The Australian reports the latest Victorian state Newspoll has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, a return to reality after the 55-45 lead they recorded in the July-August survey. However, the headline-grabber is the 19 per cent Greens vote (up two), dragging Labor down three points to 35 per cent with the Coalition up four to 40 per cent. John Brumby’s personal ratings are 45 per cent approval and 42 per cent disapproval, down three and up one on last time, while Ted Baillieu is on 39 per cent (steady) and 42 per cent (up one). Brumby’s preferred premier lead has narrowed from 52-27 to 49-31.
Thanks to the magic of the internet, we can now draw seat projections from Antony Green’s state election calculator, which asks of us two-party scores for both Labor-Coalition, which Newspoll gives us, and Labor-Greens, which it doesn’t. However, Newspoll does paint a beautifully straightforward picture of the Greens gaining 9 per cent on the primary vote since the 2006 election and Labor losing 8 per cent, with the Coalition treading water – making it a fairly simple matter of crediting the Greens with a two-party swing of 8 to 9 per cent. This puts Labor on 47 seats out of 88 and has the Greens right on the cusp of winning Northcote, to add to the lower hanging fruit of Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick (and pushing them into second place in a brace of Melbourne Liberal seats). Assuming three seats as a more realistic scenario, and taking the re-election of independent Craig Ingram in Gippsland East as a given, hung parliament scenarios begin to occupy a big chunk of the two-party bandwidth: from 50.8 per cent for Labor at the top end (where the calculator gives Labor 44 seats out of 88 in scenarios where the Greens win three) to 48.0 per cent at the bottom. And that’s leaving aside the possibility of major party applecarts being further upset by the emergence of new independents.
However, all of this rests upon the assumption that the Greens will continue to receive Liberal preferences, and a growing chorus of voices can be heard within conservatism urging them not to. This was joined yesterday by John Howard, who said his party had “nothing to gain” from assisting a party that was “worse than Labor” – not that he was ever observably squeamish about the practice in his own time. Mixed with any genuine concern about a Greens threat to the fabric of society is frustration that the Liberals get nothing in return for their generosity, either in the form of preference deals or a realistic prospect of parliamentary support in the event of a hung parliament. Exercising their preference muscle, the Liberals would hope, would help keep Greens minds focused during such negotiations in future.
The threat certainly gives the Greens a lot to think about, providing Bob Brown with further cause for distaste about the preference negotiation merry-go-round. Adam Bandt’s victory in Melbourne rested heavily on the Liberals playing their normal preference game: Labor’s Cath Bowtell had a narrow lead when their candidate was excluded at the second last count, but obedient Liberal voters then proceeded to break 80-20 Bandt’s way on preferences. Without these preferences flows, seats in the lower house would become a distant prospect indeed – and they would also find life that little bit harder when competing with Labor for final seats on their more familiar upper house turf.
UPDATE: Now we have a small sample Morgan phone poll which concurs with Newspoll’s 52-48, but gets there from very different primary vote figures: 40 per cent for Labor, 42.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Preferred premier is similar to Newspoll, with Brumby leading 47.5-32.5, but both leaders’ personal ratings are much worse: Brumby is on 36.5 per cent approval and 49 per cent disapproval, with Baillieu on 33 per cent and 46 per cent. The poll was conducted in two stages over the previous fortnight with a sample of 415 and a margin of error of about 5 per cent.
96
Nobody is saying Hurstbridge should have London Underground levels of frequency but an increase would attract more passengers. Between Greensborough and Eltham is now fully suburban and as such should get a full suburban service and this service should be at least every 10 minutes and have connecting buses at the same frequency so it is compensative with the car.
Although I agree with you about concerns with Melbourne’s urban sprawl. It is unsustainable. Higher density better planning is certainly the way forward. I use to live out that way and I am shock to see that Melbourne keeps spreading out without any thought about its infrastructure or impact on our environment. Each one of these houses will demand water for their Garden and before it was bush.
Tom Hurstbridge would require a double line or exchange at Eltham. Most of the environmental folk out that may have their 4WD while displaying the I voted Green sticker on the back bumper bar. they do not use teh train. Take a look at the patronage levels.
[Yea Rod silence the critics. Typical Green hypocrisy]
Yawn. DATW, I’v now read essentially the same posts from you time , after time, after time, fater time on various Crikey blogs. THe two things that just about every one of them has in common are that you don’t like the way the senate vote gets counted and that you think Andrew Bartlett should be the subject of compulsory euthenasia.
We hear you. You don’t like the Senate count process and you hate Andrew Bartlett for some reason. We’ve got it, OK? No need to say it over, and over, and over, and over, and over again.
