The Australian Electoral Commission has finalised the last of its two-party preferred Labor-versus Coalition counts, and it confirms Labor has won a narrow victory on the national total of 6,216,439 (50.12 per cent) to 6,185,949 (49.88 per cent), a margin of 30,490. If distinctions to the second decimal place are what matters to you, Labor did about 0.05 per cent worse than last time due to the arbitrary fact of the Nationals finishing ahead of Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor, meaning the AEC finalised a two-party result on a Nationals-versus-Labor basis where the 2007 Liberal-versus-Labor result was more favourable to them. So while I think it reasonable to cite the published figure as the definitive national result, a slight discount should be factored in when considering the matter of the swing, which should properly be rounded to 2.5 per cent rather than 2.6 per cent.
Whatever the specifics, the result leaves quite a few people looking foolish:
Barnaby Joyce: “We’d won the two-party preferred vote by the time the independents made their decision.” (Lateline, 7/9).
Andrew Bolt: “Labor won fewer votes, fewer seats of its own and less of the two-party preferred vote.” (Herald Sun, 8/9).
Alan Jones: “Is it a healthy democracy when a party wins the majority of the two party preferred, wins the majority of the primary vote and wins more seats in the Parliament than the other party but the other party forms government?” (2GB, 8/9).
Sarah Martin: “Yesterday, Julia Gillard’s Labor Party won government despite losing the primary vote and the two-party-preferred vote, or securing a majority of seats.” (The Advertiser, 7/9).
Kerry Chikarovski: “The Coalition won the primary vote, they won the two-party preferred …” (The Drum, 7/9).
Lateline: “Labor loses two-party preferred vote” (report headline, 30/8).
Kenneth Wiltshire: “It is probable that the Coalition will win more third-party preferences.” (NB: This of course is absurd – Labor got 65 per cent of third party preferences, much as they always do – but I think we know what he’s trying to say.) (The Australian 6/9).
Lisa Wilkinson (to Wayne Swan): “Now, you won fewer primary votes, fewer two-party preferred votes and fewer seats.”
(Swan explains to her that she’s wrong.)
Wilkinson: “But in the end you got 49.9 per cent of the vote and the Opposition got 50.1.”
Swan: “No, I don’t think that’s … Lisa, that is not a final count.”
Wilkinson: “Well, that’s what the AEC is saying and that’s what Australia said at the polls.” (The Today Show, Nine Network, 9/9).
No doubt there were others.
Our troubles here began on August 30, when the AEC removed three electorates from the national total on the basis that the Labor-versus-Liberal counts there had been discontinued after election night, as it became apparent the Greens (in the case of Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (in the case of Denison) rather than the Liberals would face Labor at the final count. As three of the weakest seats in the land for the Liberals, these were by extension among the strongest seats for Labor in two-party terms. The resulting adjustment in Labor’s two-party vote from 50.4 per cent 50.0 per cent led to a great many uncomprehending reports of a “surge” to the Coalition, which had an added edge due to Julia Gillard’s post-election claim that Labor had, apparently, won the two-party vote. Those who wanted a clear and accurate exposition of the news had to ignore, say, The Australian, and look to an evidently more reliable source of information in Bob Brown, who explained the absence of eight electorates from the published result and correctly concluded: “If you look at the whole of Australia and you treat every seat equally, when you do that Labor’s ahead and is likely to keep that lead right the way through to the finishing pole.”
Antony Green defends journalists on the basis that they were within their rights to take an official AEC figure at face value, but I’m not so kind. Even if awareness of the missing electorates was too much to ask, those quoted above should at least have been aware that the count was incomplete. As it stands, we have a result that leaves those of us who had done the sums with exactly what we were expecting, and a lot of dopey pundits and dishonest politicians with egg on their faces.
UPDATE: Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 541 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35.5 per cent for Labor, 42.5 per cent for the Coalition and 15 per cent for the Greens. The margin of error on the poll is about 4.2 per cent.
UPDATE 2: As Peter Brent points out, the 52-48 result comes from the less reliable two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences – going on previous elections, which the most recent election has again vindicated as the superior method, Labor’s lead is only 50.5-49.5.
I don’t think that was their problem. So many things have happened in the wake of Abbott winning the Liberal leadership and the election that it’s difficult to attribute a singular cause at any rate. But it looks to me as if acknowledging the opposition’s position -and trying to address it – is the root cause.
