Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes informs us that tonight’s Newspoll has the Coalition opening a 52-48 lead. More to follow.

UPDATE: Matthew Franklin of The Australian reports “Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy said tonight that Labor had suffered a six-point plunge in primary support outside cities”, prompting speculation the fall has been driven by the Murray-Darling Basin report. Primary votes are apparently little changed on the previous Newspoll survey, which had Labor at 35 per cent, the Coalition at 42 per cent and the Greens at 14 per cent – but they must have changed at least some to have wrought a two-point shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred. No doubt GhostWhoVotes will reveal all shortly.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full results here. Labor’s primary vote is down two to a new low of 33 per cent, the Coalition is up one to 43 per cent and the Greens are steady on 14 per cent. The move is reflected on personal ratings, with Julia Gillard down four on approval to 44 per cent and up four on disapproval to 37 per cent, and Tony Abbott up two on approval to 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 46 per cent. However, Gillard has held even on preferred prime minister with a lead of 53-32, with both leaders up a point on last time.

UPDATE 3: James J notes in comments that this is Labor’s lowest primary vote since 3-5 December 2004, equal lowest since 20-22 August 1993, and second lowest since Newspoll began in 1985.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,928 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 98 of 99
1 97 98 99
  1. [4849 madcyril
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 11:15 am | Permalink
    I look forward to the inevitable opposition claims of a snub]

    well before they say to much i have heard that Chicken Pox is raging at the moment amongst our youngsters and not so young.

    No to who ever may think of it. we did not catch from the PM ,.

  2. Swan’s problem isn’t so much that he blusters, but that he easily becomes defensive, which reinforces the appearance of blustering and that he isn’t across things.

  3. blue_green,

    In relation to the economy there is a couple of things about our economic situation I would like to put on the table.

    The U.S. banking sector faced difficulties because of their practice of buying and selling packaged high-risk securities, a practice which the Australian financial sector stayed away from. The inherent risk in these were realised and exploded in the face of the banks holding the hot potatoes at the time the GFS finally hit.

    The level of gouging, no syphoning, of moneys into the personal accounts of the high end banking fraternity (as salaries and bonuses) was simply outrageous – and more importantly, totally unsustainable.

    IMHO, Australia’s banking sector is replicating this poor business practice, but is not yet at the same level of danger due to the higher levels of regulation in Australia. As this plays out over time though, should it not be addressed, we will also face a similar problem.

    The U.S. economy threw money at their banks, but did not regulate for the required changes. So they will be doomed to repeat this aweful history at some time in the future.

    We backed our banks by providing guarantees. Smaller financial outlays and stopped any runs on bank deposits.

    One of the reasons the RBA, combined with the government, was able to ease our economy down, was due to the fact that our interest rates were at a level where we had room to move the rates down, the U.S. did not have that option.

    Another was the fact that we, the Australian population, were so stretched on the personal financial front, that households are extremely sensitive to any financial changes. Therefore the RBA movements were able to achieve the desired affects.

    If Australians were not up to the wazoo in personal financial debt, and we had sufficient savings, it is likely that effect of the RBA moves would have been dampened somewhat.

    When it came to stimulus, the Australian government, moved quickly. The U.S. government took far too long and as a result their stimulus had very limited success.

  4. [confessions
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 11:25 am | Permalink
    Swan’s problem isn’t so much that he blusters, but that he easily becomes defensive, which reinforces the appearance of blustering and that he isn’t across things.]

    Yet all I see is bluster. Even when he is given Dixers in question time to respond to. It comes out like poorly-rehearsed blustering drivel.

  5. blue_green
    IMHO the Coalition are suffering an identity crisis.
    They just don’t know how to govern for business & the community.
    That’s why their arguments are all over the shop.
    They just don’t know how to balance the two.
    Bluster is what we are getting from Sloppy.
    Remember this is the guy who, when asked on 7.30 report, pre-2007 election about who is most important, business or the workers, Sloppy answered, ‘Business of course’.

  6. blue-green: They all bluster in QT!

    Seriously though, I’ve watched Swan in press conferences and in interviews, and the way he has of answering people sounds defensive.

  7. Space Kiddette,

    There is not much I disagree with you there. I am not so much interested in the intersit rate isse, than the propped up banks taking overt risks backed by government support and Australians deposits.

    And the interesting thing about the Australian economy is that so much share ownership is now through Super Funds. We all own these companies but we are structurally disconnected from their control.

  8. Some more speculation on what the 7.30 report will be like next year

    [
    Fears of more casual, panel-heavy 7.30 Report without O’Brien

    THE ABC managing director has confirmed The 7.30 Report will have “a strong state-based element” next year.

