For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.
Furthermore:
• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:
“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …
One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …
The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”
• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.
• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.
• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.
[Perhaps Ron can explain to the Greens why they should preference Labor when they have the worst policy of any Party re Climate Change apart from the Climate Sceptics.]
Diog, I think you’re in the wrong thread for sensible comments 😛
Bookies are never exposed if the favourite loses. That’s when they clean up.
The line has shrunk from 6.5 to 4.5 for Labor. What’s fascinating is a hung parloiament is $3.30. This is unheard of. Even betting on a draw between 2 closely matched teams will never see odds drop below $8, so the maths is telling me it’s between Labor 1-4 or a hung parliament, but little chance of an outright LNP win.
[In fact if these latest polls are right, it can’t.]
The Galaxy has Labor 52-48 ahead and the Newspoll is currently undercooked. We have no idea what demographics they have polled and on the face of it the 35% Labor Primary is a hell of a lot lower than what other polls have said. The same can be said for the Tory Primary of 44% which is also a couple of points higher than everyone else.
Labor won’t lose with a 2PP of 52%. I appreciate that you can cook up scenarios where it might happen, but the likelyhood of it is bugger all.
I have to go to a union council meeting all day. Fight the good fight, and don’t diss the Greens.
Kudos to all you election fighters on the ground. You’re all heroes in my book.
I’ve always given Newspoll more credence than galaxy. I hope Im completely wrong, no not gut feelings, what does everyone else really think with reference to the polling?
AND not instinct or rousing receptions or guts or whatever else?
Obviously those on the Labor right who supported the Rudd backstabbing, not to mention the previous foolish backflips and gutless cave in to the CFMEU over the ETS, now realise just how much damage they have done, and how big a risk there is that Tony Abbott will be Australia’s next PM. I can understand their defensiveness as a result. I don’t expect them to admit they are wrong, but I wish they would give up the pretence of claiming justificatiosn that the rest of us know are patently false. If Labor lose tomorrow, the careers of Mark Arbib, Karl Bitar, Feeney and Farrel are and shoudl be over. They will have cost Labor two leaders, and government.
That being said, the fat lady hasn’t sung yet, and here in SA places like Sturt and SA are still up for grabs. So lets save blaming the NSW right and their cronies till Monday.
Meanwhile, the Libs are still doing what lawyers and B grade accountants do for a living: lying about money, in this case their fake surplus.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/labor-raises-serious-doubts-on-costings-20100819-12s3u.html
How is taking money out of budget reserves a saving?? If they spend it there is no reserve. This is the safe, responsible conservative coalition? Pathetic amateurs.
So the Newspoll results are not based on the full sample? Possum says it’s 2/3rds of a Newspoll.
BK
[Can you imagine the extremity of the hubris that would be displayed by the Libs if they get up? It would add meaning to the word.]
Reminds me a bit of the Bourbon restoration – learnt nothing; forgotten nothing
Imagine Dolly in his Louis XIV heels and wig as Australia’s new ambassador to the United Nations
[Labor won’t lose with a 2PP of 52%. I appreciate that you can cook up scenarios where it might happen, but the likelyhood of it is bugger all.]
i hope like hell this is the case but what happens afterwards? will it be a case of lesson learned, deadweight dumped and spine transplanted? or will it be another lurch to the right and yet another misguided attempt to win liberal political territory?
[So the Newspoll results are not based on the full sample? Possum says it’s 2/3rds of a Newspoll.]
Thats right. Labor Primary of 35%. Even Latham got 37%.
Socrates
[So lets save blaming the NSW right and their cronies till Monday]
I agree, as long as no matter the outcome we still blame these guys. I’m keen to join the NSW ALP just so I can assist in its clean up. The fact that we are even close to having Abbot as PM is enough to warrant some serious ass-kicking
Victoria
[apparently last night Julia got a rousing reception at a pub in Liberal held seat.]
That was in Patterson which I reckon Labor will win narrowly. BH will be over the moon if Baldwin is given the push 🙂
Why would a polling organisation release a 2/3 baked poll?
janice2
That would be fab!
I think most over used words in this election has been “Key Marginals”, replaced bell-weather without doubt.
Seems now that there are 50+ key marginals, but only a few bell-weathers.
🙂
[Bookies are never exposed if the favourite loses. That’s when they clean up.]
[They do that by adjusting the odds, not spruiking the Liberal party.]
With all respect, these are comments by people who do not know what they are talking about. Go back and look at BBB recent posts, what he is saying is correct.
anony@156
That right-wing mob have learned nothing whatsoever from the carnage they have wreaked in NSW. They won’t learn from this either, win or lose. They are beyond education. Godfathers don’t need knowledge – all they need is power.
Kit
Of course. Good look with your task, though if my own past experience was anything to go by, the really dissillusioning thing was that rank and file members had almost no ability to get people like Arbib and Tripodi removed. Happy to be wrong on that.