Two things that (in retrospect at least, though there were many arguing this at the time as well) would have maintained Labor’s strong position:
1. Holding fast to committed positions. Which includes the ETS and the insulation scheme. One way to offset criticism of the insulation scheme – the most difficult of their policies – would have been to always frame any answers to questions about it in terms of its economic impact. It was an “emphatic success” in preventing a financial crisis in this country, and that can “never be in doubt”. Deaths? Keep responses well clear of opposition claims. Work safety practices are a state issue,and there is full confidence in the vast majority of operators to keep within the clear and strict guidelines. Anyone who abuses them will meet the full force of the law, especially as they are by their actions jeapordising the economic well-being of this country etc etc. Repeat until journalists get sick of asking.
That’s the sort of approach that should be applied to any future policy, too. You have to stand by your party’s position, or you run the risk of looking weak, and on the back foot, which Labor did. They had nothing to be ashamed of, but by the time Rudd got replaced they sure looked as if they did.
2. Self-promotion. Nothing’s good until everyone knows it is. If Rudd had a weakness while in power, that was it. He was so busy running around doing stuff that we never got to hear about what had been done. There was a constant feeling that he was confident people would “get” what he was doing without him having to spell it out. They didn’t of course; all Abbott had to to was step into that void and fill it with his own mutated version of the story. He had an easy job there, really. It’s looking a bit better under Gillard. But she’s had to suffer under a heavy weight of pre-conceptions.
Amid all the talk on this board about what Labor should and shouldn’t do, my opinion is that it all boils down to those two areas.
This is online Herald Sun this evening: Julia promises conscience vote
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/greens-move-to-legalise-euthanasia/story-e6frf7l6-1225926177527
Aguirre
I agree entirely with you regarding the handling of the insulation scheme. Rudd should have been forceful with the public regarding those who abused the scheme and those who flouted work safety rules. Instead he showed weakness. That was the beginning of the end for him.
victoria, Labor must take their heads out of the sand. The MSM is not going to care one iota about the new paridigm, spirit of cooperation, government of consensus, blah blah blah. Abbott will do his best to spoil, wreck and get his one liners into the nightly news. Labor MUST change their tactics
Andrew
What should Labor be doing right now?
Where do I start? Talking up the economy? Talking about the 2PP? Talking about what they are going to do about debt? Talking about how they are going to be different from last term? Talking about how Abbott is not the leader for the times? Talking about economic incompetance- Abbott’s black hole?
Bob Brown is the most formidable politician of our age. He has taken a hippie-bred band of eco-resistance protesters – the Tasmanian Wilderness Society – and turned it into a party that will hold the balance of power in Australian politics for the foreseeable future. Already, Labor cannot govern freely without the Greens. Soon, the LNP will be in the same position of dependence. This is a truly remarkable development. Bob Brown stands as the voice, architect, builder, engineer, project manager, owner, entrepreneur….historical force….that has inspired this extraordinary progression. I am no Green, but I have to admire his toughness and his skill. He is to the Environment what Nick Minchin is to Conservative Reaction.
.
[;1888 Doyley
Posted Sunday, September 19, 2010 at 7:54 pm | Permalink
The only way Abbott can destabilise the Government is on the floor of Parliament by splitting the Government coalition on a no confidence vote. However, what Abbott and co are doing at the moment is trying to destabilise through the media with their stupid and shrill rantings. They are still trying to win a election. What the voters think at the moment is irrelevant. Abbott has got nothing and the indies and the Greens know this. At this point in time they are the ones that count.]
come in to turn off computer have read as i do, and really enjoyed this post.
also when you consider that QLD WA and parts of NSW may be the only ones listening to tone and his followers and the rest of us may be going YAWN.
I also think Julia knows what she is doing, I am just looking forward to parliment commencing and QT then we will see the true opp in all their glory. Bronnie and her book, Pyne and his interruptions Joe shaking his head etc.
ITs the best show on tv. Thats when the people in the other states will recall just what they have in opposition its called now because they oppose every thing.
lizzie what type of chickens do you have.
Andrew
Economy has been talked up countless times. They have said that the debt will be in suprlus by 2013, 3 years early countless times. Julia has now stated many times that she will govern with a consensus style. She has said many times that Abbott has no vision for Australia. She has talked about the black hole many times as well.
Nothing really said about the 2pp, but what does it matter. The indies were not influenced by that when they decided to go with Labor.
we can talk till we are blue in the face about the msm, Julia just has to talk to the people and deliver good policy with consensus and thats all she needs to do really and i am sure she can do it.
the abc will gradully have a new board, and MD and that will be interesting to watch.
