Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39

The Australian has published a Newspoll survey of 1134 respondents which finds 47 per cent of respondents want the rural independents to back Labor, compared with 39 per cent for the Coalition. There is, predictably enough, “almost unanimous partisan support among voters for the party they supported” – which can only mean primary vote support for the Coalition has taken a solid hit since the election, at which they polled 43.7 per cent. Hopefully more to follow.

UPDATE: We also have another JWS/Telereach robopoll courtesy of the Fairfax broadsheets, this time of 4192 respondents, which has 37 per cent for Labor, 31 per cent for the Coalition and 26 per cent for a new election. However, on voting intention the Coalition leads 44.9 per cent to 35.4 per cent on the primary vote and 50.4-49.6 on two-party preferred, suggesting most of those in favour of a new election are Coalition supporters.

UPDATE 2: Full JWS-Telereach release here, courtesy GhostWhoVotes. I gather the poll targeted 55 seats with post-election margins of less than 6 per cent, and the vote results above extrapolate the swings on to the national results. On Coalition costings, 40 per cent of respondents professed themselves very concerned and 19 per cent somewhat concerned, with only 35 per cent showing little or no concern. People are more concerned about the Greens balance of power in the Senate (49 per cent say “bad for Australia” against 39 per cent good) than the value of the Labor-Greens alliance (opinion evenly divided). Julia Gillard only just shades Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, 43 per cent to 41 per cent, and respondents are evenly divided on which party would prove more “stable and competent”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,161 comments on “Newspoll: ALP favoured for government 47-39”

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  5. [Yes sean, unless the 75-75 was put to him as a hypothetical, in which case one of them would have to change to break the deadlock]

    Andrew

    I listened to the Fran Kelly interview this morning, and it wasn’t put to him as a hypothetical – he actually raised it himself.

  7. I think Oakeshott is backing Labor and Windsor and Katter want to go with Coalition but this would cause a deadlock. Hence Windsor is dropping hints Oakeshott might need to join them and support the Coalition.

    ltep – still more nonsense from you.

  9. Well the 74 for the Coalition does assume Crook is on board (not certain of course but push come to shove and he surely would with a bit of pork) plus IF the three independents go the Coalition’s way then on questions of supply and no-confidence Wilkie becomes their No74, based on his agreement on that issue re the Coalition

  10. [ltep – still more nonsense from you.]
    ltep is guessing like everyone else here. It’s just his opinion and that’s OK. He could be right or not.

  12. [I think Oakeshott is backing Labor and Windsor and Katter want to go with Coalition but this would cause a deadlock. Hence Windsor is dropping hints Oakeshott might need to join them and support the Coalition.]

    This is a perfectly plausible scenario. Where’s the nonsense?

  15. Sorry that was badly explained. Wilkie, based on his statement, is in effect a floating vote though he has said he prefers Labor, and would give his support to Labor in the first instance. But that goes out the window if the three independents go with the Coalition.

    Putting Crook out of the picture, the Coalition 72 plus the three plus Wilkie gives them 76. I don’t mean this as a partisan comment (I have obviously made my preference clear otherwise) it’s just mathematics.

  18. sean, either O is playing with our minds, or he indicating that he would switch to coalition to break a 75-75 deadlock. The only way it can get to the deadlock is for Crook and 2 indies to back the coalition

  19. What a tedious and painful period in Ausiie politics. Katter went to the toilet but didn’t flush, so i think he’s going Coal. Windsor’s cousins best friends aunties said that he will go ALP but could still go Coal. Oaks wife is half aboriginal and wants a better deal for indigenous, is backing A:P but could change if Wyatt is made leader of indiginous afair. Crook wants 782 million and a new car, and then might back ALP, but has since met up with Gryllis at the speach therapist and thinks Abetz needs more help so will back Coal- ??????

  20. ltep went –

    Crook is a sham independent and everyone knows it. If it comes to it he’ll roll over for very little. Couple of hundred million and he’s in.

    Kohler is on the record quoting crooks price at $ 850 Million. Money abbott doesn’t have – you may recall *something* about a GBBBH ?

    Also if abbott pays up for crook all the others nats plus the pineapple party will want the same, not just in this parliamant but in future ones as well.

  21. This is the last thing in the media I’ve seen from Tony Crook on his position. He said he’d make his decision by the weekend, but he still hasn’t said anything. I can only assume that Mr Abbott hasn’t yet agreed to his demands.

    http://www.esperanceexpress.com.au/news/local/news/general/crook-may-not-join-with-coalition/1930874.aspx

    Of course the obvious question is where will Mr Abbott find $900 million in his costings to allocate to O’Connor and make reforms to the GST when he’s got a black hole of $10.6 Billion?

    Until it’s official, the Coalition can’t make a claim for government (unless Bandt and Wilkie have a miraculous change of heart)

  22. [Why 74 for the coal]

    Because Wilkie has said he wouldn’t block supply or confidence motions should Abbott form Government. He’d prefer Labor though and I’m not sure how stable this be given the public attack the Coalition mounted on Wilkie after he made his announcement.

  23. The nationals must be praying that the independents go with labor. Otherwise THey’re gonna be seen for what they are – weak patsies to the big end of town.

  24. Sorry my logic was wonky there. If you put Crook out of the picture, then the Coalition 72 plus the three independents, if they go that way, gets to 75, so then it is a question of whether Wilkie prefers to produce a government (which could only be the Coalition at that point, if he switched across) or is happy to see another election. Not sure if he has addressed that question.