    This, amid concerns within the public broadcaster that the flagship program will attempt to attract a younger audience after Kerry O’Brien’s departure.

    …..

    Some ABC news staff fear the success of Ten’s The 7PM Project, US news satire The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and, to a lesser extent, ABC News 24’s The Drum, may lead to a more casual, panel-heavy 7.30 Report next year.

    Sunderland confirmed that a group of senior staff was overseeing the review and reporting to Torney. “It’s on the basis that this is a big change so let’s take the opportunity to look at the host, format and how to do current affairs in

    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/fears-of-more-casual-panel-heavy-730-report-without-obrien/story-e6frg8zx-1225945876818

  9. [confessions
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 11:34 am | Permalink
    blue-green: They all bluster in QT!

    Seriously though, I’ve watched Swan in press conferences and in interviews, and the way he has of answering people sounds defensive.]

    I guess there is rhetoric (in the original sense)- that is, the skill of oratory to convince or persuade the audience. And then there is rhetoric (in the modern sense)- hollow words and bluster.

    I think pollies should do serious training in the former, to avoid to much of the latter.

  10. Dee,

    The coalition have been hi-jacked by both their marketing gurus and the media cycle. They are a marketing team who have a desired outcome (governing) but are in search of a product (policy and strategy).

    If it were my call, I would advise them to take time out, pull out of the media cycle, sit down as a party and nut out a strategy and develop some well thought out, deep policies for this Country.

    They can keep bleating about Tax and Banks and being anti-everything but who is really listening? I think largely, we hear their soundbites for five minutes, and then tune out, so even they are losing traction, and should they continue to do so no one will bother listening at all when they finally have something serious to add to the debate.

  11. bg
    [There is no point arguing with me about its OK for Swan to be all bluster, just because Joe Hockey may be.]
    Why is Swan all bluster? He stated that the reforms Sloppy is ‘now’ proposing were already being worked on by the government.
    A statement of fact is bluster?

  12. [Why is Swan all bluster? He stated that the reforms Sloppy is ‘now’ proposing were already being worked on by the government.
    A statement of fact is bluster?]

    I am confused. Is Hockey’s plan (thin as it may be) a thought bubble or things the government are considering?

  13. [madcyril
    Posted Monday, November 1, 2010 at 11:46 am | Permalink
    Perhaps they could poach Dave Hughes from the 7PM project
    ]

    As long as they don’t get that egotistical vet.

  14. This doens’t particularly sound like Swan is already doing some of Hockey’s suggestions
    [Now, if Mr Abbott can’t even bring himself to support a policy that has been announced by his Shadow Treasurer, his Shadow Treasurer might as well give the game away. The fact is that the Liberal Party’s economic credentials are at an all time low. It’s a pretty extraordinary event for a Shadow Treasurer to be criticised in the Shadow Cabinet by his predecessor. Only somebody I think as incompetent as Joe could be criticised by someone as incompetent as Julie Bishop and that’s where the debate in the Liberal Party has got to on economic policy. Because we have had a lot of anti-reform rhetoric over the last few weeks, and of course, that’s not good for our national debate. ]

  15. [BernardKeane | 1 hour 52 minutes ago
    Surely it’s a “debacle”? Where’s the ABC’s Online Investigations Unit to probe? RT @abcnews: Possible setback for Gillard’s Malaysia trip]

    Please tell me the ABC isn’t reporting the Malaysian PM thing as a “possible setback”!

  16. [I am confused. Is Hockey’s plan (thin as it may be) a thought bubble or things the government are considering?]

    Sloppy came out with some talk which alluded to re-regulating the banks & controlling interest rates. He said he came to this conclusion after sighting a sentence in a clause buried deep in the report.
    As the week progressed, he began backpeddling. What Swan was having a go at was that Sloppy did not read the report in its entirety. He took one piece & decided to run a populist campaign. The government was looking over the report & working towards some reforms.
    Sloppy then went full circle & decided to fly with some of the recommendations/conclusions of the report which the government was already looking at. As Swan said in parliament. With what Sloppy is putting forward ‘Now’ we are in agreement but this was not something emminating out of the Coalition. These were the conclusions of the report.
    Perhaps the problem here bg is that I cannot articulate it very well.

  17. b negative:

    actually, if you read that exerpt of Swannie’s, it doesn’t mean that the govt hasn’t considered or isn’t considering some of his suggestions.

    In fact, if it is, and Hockey is coming out as if this is a sudden message he’s had from heaven, the incompetence thing is simply reinforced – it shows he isn’t in touch with what’s being discussed.

    Swanny’s main thrust is the disunity on economic matters within the Lib party, not whether or not Hockey’s idea is good or bad.