John Brumby in his interview on Jon Faine earlier this week ruled out Local government reform and amalgamation. The Greens have also been silent on the concept of a greater City of Melbourne that takes in the state seats of Melbourne. Richmond , Albert Park and Prahran. While the conspiracy of silence? No policy nor ideas not commitment, The Greens are just selling words, promises and fantasies. David Risstom (They soon got rid of him) offered an alternative constructive opinion but the rest have a completely different agendas. And it is not about democracy, fair honest elections, environmental sustainability or community.
Rod I have read pretty much the same thin g by you. But hey I support your right to say it even though you repeat yourself. Some things need to be said time and time again and are on this site. The Tea leave readers are reading from the same book. But sure lets just have a Green only forum where they can spin their lies about preference flows and vote allocations. Not once have I seen the greens call for a more accurate and fair proportional electoral system. they just keep supporting the senate and Tasmanian system. As I have trued to explain both are fundamentally flawed in their execution.
A good interview on the ABC – Capital Hill. A lot of discussion about preference deals with the Greens. pressure is on for the Liberal party to put the state ahead of preferences deals.
Comments.
If Labor and the Liberal/National Party find common ground then the Geens do not hold the balance of power.
Opposition is dial a comment
Joe Hocking is out on a limb and has the big end of town now working against him.
Rod Hagen #104: I beg your pardon and withdrawal
[Andrew Bartlett should be the subject of compulsory euthenasia.]
I have never made such a stemenet ebven thpought you might hold this belief I do not. I find your comments offensive.
THink of it as the opposite of Litotes, DATW. Exaggeration for the sake of emphasis. Compared to the stuff you have actually dished out interminably to both Andrew Bartlett and Antony Green on these forums it is really pretty close to the mark.
I’m sure they have both found your oft repeated comments offensive too. You’ll have to live with mine.
Rod,
I agree re South Morang and Mernda and don’t understand why the South Morang rail extension promised in 1999 has still not been built or why the government has decided to build a busway, rather than a railway, to Mernda.
The urban intensification argument makes no sense at all in Australia. Leaving aside the optimum population level for the country as a whole and just looking at the distribution of whatever population we have, I cannot understand why a nation with 22 million people and some 7.7 million square kilometres of land has to squash itself into five mainland capital cities. In fact, we can accommodate the entire population of Australia at Melbourne’s current density and use no more than 44,000 square kilometres of that 7.7 million, leaving more than 99 per cent of the nation completely empty of people. That most of the rest of the nation is desert or semi-arid does not affect the argument because the desert and semi-arid areas do not constitute 99 per cent of the land surface.
England manages to fit ten times the Victorian population into an area the same size as the state with all but one of its cities less populated than Melbourne and with more than 80 per cent of its people living outside London. Surely, Victoria can accommodate a couple of million more people without turning its capital into a concrete jungle.
There are places, even in the Green Wedge Shire of Nillumbik, that can accommodate higher densities, put they should be specified according to objective criteria, not imposed by ministerial fiat.
Regardless of what you think of them, the DLP should be an option in the victorian Newspoll given they have a seat in the Victorian upper houses for federal and state.
I am ?embarrassed/proud to say I have never knowingly eaten tofu, in fact I only just found out what it actually was. I had thought it was made of some sort of fungus like mushrooms! But tofu-eaters beware (Wikipedia) –
[ High consumption of tofu has been linked with dementia in older age groups in more than one study]
It used to be jokes about lentils didn’t it? They are obviously a bit passé!
111 nick
I think William (or Peter Brent?) has highlighted this sort of issue in the past. Then it was in relation to the Greens – if you didn’t give a “Greens” option you underestimated their true eventual vote, and if you did give a Greens option you overestimated it. (May not be true of the Greens now as they have more visibilty)
110
Density, done properly, means more people have shops and PT within walking distance and so they are likely to walk more and therefore get more exercise and have less likelihood of obesity and such health problems. The increase in car use causing a decline in incidental exercise is one of the major causes of obesity in the modern world. Pro-road = pro-obesity!
The a significant proportion of the land around our cities is some of our best farming land and helps feed our cities sustainably and replacing it with housing drives the production further away which will cause problems when Peak Oil and Climate Chance responses make fuel much more expensive.
The majority of Australia is desert and semi-arid does effect the 7.7 million argument and such land should be subtracted from land available for urbanisation calculation including in arguments.
In England a significantly greater proportion of housing is flat, terrace or semi-detached. Semi-detached and terrace housing is even common in small towns. England also has less land of many urban areas taken up by roads than Australia`s suburbs. Land hungry roads and other car related uses take up the a lot of land in Australia`s suburbs and this is a significant part of the urban sprawl problem.
I agree entirely with your last paragraph.
