Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead from last week, but with the Coalition gaining a point on the primary vote to 44 per cent, Labor stable on 42 per cent and the Greens down a point further to an undernourished 8 per cent. When asked whether Tony Abbott was “unfairly putting roadblocks in the way of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s programs”, 46 per cent rated him too obstructive while 54 per cent believed his actions “appropriate” for an Opposition Leader (not sure where the don’t knows went). A surprisingly large majority agreed there should be a new election, perhaps owing to the question’s rather odd qualification that such an election would allow us “a Government with a working majority”: 55 per cent agreed with only 23 per cent disagreeing. Findings on “attributes to describe the Prime Minister” have Julia Gillard deteriorating on all measures since the questions were last posed on July 5. Her worst reversal is a 15 per drop on “good in a crisis”, which forcefully makes the point that there’s no accounting for taste. The figures for Tony Abbott are little changed, with a general pattern of very slight improvements. Gillard remains better placed than Abbott on each measure, being well ahead on “down to earth” and well behind on “narrow-minded” and “arrogant”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,648 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Seriously, do you think that Libs would go for a replacement leader who can “do an Abbott” but with more finesse, or go for a moderate?

  2. I will add my protest to those of others at the blatant sexism that’s infected this blog over the past 24 odd hours (actually, for a lot longer, more sporadically).

    Call me humourless if you like, I really don’t care.

    Some of these comments really should include a link to the Benny Hill theme music.

    This stuff gives all blokes who contribute to the Pollbludger a bad name.

    If that leads to a ‘if you don’t like it, go somewhere else’ response, so be it.

  3. victoria

    To qualify my reply on voting intentions, I’m sorry for my local member because she’s doing a good job, but Brumby needs a shakeup. From the poll reports above, it sounds as if I’m turning into “typical”. Not sure I like the sound of that, but at least I consider my vote carefully.

  4. Lizzie – I don’t think Abetz, Bernardi, Jensen, Joyce and their ilk would allow a moderate like Turnbull to take over again. Hockey might just get away with it if Abbott falls disastrously in the polls otherwise Abbott will stay.

    I heard Combet this morning make some good comment about Abbott. He said on AM, when questioned about Abbott’s response to the CC Committee, that it doesn’t matter what Abbot says because he never has anything positive to say and is all negative. Well said, Combet.

  5. lizzie

    My advice is to be careful what you wish for. I am afraid we may get a Liberal govt, if everyone has this attitude. Generally speaking, Victoria compared to the rest of Australia, is moving along nicely.

  6. Scringler

    [Rox

    Any movement in the bid to eradicate Abetz from the Tassie political landscape?]

    None whatsoever. 🙁

    Except by us non-Lib voters.

  7. Rewi Lyall

    We are all sexist, and all racist at some time of the day. No matter how hard we try. Sometimes, we need reminding to behave better.

  8. victoria

    I get so maaaad when the party I would rather support does stupid things, or behaves as arrogantly as the Brumby govt does over Planning and Water.

  9. victoria, I do, I do. But I will NOT waste my vote by voting informal.
    The question I ask is, isn’t Brumby listening to anyone? Or is he only listening to business?

  10. [He said on AM, when questioned about Abbott’s response to the CC Committee, that it doesn’t matter what Abbot says because he never has anything positive to say and is all negative. ]

    At last! They have finally picked something that might stick to Tone. He’s always quick to identify the problem but never wants to be part of the solution.

    Keep it up.

  11. lizzie @ 3415

    [I get so maaaad when the party I would rather support does stupid things, or behaves as arrogantly as the Brumby govt does over Planning and Water.]

    I don’t get mad, I just weep….
    Ad to your list Public Transport

  12. bemused

    Well, I don’t think about public transport much, because out where I live we don’t have any!
    But it certainly has been mucked up big time. Can’t believe they could make such a mess of it.

  13. there have been some initiatives with Public transport. We now have a smart bus that travels from one side of the city to Frankston and links in between.

    We have a new Royal Children’s Hospital. The Austin has been expanded. The Mercy Hospital and been rebuilt in Heidelberg. The Dental hospital as well. There has been progress. We need to see the positives around the place.

  14. Victoria

    the comment about abbot being Jesus is clearly ironic in terms of what others might think – neither does i imply atheism in anyone making it, because many interested in religion could still object to Abbot’s way of doing things. Further, this might be a political blog and however much some might think politics should be secular in many places in the world religion and politics are mixed. One of those places one can be sure in Tony’s mind. What the press and public might see as unusual leadership skills and energy is also a form of zealotry – I have no doubt of this. Has anyone done a depth biographical study or even a probing interview with him on such matters (if that was possible). It is possible Abbot was trained by Opus Dei as a social elite for a right wing form of catholicism – even if not so there is no doubt that he aligns himself more with Jesus than his critics would tolerate. I sense his anger is often with his religion and god even that not everything goes according to plan.