  18. [Japan PM says Medvedev visit to Kurils ‘regrettable’

    Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s visit to a disputed islet in the Kuril Islands on Monday was “very regrettable”.

    “As Japan has kept its position that the four Northern Islands belong to the Japanese territory, the president’s visit there is very regrettable,” Kan told the parliament, referring to Medvedev’s arrival at one of the islands called Kunashiri in Japan Monday.]

    Oops.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/japan-pm-says-medvedev-visit-to-kurils-regrettable-20101101-179ng.html

  19. [Then why don’t they have the honesty to change party policy and stop pretending they have any intention of acting on the issue? That is why they are hypocrites.]
    Who says they haven’t been trying? They can’t change it without the numbers on board.

  20. How lazy are the Coalition! Poll Bludgers knew on the day Abbott released his thought bubble that a flat tax would make middle income-earners worse off. Yet it took them half-a-week to work it out. What have they been doing all these years in Opposition – slaving over the next three-syllable slogan? As someone said earlier, they’re not even fit to be in Opposition, let alone anything more. Lazy pricks.

  21. SMH
    AUSTRALIA is ready for gay farmer and former Big Brother contestant David Graham to become a politician, Queensland senator Barnaby Joyce says.

    Senator Joyce, the National Party leader in the Senate, believes Farmer Dave, as he was known on the TV show, would make a good candidate. “He’s got empathy, he’s got experience, he is authentic in his political beliefs in that he’s had a long involvement in politics,” he told the ABC’s Australian Story. 😀

  22. [As someone said earlier, they’re not even fit to be in Opposition, let alone anything more. Lazy pricks.]
    With a complicit lazy media!

  23. blue-green
    [And the interesting thing about the Australian economy is that so much share ownership is now through Super Funds. We all own these companies but we are structurally disconnected from their control.]
    Spot on! Share funds of various types now own over 70% of Australian shares. This is the primary weakness in our corproate governance. The only way you can influence their behavious is by taking your money out, which incurrs a financial penalty. You can’t vote out the fund managers, or censure their salary deals. Average returns to investors have barely exceeded inflation since 1997, as Stephen Long recently reported.

    Meanwhile, these guys get the power to decide who is on corporate boards. This is why the market for exec salaries is busted – shareholders don’t decide any more. It is all down to deals between fund managers, directors and execs. Some industry funds do try to stop it, but they rarely have the numbers.

    The best financial reform Labor could make would be to make share and super funds subject to the same regulations as corproations for conflicts of interest, reporting and votes on salary. Compliance could be optional, but you shouldn’t be eligible to take compulsory super contributions unless you agree. Why should super funds be subject to a much lower degree of control than corporations, when workers are forced to invest in them?

    Back to work.

  24. Blue_green,

    I guess they feel they can be as slack as they wish because:

    1) Whatever they do (or don’t do) the media will boost them all the way regardless.

    2) If you’re born to rule, why should you do the hard work of policy formation. Let Labor do that, the suckers.

    It’s just not good enough. In any other time the media would have torn an Opposition apart for arrogance, shallowness and dereliction of duty. Yet they get such a soft ride that they’re actually equal, if not ahead, in the polls. For this the whole country/democracy suffers, both directly and indirectly.

  25. [Since coming to office, Labor has conducted the most extensive overhaul of the Freedom of Information Act since its inception, and the first tranche of those changes takes effect today.

    But why is this needed? The fact is, in the decade before Labor came to office, a culture of concealment and suppression crept in, and the nation moved away from an attitude of disclosure, transparency and accountability.]

    Brendon O’Connor on changes the govt has made to FOI laws. I didn’t see this or the nurse practitioner stuff reported in the News ltd papers, however admittedly I only glanced at the OO this morning.

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/sweeping-away-a-culture-of-secrecy-20101031-178sl.html

  26. Dee,

    [Substance is not promoted by the media. ]

    If substance, or the lack of it, determined the fate of parties, the Coalition would poll lower than … I dunno, the Fishing Party.

  27. [If substance, or the lack of it, determined the fate of parties, the Coalition would poll lower than … I dunno, the Fishing Party.]
    I said before that the media was lazy but it is apparent that the voters are too.

  28. b_g
    [Glen Milne on Lib dilemmas]
    the gossip is entertaining. However, I doubt the analysis…
    [But there is a wider context here and it’s why Tony Abbott didn’t become prime minister on August 21. Within the Queensland Liberal Party…]
    Of course in a hung parliament, a seat or 2 makes all the difference, but if there were a single state organisational failure upon which to focus, I would have thought it would have been Abbott’s home state of NSW

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 98 of 99
1 97 98 99