Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes informs us that tonight’s Newspoll has the Coalition opening a 52-48 lead. More to follow.

UPDATE: Matthew Franklin of The Australian reports “Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy said tonight that Labor had suffered a six-point plunge in primary support outside cities”, prompting speculation the fall has been driven by the Murray-Darling Basin report. Primary votes are apparently little changed on the previous Newspoll survey, which had Labor at 35 per cent, the Coalition at 42 per cent and the Greens at 14 per cent – but they must have changed at least some to have wrought a two-point shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred. No doubt GhostWhoVotes will reveal all shortly.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full results here. Labor’s primary vote is down two to a new low of 33 per cent, the Coalition is up one to 43 per cent and the Greens are steady on 14 per cent. The move is reflected on personal ratings, with Julia Gillard down four on approval to 44 per cent and up four on disapproval to 37 per cent, and Tony Abbott up two on approval to 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 46 per cent. However, Gillard has held even on preferred prime minister with a lead of 53-32, with both leaders up a point on last time.

UPDATE 3: James J notes in comments that this is Labor’s lowest primary vote since 3-5 December 2004, equal lowest since 20-22 August 1993, and second lowest since Newspoll began in 1985.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,928 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  6. b_g

    Have you seen the AFR’s editorial cartoon today? A beach going Joe Hockey, attired only in goggles, snorkel and pink tutu; alas the water is only knee deep.

    Not a good sight for morning team tim tams

  7. Scott Morrison talking to Marius Benson on Newsradio, just before 9am.

    wtte

    MB: Do you think the PM is doing well on her first overseas trip?

    SM: It is the job of the PM to represent us. She has done nothing to stop the boats.

  8. An interesting story trying to pin down which MPs are for and against abortion law reform in Queensland. Sure enough, quite a few Labor MPs are against their own party policy (i.e. they don’t want to change the law, even though party policy is to decriminalise abortion). Hypocracy, or a genuine attempt to pander to the religeous vote? Speaking of which, the accompanying on-line poll has 87% in support of change.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/we-ask-they-tell-what-qld-mps-think-of-abortion-20101031-1790b.html#poll

  10. [Hypocracy, or a genuine attempt to pander to the religeous vote?]
    Or how about the third option, they genuinely don’t like abortion.

  11. [Laocoon
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 9:57 am | Permalink
    b_g

    Have you seen the AFR’s editorial cartoon today? A beach going Joe Hockey, attired only in goggles, snorkel and pink tutu; alas the water is only knee deep.

    Not a good sight for morning team tim tams]

    Alas Joe has got a hammering by the financial intelligentsia. But his speech turned things around and at least has got support from some more independent commentators (cf the ones hired by banks).

    He has pretty much ubiquitous support from the wider community (even though they have no idea what he is calling for).

    I think his rhetoric on interest rates is just that. But his call to keep an eye on banks being to risky (being tax-payer backed) is good. ANd the ANZ essentially outed themselves as being the riskiest. The Lehman Bros of Oz with their overblown criticism of Hockey.

    I think last week turned out to be Hockey’s ressurection. Much to my suprise.

  14. Kochie backs Joe.

    [
    Regulation needed to pop the bank profit bubble David & Libby Koch

    THERE is a fine line between strong banks and creating a gravy train where they can earn windfall profits at the expense of customers.

    That’s why we think shadow treasurer Joe Hockey makes a valid point in wanting an inquiry into the banking system to ensure banks aren’t gouging customers and taking advantage of their privileged position.

    The banks are in a privileged position and it’s we taxpayers who have put them there. So it’s now time for the banks to repay the favour.]

    I wonder how Swan will respond. With bluster I presume.

    http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/pop-the-profit-bubble/story-e6frfmd9-1225945942362#ixzz13ytxPi3A

  15. Gary
    [Or how about the third option, they genuinely don’t like abortion.]
    Then why don’t they have the honesty to change party policy and stop pretending they have any intention of acting on the issue? That is why they are hypocrites.

