The Australian Electoral Commission has finalised the last of its two-party preferred Labor-versus Coalition counts, and it confirms Labor has won a narrow victory on the national total of 6,216,439 (50.12 per cent) to 6,185,949 (49.88 per cent), a margin of 30,490. If distinctions to the second decimal place are what matters to you, Labor did about 0.05 per cent worse than last time due to the arbitrary fact of the Nationals finishing ahead of Wilson Tuckey in O’Connor, meaning the AEC finalised a two-party result on a Nationals-versus-Labor basis where the 2007 Liberal-versus-Labor result was more favourable to them. So while I think it reasonable to cite the published figure as the definitive national result, a slight discount should be factored in when considering the matter of the swing, which should properly be rounded to 2.5 per cent rather than 2.6 per cent.
Whatever the specifics, the result leaves quite a few people looking foolish:
Barnaby Joyce: “We’d won the two-party preferred vote by the time the independents made their decision.” (Lateline, 7/9).
Andrew Bolt: “Labor won fewer votes, fewer seats of its own and less of the two-party preferred vote.” (Herald Sun, 8/9).
Alan Jones: “Is it a healthy democracy when a party wins the majority of the two party preferred, wins the majority of the primary vote and wins more seats in the Parliament than the other party but the other party forms government?” (2GB, 8/9).
Sarah Martin: “Yesterday, Julia Gillard’s Labor Party won government despite losing the primary vote and the two-party-preferred vote, or securing a majority of seats.” (The Advertiser, 7/9).
Kerry Chikarovski: “The Coalition won the primary vote, they won the two-party preferred …” (The Drum, 7/9).
Lateline: “Labor loses two-party preferred vote” (report headline, 30/8).
Kenneth Wiltshire: “It is probable that the Coalition will win more third-party preferences.” (NB: This of course is absurd – Labor got 65 per cent of third party preferences, much as they always do – but I think we know what he’s trying to say.) (The Australian 6/9).
Lisa Wilkinson (to Wayne Swan): “Now, you won fewer primary votes, fewer two-party preferred votes and fewer seats.”
(Swan explains to her that she’s wrong.)
Wilkinson: “But in the end you got 49.9 per cent of the vote and the Opposition got 50.1.”
Swan: “No, I don’t think that’s … Lisa, that is not a final count.”
Wilkinson: “Well, that’s what the AEC is saying and that’s what Australia said at the polls.” (The Today Show, Nine Network, 9/9).
No doubt there were others.
Our troubles here began on August 30, when the AEC removed three electorates from the national total on the basis that the Labor-versus-Liberal counts there had been discontinued after election night, as it became apparent the Greens (in the case of Batman and Grayndler) or Andrew Wilkie (in the case of Denison) rather than the Liberals would face Labor at the final count. As three of the weakest seats in the land for the Liberals, these were by extension among the strongest seats for Labor in two-party terms. The resulting adjustment in Labor’s two-party vote from 50.4 per cent 50.0 per cent led to a great many uncomprehending reports of a “surge” to the Coalition, which had an added edge due to Julia Gillard’s post-election claim that Labor had, apparently, won the two-party vote. Those who wanted a clear and accurate exposition of the news had to ignore, say, The Australian, and look to an evidently more reliable source of information in Bob Brown, who explained the absence of eight electorates from the published result and correctly concluded: “If you look at the whole of Australia and you treat every seat equally, when you do that Labor’s ahead and is likely to keep that lead right the way through to the finishing pole.”
Antony Green defends journalists on the basis that they were within their rights to take an official AEC figure at face value, but I’m not so kind. Even if awareness of the missing electorates was too much to ask, those quoted above should at least have been aware that the count was incomplete. As it stands, we have a result that leaves those of us who had done the sums with exactly what we were expecting, and a lot of dopey pundits and dishonest politicians with egg on their faces.
UPDATE: Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 541 respondents conducted on Wednesday and Thursday evening which has Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 35.5 per cent for Labor, 42.5 per cent for the Coalition and 15 per cent for the Greens. The margin of error on the poll is about 4.2 per cent.
UPDATE 2: As Peter Brent points out, the 52-48 result comes from the less reliable two-party measure based on respondent-allocated preferences – going on previous elections, which the most recent election has again vindicated as the superior method, Labor’s lead is only 50.5-49.5.
Victoria
[I think Labor’s strategy is ignore, ignore, ignore.]
They used the strategy of ignore, ignore & it almost cost them the election.
