Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes informs us that tonight’s Newspoll has the Coalition opening a 52-48 lead. More to follow.

UPDATE: Matthew Franklin of The Australian reports “Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy said tonight that Labor had suffered a six-point plunge in primary support outside cities”, prompting speculation the fall has been driven by the Murray-Darling Basin report. Primary votes are apparently little changed on the previous Newspoll survey, which had Labor at 35 per cent, the Coalition at 42 per cent and the Greens at 14 per cent – but they must have changed at least some to have wrought a two-point shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred. No doubt GhostWhoVotes will reveal all shortly.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full results here. Labor’s primary vote is down two to a new low of 33 per cent, the Coalition is up one to 43 per cent and the Greens are steady on 14 per cent. The move is reflected on personal ratings, with Julia Gillard down four on approval to 44 per cent and up four on disapproval to 37 per cent, and Tony Abbott up two on approval to 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 46 per cent. However, Gillard has held even on preferred prime minister with a lead of 53-32, with both leaders up a point on last time.

UPDATE 3: James J notes in comments that this is Labor’s lowest primary vote since 3-5 December 2004, equal lowest since 20-22 August 1993, and second lowest since Newspoll began in 1985.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,928 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. laocoon @4899,

    I agree.

    Although I hate to say it the LNP did very well in Queensland with its campaign. NSW would be the state that failed for the libs.

    Would Milne be a liberal or a national, I wonder ? Stoking the fire perhaps ?

  2. I think milne was trying to say the LNP could have grabbed one more seat

    then tie

    indies go with fibs

    tone is PM

    sorta reasonable considering QLD collapsed for labor

    if they had 2 extra

    night, nurse


  3. [Glen Milne on Lib dilemmas]

    Milne says in his article that the LNP raised $5 million on the “pretext” of using it for the federal campaign but only allocated 1/2 million hoarding the other 4 1/2 million for the next state campaign.

    Can the LNP do that, are any laws being broken.??

    Soliciting donations and raising money for a federal campaign with the intention of keeping it for a state campaign.

    Aside from any electoral laws what about breach of trust with individual donors, can they ask for their money back?

  4. Dee,

    I share your frustration with the laziness of the public. For a democracy to work properly calls for a well-informed, politically-engaged populace. We certainly could never accuse the Australian public of being THAT. Of course, the media is as much to blame for this state of affairs as the public. Focusing on sensation over substance, giving one side a free pass no matter how much they deserve a kicking, repeating partisan slogans rather than policy analysis, leaves the public ill-served and ignorant – except for that minor percentage of voters who make it their business to dig deeper for a fuller perception. The attachment to myths is also a factor. There’s the myth that the Coalition are the better economic managers. This endures, apart from an occasional poll here and there showing them to be slightly behind on that score. With all their flakiness and flip-flopping the Coalition myth should have been shattered long ago, but the lazy public cling to it, like an infant clings to a security blanket – too complacent to step outside the Comfort Zone for a current, open-minded appraisal of the situation. Myths and complacency are among the toughest political nuts to crack I suspect.

  5. [Fledgling talkback station MTR remained stuck at the bottom of the ladder with a 1.1 per cent audience share and an average audience of just 6000. In contrast, the Fairfax-owned 3AW has an audience share of 14.2 per cent and an average audience of 78,000, keeping it at No. 1, while 774 ABC has 12.6 per cent share and an average audience of 69,000.]
    Gee Bolt doesn’t have many listeners.

  6. [Myths and complacency are among the toughest political nuts to crack I suspect.]
    One would have thought that by Howards end that the public had awakened.
    Looks like it was all about Howards ‘over exposure’, much like pop culture.

  7. cuppa
    Take your ALP hat off.
    Do you think the ALP performed badly after the 2007 election?
    I don’t but………obviously something is not working.

  8. [Gee Bolt doesn’t have many listeners.]

    Any wonder, have you heard him speak, I heard him once on insiders and that was enough. Don’t know if he talked that way before or after the calculator incident but I’m sure it had some effect on his voice.

  9. [Do you think the ALP performed badly after the 2007 election?
    I don’t but………obviously something is not working.]

    They performed very very well on the policy front.