  25. [What a tedious and painful period in Ausiie politics. Katter went to the toilet but didn’t flush, so i think he’s going Coal. Windsor’s cousins best friends aunties said that he will go ALP but could still go Coal. Oaks wife is half aboriginal and wants a better deal for indigenous, is backing A:P but could change if Wyatt is made leader of indiginous afair. Crook wants 782 million and a new car, and then might back ALP, but has since met up with Gryllis at the speach therapist and thinks Abetz needs more help so will back Coal- ??????]

    Did Katter wash his hands after going to the toilet? This could be pivotal…

  26. [Money abbott doesn’t have]

    He had a billion for Wilkie. He’ll just go further into debt if need be. You don’t think he’s principled do you?

  27. [This is a perfectly plausible scenario. Where’s the nonsense?]
    But it is also plausible that the indies could all baclk Labor. A case could be made for it.

  28. ltep, there is no way that Abbott could agree to the Crook demands without upsetting the non-WA Nats. He would have to roll out royalties for regions Australia-wide. Now how much would that cost?

    Think its weird though that abbott has not agreed and rolled out Crook in support of him to try and change the narrative

  29. [Why wouldn’t people be nervous at the prospect of an unhinged developmentally delayed self flagellating religious nut job with a mesiah complex getting into the lodge.

    nearly choking on my excellent organic coffee.]

    Me too – except my coffee is some goddamned awful stuff we bought in a hurry. Good for choking on tho!

    Tim Dunlop’s article was hilarious the other day – nice to have him back and in form. We have a lot to thank him for from his blogocracy days.

    There used to be a bloke on Blogocracy who made fantastic comments re finance and he took apart Costello’s great economic skills beautifully. I learnt a lot from it.

  32. I keep mentioning Crook, not to make a partisan comment, but to mention the reality, that the Coalition can’t proceed with the Independent’s support until Crook makes his position clear on whether he will support Abbott or sit on the cross benches.

  34. This is all Groundhog Day like!

    I seem to recall about this time last week, people were trying to figure out what Wilkie would do.

    Lots of wailing and gnashing of teeth about him looking like not supporting the ALP.

    Then he did.

    The Independents will or won’t – nothing said here will change that.

    If your anxious, go outside and take a walk somewhere nice. This is one event you have no personal control over, so stop sweating it so hard until it happens!

  35. There’s a whole range of plausible scenario’s and everyones perfectly entitled to make them. The only truly nonsensical one is to suggest that Crook will end up being anything other than with the coalition.

    I don’t think that the incongruity between a conservative political orientation and the Labor/Green view of politics has been fully appreciated by some. It makes it very difficult for the conservative independents to go to labor even if its that case that all the rational arguments would indicate that that is what should happen.

    These guys would be under enormous pressure from the tories and elements in their electorates. They’d also be aware that if the new limited MSM campaign against labor was bad under Rudd, its gonna be even worse now that they can call it a “labor green coalition’. If they go with Labor Heffernans ‘devil’ call to Oakshots wife will look like childs play.

  36. Gary.. That is correct. It is perfectly possible Wilkie might utlimately renege on his verbal statement that he would not block supply or vote to support a no-confidence motion in the event of a Coalition government — especially in the light of the ill will over the $1 billion Hobart hospital thing.

  38. [Darn

    A theory on the delay.

    Could it be that the indies want to lock Abbott into agreeing that both the government and the opposition will play a part in providing the speaker, so that he can’t back out if he doesn’t get the nod..]

    My theory of delay: the 3 Indies are dotting every I, crossing every “T” in their rationale/s for their decision/s.

    They seemed to have played remarkably fair with both sides; presented the same “wish lists” to both; revised, re-discussed; had “deep & meaningfuls” with advocates of both sides (inc Rudd & Heffernan); gone to treasury, discussed things with both Ministers & their Shadows; and done it again, and again, and again.

    When the decision is finally made, they will have a paper trail, not only of their wishes & negotiations, but of the differences between planks in party platforms, budget honesty and the extent to which they can trust each party to stick to its undertakings; differences which underpin their decision/s.

    In addition, the national electorate will also know what the reasons and agreements were – at least for & with the party they choose – so it can measure just how well party & Indies deliver.

    That will be a very powerful end to a meticulously and even-handedly managed process. The Nation should be proud of them, and thank them for it.

  40. Sean, I don’t think any of the independents feel particularly under pressure. However, of course they’re going to have natural leanings. Everyone does and this is hard to overcome.

  42. He had a billion for Wilkie. He’ll just go further into debt if need be. You don’t think he’s principled do you?

    He didn’t have a billion for wilkie – he lied yet gain.

    We know he is unprincipled. Pity more people didn’t.

  43. @2941

    Tony Jones pressed Andrew Robb on this question last Friday night. A crumpled Robb sort of yielded to the notion that yes, they would proceed with the hospital nevertheless but it was clearly not something he had thought through.

  46. [@2941

    Tony Jones pressed Andrew Robb on this question last Friday night. A crumpled Robb sort of yielded to the notion that yes, they would proceed with the hospital nevertheless but it was clearly not something he had thought through.]

    Really 😆

  47. My inside info: It’s very quiet here at the Big House. Our office has a new fridge. I saw Michelle Grattan having coffee with Bill Heffernan. I’m told that over in greenland the offices of defeated MPs are being cleaned, but I can’t confirm that. My mum rang to wish me happy birthday.

  48. [In addition, the national electorate will also know what the reasons and agreements were – at least for & with the party they choose – so it can measure just how well party & Indies deliver.

    That will be a very powerful end to a meticulously and even-handedly managed process. The Nation should be proud of them, and thank them for it.]

    OzPolT – well put and something I’ll keep in mind. thanks.

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