Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.

UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,161 comments on “Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39”

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  3. [Psephos
    I’m told that over in greenland the offices of defeated MPs are being cleaned, but I can’t confirm that. ]

    What status does Greenland have? Is it a province or state of Denmark?

  4. [Sean, do you REALLY think that Gillard would have announced the Green deal if it meant losing the 3 indies?]

    Did I say that? Are you suggesting that GIllard knows she’s got them in the bag? And by the way, seeing as you assume that Gillard has great judgement – do you really think that Gilard would propose something as naff and damaging as the ‘peoples assembly’…

    [Sean, I don’t think any of the independents feel particularly under pressure.]

    Itep
    Now that is nonsense.

  6. [Burgey
    Posted Monday, September 6, 2010 at 12:00 pm | Permalink
    2943 – that was arguably the best question I’ve heard a journo ask anyone this year.

    it was a cracker]

    Wilkie delivers. Win or Lose.

    The master negotiator.

  7. Itep

    If you put it like that, he’s only opposing Gillard on the mining tax.

    Therefore everything else for him is open game and he has not formally said he’ll support the Coalition in government. Until he says otherwise, the Coalition are effectively at 72.

  8. Agreed Ozpol. And if they are using the criteria you outline, its hard to seem them not backing Labor. I recall Wilkie’s comments about Abbott’s lack of attention to detail and due process in his negotiations

  9. [Does the $1bn dollar hospital still go ahead if the coalition win but without Wilkies support?]

    FWIW, I heard one Liberal spokesman [sic] say it would.

  10. Just to be clear, Crook’s position at the moment is that he’ll support the Opposition (the ALP in Opposition can’t implement the mining tax).

  13. A Windsor quote from that article.

    Could have been said by Saint Bob

    [“I didn’t support the CPRS because I thought the 5 per cent was too low to rearrange the economy. If you are serious about climate change you’ve got to do something serious about it, rather than the tokenistic approach that the CPRS was,” he said.]

  15. [“I didn’t support the CPRS because I thought the 5 per cent was too low to rearrange the economy. If you are serious about climate change you’ve got to do something serious about it, rather than the tokenistic approach that the CPRS was,”]

    I like Windsor more all the time.

  17. So what we will get in the opposition is:

    -incredible support for Tony for pulling the party back from the abyss
    -internal criticism for shredding party values
    -massive criticism for terrible negotiation skills

  18. [My inside info: It’s very quiet here at the Big House. Our office has a new fridge. I saw Michelle Grattan having coffee with Bill Heffernan. I’m told that over in greenland the offices of defeated MPs are being cleaned, but I can’t confirm that. My mum rang to wish me happy birthday.]

    Happy Birthday, Psephos. May all your birthday wishes come true.

  19. rosa

    [DIOGENES _ Supposedly quite a few french philosophers have been killed in pedestrian accidents in Paris. Certainly, Barthes got clobbered by a laundry van.

    Is that the same phenomena as the “I-pod” effect.]

    Antoni Gaudi did in Barcelona.

  20. [What status does Greenland have? ]

    Parliament House is divided into four zones – the public area, the Reps (green carpets), the Senate (red carpets) and the ministerial wing (blue carpets). Senate and Reps staffers affect great disdain for each other, and call the other area greenland and redland.

  22. Psephos
    [Maybe it would be possible for cars to emit an electronic signal that sounds as an alarm when picked up by an iPod ]
    Yes, but it would be impossible to retrofit to all the older cars. It is probably easier to have something on the bike which detects the cars. I think ears do it best. 🙂

    It is absolutely ridiculous to a ride a bike wearing an Ipod. It sounds like a pending Darwin award to me.

    I have my own theory regarding ‘helicopter parenting’, the increased supervision and ‘protection’ of kids from experiencing risk/consequence, and older teen/young adult behaviour like hoon driving. This could also apply to this sort of behaviour. (Of course older adults probably Ipod-bike too but you can’t control stupidity.)

    In my time as a kid and parent, kids broke things: arms, wrists, ankles, and it was just part of growing up. Jenny climbed a tree, fell out, broke a wrist, got told she was stupid not to test the branch before climbing out on it, and everyone signed the cast.

    Now the owner of the tree gets sued for growing a tree, or the council gets sued for not fencing off the dangerous tree, the school gets sued for not teaching tree awareness, the doctor gets sued because the wrist isn’t straight, the msm runs a campaign against the evil greenies who support planting hazardous fora, industry advocates the resumption of logging old native forests, and Tone just rides his bike.

  24. [Parliament House is divided into four zones – the public area, the Reps (green carpets), the Senate (red carpets) and the ministerial wing (blue carpets). Senate and Reps staffers affect great disdain for each other, and call the other area greenland and redland.]

    Ta on the insiders lingo. I didnt think there were Danish elections. 🙂

    Happy Birthday

  26. I hope it turns out to be a very happy birthday Psephos.

    2865 Rod Hagen – yes, the TPP – saw Pyne going on about it yesterday – I was just hoping he’d go that “extra step” and say “Whoever wins the final TPP should be the government”. Of course he didn’t because, like us, he knows the maths. I have repeatedly challenged Coalition bloggers here to make the same declaration and their silence is the best proof that Labor will finish ahead.

    The last few weeks have been shocking – if we did have another election and it was another hung parliament I think I would need to take leave from work! (or face the sack!)

    William, I thought you might put a “predictions” thread up today, but driving to work I was so torn about the outcomes that I was in danger of knocking people over, iPod or not – so please don’t do it, it will just make us all worse!

    My reading of things is O won’t go to Coalition UNLESS the other two do, and even then he may “abstain” to prevent 75-75.

