Newspoll, Nielsen, Westpoll

So …

• GhostWhoVotes reports Nielsen has Labor ahead 52-48, from primary votes of 39 per cent for Labor, 41.5 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens.

• The Australian reports the 2500-sample Newspoll we were shown two-thrds of yesterday panned out to 50.2-49.8, the decimal place being a feature of Newspoll’s final polling since about two years ago.

• Westpoll/Patterson Market Research has polled 400 voters in each of Canning, Hasluck, Swan and Cowan, putting the Liberals narrowly ahead in each: 51-49, 52-48, 52-48 and 53-47 respectively. Canning aside, where Alannah MacTiernan is clearly doing exceptionally well in narrowing down a 4.3 per cent Liberal margin, the figures point to a swing against Labor of about 2.5 per cent within a margin of error of under 3 per cent.

UPDATE: Newspoll state breakdowns show the shift they have recorded against Labor has been driven by a collapse in Queensland, where their two-party vote is down six points on last week to 42 per cent, and New South Wales, where they are down four to 48 per cent. This points to election-losing swings of 8.4 per cent an 6.2 per cent. And yet the poll also finds Labor climbing still higher in Victoria for a swing of 3.7 per cent, maintaining their 3.6 per cent swing in South Australia, and recovering four points to their 2007 level of support in Western Australia. After appearing to reverse her decline last week, Gillard’s disapproval has shot up five points to 43 per cent, almost equal with her steady 44 per cent approval. State results vary from plus-22 net approval in South Australia to minus-16 in Queensland. However, Tony Abbott’s disapproval is also up four points to 50 per cent, and his disapproval down one to 42 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-35 to 50-37.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham in comments notes that the Queensland result looks very much an outlier, and if it was replaced with the state’s trend figure the national result would be 50.8-49.2 in favour of Labor. This of course would normally be rounded to 51-49.

UPDATE 3: While a nation waits in breathless anticipation of the result in Boothby, The Advertiser offers … a poll of Hindmarsh. This predictably has Labor well ahead, although the size of the margin – 62-38 from a swing of 7 per cent – is interesting.

UPDATE 4: Roy Morgan has done a very strange thing – recontacted the 187 undecided voters (fair enough) and Greens voters (huh?) from their recent poll to check if they had made up or changed their minds, and reassigned their vote choices accordingly. Their figures thus record Greens votes shifting to other parties, but not other votes shifting to the Greens.

UPDATE 5: A late situation report.

New South Wales. The final Newspoll has the swing at 6.2 per cent, and while this seems to be what Labor is bracing for in western Sydney, the result is well clear of what is expected statewide. Nielsen and Morgan both have it at 3 per cent. A swing of that size in Sydney alone would cost Labor Macquarie, Macarthur and Bennelong, and the expectation that these seats will indeed be lost has become almost universal over the past few days. There is also an emerging consensus that two further Sydney seats on much larger margins, Lindsay and Greenway, are being swept away on a late surge to the Coalition. However, Imre Salusinszky of The Australian suggests the backlash against Labor ends at the city limits. Robertson is rated “the only regional seat in NSW where Labor regards itself in deep trouble” (Gilmore evidently doesn’t count), and even there the result is 50-50. Labor is thus expected to retain Eden-Monaro, Dobell and Page, and if this proves wrong they can kiss the election goodbye. There would also remain the vague hope for Labor of a boilover in Liberal-held Robertson.

Victoria. Meanwhile, the swing to Labor in Victoria is at the very least holding firm: Newspoll has it at 3.7 per cent, Morgan at 0.7 per cent. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald quoted a Liberal source talking of a stronger-than-anticipated swing driven by “resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland”. Certainly Labor is expected at a bare minimum to win McEwen, and are generally rated favourites to take La Trobe. Beyond that pickings in Victoria are slim, though there are dim hopes Dunkley or Aston might prove a bolter. Conversely, Labor are by no means a foregone conclusion of retaining Corangamite, which looms as a must-win for them in every sense of the term. Labor are all but giving away Melbourne to Greens candidate Adam Bandt, who could find himself in a very interesting position over the coming week or two.

