Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.

UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,161 comments on “Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39”

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  2. [3067 grey
    Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 1:22 pm | Permalink
    Wallaroo silos on fire, evacuation for a 3 k radius, I’m gone, dog and family]

    Scary, hope all is okay.

  3. [Warren calls it]

    Well Joyce called the election for Labor on election day. Nobody outside the leadership team will have a clue which way the independents are leaning.

  4. How can the independents maintain any source of credibility if they back the coalition given their dodgy costings. That being the case they should just get on with it and back the ALP and put us all out of misery.

  6. Thanks Punna.

    And for those who think Big Hat Bob’s mad, try this (from his Leichhardt neighbour, Warren Entsch) for fully rabid:

    [He accused Prime Minister Julia Gillard of making unrealistic promises to secure the support of the MPs.

    “It seems to me that Julia Gillard will promise anything to get power,” he said.

    “She’ll promise them the bloody world, and then when she’s in government they’ll go feral, and she’ll blame them and have that as a reason to go back (to the polls).]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/independents-will-support-labor-party-says-coalitions-warren-entsch/story-e6frf7kf-1225914729133

  8. [spur, he didnt have a blog post or OO article after the costings release. That’s silence]

    He didn’t really come to grips with much in those articles you linked spur. There was no great delving into the policies or costings.

  9. and further to that OPT

    “The way Tony is going, I agree with him completely. You only agree to what is achievable,” he said.
    “There were certain things you can go along with, but when you start talking about some of the things (Bob Katter) is talking about, particularly in relation to trade tariffs, there is no point in even offering them because they are not achievable.”

    so we can expect the new Opposition to accuse a JG government of reintroducing tarrifs presumably.

  10. [Having placed FF’s Bob Day (or was it Bob Day’s FF?) 42 out of 42 on the ballot paper that makes me feel good.]

    Bingo ! BK Me too 😀

  11. Itep
    [Well Joyce called the election for Labor on election day. Nobody outside the leadership team will have a clue which way the independents are leaning.]
    Did you like the part of the article where Warren says Gillard will do anything to get elected.
    The Rabbott on the other hand will only offer what is achievable.
    😀 😀 😀

  15. [Add the Picasso museum; a study in the development of independent genius – at least it was 3 decades ago.]
    Still good. And the Fundacio Joan Miro is good too.

  16. Andrew @ 3085
    True, true. But he did comment on the ludicrous ‘audit’ scenario from memory. To my mind he tries to avoid politicizing from unknowns and concentrates on what’s out there. Opposition costings are notorious in their ambiguity no matter where they originate from. But I can well understand you being frustrated. Unfortunately, as we’ve just discovered our fellow Australians are diverse in priorities and thoughts. George is entitled to dictate the content of his articles as he sees fit… the bonus is, that what he writes has merit… and this is a good thing. That’s all.

  21. vera

    [ Not much chance of getting rid of Murdock if his Melb Storm getting away with rorts is anything to go by. ]

    There should be a Royal Commission into this. We know News Ltd is up to its eyeballs.

  22. Essential say THEY provided the most accurate pre-election poll?? Sorry, it was Newspoll, who by the way looks like it will be bang on the money

  24. [Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 1:38 pm | Permalink
    OPT: The weekend rain brought the frogs of Marrickville out in force]

    I love frogs, have since I was a kid, when there were zillions, coming out after rain like delicious wild mushrooms. A few survived the drought in our sewer line; but we’ve had oodles of croakless rain this year. 🙁

  26. [What is Entsch even talking about? Robb already came out and said the Coalition could meet most of Katter’s list.]

    It’s either a personal dummy spit because Bob’s next door or he’s laying the foundation for attacks on the government to come. or both.

  27. [Most of the 52% wanting a fresh election will be rusted ons from both sides thinking their side will not form government.]
    Makes sense, watch that number drop once a winner is declared

  28. TPP at the moment

    ALP 49.98- 50.02

    LNP is about 5,000 votes ahead.

    I expect that the normal counting of the 142 electorates will put the
    Coalition even further ahead, say by about 13,000 votes. That is
    ALP 49.95- 50.05.

    Then, some of the remaining eight seats are a little hard to estimate
    but my best guess is that the ALP will get a nett 31,000 votes from
    those seats (down from over 70,000 for those seats in 2007).

    Predicted Final result. ALP 50.13- LNP 49.87
    (or ALP ahead by about 18,000 votes).

  29. [Most of the 52% wanting a fresh election will be rusted ons from both sides thinking their side will not form government.]

    I’m not sure my sanity could take another campaign.

  31. [Sophie Mirabella – (honey trap)

    I am stressed enough without having to contemplate this.]
    Sorry Rocket – we’re all a bit highly strung.

