Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.

UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,161 comments on “Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39”

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  2. [Well I can recommend BCN to anyone who’s going to Europe. Like Paris, but cheaper, and on the seashore. Excellent food, lots of culture, and splendid 19th century architecture. The endless promotion of Gaudi does get a bit tiresome (like Mozart in Vienna), but he was a genius.]

    Seconded.

  3. Thanks William.

    Greeting true believers.

    In regard to one independent changing sides to avoid a draw. I suspect the story will be that they have all agreed not to divulge the one member who swapped sides. This is a move to avoid collateral damage in the home electorate and avoid attack after the result is known. Nobody will be able to pin who exactly the turncoat was. No matter what side the accuser hails from (i.e. whoever loses) it could never be a concerted attack. And in the electorate, each would be given the benefit of the doubt from enough voters not to suffer too much in the next poll.
    You can draw your own conclusions as why this might be necessary but all three voting for JG would be my pick.

  5. [Thank you. If the croaking was anything to go by, we can confidently expect a plague of frogs]

    Lucky you, Boerwar. My fave Plague of Egypt. Drove through mist, mizzle & blinding rain for 6 hrs yesterday. Not one croak! Had c75mm in late Aug. Ditto!

    Hope the locusts miss you, though! We’ve already done them this year & I head on TV we might be in for another.

  6. 3037: No, his statement is quite clear.

    He is backing Labor to form government during the government formation stages, but the agreement lapses if they don’t and he has clearly stated he will ensure supply and confidence to a Coalition government, barring exceptional circumstances.

  7. Ronny wrote:

    Barbeque Bill

    “That would result in Labor 77-1 v. Coalition 74-1… 76 v. 73. ”

    Where did extra 151 st MP come from

    You are correctomundo, Ronny. It should be:

    “That would result in Labor 77-1 v. Coalition 73-1… 76 v. 72, with two non-voting Speakers ”

    Makes this scenario even more unstable.

  11. Gecko @3053, if they were that worried about damage control in their electorate (as opposed to worrying about good policy) they also have the opt out of one or two of their number simply agreeing to abstain.

  13. [Well I can recommend BCN to anyone who’s going to Europe. Like Paris, but cheaper, and on the seashore. Excellent food, lots of culture, and splendid 19th century architecture. The endless promotion of Gaudi does get a bit tiresome (like Mozart in Vienna), but he was a genius.

    Second]

    Third

  15. [I’ve discovered where the doctors’ wives have been hiding out. In Chatswood North, the only booth in Bradfield won by Labor, and the only one to swing to Labor.]

    Herr Doktor, what about a big TQ to the Dolphin Families :kiss:

  16. OzPol Tragic

    [As was Abe Lincoln! And both must be turning in their graves!

    I thought it might be Teddy Bear, but didn’t know if it was his or the Yellowstone naturalist (John Burroughs – took me a while to get that googling right) who did the hard yards – and talking.]

    It is equally sad that the conservative side of Australian politics has slipped. It is good and well to support exisiting institutions and to make policy haste slowly; but to abandon reason and rationality is despairingly sad. When I heart the conservative leader of Australia telling children “it was warmer in jesuses time” my heart breaks.

  18. BH, I have lost all respect for George M. after he was silent about the costings before the election. He’s just as bad as the others at the OO

    I remember a couple of Insiders back. It was Fran Kelly, the lady journo from the Sun-Herald (forgotten her name) and George.

    Discussion about the potentially (then) dodgy costings went around the table. First Cassidy, then the two women had their say. George opened his mouth to speak, by his opening half a dozen or so words clearly criticising the Coaliton costings, but was silenced by Cassidy as they “had to move on” to the next subject.

    I was bloody outraged, especially as the other three had been into the meta politics of the costings issue (e.g. “Who leaked?”, “Why?” “Fairfax papers” etc.) and not the costings themselves, whereas GM was about to get stuck into the meat of them but was cut-off.

    He is a bit timid, actually, very socially conservative, but was prepared to have a go until gagged by Cassidy.