[Rod, Morrison has gotten and will get away with it. Thats right, its Labors fault that detainees are compensated for their treatment under Howard. And the MSM look the other way]
Well, I’m going to do my dangdest to make sure that he doesn’t, and I suggest others do their best to do likewise. This one is worth serious bombardment of the ABC board, journalists (who are currently simply reporting it in Morrison’s terms) and “talkback hosts” together with all of the major newspapers. If the coalition can get away with this sort of tripe unscathed then why bother worrying about politics?
Dee
I agree with your sentiments. But try to imagine Labor engaging the Libs at the moment. The Libs will scream instability. A govt unfit to govern blah blah blah. My gut instinct tells me that Labor are employing a certain strategy right now. Remember they need to focus on getting through the parliamentary sittings. Do you get what I mean?
Arbib confirms he is not a faceless man!
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/im-not-a-faceless-labor-man-mark-arbib-says/story-e6frf7l6-1225926255055
The real issue is can the Libs maintain any discipline.
Already we’ve had Turnbull contradicting stated policy on the need for Carbon pricing and today Pyne weighing in to the NBN syaing the Libs might change their found objects and paperclip broadband rollout policy.
Are they a rabble or just following the model used by their illustrous Leder to climb the greasy pole of political advancement.
[All of these is public’s reasonable wishs , as opposed to th false implied claim that public objects to accepting into oz those A-S fleeing for there lifes ]
Australians are against queue jumping boat people.
We have no problem with filling our 13,500 quota of refugee’s every year with real refugee’s from real refugee camps.
Now for some reason… one I still don’t get the left are dead against this. The 13,500 positions they want filled by queue jumpers paying $15K, passing through several safe havens, burning their ID papers and support criminal gangs.
Can anyone say leftwing Ideological bullshit?
GG
Most of the yapping to date has been from the coalition. They are all ranting and raving and carrying on. I just hope by the time Parliament sits, they have talked themselves silly!
[ Do you get what I mean?]
Yeah, I do but I’m as mad as hell. My fear is that we will see a repeat of pre-election behaviour of the ALP.
Where Rabbott & Co. will be ignored as an acrid smell whilst gaining momentum based on lies.
[I think Labor’s strategy is ignore, ignore, ignore.]
Yep that was Labors strategy for the last 3 years, hasn’t panned out too well for them.
When Howard had to deal with unpopular issues, he’d actually talk and deal with it and throw everything at it including the kitchen sink. Rudd/Gillies just pretend there isn’t any problem and let anger build up in the community that their concerns are being ignored. Lets see how that plan pans out for them.
Dee
I feel as you do. I find it incredulous that the fibs can say any outrageous thing, and not be challenged at all by the media. Julia made a specific plea in her speech last night directed at the Fibs. They have absolute no interest in co-operating at all. The ALP have to work extremely hard at the moment preparing themselves to combat the onslaught by the Fibs in Parliament. They need to be fully prepared and ready to respond when needed.
[Australians are against queue jumping boat people.]
Those flying in by plane because they have ID, passports & the means to get here are also queue jumpers. Do we hear about them?
Hell no!
Do we hear about the 60,000 visitors under Howard that flew in & just disappeared into the landscape?
Hell no!
And the 400 orphans Toofy? Some as young as 11 years old.
Do we condemn them to child prostitution in Indonesia?
The rights position on boatpeople is actually more humane thans the lefts… thats the irony of the entire thing.
The right want the U.N and Australia to pick the most desperate and needy to fill the very precious 13,500 positions available for humanatarian positions every year. The left want people smugglers, criminal gangs and people from Indonesia who have passed through half a dozen safe havens to choose themselves as the most desperate.
To me… the lefts position is complete untenable, immoral and absolutely pig stupid and filled with ideological rot and bile. Get over yourselves. If we shut down all boat arrivals tommorow, 13,500 real refugee’s get their spots. Brilliant!
[Those flying in by plane because they have ID, passports & the means to get here are also queue jumpers. Do we hear about them?]
What, those invited in by Australia after spending years in refugee camps and filling out all required forms and paper work?
Thats not jumping the queue, thats being PART of the queue.
I am closing down for the night, as I will not stay to read rude and insulting messages from someone on this blog.
Sleep well everyone else.
lizzie
have a good night!
Toofy
I’m glad you are back.
Just tell me how your beloved Rabbott is going to open Nauru. Moylan & Broadbent said the Rabbott needs their support to get the policy passed. They have vowed to vetoe it. It’s a policy that will never exist.
They feel no shame about piggy backing on the misery of others.
Truly, the Rabbott is a despicable man.
Thanks, victoria. Bless you.
An end to the boring argument about asylum seekers, please.
[What, those invited in by Australia after spending years in refugee camps and filling out all required forms and paper work?]
No!
The ones who fly here, arrive at the airport & then claim asylum.
Truthy
13500 real refugees get spots every year now.