Queensland. Newspoll has set a cat among the pigeons by showing a lethal swing against Labor of 8.4 per cent and a primary vote below 30 per cent. However, this is sharply at odds with Nielsen’s 3 per cent and Morgan’s 4.4 per cent. Should it come in at the lower end of expectations, Labor could yet save quite a bit of furniture. I believe Peter Brent is overselling his point in saying “sophomore surge” means the Coalition is more likely to lose from a majority of the vote than Labor, but there’s no question this phenomenon warrants more attention than it has been given. At the 1998, members of John Howard’s class of 1996 facing re-election for the first time experienced an average swing 1.1 per cent lower than the overall swing in their state. Similarly, the 19 Labor MPs ushered into the Victorian parliament by the Steve Bracks landslide of 2002 out-performed the statewide swing by 1.4 per cent at the 2006 election. Should that pattern be repeated this time, it would be an enormous boon to Labor in Queensland where sophomores are defending eight seats, including six on margins of 4.5 per cent or less. Labor could thus be confident of holding back the tide in a couple of seats with margins under the statewide swing. The consensus is fuzzy about individual outcomes, with seemingly only Leichhardt and notionally Labor Dickson on everybody’s list. Most feature any or all out of Flynn, Dawson, Longman and notionally Labor Herbert. Speaking on The Drum, Annabel Crabb noted Labor had been surprised how little attention the Liberal National Party had been paying to Bonner, Petrie, Brisbane and Moreton, but of these it seems only Moreton is entirely safe.

Western Australia. The best guess is that Labor will suffer frustrating defeats in every WA marginal, with Canning, Hasluck, Swan, Cowan and Stirling all emerging in the 0 to 5 per cent zone on the Liberal side of the pendulum. The seat most likely to buck the trend is Canning, which speaks volumes for Alannah MacTiernan’s performance given its 4.3 per cent margin. Labor would still be holding out hope of an upset in Swan or Hasluck. The latter if not the former can probably be relied upon to closely track the statewide swing, which the late polls can’t agree on: Newspoll says 0.3 per cent to Labor and Nielsen says 4 per cent to the Coalition, while the result from Morgan’s small sample came in at 1.2 per cent to the Coalition.

South Australia. Newspoll has the Labor swing in South Australia at 3.7 per cent, which seems on the high side, but we also have an Advertiser poll for the seat of Hindmarsh putting it at 7 per cent. That should make both Sturt and Boothby highly winnable for Labor, but there is a near universal view that Christopher Pyne’s expensive campaign for the former has paid dividends. Boothby on the other hand is expected to go down to the wire.

Elsewhere. There is limited local polling data available, but it is very widely expected that Darwin-based Solomon will be lost to Labor. In Tasmania, a big ticket campaign promise earlier this week suggested the Liberals have not given up on Bass, but most expect Labor to again obtain a clean sweep of the state’s five seats. Certainly they can afford nothing less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

980 comments on “Newspoll, Nielsen, Westpoll”

Comments Page 13 of 20
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  1. Just passed the Five ways polling booth…I tell you, if there was ever any requirement for evidence of Malcolm Turnbull’s narcissist personality…wow, I have seen candidate pictures, but these blocked out the sun!

  2. This is the first time I’ve been entitled to vote at a federal election. What’s the done thing with HTV cards? Obviously as a Poll Bludger I know perfectly well how I’m going to vote, and I can well live without more junk paper. Should I just give a cheery hello to the parties of progress, or does it in some way help if I take the card?

  4. 589 – it’s obscence isn’t it?

    That election eve thing on Sky last night was the worst thing I’ve seen in partisanship.

    Tey only report Newspoll, nothing on the 4 or 5 other polls showing Labor in front.