    GFC – Big tick.
    Health Funding – Tick.
    Miners Tax – Big Tick. Though it might have been better to wait until Day One of the second term to introduce it, rather than in the twilight days of Term One.
    Climate Change – Big Tick for serial efforts to get the ETS passed. Big Fail to the Coalition for reneging on a done deal, and to the Greens for siding with the Coalition.

    Where Labor failed was in the PR angle. They need to more aggressively and assertively defend their policies/programs. Attack the living daylights out of the Coalition. Let no lie go uncorrected. Easy for me to say, I guess, not having to contend with a media that’s worse than useless.

  10. [Easy for me to say, I guess, not having to contend with a media that’s worse than useless.]
    I agree with all your listed achievements.
    They are crap at selling their achievements. How do we get that message across to them? No good will come of it if they wait to the eve of another election campaigne to sign up an affective PR team.
    The message & the selling has to start now.

  11. Interesting to note Julia has written a exclusive article on Afghanistan for one of Murdochs rags in England.

    Although it repeats pretty much what she spoke about in her speech to parliament during the debate it surprised me Murdoch would have it in one of his papers.

  12. My Say, I Say i am solly that your attempt to do BOLDING did not work out. But you were very BOLD to try. :kiss:

    Blame Herr Wilhelm, he was not BOLD enough to give us a WYSIWYG editor:

    Instead of this crummy text editor. 😡 . what has he done with my subs money to Crikey. 🙁

  13. Dee,

    The last election showed two things:

    1) Spin can prevail over Substance (Coalition).

    2) Lack of Spin (Labor) can allow good policy to go unsold/undefended.

    The element central to both is … Spin.

    So the solution lies in more aggressive PR – or Spin, if you prefer.

    Do you think the talent pool in Australia for good PR people is too shallow? Perhaps the PR industry is dominated by right wing types, such that Labor has difficulty sourcing the talent it needs? If that’s the case they should draw on the talent they’ve already got. They need to recruit Maxine McKew for the task – she knows her way around the media and is presumably at a loose end these days. Get her to train up and clue in their PR people. Something’s got to be done, right now: they were a good government, policy-wise, and deserved a more decisive outcome at the election. The policy-hollow Coalition shouldn’t have been allowed to get a look-in.

  14. Yep

    [Essential: regulate the banks, say voters
    by Bernard Keane
    Voters strongly support Joe Hockey’s call for more banking regulation, according to today’s Essential Report?—?although Hockey himself has lost ground in voter estimation as a contender for the Liberal leadership.

    There is strong support for the broad concept of more regulation, with 64% of voters agreeing there should be more, 20% saying the current level of regulation is about right (4% want less). It’s the partisan split that makes this result interesting?—?Labor and Liberal voters are virtually indistinguishable in their support for more regulation, but its Greens voters who are softest on the idea of more regulation, at 57% compared to 68/67% for Labor and Liberal voters, and much higher support for the idea that the present level of regulation was just right?—?35%?—?who knew Greens voters were such economic rationalists.]

    Also people want the govt to start up their own bank and cap bank CEO’s salaries.

    And more Lib voters want MT than JH for the first time in a while.

    A mixed result for Joe.


    Now, it is Sloppy Joe Vs Sarah Palin:

    [HOCKEY: Lyndal, on 31 occasions now Wayne Swan has warned the banks not to go beyond the Reserve Bank and they ignore him. They ignore him. You need to have a government with gravitas. You need to have a Treasurer with gravitas. This is a government that has no gravitas. The fact that Julia Gillard attacked me, Andrew Robb, Kristina Keneally, Barry O’Farrell, attacked all of us last night illustrates that it’s a government with no gravitas. It was like being slapped around the head with a terry towelling hat. It was ridiculous.]

    [US mid-term elections 2010: Sarah Palin hits back at Karl Rove’s claim she lacks ‘gravitas’- Sarah Palin has hit back at Karl Rove, President George W. Bush’s former adviser, for suggesting the American people would not think she had the “gravitas” for the White House.

    By Toby Harnden in Chicago Published: 6:42PM GMT 31 Oct 2010 – The former Alaska governor, who has yet to announce whether she will run for president in 2012, was responding to a Daily Telegraph interview last week in which Mr Rove said that “with all due candour, appearing on your own reality show on the Discovery Channel, I am not certain how that fits in the American calculus of ’that helps me see you in the Oval Office’”. ]

    Please take me to the Disneyland.

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