Yours is a strange argument for a lib. I thought you were in favour of privatisation.
[When Howard had to deal with unpopular issues, he’d actually talk and deal with it and throw everything at it including the kitchen sink.]
And indulge in barbaric approaches to human beings, cost the Australian tax payer substantial amounts of money in compensation as a result, and then, through his love child Tony Abbott’s new barbarity spinner, Scott Morrison, blame such costs on the next government that came along.
Sorry TTH. This one involves dirty tricks that are way beyond the pale, even for the Coalition.
Sorry William.
Go (anyone but Pies) Saints!
[Just tell me how your beloved Rabbott is going to open Nauru. Moylan & Broadbent said the Rabbott needs their support to get the policy passed. They have vowed to vetoe it. It’s a policy that will never exist.]
If Abbott had won the Prime Ministership, I have no doubt Labor would have voted in support of Nauru.
Labor have been full of bile about this whole thing, but just like in 2001 they will realise the political reality that Australians want tougher border protection, not softer.
[An end to the boring argument about asylum seekers, please.]
Fair enuf
Lizzy
Goodnight & enjoy.
Rod Hagen
I can see that this has really upset you. From my point of view, nothing the coalition have done and are doing surprises me in any shape or form. They will say and do anything. I don’t see how this behaviour can get the indies on side.
GG as long as the media do not engage the Opposition with hard questions and bring them to account then Abbott and his team of liars and spin merchants will continue to get away with anything.
I have made so many complaints to the ABC during and after the election with not one reply apart from the standard ‘thankyou for your comment etc….we are treated like idiots by this tax payer funded mob
Thanks Dee
I have one golden baby chicken to tuck up for the night.
Poultry outshines politics (today, anyway!)
[I have one golden baby chicken to tuck up for the night.
Poultry outshines politics (today, anyway!)]
Especially when it loses it’s heart. Politics that is. 🙂
suspect that indies would prefer to go to another election rather than support TA
While we are at it Gusface and TSOP – lets go for a MMP with 5% threshold, while still adhering to the constitution and assuming the seats are consolidated approximately 1 to 2 :
Something like:
NT -1 seat, 1 list
2 CLP
ACT – 1 seat, 1 list
2 ALP
NSW –
24 seats
13 ALP
8 Lib
2 Nat
1 Ind
24 List
10 ALP
9 Lib
3 Green
2 Nat
NSW Total
23 ALP
17 Lib
4 Nat
3 Green
1 Ind
Victoria
18 Seats
11 ALP
6 Lib
1 Nat
19 List
8 ALP
7 Lib
2 Green
Last seat Green/FFP or Nat – lets say Nat
Total Victoria
19 ALP
13 Lib
3 Green
2 Nat
QLD
15 Seats
ALP 4
LNP 10
Ind 1
15 List
LNP 7
ALP 5
Greens 2
Last seat FFP or ALP – let’s say FFP
Total Qld
LNP 17
ALP 9
Greens 2
FFP 1
Ind 1
WA
7 Seats
ALP 2
Lib/Nat 5
8 List
ALP 3
Lib 4
Green 1
Total WA
ALP 5
Lib Nat 9
Green 1
SA
5 Seat
ALP 3
Lib 2
6 List
ALP 2
Lib 2
Green 1
FFP 1
Total SA
ALP 5
Lib 4
Green 1
FFP 1
Tasmania
2 Seats
1 ALP
1 ALP/Wilkie/Green – lets say ALP
3 List
1 ALP
1 Lib
1 Green
Total Tas
ALP 3
Lib 1
Green 1
National Total:
ALP 66
Lib 44
LNP 17
CLP 2
Nat 6
Green 11
FFP 2
Ind 2
ALP/Green Coalition – 77 All others 73
Pretty much the same result as all the others
How woud you change the ABC Charter?
Aside from more funding and input from think-tanks that aren’t the IPA, what else could improve the ABC?
i suggest that journalists refrain from using emotional language in headlines and copy that is not an opinion editorial.
purge abc journalist staff?
The ABC’s job is to be an independent source of information and news for the masses, not a spokesperson for the federal government.
On that point they are doing a good job.
purging the board?
cut funding?
Just stepped outside to hear a Beatles cover band. Gee, they are good.
[The ABC’s job is to be an independent source of information and news for the masses, not a spokesperson for the federal government.]
Neither should they be the mouthpiece for the opposition.
On that point they are doing an appalling job.
The only way Abbott can destabilise the Government is on the floor of Parliament by splitting the Government coalition on a no confidence vote. However, what Abbott and co are doing at the moment is trying to destabilise through the media with their stupid and shrill rantings. They are still trying to win a election. What the voters think at the moment is irrelevant. Abbott has got nothing and the indies and the Greens know this. At this point in time they are the ones that count.