Yes Victoria, despite these “countless” times, half the voters voted for the coalition. Hope the govt is not in as much denial as you are.
I love Julia but she has NOT performed well media-wise since her elevation. Look at the ministry announcements/titles. She has to lift her game.
my say
not sure if lizzie still on. She said good night earlier on.
my say, you are wrong IMO. The govt MUST manage their message better. The MSM is what it is, they have to redouble their efforts and start campaigning for the next election now.
The previous govt made a huge error in thinking the voters will see good governance and reward it. Sorry but the voters aint that smart
Victoria at @1890 thanks for that.
Andrew at @1892
Fair call. But I think the situation is now different. Julia had a very short time to “do the housework and clean up loose ends” before the election. I don’t think Julia almost lost the election. As far as I am concerned she did a good job. My understanding is in the very last Newspoll labor was actually ahead on better economic managers. The election was lost in my home state of Queensland for a number of reasons not all of which were based on sanity.
Julia now has three years. She has the greens and the indies on her side to promote the policies they all have ownership in. This is not a short game. Do not underestimate Julia. Continue to show disclipine, let the narrative develop and CC policy, the NBN etc. will be there to promote. Continue to push good overall economic management but sadly, because of past mistakes, the BER, insulation are done and dusted as points of attack. Defend these issues by all means but concentrate on what is now happening and what will happen and push these angles.
What i am saying is there is no need to play Abbotts game. No need to rush. Follow the game plan. Julia Gillard knows what has to be done. Keep the faith.
gosh rudd has to lift his game Julia has to lift her game.
all gets tedious i think after all , she is not supper woman and she will learn as she goes.
For goodness sake, give the girl a chance. And stand for parliment yourself may be
i am like lizzie off now to hug my dog and oh.
[What should Labor be doing right now?]
Victoria, Labor should do what it does the best ensure social, political, cultural and economic justice
The Liberals are not bright. But soon they will realise that they let this election get away. It was theirs to win, and they just fumbled it. They allowed Labor to hold on and then completely fouled up the post-election manouvres. They will come to understand that Tony is not going to be able to spend the next 3 years with his mantra…..STOP, STOP, STOP.
The world will move along, the electorate will return to its usual hibernation from politics. The media will be giving its attention to the Government and its allies. The economy and the budget will move in Labor’s favour. Labor will lose office in NSW and QLD and the prospects for federal Labor will probably improve immediately.
And then the Liberals will ask themselves, how can they win with Abbott? And they will conclude they cannot!
Andrew
Half the population voted for the coalition because Labor got rid of a leader a few weeks before an election. This is after dumping ETS and insulation scheme. Introducing a mining tax without consultation. The media were not to blame for those things. Labor did that all on their own. Hardly a ringing endorsement for a govt. Following which there were leaks that destabilised the govt further. It is actually a miracle they have an opportunity to govern at all.
my say 1908
I totally agree. Question Time is certainly the best thing on TV.
The whole Fib gang have nowhere to hide with the camera rolling.
Hope the keep Amanda Rishworth & Yvette D’Ath in their present seats so I can watch them make faces at Mesma.
Will miss Wilson Tuckey though.
Victoria
Perhaps she could grant the MSM more interviews. Soften up the journos. I’m sure she is approached endlessly for interviews. Grant a few journos favourable access so she can get her positive message out there. If she is taken out of context, misquoted etc, then cut their access.
Nothing kills a journo quicker than being denied access.
They all had it during the election but they’ll be fighting for it now.
The Finnigans
Hear Hear!
ON SBS now – The Dis-Integration of UK. Sad.
Dee
Yes, that could work.
[What i am saying is there is no need to play Abbotts game. No need to rush. Follow the game plan. Julia Gillard knows what has to be done. Keep the faith.]
well said watch qt she would have all that the opp. has said in her mind and she is just waiting for the correct time and that is parliment where you see on the news of evening hopefully, opp. in full flight and Julia being her calm and knowledgeable self.
gee that girls got an amazing memory for figures and policy knowledge and she delivers it like a lawyer in a court room.
[gosh rudd has to lift his game Julia has to lift her game.
all gets tedious i think after all , she is not supper woman and she will learn as she goes.
For goodness sake, give the girl a chance. And stand for parliment yourself may be
i am like lizzie off now to hug my dog and oh.]
