Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes informs us that tonight’s Newspoll has the Coalition opening a 52-48 lead. More to follow.

UPDATE: Matthew Franklin of The Australian reports “Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy said tonight that Labor had suffered a six-point plunge in primary support outside cities”, prompting speculation the fall has been driven by the Murray-Darling Basin report. Primary votes are apparently little changed on the previous Newspoll survey, which had Labor at 35 per cent, the Coalition at 42 per cent and the Greens at 14 per cent – but they must have changed at least some to have wrought a two-point shift in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred. No doubt GhostWhoVotes will reveal all shortly.

UPDATE 2: GhostWhoVotes has full results here. Labor’s primary vote is down two to a new low of 33 per cent, the Coalition is up one to 43 per cent and the Greens are steady on 14 per cent. The move is reflected on personal ratings, with Julia Gillard down four on approval to 44 per cent and up four on disapproval to 37 per cent, and Tony Abbott up two on approval to 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 46 per cent. However, Gillard has held even on preferred prime minister with a lead of 53-32, with both leaders up a point on last time.

UPDATE 3: James J notes in comments that this is Labor’s lowest primary vote since 3-5 December 2004, equal lowest since 20-22 August 1993, and second lowest since Newspoll began in 1985.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,928 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  2. Gaffhook

    now why does a pyjama python sound harmless, but yet takes months to heal. It should be named differently. Maybe the devil python 😉

  4. Victoria, they say between a conspiracy and a stuff-up, 99% is a stuff-up. But the question is who stuffed it up?

    There are just too many “funny bits”. What or who are they trying to blow-up?

    Maybe this is only a trial run to test the new technology by Al Kaiiiida.

  9. Dee – Last time I was on it, too many behemoth Land Cruisers towing caravans roaring around the blind corners impinging on my lane. No where to go – lucky I was in a mini.

  10. victoria

    Apart from the drop, you would have been perfectly safe. Tree snakes are rear-fanged. They virtually have to swallow their prey before they can get some decent venom in.

    They did have one alarming habit. I was with a group of friends, including a rather buxom woman, when a tree snake dropped out of the tree and into the rather capacious valley between her bosoms. The screams as she ripped (literally) her dress off were humungous. The tree snake could not get out of there fast enough. The rest of us could hardly stand up for laughing.

    Another time a colleague arrived at work looking like death warmed up. A tree snake had dropped on him on his way to work. As he said at the time, the only jungle he was interested in was the concrete jungle.

  12. Victoria

    I found a big brown snake sleeping under my wheelie bin and now I am afraid of snakes and wheelie bins. I dread every rubbish collection day ….. has it come back again I say to myself.

  18. v.
    Yes, fair dinkum. There were an awful lot of snakes in the wetter bits of the NT. I know one Aboriginal guy who, when walking in the dark, was always rolling rocks in front of him to frighten the snakes off.

  19. Gusface

    all this talk of snakes has certainly made me a nervous ninny. Nightmares are looming for me I suspect.

    I will see how I go. Night all!

  21. Radguy
    [No where to go – lucky I was in a mini.]
    Gee, Radguy, your own mini or did you thumb a lift.
    We had a mini 850 van & picked up hitch hikers. Problem was they had to get out & push because it wouldn’t start once we stopped.

  22. [Meanwhile, my back yard is full of redbacks]

    Dammit, I was just thinking how glad I was this conversation isn’t about spiders.

  24. Red backs are not a problem unless you disturb them.

    The white-tippeds are my worry. They move around after lights out. I think their bite might be necrotic.

  26. [Meanwhile, my back yard is full of redbacks

    Dammit, I was just thinking how glad I was this conversation isn’t about spiders.]

    They are very photogenic!

  27. [Dammit, I was just thinking how glad I was this conversation isn’t about spiders.]

    See, that’s interesting. I think spiders are adorable. While I am weary of the venomous ones and wouldn’t want to provoke them, I have no problem with them and actually give house spiders pet names.

  29. tsop
    I don’t mind huntsmen inside, love st andrews cross. and admire colonial spiders, but sometimes I will do search and destroy on white-tippeds: switch the light for five minutes, switch it back on and bowl over any white-tippeds I find.

  30. [ I think spiders are adorable]

    TSOP

    There’s my problem. I don’t like spiders, but could never kill or be cruel to any creature.

    Once had to push a giant huntsman that was on the ceiling along with a broom to encourage it to go out the door. It took a while, but I got there. Problem was it kept wanting to get back inside.

  31. [The white-tippeds are my worry. They move around after lights out. I think their bite might be necrotic.]

    Fearless little buggers. They hunt peeps. I have been hunted by a few. SCARY!

    Redbacks and other black widow types are complete wusses. They run and hide if they can, also don’t wander much from their webs.

  36. At my daughters place you could see these green flickers across her yard in the dark with sparce lighting. Trap doors on the march. Yuck!

  38. [Dee – camped at Wye River.

    The scenery and beaches are great – we had a ball there.]
    The pub there use to have the best meals.

  39. TSOP

    yo

    at mums one day had the pleasure to watch this monster of wasp grab a mega spider

    flew in had a titanic struggle then drugged the mutha and dragged it all of 30 yards to its hole

    I have deep respect for such bravado

  40. [Late Lib scratching in race to govern Vic

    AAP

    They are almost off and racing and there has been a late scratching in the Victorian elections.

    The resignation of a Liberal candidate after allegedly telling locals that Somali refugees would move into public housing in the electorate and be given free cars has soured the start of the coalition’s campaign.]

  41. Dee – We stayed at the caravan park. Didn’t go to the pub. I can’t remember what we ate. Actually, I recall very little except it was one of the best benders ever! I love the beach, and I was rapped because it was stinking hot, so I could surf all day.

    I must go again.

  42. Before we became respectable oldies we would camp in groups on the beach & party all night. The local councils banned it which drove everyone into the caravan parks. Erskine Falls was great, going down the sheer flat rock on tubes but Lorne has been transformed into Yuppyville.

  44. TSOP

    [The best defense against a shark, if you have to, is to hit it in its weak spots – the eyes or the gills.]

    Why not a decent headbutt or two 😉

    I can’t seem to treat advice regarding how to attack a man eating white pointer seriously as I think the sharks don’t lose too many a stoush with human folk.

    Not scared of spiders or snakes, don’t like em in my car though but woebetide any cockroach who crosses my threshold 😉

  45. [I can’t seem to treat advice regarding how to attack a man eating white pointer seriously as I think the sharks don’t lose too many a stoush with human folk.]

    Of course I am not suggesting going into the water and starting a brawl with a shark, nor am I suggesting that you are assured of victory in such a scenario, but if a shark is attacking you, the best defence is to hurt it in its weak spots and hope it figures you’re too much effort to try and eat.

  47. I used to surf a lot many years ago and knew full well if a shark took my leg off it wasn’t going to matter how hard I belted it on the nose.

    The advice is relevent though as we seem to read a story or two each year regarding divers or surfers claiming to have punched one out 😉

  48. [I used to surf a lot many years ago and knew full well if a shark took my leg off it wasn’t going to matter how hard I belted it on the nose]

    Just when I thought it was safe to come back.

  50. Horses, cows and dogs kill more people in Australia each year than either snakes or sharks. Horses are way out in front . Bees and snakes are pretty much on a par. Sharks come in well below snaks.

    All pale into insignificance when compared to our most dangerous large animal of all, of course. Humans!

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