D@W: Pull your head in. How ’bout an apology to the half a million Tasmanians you’ve just gone out of your way to offend because their voting system doesn’t meet your exacting requirements, eh?
GG and others: Perth seems to handle public transport being… uhh… public quite fine, and our network even manages to expand for an increasing population. We also managed to do the Myki equivalent for about $50 million. If Labor had promised to buy back the Melbourne PT system to right the wrongs of Kennett, you wouldn’t be sneering and asking for costings, you’d be signing on the dotted line and pulling Alannah MacTiernan over there for a high-paid consultancy job.
One old WA Liberal opposition leader (Bill Hassell maybe? Frank, help me out here) said in the 80’s that closing the Fremantle line was one of the biggest mistakes the Charles Court govt made in the 70’s, and one of the reasons Brian Burke won in 1983 with a historic landslide. Since then, the Liberals here at least pay lip service to expanding the network (such as their dodgy plan for the Mandurah line, later improved by Labor). Do the Victorian Liberals repudiate the worst of Kennett’s policies like that?
Rod Hagen
I replaced “Friday I’m in Love” by The Cure with “Ruby Tuesday” late on the Tuesday night September 7th after the indies backed Labor and TSOP was doing some bizarre things with his avatar and tag-name. But it seems to have taken ages to actually change!
Now I’ve found this melancholy version of Tambourine Man by Melanie – but it would be more suited to an election loss I think –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8LwyOSyWpNg&feature=related
[The urban intensification argument makes no sense at all in Australia. Leaving aside the optimum population level for the country as a whole and just looking at the distribution of whatever population we have, I cannot understand why a nation with 22 million people and some 7.7 million square kilometres of land has to squash itself into five mainland capital cities.]
Two different issues involved here, Chris.
Urban intensification actually makes a lot of sense in terms of major cities regardless of national population densities. It vastly cuts infrastructure costs, fuel and other energy usage, transport strategy development problems, alienation due to “distance from the centre” etc etc etc.
On the other hand, I agree with you completely that there is a huge need in Australia to look beyond the capital cities when it comes to future growth. We certainly need bigger better, urban centres OUTSIDE of the major cities (something recognised by the Whitlam government in the 1970’s, by the way, but barely paid more than lip service to in the days since).
[DemocracyATwork
Posted Friday, October 29, 2010 at 5:43 pm | Permalink
….
The Greens are just selling words, promises and fantasies. David Risstom (They soon got rid of him) offered an alternative constructive opinion but the rest have a completely different agendas. And it is not about democracy, fair honest elections, environmental sustainability or community.]
You really are sad case.
Bird of Paradise are you going to offer the apologies to the ongoing abuse leveled at a number of non Green Politicians not to forget the abuse levelled at the FF? Such hypocrisy, I am still waiting for the apology over the euthanasia jib., I do not apologize to Tasmania. Its electoral system is seriously flawed in concept and execution as it its ongoing subsidy and over representation. I believe in one vote one value and an open and transparent democratic electoral system, Tasmanian is nether.
Should read:
You really are a sad case.
I can’t add more because there was no content in the post to argue for or against.
DemocracyATwork
Like it or not the green vote is now about 15%, in which other state but Tasmania do they hold 15% of the seats?
I wonder if DemocracyATWork might actually be Steve Fielding? 😉
I see that the Catholic Church are now entering the fray in Victoria! Apparently it is ungodly to vote for the Greens, or any member of any party who happens to think that euthanasia or abortion is a legitimate course for that matter.
Certainly going to limit the options in some electorates!
Almost invites a response diametrically opposed from those of us who don’t believe in the Catholic version of God, or who think the lless religion (whatever the faith) has to do with politics the better, I reckon! Given that less than 10% of Australians regularly attend church of any kind I’m not sure the Archbishop of Melbourne is on a winner here!
[I am still waiting for the apology over the euthanasia jibe]
No point waiting D@W. You’ve already heard all I’m going to say on the matter.
[Now I’ve found this melancholy version of Tambourine Man by Melanie]
Another great song, RR, but I’d have to say I prefer the slightly wistful Dylan original, and The Band’s jingly jangly upbeat alternative to Melanie’s in this case. Back in the late 60’s / early 70’s I used to love sitting on a remote beach with a guitar at dawn and having a go at this one myself. I’m sure it would have sounded like absolute crap to any poor soul who happened to be within earshot (of which there was little chance), but gee I loved singing it! 😉
[High consumption of tofu has been linked with dementia in older age groups in more than one study]
Which came first, the dementia or the consumption of tofu?
DAW – Give it a rest please!!!! Let someone else have a chance to post
@127
Just wait until the days after the election. If there are any close counts and recounts we’ll get 54962 posts about how incompetent and hopeless the VEC are.