My say. You are an absolute Gem. 🙂
[Will miss Wilson Tuckey though.]
yes me to and then there is the court jester.
I t reminds me of the old Henry 8th musicals.
thanks dee. dont contribute much these days, i still warn out from the election
any one else , i dont think i have stopped yawning although i have finished the quilt
i have been making during the election, as i sat here
ashame i cannot show you all
Reading over some of the comments from the last few pages, I think the best advice really is to go and hug a dog or something. That’s it for me for the day. Been fun reading all the advice to the ALP, but I’ve reached critical mass.
doyley, briefly and my say, no one is a bigger Labor and Gillard supporter than me. The worst thing Labor can do is say we did OK, lets just continue as before.
Abbott plays dirty, sneaky and hate to say it, smart. The MSM loves him and will continue to give him a great run- he’s been wronged after all. The MSM want to report problems and scandals and as we saw with BER, even when the govt has success.
Gillard has to take on Abbott. Labor HAS to change the way they do things, including in the media. Full stop
just one more comment.
I think if you look very closley you will see Julia has changed the game.
from memory kevin would comment on what they said, nearly everything they said, and then it would go around and around in circles.
Julia is doing what a mum does ignoring the teenagers., and just getting on with running the house,
my say, ignoring and not changing? The best way to lose next time
the msm are the ones who will need to adapt
I expect a few too be called out under parliamentary privelege
some juicy stuff is ripe for the picking
gusface, the MSM are not going to adapt. They are going to distort and misrepresent Labor and prop up and support the Coalition.
Labor HAS to go after them. Strongly
[Perhaps she could grant the MSM more interviews. Soften up the journos. I]
I think this is happening more already, Dee.
There have been more pressers by the PM and ministers in the past week or so, since the ‘decision’. They just need to keep it up with relevant info.
My say
I’m worn out from the election also.
Keep ducking outside to hear a Beatles cover band.
Really good stuff! Just listened to Twist & Shout. Doing Hey Jude now.
Wow! Rain, cold, band playing and fireworks.
What a set!
[There have been more pressers by the PM and ministers in the past week or so, since the ‘decision’. They just need to keep it up with relevant info.]
End the pressers I say. Gillard has been giving pressers where all journos have access.
Selective is the key.
andrew
i agree
but at the same time it is better to let the parliament initiate an enquiry into media ownership and influence
I expect a certain attitude change to happen
also it allows the chance to make submissions and put on record individuals treachery and incompetence
i for one am prepapring a lenghty submission using such sources a the pol sword, here and pollytics
also a bit of lobbying is happening in getup to bring the msms to account
and our green friends have dedicated Sen ludlam to coordinate the response
lets see what happens
gus, will the parliament have the guts for such an enquiry? I doubt it
Aguirre @1901…
You are absolutely spot on; the rot set in with exhaustion, capitulation and confession. It was silly.
Now Labor must act and proclaim its actions.
Well done, Aguirre.
[End the pressers I say. Gillard has been giving pressers where all journos have access.
Selective is the key.]
That too — but pressers are obligatory for the news outlets. SLY and ABC24 generally play them as they happen, therefore they cannot ‘edit’ to suit their own message goal.
BUt yes, she should foster some strategic relationships (if she doesn’t have them already).
Oh no! Bagpipes.
andrew
yep,if it was just labor
but our green friends have been burnt badly by the msm
i expect their zeal to more than match the labor types demand for redress
😉
[I can see that this has really upset you. From my point of view, nothing the coalition have done and are doing surprises me in any shape or form. They will say and do anything. I don’t see how this behaviour can get the indies on side.]
It is the poverty of critical reporting so far, rather than the coalition’s obscene twisting of its own failings, that actually troubles me most, victoria.
I should really give them until tomorrow before becoming too sensorial I guess, but I have yet to see any media outlet actually raise even the tamest of questions about Morrison’s absurd claims, let alone treat this junk with the utter contempt it truly deserves.
Will anything of great political moment happen between now and the resumption of Parliament?
[some juicy stuff is ripe for the picking]
Gus comrade, it’s time for revolution, well you know ……
Bk
barnyard gets his millions and billions right?
Rod, Tone and his cronies know they can say absolutely ANYTHING without the slightest MSM pressure or criticism. Its a disgrace
[barnyard gets his millions and billions right?]
Now that WOULD be something Gus!
BK
you heard it here first
(ps i understand barnyard has been doing research into one fish, two fish, red fish, go fish)
The IPA runs it regularly to explain fishcial mattters
😉