Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.

UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,161 comments on “Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39”

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  1. Sean,

    Nope, I don’t need a walk, but by the rudeness of your reply you certainly do. I’ve been around political blogs for a very long time, so I’ve seen this all before.

    Far too many people are going beyond analysis and actually investing too much into this.

    People aren’t merely missing the forest for the trees, they’re examining every spot of lichen.

  2. Greetings Bludgers
    Been off planting trees along our bit of a river. The river god must have been irritated because all new plantings, around half our land, and around 1500 older plantings now under 1-2 metres of water.
    Such is life.

  3. The ALP didnt seem to be able to work it out during the election.

    true, a very unmusical performance from Jules and crew, but Wilkie has been on stage all of 5 mins, and he got a good tune out of them 🙂

    Wilkie of course had the advantage of a captive audience….

  4. [blue_green Conservation is a great moral issue, for it involves the patriotic duty of insuring the safety and continuance of the nation.]

    The USA politician ?president who lobbied / legislated for national “monument” (parks). I did hear it recently, but can’t remember anything else. It was familiar, so it was probably also mentioned in John D MacDonald’s Travis McGee books.

  5. Interesting to compare the different attitudes in the media on Sunday and this morning of the Labor and Lib pollies. Labor relaxed, pleasant, comfortable and Libs, edgy, pushy, complaining, demanding, full of excuses…..body language says a lot.

  6. BB
    Not sure why you saw my post as Rude. You seem to be pathologising what is a very normal process. If you’ve been around poltical blogs you’d know that a large proportion of it is speculation. This Blog has never been strictly confined to pure analysis and the fact that people are ‘investing too much in this’ is just a reflection of how important the outcome is to them. As I said before – very normal.

    Sorry if i’ve offended you in pointing this out.



    [Labor odds have shortened to 1.3 on Betfair 🙂 ]

    Not necessarily putting much stock in what the bookie predict any more after their election effort. On the morning of August 21 they all showed a resounding Labor victory. Regardless I can’t help asking … what price are they giving the fiberals at this point in time?

  8. Ozpol

    His contribution to global conservation is yet to be surpassed

    Not bad for a Republican

    [One of President Theodore Roosevelt’s most lasting and significant contributions to the world was the permanent preservation of the some of the most unique natural resources of the United States. According to the National Geographic, the area of the United States placed under public protection by Theodore Roosevelt, as National Parks, National Forests, game and bird preserves, and other federal reservations, comes to a total of approximately 230,000,000 acres or about 84,000 acres per day]

  9. Speaking of Oakeshott, 2 things:

    (1) My father (a resident of Port Macquarie) chatted to R.Oakeshott on the Monday right after the election. My father asked him what the most important issue was for him. RO answered NBN, no question. On that issue, RO said the last time he appeared on the 7:30 report he was forced to go to Coffs Harbour for the televised interview, which ticked him off mightily.

    (2) Over the weekend just passed RO put a full page ad in the local paper telling people not to phone him or email him, but to direct all correspondence to him as letters (snail-mail). I guess he’s being bombarded with crank calls and spam.

  10. BB, as usual, youre spot on. If the coalition got the 3 indies and Crook and their parliamentary reforms, they would get 74 votes once the speakers are removed. They cant possibly want this

  11. Barbeque Bill

    “That would result in Labor 77-1 v. Coalition 74-1… 76 v. 73. ”

    Where did extra 151 st MP come from

    Think you making my earlier point diff way
    Undys want a pairing of independant Speaker & D/Speaker , one each from ALP & Libs

    Libs present got 72 plus maybe Crook = 73 plus 3 Undys =76 less Speaker =75 unstable
    ALP present got 74 plus 3 Undys = 77 less there Speaker = 76 more stable

    IF Wilkie had followd Brandt ie no each way bet , 3 Undys would hav no choice but ALP

  12. On the death by ipod thing, in the UK they have dubbed the phenomenon “podestrians”. They had an information campaign targetting 12-16 yos who are the worst offenders.

    And they also said this.

    [Where ‘podestrians’ escape being hit, there have been many cases where vehicles having to perform an emergency stop have been hit from behind by other vehicles.]

  13. There is an article by Michael Body in today’s Australian ‘Journos won’t be taken for a ride’ quoting Phil Gardener, wtte, that for the next election his papers will not be putting journos on the media buses. Not worth it. Paul Whittaker, editor of The Australian, will continue to put journos on the bus ‘to ensure that serious questions are asked of both leaders.’ ABC head of news Kate Torney did not like the buses but did not commit either way.

  14. Boerwar

    The News outlets would be better off putting journos on the Western Sydney bus network

    It would be more illuminating seeing as both parties get their lines from there anyway.

  15. [The river god must have been irritated because all new plantings, around half our land, and around 1500 older plantings now under 1-2 metres of water.
    Such is life.]

    Despair not, Boerwar. Remember that ancient Egyptians had three seasons – inundation, coming forth & harvest – and it was inundation which enriched the soil and increased subsoil moisture.