    I feel it is still more likely that Labor will form a minority govt – maybe with W or K “abstaining” from the process to give 76-73.

  27. Vera

    We’re thinking of you here, trying to channel strength & positive vibes, and hoping you’re getting lots of love & support from your Significant Others & friends.

  29. [It is probably easier to have something on the bike which detects the cars. I think ears do it best.]

    I was thinking of pedestrians. If their ears were free there wouldn’t be a problem. I’m certainly aware when I’m walking around with earplugs in that I can’t hear approaching cars, and have to be careful when crossing streets.

  30. Strewth!! Iv’e been out for two hours and sawn a heaped trailer load of wood and came back with some expectation – but, alas, no change.
    My back is now so kanackered I haven’t got it in me to go out for another session, so I guess I’ll have to have a politics day on the setee.

  31. [If your anxious, go outside and take a walk somewhere nice. This is one event you have no personal control over, so stop sweating it so hard until it happens!]
    Very sensible.

  33. [I have my own theory regarding ‘helicopter parenting’, the increased supervision and ‘protection’ of kids from experiencing risk/consequence, and older teen/young adult behaviour like hoon driving. This could also apply to this sort of behaviour. ]

    I don’t agree with this theory. Yes there is helicopter parenting of toddlers that is too the toddlers detriment. I cannot logically see how this would follow through to high-risk adult behaviour.

    I would expect the ‘helicopter parents’ to continue a close relationship with their children as they grow through their teens.

  37. Mr Wilike played the coalition like a Stradivarius

    I reckon the Coal are more like a $2 Ukulele, anybody can learn to play ’em in five minutes

  39. Psephos
    Happy Birthday
    [Our office has a new fridge.]
    Careful with the detail, protect your identity. Don’t you watch Spooks?

  40. Just heard on Abc that the indies have finished their meeting the TA. Next off the see PM Julia. No comments on how his meeting went. Pyne still whinging about parliamentary reforms.

  42. On Robb and the Hobart hospital thing.

    My recollection is that the commitment is to “factor it into long term plans”.

    Code for “not going to happen” IMO

  43. BK
    [ 42 out of 42 on the ballot paper that makes me feel good.]
    Me too.
    Well down down down on my paper too. Last I think.

  44. [f your anxious, go outside and take a walk somewhere nice. This is one event you have no personal control over, so stop sweating it so hard until it happens!]

    And to think that until I read this I thought I had ‘personal control’ over the situation! damn! Thanks for putting me straight.

    I’d say that if you’ve not come to terms with the human tendency to speculate in situations like this, then its you who needs to do the walking.

  45. [blue_green

    So what we will get in the opposition is:

    -incredible support for Tony for pulling the party back from the abyss]

    I suppose there’s a first for everything, including the way the Libs treat their losers – although it did resurrect Menzies (from the mess of the OAP) & Howard, but not for years.

  46. I can’t see how the Speaker can be independent with a Coalition government. 76-1 = 75. The Speaker would often have to be using his or her casting vote. Wilkie might go with a Coalition motion sometimes, but it can’t be guaranteed he’d always do so. In that case we have a government (Coalition) unable to pass its main agenda.

    OK, so let’s have the Deputy Speaker from the Opposition (whoever they are). This means that neither the independent Speaker nor the independent Deupty would exercise a casting vote – an effective “pairing”.

    We do know the Coalition are resisting the Deputy coming from the Opposition. But I fail to understand how an independent Coalition Spreaker and an independent Coalition Deputy Speaker would be “stable”. The Coalition would have a 76-2 vote… 74, a minority.

    The only way Speaker and Deputy, one from each party, could be stable would be if the Indies all support Labor, with one Speaker from each side. That would result in Labor 77-1 v. Coalition 74-1… 76 v. 73. The only really “stable” situation. If the Coalition refuses to play ball on independent Speakers, then Labor could balance this by withdrawing their agreement to independence.

    If this is the case, how do we interpret the Coalition sticking to their “both from the same side” scenario? It seems like it can only be a spoiling tactic, to drag out negotiations. They’re cutting their noses off to spite their face because, on the numbers, they can never supply both Speakers. It’s got to be a spoiling tactic. Going with Labor would therefore be much easier for the Indies, just on the numbers involved.

    Throw in Costingsgate and you have two sound reasons – one based on numbers and the other based on ethics – for the Indies to go with Labor. Add a pinch of attempted intimidation over the weekend, the uproar and confusion as an incumbent government – ministries, public servants, even the stationery – is dismantled and it should be logical which way they’d go. In my opinion Labor definitely has the edge.

    I can’t see that the Indies – so near to their goal of reforms – would abandon things to a new election. It’d be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    If Labor lost and then spat the dummy on the independence of the Speakers (and this is provided an incoming Coalition government would agree to one from each side), it’d be a disaster.

    I can only see one way the Indies can go: Labor.

  47. [Except that they’re funded by mining companies.]

    Quiz: Who said this? (clue- it was in 1910)

    [ Of all the questions which can come before this nation, short of the actual preservation of its existence in a great war, there is none which compares in importance with the great central task of leaving this land even a better land for our descendants than it is for us, and training them into a better race to inhabit the land and pass it on.

    Conservation is a great moral issue, for it involves the patriotic duty of insuring the safety and continuance of the nation.

    Let me add that the health and vitality of our people are at least as well worth conserving as their forests, waters, lands, and minerals, and in this great work the national government must bear most important part.]

  49. [Gaudi was run down by a tram I think – and no-one recognised him before he died in hospital.]

    The taxi-drivers actually refused to pick him up as he looked too poor to pay. He was taken to a free hospital with crappy care and his identity worked out the next day. He refused to move to another hospital saying he would remain among the poor, which turned out not to be such a great decision.

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