    They can have any personal belief they like, but if they intend to act on it rather than their electorate’s wishes, they should have the honesty to say so before the election. Even then, I don’t see they have the right to impose it on the majority of the rest of us. The law change is not to make abortion compulsory, simply not a crime. Anti-abortion people are free to not have one. But they prefer to deny others their rights.

    It is once again evidence of what I have said before: most sitting Labor right MPs have social attitudes to the right of the majority of the community, and the majority of rank and file members of their own party.

  16. Brad Orgill (of BER inquiry fame, so close to Gillard) has co-authored an op-ed piece in the AFR on why the SGX ought not acquire the ASX.

    Probability of the takeover occuring continues to look shakey

  18. b_g
    [And the ANZ essentially outed themselves as being the riskiest. The Lehman Bros of Oz…]
    I don’t think that is a fair comparison at all

  19. The leak to the Tele about the supposed wandering Minister is bizzare.

    The article suggested that every MP in the party knew about it. But later all the jounos on Insiders suggested they had never heard of it, and could only guess at who it could be.

    I can’t imagine that dozens of MPs would know something scandalous and the journos would not know.

  20. [I don’t think that is a fair comparison at all]

    Are they not the one of the big four seeking to take on the most risk though expansion into asia?

    Their rhetoric suggests a high level of aggression and risk-taking.

  21. Laocoon.

    [ANZ puts $250m into Shanghai bank capital raising

    ANZ says it will invest an additional $250 million in Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank as part of the Chinese lender’s capital raising.
    ANZ is looking to boost ties with the group as it pushes ahead with expansion in China.

    The lender said in addition to taking up its pro rata allocation in the capital raising, it will also increase its stake in SRCB to 20 per cent from 19.9 per cent, the maximum allowed by China.

    “ANZ’s participation in SRCB’s capital raising reflects our confidence in the partnership and our long term commitment to growing our presence in China,” ANZ’s Asia head, Alex Thursby, said.

    “With its strong economic growth, China is a key part of ANZ’s super regional bank aspiration.”

    ANZ, which aims to generate 20 per cent of its earnings from Asia by 2012, said it is exploring further areas for business co-operation with SRBC, particularly in trade finance and markets]

  24. b_g
    From wiki:
    [Lehman borrowed significant amounts to fund its investing in the years leading to its bankruptcy in 2008, a process known as leveraging or gearing. A significant portion of this investing was in housing-related assets, making it vulnerable to a downturn in that market. One measure of this risk-taking was its leverage ratio, a measure of the ratio of assets to owners equity, which increased from approximately 24:1 in 2003 to 31:1 by 2007. While generating tremendous profits during the boom, this vulnerable position meant that just a 3-4% decline in the value of its assets would entirely eliminate its book value or equity. Investment banks such as Lehman were not subject to the same regulations applied to depository banks to restrict their risk-taking.]

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brothers_bankruptcy

  25. Good morning blue-green.

    More machinations within the Liberal party. As I predicted, Hockey gets the tick of approval from the wider public for bashing the banks policy, while Tone tries on some policy development of his own and falls flat. How does this improve Hockey’s position with his colleagues? Some were reportedly very critical last week.

  27. ABC radio is reporting that the ABC will be opening a news bureau in Afghanistan. Hope they send the entire Insiders crew to staff it, complete with the News Ltd ratbags.

  28. my say: If I was home in time I didn’t mind catching the 5pm news. PBers always noted that Paul Bongiorno gave fair coverage of the government in their news. I suppose that will end now with Packer and Murdoch on the Board.

  29. [confessions
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 10:37 am | Permalink
    Good morning blue-green.

    More machinations within the Liberal party. As I predicted, Hockey gets the tick of approval from the wider public for bashing the banks policy, while Tone tries on some policy development of his own and falls flat. How does this improve Hockey’s position with his colleagues? Some were reportedly very critical last week.]

    Yep. Abbott’s flat tax idea lasted about three seconds. It only took that long to realise that 60% of Australians would be worse off. 😆

    Economic policy is not his strong suit.