  20. @ 3062
    That’s true Cud but abstaining would result in another poll, and if not, bring a voter backlash and perhaps leave one of their number wearing the can. Its the only reason I can see as to why they would make a point of it now… particularly as you say they could abstain… but that’s not what they want to do I suspect.
    Happy returns also Psephos

  22. Gecko, no abstaining wouldn’t result in a new poll.

    As I said before, you could have one independent vote with Labor, one go with the Coalition and still another abstain and the net result would be 75-74.

  23. [1. Tony Abbott (bad cop- bust heads)
    2. Bill Heffernan (bad cop- break arms)
    3. Chris Pyne (good cop- special favors)]
    4. Sophie Mirabella – (honey trap)

  26. Hello amigos and bludgers

    Well not much has changed in the past week, it’s still will they or won’t they and if so who with and for how much! 😉 Damn Undies grr!

    Anyway all that is unimportant as I come to grips with my poor beaten Bunnies 😥
    Ah well the Swannies are still flying high.

  29. In defense of George M (for what its worth) I think he’s the been entirely reasonable throughout. Always measured and calls it as he sees it, whichever way it goes. You can’t ask for more than that in a democracy… all opinion adds to the mix.

  30. In the interests of balanced reporting, Labor has now drifted back to 1.41, up from the 1.30 I reported a couple of hours ago.

  34. [Has anyone done a study of how many male pedestrians have died perving at women?]

    they tried but could not get any feeback from the males

  36. Amigo Vera, it’s good to hear from you. yes, i watched the Swannie came home. it was quite exciting for a Ping Pong game.

    Da Rabbits? sorry, gave that up since it has become News Rugby League.

  37. OPT: The weekend rain brought the frogs of Marrickville out in force – plenty of striped marsh frogs spawning in the pond I put in for the purpose. Nothing very directly to do with the election but it made me happy

  39. From the AM report:

    Labor has readily agreed to Rob Oakeshott’s wish list for parliamentary reform but the Coalition believes some of the proposed changes will entrench the power of the government of the day and reduce an opposition’s ability to call it to account.

    So an Abbott government is fighting for the rights of a Labor opposition? Cant see Abbott winning this

  40. [Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 1:38 pm | Permalink
    OPT: The weekend rain brought the frogs of Marrickville out in force – plenty of striped marsh frogs spawning in the pond I put in for the purpose. Nothing very directly to do with the election but it made me happy
    ]

    Toc Toc

    🙂

  41. Hi Finns
    The Bunnies took News to court after they kicked us out for 2 years and beat the buggers.
    Bunny amigos kicked hombre Murdock’s arse 😉
    Gotta follow them for that alone (even though I been a Bunny since I was 6)

  45. [The independents seem to have talked to just about everybody.]
    There’s a suspicious looking character in a big hat outside of my place as we type….. 😆

  47. vera@3091

    Hi Finns
    The Bunnies took News to court after they kicked us out for 2 years and beat the buggers.
    Bunny amigos kicked hombre Murdock’s arse
    Gotta follow them for that alone (even though I been a Bunny since I was 6)

    The job’s not done yet. You have to kick Rupe out of the NRL (for good)
    to finish it…

  48. [“Well I can recommend BCN to anyone who’s going to Europe. Like Paris, but cheaper, and on the seashore. Excellent food, lots of culture, and splendid 19th century architecture. The endless promotion of Gaudi does get a bit tiresome (like Mozart in Vienna), but he was a genius.”

    Seconded.]

    “Thirded”. Add the Picasso museum; a study in the development of independent genius – at least it was 3 decades ago. And stand at the base of Columbus’s statue looking out to sea. Toledo’s great also, & San Sebastian. Haven’t made it to the Moorish south yet.

    It was odd how quickly, after we crossed the Pyrenees, the feeling of being in Europe disappeared – south of BCN, landscape, buildings & tumbleweed blowing across the road looked like something out of an old Western.

    Not sure I recommend Madrid. The Prado+Franco’s tomb (latter might’ve disappeared by now) really weirded me out. Many of the P’s pictures have a disturbing violence/ nastiness; so much so I found myself actually searching pictures for evidence of that until I couldn’t take it any longer. Oddly, until the 2nd episode of The Baroque I’d never found anyone who agreed with me. Franco’s tomb was as sick, but in a different way.

  50. [3092 James J
    Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 1:42 pm | Permalink
    The independents seem to have talked to just about everybody]
    how about the rodent!

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