Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.

UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,161 comments on “Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39”

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  1. One reason against going for the pairing arrangement for Speaker/Deputy Speaker is that it presumes they will always be voting with their party. If a Lib Deputy Speaker wanted to cross the floor they’d be barred from doing so.

  2. Thanks Itep & Cud… got it now.
    You’ve got to admit that in this situation Julia is the perfect choice, and probably the only leader for decades that could work her way through this scenario. I think it will be the making of her if the cards fall the right way. Exciting times.

  3. Bob Carr’s solution
    [Former NSW Premier Bob Carr has suggested Prime Minister Julia Gillard recruit Malcolm Turnbull as a key Cabinet minister in a future minority Labor government.

    “Here’s a solution,” Mr Carr started. “Make Oakeshott or Windsor Minister for Regional Development and recruit a Coalition MP as Speaker.

    “Offer Malcolm Turnbull a post in cabinet.]

  4. blue green.. Im not entirely sure about that. I think the constitution mentions the speaker having a casting vote – but I’d have to read it again to know if the House can suit itself in every respect.

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