    Perhaps a burst of Akhenaten: Great hymn to the Aten (down the page, in brown italics) might do the trick!

  16. There is also an article by Michael Bodey on The Challenge of Fast-Moving Change about news, journalism online, and making a buck. Inter alia, there is some discussion about a discussion on regulation, with particular reference to ‘anonymous lynch mobs’ in online comment spaces. Roger Green of the Drum opines ‘The anonymity of the internet is some kind of hippie bullshit,’…
    So now you know.

  17. [What might have been is an abstraction
    Remaining a perpetual possibility
    Only in a world of speculation.
    What might have been and what has been
    Point to one end, which is always present.]

    T.S eliot may be an anagram of toilets but he’s got this right

  18. [Paul Whittaker, editor of The Australian, will continue to put journos on the bus ‘to ensure that serious questions are asked of both leaders.’ ABC head of news Kate Torney did not like the buses but did not commit either way.]

    That is worth a huge laugh. Just who are the journalists who will be asking the hard questions at the OO. They’re not interested in anything that remotely resembles policy as far as the Coalition are concerned.

    Apart from a few at Fairfax – Tingle, Gittings, Taylor, Coorey, the only OO journo who is any good is George Mega and he was shut up before the election.

    Make that 2 huge laughs for the OO editor.

  19. [Andrew
    Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 12:46 pm | Permalink
    blue_green, I hear you. Maybe this is the end of politics by Western Sydney?]

    There will stil be a couple of WS seats in play, especially as the NSW ALP govt wil be long gone by the time of the next fed election.

    I still think we will be put through another “trial by queensland” though. 🙁

  20. BH, I have lost all respect for George M. after he was silent about the costings before the election. He’s just as bad as the others at the OO

  21. 3018: You are forgetting though that in the event of an abbott government, wilkie essentially becomes a +1 for them on supply and confidence. An abbott government will effectively end up on 77.

  22. [ blue-green, the end of the NSW and Qld Labor governments will certainly help Labor in the next federal poll ]

    Most definitely. They’re lead in Federal ALP’s saddlebags.

  23. i want to newspoll to say when they released the poll to the OO and whether they asked voting intention. I think the OO has been mightily shifty with this one

  24. james, this is a misreading of Wilkie’s position. If this was correct, he would have just announced he was supporting whomever got the most votes on the floor

  25. [Diogenes, whence cometh your Gaudi knowledge? Have you been to beautiful Barcelona?]

    I haven’t been to Barce. I went through an architecture phase and read a bio of Gaudi. He was an amazingly strict and humble man for someone who came up with such glorious organic and iconoclastic art.

  26. I assume that the main reason for media management via bussing was to ensure that the leaders were not ambushed at events. When did this occur some of the media outlets disgraced themselves by focus on the trite ‘human interest’ rather than on policy depth. So, in many ways, they have only themselves to blame. The partisan nature of some of the media outlets further stifles any desire of the parties to cede skerricks of control over media ‘events’.
    Not sure where all this will end.
    *goes shopping*

  27. weird, we kind of know how people voted in the election? A case of not asking the question as you might not like the answer?

    in any case, the polling was done Mon-Tues and would have been ready Wed. They sat on it until Sat

  28. [ Diogenes, whence cometh your Gaudi knowledge? ]

    Read like a Wiki summation to me, everybody is a one click away expert these days 😉

  29. [blue_green

    Not bad for a Republican]

    As was Abe Lincoln! And both must be turning in their graves!

    I thought it might be Teddy Bear, but didn’t know if it was his or the Yellowstone naturalist (John Burroughs – took me a while to get that googling right) who did the hard yards – and talking.

  30. [except that the odds post election were heavily favouring the coalition and now have swung strongly the other way]

    That’s the thing Andrew. Their figures must be taken with a grain of salt. We can see this with the benefit of hindsight. In the weeks and days leading up to the election they never showed the Coalition as very close to a win. The Coalition’s price got down to as low as 2.65 on the afternoon of Aug 21 (4.30pm), with Labor at that hour of that day ranging between 1.38 and 1.46. As you can see, nothing like parity.

    This election showed (to me) that the bookies offer a punt and a bit of fun, but nothing that can be taken too seriously in the predictive stakes.

  31. Well I can recommend BCN to anyone who’s going to Europe. Like Paris, but cheaper, and on the seashore. Excellent food, lots of culture, and splendid 19th century architecture. The endless promotion of Gaudi does get a bit tiresome (like Mozart in Vienna), but he was a genius.

  32. Boerwar 3020
    [‘Journos won’t be taken for a ride’ ]
    I predicted this ages ago – it happens every election – the collective hand-on-heart “mea culpa”.

    “Next time we’ll do it our way and not be sucked in by corny photo-ops, dubious costings etc”
    Then next time they do it all again, and wake up with another sore head and phony “regrets”

  33. Not only that Cuppa, the markets are effected by irrelevant noise rather than objective fact. The only reason the markets are currently narrowing for Labor is because most of the media are predicting the independents will go with Labor.

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