  32. Dr Good, I read that out of the remaining electorates with less than 90% counted (8 seats excepted), 2/3 favour Labor. Why do you assume the coalition will increase its lead

  33. [With billions of dollars wasted in botched privatisations and a key portfolio, Defence, in costly disarray, the Howard Government’s first three terms had yielded a regular series of large-scale bungles.
    Things did not improve greatly in its final term. The construction of the Christmas Island Detention Centre saw big delays and a huge blowout in cost. The Education Department was mauled for not administering any of its private school funding agreements correctly. The Agriculture Department appeared to have not bothered keeping records as to how it handed out tens of millions of dollars in grants for the fishing industry.]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/09/06/lessons-in-competence-part-2-the-need-for-speed/#comments

    Bernard Keane pointing out the Howard Govt. waste. Labor had heaps of answers to Abbott’s ‘stop the waste’ if only they’d had the wherewithal to use them.

  34. Don’t worry yo ho ho. There won’t be a new campaign. There will be plenty of calls from the losing side’s supporters for a fresh election though 😉

    I’ve already seen the first murmurings of it on here.

  35. BG: toc toc to you too.

    OPT: The frogs as well as being appealing are of course a reminder of why climate change and other environmental damage matters, they seem to be major canaries in our global coalmine.

  36. [It’s either a personal dummy spit because Bob’s next door …]

    And comparisons are odious!

    If Bob does back Julia, his Green Power corridor & NBN “from Mt Isa to the sea” really do go marching through Kennedy, and he wins back some fishing rights for “Wild Rivers” in his electorate, the chances of Leichhardt going Indie and/ or Green next election will go sky high – it’s a volatile electorate with changing demographics.

  40. [ the national daily reported in just two paragraphs that its own Newspoll, like another survey conducted by the Fairfax press, showed a significant majority wanted the Independents to side with Labor. This may have been a result of the revelations of the opposition’s $10.6 billion costing fiasco, dismissed by The Australian’s economic apologist Michael Stutchbury as “not a black hole, just a few potholes” — some potholes. The Australian chose to emphasise its earlier poll showing most voters in the Independents own electorates preferred the coalition — this poll was, of course, taken before the revelation about costings.

    It seemed an entirely fitting note on which to wrap up its election coverage — self-seeking, trivial, misleading and above all very, very dumb. There have been many losers in the 2010 election, but none more to be pitied than those who relied on News Limited for their political information. If only we had enough independents to force a reform agenda on the monopolists of the media …]

    Good old Mungo in crikey today – it seems more and more people are ganging up on the OO for some reason.

  41. Great news about both FF senate conetenders falling behind on latest counts. I feel the courge of FF can be removed completely if they fail this time.

    By next time seante reform will hopefully end the whole “microparties get 1.8%, rig ticket votes” scourge from our system.

  42. I am not sure exactly where people get the information that an
    electorate is less than 90% counted from. Certainly there are some
    electorates with less than 90% of the enrolled numbers counted.
    However, we have to be careful with that as ALP electorates may
    be correlated with ones where not so many voters turned up to vote
    (and also where there were less formal votes).

    I looked at how many non-ordinary votes seem to be sitting there
    waiting to be counted towards the TPP count in the 142 seats.
    Thus I estimate the final total number for those seats.
    I think there are only two seats with less than 90% counted:
    Sydney 88.6% and Wentworth 89.8%.

    The other thing to note in my spreadsheet is that it is mostly
    postal votes that are still to be counted, maybe 200,000 postal votes,
    100,000 early votes, 100,000 absents and 10,000 provisionals.
    And postal votes often favour Libs even in ALP leaning seats.

  43. Gecko @3093 75-74 in votes of no confidence. In this case Labor would win, just. In other matters the indies would split their own way. It may lead to an early election, but not immediately.

  44. Dr Good, so what you mean is the postals in Lib held seats will increase the gap at a faster rate than the postals in the Labor seats will close it.

  45. [It may lead to an early election, but not immediately.]

    And probably not. There will be little incentive to go for an early election because it’d likely limit the next term in some way. I also think there is little chance for a DD as the next election.

  48. Psephos

    [

    Diogs, you should read Robert Hughes’s book on Bcn if you’re interested. He describes Gaudi as a Catholic ecstatic mystic]

    I flicked through that book one afternoon, just reading the bits about Gaudi.

    Hughes also wrote a brilliant book on Goya.

  50. No Itep

    I mean that even in a seat that favours the ALP like say Kingsford Smith
    which is 55-45% ALP overall, the postal votes might favour the Libs,
    as they do 55-45% to Libs in that seat.

    Thus we have already counted say 93% of the votes in that seat and they
    have been added to the national TPP total, but the if the remaining 7% of votes
    are mainly postal votes, then when we add them then the Libs will
    go further ahead.

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