The ALP keep thinking that Green preferences will go back to the ALP, so they do not have to worry about it.

    That is why the Greens are now a party that regularly polls 10% of the vote. The problem for the ALP is the bigger the Greens gets, the more the ALP have to rely on them and the more swinging voters will look at Greens policies and move away from the ALP, I think this is what is happening all around Australia, in that the ALP is losing votes to the Greens on the left, which scares their supporters on the right, who moves their votes to the coalition, that is why the ALP primary vote is on historically low level in almost every state in Australia and federally

    What the Liberals did was highlighted the Green-ALP alliance are renounced it, then all the swinging voters went to the Liberals.

    The other problems I see for the ALP is that the more voters they lose to the greens, the less people votes for them, the problem is that if the ALP government is a bad one, or antagonised a lot of voters (see1999), a person, who has been voting for the Greens are more likely to move their vote to the Coalition, while a person who always vote the ALP, would have more emotional investment on the ALP. By losing votes to the Greens, they make it more likely for the votes to eventually go to the Liberals, whichj can cause big swings like the ones we are seeing

    It will be interesting to see how the ALP tackles its biggest problem at the moment

  23. [georgePosted Sunday, November 28, 2010 at 9:22 pm | PermalinkRod,
    Labor is not Greens. Deal with this fact.
    I can assure you that no one in Labor harbours any goodwill to the Greens.
    Rod, I don’t wish to add fuel to the fire, but to prove GG’s point, yesterday at the booth the Green’s guy said this to me: “we don’t care who gets in – as long as we can get 5 seats we’ll work with either side”.
    As a Labor supporter, I felt like giving him $50 for his time talking to me. You know, like a prostitute… in the end they don’t care who they f-over, as long as they get what they want out of it.
    ]

    Just ask Adele Carles and the good people of Fremantle 🙂

  24. SO

    You are a cruel, cruel man.

    BTW Since you know about filmsand festivals, did you know that Grog worked for the Feds in the film area of the Fed Arts Dept.

  25. 1493

    The problem for the ALP is the bigger the Greens gets, the more the ALP have to rely on them and the more swinging voters will look at Greens policies and move away from the ALP ……

    I want to know what those policies are.

  26. netvegetable

    most people of the world also did not think they should do something about Adolf Hitler from 1930 to 1938, they did not want to get their hands dirty and wanted to appease HItler, thinking he will just stop.

    Most Americans were against going to war with Germany in 1941 still, when Germany were murdering millions of people.

    There is always a big difference between doing the right thing, or pretending to do the popular thing, like the Greens are doing

  27. dovif well ignoring the wider debate about Afghanistan, I want to know what Green policies are supposedly driving swinging voters against the ALP.

Comments are closed.