Julia is letting Abbott go at the moment for a reason. Give him oxygen. Let him rant. Let him commit to opposing everything and trying to destablise the process of Parliament. The CC committee will get under way, Telstra and the government will reach a final agreement within the next two or three months with the financial viability of the NBN confirmed as Telstra takes the proposal to its shareholders and the mining tax will be finalised through the Argus negotiations.
The Government coalition will succeed because it has to. Labor, the Greens and the indies have too much political capital at stake to let it fail. This is what Abbott and sections of the MSM fail to recognise. The election will come in three years, Labors’ programmes will be a success because of the scrutiny put into them as a result of the new reality and because they are not being rushed under the cloud of a GFC.
Give Julia credit, she knows what she is doing. Follow the game plan, show disclipine. Abbott will not last three years. Robb can only feed him so many pills to keep him under control. The party will fracture through the Turnbull CC faultline.
Keep the faith and the line will hold.
[An end to the boring argument about asylum seekers, please.]
Bilbo, please tell that to Abbott & Morrison. Thank you.
No more STOP THE BOATS?
Doyley
You have articulated my sentiments. Thank you.
[Aside from more funding and input from think-tanks that aren’t the IPA, what else could improve the ABC?]
Sack the board.
Install people who have no political affilliations.
Bring back investigative journalism & refrain from emotive ‘headliners’ for starters.
Quite frankly Doyley, we have heard this “just trust Julia” a number of times, and guess what, she almost lost the election. She lost the economic argument and the campaign. She is sorely mistaken if she thinks the MSM and by extension the public will recognise good government without a significant shift in their marketing and media strategy. It is simply not good enough to go with business as usual.
[Robb can only feed him so many pills to keep him under control. ]
Oh strange, i thought Robb needs the pills himself to keep himself under control
[ mistaken if she thinks the MSM and by extension the public will recognise good government without a significant shift in their marketing and media strategy. It is simply not good enough to go with business as usual.]
I agree! They have to sell their achievements & the direction they want to take this country.
Andrew
I think you are missing the point entirely. Julia has asked for a spirit of co-operation and goodwill. The Libs have rejected this. The Libs have stated that they will ferociously hold the govt to account. Fine. They are ranting and raving and trying to reel in the govt to have a shit fight with them on a number of issues. Asylum seekers, carbon tax, mining tax and the NBN. The govt need to focus on preparing and negotiating these policies with the greens and indies. They do not need to argue with the Libs via the media. It will serve absolutely no purpose but to give the Libs oxygen to say the govt is unstable and unworkable.
Honestly, the Libs should be ignored at the moment they are irrelevant.
[ Aside from more funding and input from think-tanks that aren’t the IPA, what else could improve the ABC?]
Institute penalties for breach of Charter. ‘Ordinary’ employees of the Public Service face disciplinary action, ranging up to criminal charges, for breach of their rules. The ABC should not be treated any different. Disciplinary action up to and including criminal charges for breach of Charter. Mae the Charter mean something and have teeth. Make it something to be feared, as opposed to brazenly defied. The shit from the ABC has gone on for long enough.
Dee
Julia gave a speech last night that incorporated the achievements to date and the direction they want to take the country in the future.
I agree Dee. They should be campaigning already in a more obvious way about what their intentions are for the country and they should make people feel more connected to their government. It might be a good idea to make a new version of town-hall meetings for backbenchers and marginal seat holders to hold to educate their constituency in the policies of the government, and correct myths.
[Julia gave a speech last night that incorporated the achievements to date and the direction they want to take the country in the future.]
I didn’t see the delivery but the transcript looked good. The problem is regularity.
A good backslapping speech every now & again will not be enough, especially with the MSM working against you.
jlg24
Yep! Bring back the town hall meetings & invite constituents to vent their concerns & educate.
[1721
Kersebleptes
Oh well, it looks like briefly now has the Greens to hang his/her obsessive hatred on ………..won’t have the time to kick Rudd with Bob Brown in the sights…
Greens leader Bob Brown wants Labor’s revised 30 per cent mineral resource rent tax (MRRT) raised back to its original 40 per cent rate.]
I do not hate Rudd.
As for the MRRT…..if Bob wants to STOP THE TAX….then he is going the right way about it. Odds on, the Government would rather drop the tax than negotiate, discuss, debate, increase, rename, re-think, upgrade or re-frame the dreaded minerals tax. And, of course, Bob knows this. He is just having a bit of fun at Labor’s expense, in his own ruthlessly greener-than-thou way. Would he like a Liberal Government? He might get one.