Is Steve Tully or whatever his name is still head of the VEC? If so, we won’t be able to move on this blog for anti-Tully rants.
Just read Andrew Bolt’s article in the Herald-Sun today about how “John Brumby must quell the Greens” – in about 1200 words he manages to mention Baillieu and the Liberals preferencing them in just one line! This is after ranting on about how dangerous the Greens will be and how Labor is making this happen etc etc.
The Liberal party effectively putting the Greens into a Labor-Green government has got him so flummoxed he can barely mention it! Actually watch this space, because if Bolt gets wind of the Coalition being about to lose this one he’ll round on them because he hates to be seen to be supporting a “loser” on election day. So if he is sure the Coalition will win he’ll trumpet their virtues right up till Nov 27, but if he smells carrion he’ll bag them ruthlessly in the last week or so for not being “tough enough”!
Rod 125 – yes, definitely Dylan. Melanie’s is too sad.
castle 126 – hadn’t thought of that – maybe I have been eating the stuff after all!
if there are issue as there were in 2006 Yes I will be speaking out. Obviously t6he Greens will not be. After all they did not speak out when they lost out in Queensland and when they were the benefactors of corrupt practices in Western metro VIC 2006. I rest mu case they are not holier then thou, For the record I have no religion. I am an observer of faith not a practitioner. Although I was responsible for the Greens first election to public office in Victoria ( (I have no regrets there – Risstrom was a good canidate) I am not a fan of the new Green State regime they are not cuddly Koalas with noble values they have a very dark agenda.
Agsin I belive in a fair okpen taranspernetand accurateb electoral system. I am oppsoed to ropst, flaws and corruption in the way the vote is counted. The Greens should have been elected to the sixth seat in Queensland 2007. I can not confirmn the Greens win in Wetsren metro as the commsion deleteed the data-files. )Obviously the Greens think that is OK – They hold no real values when it bcomes to elctoral refrom) I will continue to expose and debate teh ropts and erros in the system without fear or intimidation.
1. I am a Greens voter, I like tofu but only if its cooked with lots of meat. I am not a big vegetable fan either.
2. I bet Peter Garret is spewin’ he didn’t join the Greens, a true fallen idol!
3. Yes I am an ex Labor voter who got pissed off with Labor’s lurch to the right. I am also a bogan and I have never earned above the average wage.
Garret was a member of the Greens he was their Senate Candidate. he realised that then Greens has been captured by a group of radicals trading on the Green agenda. Do you honestly think the Greens will survive once Brown has retired? Singer was an interesting candidate but he was overthrown like Risstrom was. The media needs to do a review of the working of the Greens. Democrats they are not. They do not even support an accurate voting system – one vote one value principle.
[Although I was responsible for the Greens first election to public office in Victoria ( (I have no regrets there – Risstrom was a good canidate) I am not a fan of the new Green State regime….
Agsin I belive in a fair okpen taranspernetand accurateb electoral system. I am oppsoed to ropst, flaws and corruption ]
Ok. I’m sure I must be opposed to “ropst” and I’m sure too that anything that is “okpen taranspernetand accurateb” must be a good thing whatever it may be.
Have fun on Mars, D@W.
Clarification. Garret as the endorsed Nuclear Disarmament Party Candidate which was the forerunner of the Greens. I first met Garret during my University days and recall being involved in organising many Mid Night Oil concerts at Melbourne Deakin Universities as well as events associated with RRR. Garret held a law degree, At first I thought he was a “punk rocker” As I got to know him I realised he was committed to real change and real values. I do not believe he has lost this zeal for reform and change. His decision to join the ALP was a logical progression. The spirit of his music live on in the hearts and minds of Australia.
Nielsen Poll
Victorian Politics
2PP: ALP 53 LNP 47
I understand that both Labor and the Coalition have primaries in the high 30s though I don’t have the exact figures. I believe that the Greens have 16%, including 18% in the metro area.
[I believe in Open Transparent governance and accurate elections]
The Greesn do not
GhostWhoVotes
#Nielsen Victorian Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 LNP 47 #auspol #vicvotes
Dang, pipped at the post by the real thing! Thanks GWV!
Ghost who votes. (not to be consuded with the RRR annoucer)
[Nielsen Poll
Victorian Politics
2PP: ALP 53 LNP 47]
I understand that both Labor and the Coalition have primaries in the high 30s though I don’t have the exact figures. I believe that the Greens have 16%, including 18% in the metro area.
That is the data and information I have, and has formed the basis of all my analysis. It reflects the results of the Victorian Senate. Again I suggest and recommend that you look more closely at the Senate results as they apply to Victorian electorates and upper house regions. This is the benchmark that I believe will be reflected in the Nov 27 Election.
New thread.