    I like the coalition more at the moment. They seem freer to put forward policy ideas

  30. In normal times Abbott/Hockey’s u-turn on the flat tax would be regarded as a spectacular policy back flip which shows the Opposition is actually not even fit for Opposition.
    The Opposition’s tactics remind me of the french military doctrine prior to, and during the early years of, WW1.
    Its basic notion was elan coupled with attaque a l’outrance. The idea was that you attacked, attacked, attacked, regardless and victory would be yours.
    IMHO, the relentless attack at all costs has worked on several battlefields: the boats, the banks, the batts and the BER.
    The flat tax attack, OTOH, has the whiff of Verdun about it.

  35. [And the ANZ essentially outed themselves as being the riskiest. The Lehman Bros of Oz…

    I don’t think that is a fair comparison at all]
    I agree that neither ANZ, nor any of the other Australian big banks, is comparable to Lehmans. They do not take as many risks, do not design deliberately faulty products (CDOs), have protected their shareholders funds vastly better, and have competent lending standards. In short, they are well run.

    Where banks here are vulnerable to criticism is the opposite problem – too much monopoly power being used to squeeze customers. They are skilled and know what they are doing with that power to extract fees, but it is still not in the interests of the Australian economy as a whole, because increased bank fee income represents an increased cost to business and consumers. Increased bank fees contribute to inflation.

    Also, while I have said banks here are well run, that is only because they have had to be. Wherever Aussie banks have been allowed to invest outside our regulatory environment (eg NAB Homeside lending in USA, UK investments) they have done badly. So our banks are good, but they shouldn’t kid themselves. They are not world players.

    The real concern with the NAZ satatement, is that they kid themselves current record profit levels can remain in the long term. False.

  36. O for the days when tv channels where tv channels and it wasnt all about the people behind the camera,
    Or am i a candidate for the show ‘ grumby old woman”. was it always like this, and i was to busy working to notice.
    but those days there was no morning shows, to drive one crazy.
    I remember when morning Tv first started it was such a novelty but not any more.

    The dose of giggling at anything and everything, is something i just cannot be bothered with now, perhaps i am not a morning person.

    But Chanel 10 will they have an early morning program now, who will scream at us from the screen and to make matters worse now there seems to be habit from some of the celebraties,of virtually puting their face to the camera so they think they are in our lounge room, kitchen or study..
    No fed up had enough.
    May be just may be one day we will just do what we should of done years ago, turn the dam thing off and forget there is such a thing as tv

  37. Confessions,

    that’s a great piece. Much more measured that Sheridan’s US inspired fantasy about sentate interrogrations of defence chiefs on operational matters. But some attention on the long term strategy would be wonderful; absolutely exceptional.

    On sharing assets, I am sure we could easily do so with NZ, but that would not add much for us. I don’t think Australia is quite ready for sharing a navy with Indon.

    And as for buying versus making. I don’t have much of a view except that with the Australian dollar at a record high it would make sense. I don’t have a view on whether what is on the market is suitable for waht we need or whether we need to specially make it ourself. I am not a Australian Defence Industry protectionist like most MPs.

  38. [I like the coalition more at the moment. They seem freer to put forward policy ideas]

    Yes, I suppose that’s one way of looking at them. 😆

  39. z

    [I read recently (and am sure Diog will chip in on this if I’m wrong) that some people have a minor disfunction in the brain which basically means that, although they recognise that a situation is dangerous and they really should be afraid, they lack the emotional response that goes with it.]

    That is a characteristic of people with autism. Even if all the kids around them are screaming about the snake, they will remain unmoved.