  15. victoria

    I’ll give them the hospitals. But they’re all in the city. (Heidelberg is over an hour away for me.)
    But we could have so many more buses than we do.

  16. Sometimes a vote is a criticism rather than a support of the other party. If Brumby has any sensible advisors, they should now be warning him. I think he’s left his catchup a little late. OTOH, the Libs are so hopeless…

  17. lizzie @ 3424

    [Well, I don’t think about public transport much, because out where I live we don’t have any!
    But it certainly has been mucked up big time. Can’t believe they could make such a mess of it.]

    You just fingered 2 of the problems.

    The last significant expansion of the Melbourne Metropolitan rail network [apart from the underground loop] was the construction of the Glen Waverley line in the 1930s! Since then I think more track has been closed than new track built and Melbourne has expanded dramatically.

    Of course freeway construction appears to be no problem but of course they quickly become choked by traffic generated by the absence of decent public transport.

  18. bemused

    Unfortunately, VicRoads has all the power. Add privatisation and toll roads and the roads are built for profit, not convenience (and then they get it wrong when people refuse to pay 😆 )

    Bl–dy Kennett closed down so many lines and quickly sold off the land, and now there’s been so much public money spent on converting rail lines into “rail trails” that we’ve lost the battle.

    I remember before Labor beat Kennett, the opposition had some really good policies, well stated. Unfortunately Peter Batchelor, excellent in Oppn, somehow went soft once in govt. I suspect pressure by the bureaucrats, who were still “Kennett’s men:”.

  19. [Of course freeway construction appears to be no problem but of course they quickly become choked by traffic generated by the absence of decent public transport.]
    The idea of traffic growing to absorb the new capacity of freeway construction is a bit mythical here in Australia. The simple problem in most of our cities, including Melbourne, is that the population keeps growing, so there are more people travelling around the network, but the capacity isn’t correspondingly expanded, so the network clogs up. When the demand expands, you either need new roads or new trains and buses, or both.

    Most states have been reluctant to build new public transport, because it has an operating cost, whereas a tollroad gnerates income. If the only new roads you build are toll roads, then you are effectively taxing people by stealth, because there is no choice for people but to use it.

    Another problem is that if you let outer suburbs sprawl in a low density fashion, then high frequency public transport becomes uneconomic.

  20. [I just want the coalition to implode. I know it is childish, but that is my wish.]

    Me, too.

    Someone here mentioned ages back that the Libs might give Pyne a run. The suggestion was, I think, in jest, but, but …

  21. lizzie @ 3432

    VicRoads having all the power is a poor reflection on the govt who should assert themselves and control VicRoads.

    However VicRoads do have a role to play! Wouldn’t it be nice to see them divert a large slice of their budget to getting rid of all those level crossings like Sydney did in the previous century. That would benefit road users, eliminate a large source of accidents and benefit rail users.

    Actually I don’t think Kennett did close [m]any metropolitan tracks. Wasn’t it the Cain govt that turned the St Kilda and Port Melbourne lines into tram tracks?

  22. I should add the Regional Rail Link project in Melbourne will increase the capacity of the inner city rail network, and greatly improve rail services in the corridors it is aimed at. However I agree there is still a huge need for rail extensions in the east, and more outer bus services almost everywhere. It is an example of a national problem: we just don’t spend enough on public transport to cope with our growing populaiton.

  23. lizzie

    as someone who ran as a candidate for Labor in the ’99 election, I’d be interested in knowing which good policies you think weren’t delivered.

    On public transport, the major ones I remember were reopening many regional railways which K had closed – most of which has happened – and revamping lines like the one to Ballarat (which people who use regularly rave to me about).

    Under Labor, you have to remember that rail use has increased dramatically, far outstripping expectations, and thus also far outstripping the predictions made as part of the forward planning process.

    It has also been hampered by the privatisation of much of the infrastructure. The reason that the Wodonga-Melb line is only being rebuilt now is that it’s taken this much time to get control of the line back from private companies.

  24. To be fair to VicRoads, I know a few peopel in it who are genuinely trying to do things like bus priroity and cycle lane projects. The problem is again money: to grade separate rail crossings in urban areas as bemused suggested in 3435 typically costs $30M to $50 PER CROSSING! Unless someone commits a large budget to it, neither VicRoads nor anyone else can make it happen.

  25. bemused

    Who flogged the public transport system? Who stuffed it up? Who inherited the mess?

    The Liberal snake-oil salesman: Jeff Kennett.