    Plainly trying to drive home the message that the momentum os Abbott’s. And of course, the whole damn media pack just follow suit.

    Kudos to Hartcher last night on Lateline for a more balanced approach to the whole thing, even if he shifts around in his chair like Brains from the Thunderbirds.

  5. JJ, it was then when did you decide your vote, first preference, second preference lab/lib, then no 1 issue (included econom, NBN, health, schools and some others cant remember)

  7. What disappoints me most about the thanklessness of the Aussie electorate and nastiness of the MSM is that we will likely see the loss of some really good people from our parliament if Rabbott does win.

    People like Maxine are real assets to this country. She will make an excellent minister (like Roxon and some other front benchers are now). If she goess, it will sadden me greatly.

  8. Shit!

    I’m getting a bad feeling about tonight – because of you guys! I felt alright this morning but reading these posts make me feel Labor’s losing. Damn it!

    Someone please console me!

  9. dikkop

    As someone helpfully posted earlier 🙂

    [The polite/environmentally sound approach to HTVs is to take one of each, then hand them back to the respective hander-outerers on the way out. (However, it is OK to make a cheeky amendment to the Libs one before doing so)]

  10. [ does it in some way help if I take the card ]

    Helps make an impression to the people handing thing out that you might agree with them and that is about it 🙂

  11. The reason why I remember that interview on 3aw with Ian Baker during the 1999 run-off election was it was my old polling booth.

    Interestingly in 2001 and 2004 it went to the Liberal and in 2007 it went ALP.

    Bascially it is a suburban booth, slightly older, mostly mortgage holding family type of area.

  14. [Kudos to Hartcher last night on Lateline for a more balanced approach to the whole thing, even if he shifts around in his chair like Brains from the Thunderbirds.]

    He always does that — I think he is especially nervous on TV.

    dikkop — I took great delight in saying a very loud ‘no thankyou’ to the liberals who ambushed me and then walking straight up to the ALP guy. I also talked loudly (and to my daughter’s mind, obnoxiously) about how great Labor has been.

    Trouble is, my seat of Reid (new) was very safe ALP seat, and not expected to change, so it was all for effect.

  16. Did the deed in Griffith this morning, at polling booth closests to Kev’s house. Lots of posters of Kev about, and even spotted a Kevin07 shirt! Don’t remember spotting any posters of Julia.

  19. [undecideds! how on earth can a person be undecided?]

    The election came up at work drinks last night. Four workmates – 2 men, 2 women – said “I haven’t really thought about it, will work it out in the morning”. A lot of people do this.

  23. I was watching the online feed of ABC News 24. The anchorperson slipped up, saying “former prime… uh, Prime Minister Julia Gillard.”

  25. Btw the cdp spruiker at my local booth was a young seemingly normal looking man. Still had the requisite deranged Julie Bishop eyes though.

  26. ABC24 newsreader just said ‘former Prime Minister Julia Gillard, er I mean Prime Minister….”

    They can’t even keep their wishful thinking under control 🙂

  27. I usually take all three and then bin them afterwards, so that no-one knows how I vote.
    Today I went feral.
    I was so mad at the $1m a day posters plastered all across the front fence that I took Lib htv card, smiled politely and then screwed it up viciously in my hand (took effort, very large) and threw it into my bag as I walked away (no littering even in anger!!)
    The middle aged lady said “Oh!” in shock. But I just felt I had to protest somehow at those lies.

    In mcewen. 10.30 in moning very quiet only 3 or 4 people in booth. Never try to tell me people are “more sophisticated than we think”. Nice looking 40-ish man next to me, very chatty, said “I don’t trust any of them. so I’m voting Lib.” Que???
    He then explained. “That Gillian Gillard, she says if kids don’t do better at school and raise their marks, she’ll take their sport away from them. That’s all they’ve got. And I can’t vote Green, because they won’t let us work”. I think he might be in forestry.