  40. [“This very night, before the rooster crows, you will disown me three times.” But Peter declared, “Even if I have to die with you, I will never disown you.” And all the other disciples said the same.]
    Once…
    [Peter sat down with them. A servant girl saw him seated there in the firelight. She looked closely at him and said, “This man was with him.” But he denied it. “Woman, I don’t know him,” he said.]
    [QUESTION:
    Do you support his proposals?
    TONY ABBOTT:
    I think it’s very important that we expose the bluster of this Government. I think it’s very important that we expose the fact that under the Howard/Costello Government the banks never did increase interest rates in advance of the Reserve Bank. Now they do it all the time and that just goes to show the weakness and bluster of Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan.]
    Twice…
    [When the servant girl saw him there, she said again to those standing around, “This fellow is one of them.” Again he denied it. ]
    [QUESTION:
    But do you support Mr Hockey’s nine point plan?
    TONY ABBOTT:
    I think it’s very important, very, very important, that we expose the weakness and the bluster of this Government when it comes to the banks and when it comes to increasing interest rates which are putting pressure on small business.]
    Three time…
    [After a little while, those standing there went up to Peter and said, “Surely you are one of them, for your accent gives you away.” Then he began to call down curses on himself and he swore to them, “I don’t know the man!” Immediately a rooster crowed. Then Peter remembered the word Jesus had spoken: “Before the rooster crows, you will disown me three times.” And he went outside and wept bitterly.]
    [QUESTION:
    What would you do to stop banks increasing interest rates, Mr Abbott?
    TONY ABBOTT:
    Look, I’ve dealt with that issue. If there are other questions, I’ll have other questions.]

  41. [confessions
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 10:23 am | Permalink
    The Ten Network has offered media moguls James Packer and Lachlan Murdoch seats on its board.

    Stand by for Ch10 to become more like Ch9 and News ltd.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/01/3053443.htm%5D

    i agree Paul Bongiorno is so easy to listen to does not pontificate and just says it like it is.

    As i have said it is time to revolt turn off their tv. but who would listen. Not many i would say. We where all told that the new revolution in tv the digital age would be amazing, the viewing would be spectacular we where conned of course.
    Just more tv chanels and more rubbish to sift through.
    Stephen Fry to me has become one of the last good doco makers, the current one is very good, his quite unassuming voice and good manners makes you enjoy sitting there admiring what he is admiring and enjoying his company.

    I heard a comment on ,’ News radio” must say thats the first time i have turned it on in months.
    the comment was from an English broadcaster who was discussing the legend behind the Halloween, the Celtic version, saying that its something to do with nature and autumn changing to winter and the darker restful time.
    he said wtte, that in a changing society when people are fed up being told how to think and feel it may be a chance to return to nature, as the solstice celebration { Halloween} is all about mother earth.
    You never know that would you now that the americans have taken it over.

  42. [4840 blue_green
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 10:59 am | Permalink
    “This very night, before the rooster crows, you will disown me three times.” But Peter declared, “Even if I have to die with you, I will never disown you.” And all the other disciples said the same.]

    what a wonderful way to explain all this,

  44. b_g
    The really cool thing about that analogy of the cock crowing, is that Abbott himself surely would have recognised that himself too, once he read the media reports on being asked 3 times 😀

  48. Blue_green
    You had a go at Swan about Sloppy receiving support from Kochie.
    Sloppy took one sentence out of the report,(Sloppy’s words)fine detail he said that was buried & he misconstrued it. Built his whole case on it ignoring the bulk of the report. Same as we are witnessing with the flat tax rate. Didn’t bother to read & comprehend the report in its entirety.
    Point is bg, the sensible points in Sloppys attack are already being looked at by Swan. They have been since the report came in.
    Sloppy backpeddled on his original idea which was designed to trump Swan only to do full circle and advocate what Swan was in the process of doing anyway.

  49. I look forward to the inevitable opposition claims of a snub 😆

    [
    Malaysia’s prime minister has cancelled a meeting with Prime Minister Julia Gillard because he has fallen ill with chicken pox.

    Prime Minister Najib Razak was scheduled to meet Ms Gillard in Kuala Lumpur on Monday morning but took ill over the weekend.

    “The prime minister is ill and the doctors have advised him to cancel all meetings and appointments,” Mr Najib’s spokesman Tengku Sharifuddin Tengku Ahmad said.

    Advertisement: Story continues below Ms Gillard is now expected to meet with Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin instead.

    ]

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/malaysian-pm-cancels-gillard-appointment-20101101-179j6.html

  50. [4846 blue_green
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 11:10 am | Permalink
    Laocoon

    I imagine Abbott would be happy to be seen as Peter… But Hockey as Jesus]

    thats ok the piece was so beautiful. if only
    to tell you the truth i was not putting their faces in my mind as i read it, it was the old biblical figures of my old fashioned picture bibles that where coming to mind.

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