  26. [Another problem is that if you let outer suburbs sprawl in a low density fashion, then high frequency public transport becomes uneconomic.]

    That’s one of the things I would criticise Brumby for. Instead of holding the boundaries and the green wedges, he’s “let the belt out” and allowed greenfields development. It’s the easy, developer-led solution, not the politically more difficult, but more economic and sustainable infill solution.

  27. #3426 @geoffrey
    [there is no doubt that he aligns himself more with Jesus than his critics would tolerate.]
    I beg to differ. As a practising Christian and a student of theology I would not see Abbot’s values as being in line with Jesus. It is not ‘religion’ that is important. His aggresion, disdain for poor and other attitudes do not match those I see in the person of Jesus as portrayed in the New Testament.
    Jesus does not defend big business, nor lying or bullying, all on clear demonstration by Mr. Abbot.

  28. Socrates @ 3433

    [The idea of traffic growing to absorb the new capacity of freeway construction is a bit mythical here in Australia. The simple problem in most of our cities, including Melbourne, is that the population keeps growing, so there are more people travelling around the network, but the capacity isn’t correspondingly expanded, so the network clogs up. When the demand expands, you either need new roads or new trains and buses, or both.]

    Actually I thought it was an observed phenomenon. Certainly to this observer.

    [Most states have been reluctant to build new public transport, because it has an operating cost, whereas a tollroad gnerates income. If the only new roads you build are toll roads, then you are effectively taxing people by stealth, because there is no choice for people but to use it.]

    Hmmmm so you are a fare evader on public transport?

    Most roads are not toll roads and tollroads or freeways generate traffic on other roads they connect with.

    Quite simply, the main means of fast, efficient public transport over longer distances in cities, rail, has been largely neglected in Melbourne for 80 years by all governments.

    There appears to be no appreciation in the govt of peak oil and the CSIRO forecast price of up to $8 per litre for petrol within relatively few years. At least then the freeways won’t be so clogged.

  29. zoomster
    [It has also been hampered by the privatisation of much of the infrastructure,]
    I agree completely. But you have to admit that the ticketing systems, using a fav MSM word, have been a ‘fiasco’. I have a relative who is so confused by it all that he won’t even try any more. I’m sure there must be others like him.

    In my area, the Healesville line was closed. The nearest station is Lilydale, half an hour by car, and more by the very few buses per day. I think that other outer suburbs (and these are not new suburbs, such as Gembrook), are in similar case.

  30. Socrates @ 3438

    [To be fair to VicRoads, I know a few peopel in it who are genuinely trying to do things like bus priroity and cycle lane projects. The problem is again money: to grade separate rail crossings in urban areas as bemused suggested in 3435 typically costs $30M to $50 PER CROSSING! Unless someone commits a large budget to it, neither VicRoads nor anyone else can make it happen.]

    The usual excuse. Explain then how Sydney did it in the last century?

    How many ‘level crossings’ [intersections] are there on all the freeways around Melbourne?

    It is all a question of priorities and for the last half century or so they have been skewed heavily to roads at the expense of public transport.

  31. [Someone here mentioned ages back that the Libs might give Pyne a run. The suggestion was, I think, in jest, but, but …]

    I’m quite sure that people used to suggest Abbott in jest too. The longer I closely watch politics the more I’m convinced that there is very little logic in the popularity of leaders.

  32. Rewi Lyall
    Posted Friday, October 8, 2010 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    “I will add my protest to those of others at the blatant sexism that’s infected this blog over the past 24 odd hours (actually, for a lot longer, more sporadically).”

    what was that ?

    anyways i mentioned a long time ago about peoples commentin on Julia Bishops eyes birth afflicton but apparently thats ok Then there’s calling sloppy Robb so we know what that means , loose with figures At least I’m th model perfect here

  33. Scringler @ 3439

    [Who flogged the public transport system? Who stuffed it up? Who inherited the mess?

    The Liberal snake-oil salesman: Jeff Kennett.]

    You won’t buy an argument with me on that.

    The only problem is that the Labour government has simply adopted the mad ideology of Kennettism and continued to run things his way rather than taking it back under public control and running it properly. In many respects Brumby is simply Kennett-lite. That is the problem!

  34. [Ad to your list Public Transport]

    Bemused, wasn’t a lot of it “Jeffed”? Has it been UnJeffed?

    For a few years there, melb had the best & best coordinated t’port in Oz. One year I’m down there for a vac & it’s soooper; next it’s a shambles & people have been complaining ever since – while blaming it on Bracks & Brumby (as my Tory melb sibling does). Same with utilities.

    It’s a bit like blaming Uk train & London’s Tube mess on brown & Blair, when it was “Marg’ed” – although most of the train mess seems to have been “sorted” in the last few years.

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