    Stupid Howard said – the people are always right. 🙁

  28. ALERT: Possible fraudulent Libs HTV masquerading as Greens HTV

    Is this unlawful?

    In Deakin, the Libs are handing out a separate card with the heading:

    “If you are thinking of voting Green, please decide for yourself which other
    parties deserve your preferences”

    The card then gives a highly skewed summary of both Liberal and Labor positiosn on
    “carbon reduction”, “local environment” and “greener homes”.

    The only reference to the Liberal party is in very small print.

    I raised this with the Greens HTV chap and he said he was “very p…d off” about it.

  30. [undecideds! how on earth can a person be undecided?]

    They’re trying to decide whether they want their grand/kids to have:

    SerfChoices or the National Broanband Network?

    You’re right – unbelievable.

    The country baiscally gets the government it deserves.

  36. 620 alias it probably is legal and all’s fair in politics and war unfortunately. There was a similar incident in the SA election only that time involving Labor. It just shows both sides do it.

  37. markjs…its an all out assault by Sky and the ABC to try to influence those still to vote,,,just a continuation of their grubby biased approach to this election….when we get over the line tonight…I hope like hell JG demands answers from the ABC about their shabby performance…they need to be brought to account.

  39. [How can anyone say the NSW vote is collapsing so early on the day of the election?]

    They’ve probably counted the baseball bats in NSW polling booth bins.

  40. On the Morgan re-poll thing I actually suspect it’s innovative and clever and may put them closer to getting the Green vote right than anyone else. People don’t, in general, decide to vote Green at the very last moment, but some do give “Green” as a glorified none-of-the-above-not-yet during the campaign. Also prospective Green voters are easily scared off. Every pollster has been overcooking the Green vote to high heaven and I think Morgan are just trying to find some way to adjust it to something that’s more realistic. Anyway it’s a novel experiment and we’ll see how it goes.

    JJF @193:

    [Funny, Sportsbet has the following:

    Julia Gillard Will Not be PM at 2013 Federal Election 1.65
    Julia Gillard Will be PM at 2013 Federal Election 2.10

    Thus implying that she will lose this election.

    Whereas…

    Tony Abbott Will be PM at 2013 Federal Election 1.30
    Tony Abbott Will Not be PM at 2013 Federal Election 3.20

    Thus implying Abbott will win.

    What gives?]

    What gives is that those bets are void if the named candidate doesn’t win today. Thus those markets are saying that if Gillard wins she will probably not be PM at the 2013 election, while if Abbott wins he very likely will be.

  41. Libs in Boothby also had a very green, Green-looking piece of propaganda Thurs. that had an earth image and “Nature wants Balance” slogan on it. Dirty B…ds! This was in Boothby.

  42. Brown is to blame. The greens have been abbot’s best sidekick in their constant rightoeous berating of Labour. The symbolic and climate stakes for ETS last november were huge, and the collateral damage caused by green-liberal alliance has caused this election. The Greens are disloyal, do not worry about consequences or damage as long as principles at work. I hope they grow up with a bit of power – probably deserve a time in the sun, and certainly no worse than Liberals. But if ALP lose, watch out.

  46. Just voted in what must be Australia’s quietest polling booth … Naremburn in the heart of Sloppy Joe’s North Sydney. Libs all over the place. And guess who I walked straight past without even noticing – Sloppy Joe himself. My wife told said ‘wasn’t that Joe Hockey”. Anyway, that’s the second time he’s ignored me. Wouldn’t have won my vote anyway.

  48. [The election came up at work drinks last night. Four workmates – 2 men, 2 women – said “I haven’t really thought about it, will work it out in the morning”. A lot of people do this.]

    The good thing is that these people also don’t really pay attention to what the press are saying.

  49. Funny thing I noticed when I went to the polling booth in Greenway, I didn´t see anybody from the ALP… Greenway is gone for the ALP, interesting considering that a 5.8% swing was necessary to wipe it off from the Ruling Party… what can I say, our state govt. made miracles for Tony !

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