Abbott and family on the Morning Show
Regarding the polls, at this point I am quite worried for Labor. One side has to lose on 50/50. It is even possible to lose on 51/49 if the swings are in the wrong places. I can’t see any way the overall result is better than 52/48 for Labor. Plus a lot of people may have lodged PVs in the early weeks of the campaign, when Labor’s effort was a train wreck. At this point minority government either way is also a real risk.
george
I’m sure you aren’t good with numbers but when your policy means there will be more carbon emissions, that is a bad thing.
[ Relative put their back out last night. Having back spasms can’t move. What to do re voting? ]
Morphine, the forces of light need you 🙂
I think there is something to be said for people reflecting over the next 24hrs as to whether they want a goose like Abbott running the place. that fact will crystallise in peoples minds and they just won’t be able to vote for him.
Eric the Echidna on the Morning Show went for Julia to win!!!
Making a difference? A bit from the local rag:
A bit like palliative care, but still satisfying.
Jon
Lol!
I was able to get onto the AEC. They advise that if doctor knows in advance and gives med cert. it will be accepted.
I usually tend towards pessimism but I see a lot to be positive about today, with all this talk that the polls are close. That means all the “water cooler” type talk will be utterly focused on the possibility of PM Abbott. I don’t think the momentum thing is all that significant as it’s been so close throughout, and Julia Gillard has been at her best when she’s been battling the odds such as being accosted by Mark Latham.
Labor drifting this morning. Betfair out to $1.44 and starting to hit $1.35 on the boards.
Libs in to $3.10 on Centrebet.
171: And then it went for Abbott.
Shy news bimbo – Labor has 16 marginal seats in Qld. 🙂
Had a read of the marsupials latest before coming here this morning. Its interesting that the pattern of the polls for the ALP in 2010 is so similar to the pattern for the Coalition in 2004.
And remember, in 2004 the challenger (ALP) lost badly enough that the Coalition took control of the Senate!!
Teh 50/50 Newspoll with a PV of 35?? I dont believe that one. If the ALP lost 3 points in a few days??? Why? Its the Coalition that have been having the bad days of late.
ALP internal polling?? At this stage they will only release what they want the world to hear, igonore it.
This appears to be tighter than i’d like, but the ALP arent going to lose this one and it will only take a little shift on the day for this to be a pretty serious ALP victory.
However, it will mainly be a victory over the media. Almost vomited to listen toFran Kellly this morning. Spin cycle on high.
Ron and Co – Greens suggesting preferences is only part of the story – since Greens wont have people on many polling booths in those close seats it might be useful for people like yourself to have information about Greens HTV handy for people who ask?
Gary, they released a 2/3rds complete poll so they could have a headline. pure and simple. I’m actually astounded they agreed to it.
[I think there is something to be said for people reflecting over the next 24hrs as to whether they want a goose like Abbott running the place. that fact will crystallise in peoples minds and they just won’t be able to vote for him.]
He’s been kept in a straitjacket for weeks now. Even taken to walking out of press conferences before he could shoot his big mouth off. People have short memories, especially being disengaged from politics. Will they remember, or even be aware of, the many clangers he’s dropped over past years that expose him as a troglodyte doctrinaire reactionary – or witll they be taken in by the stage-managed, sedated phoney persona he’s been putting forward in the past week or two? We’re about to see whether the electorate as a whole passes the basic political IQ test.
Newspoll 2/3 baked or is this wishfulthinking/creeative accounting by the analyst?
[Why would a polling organisation release a 2/3 baked poll?]
Makes for a good headline and puts the cat amongst the pigeons, gary.
But I notice that so far at least this poll doesn’t appear on the Newspoll website, so I’m not sure that you can be confident that they have actually ‘released” it at all. THis may actually involve some direct spruiking by The Oz, rather than an actual Newspoll release.
We don’t even know if the results mentioned by the OZ were balanced for the different States, let alone whether the normal weighting for age, gender, etc had occured.
imacca
i have been keeping a file on the fib suckers in the MSM
post election expect some payback va a whispering campaign
the sharks will feed off each other-aided of course by salacious gossip and totally unsubstantiated allegations
Time they copped abit of their own medicine
Why are peole ignoring Galaxy now? It’s the only full blown poll we have at this stage.
Oh dear, it’s not just in Western Sydney where the vast majority of voters think Labor doesn’t deserve a second term; it is nationwide.
[The Galaxy poll of 1200 people found only one in six believed Labor “deserves to be re-elected”, although 56 per cent said if the ALP retains power it would be because they were “better than the alternative”.]
Fairfax are claiming it’s a blow for Labor that News Ltd papers have backed Abbott! Unbelievable!!!
Rod, it can be found here.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/neck-and-neck-parties-tied-as-campaign-enters-final-hours/story-fn59niix-1225907532884
@Gary/185,
Headlines.
[ The fact that we are even close to having Abbot as PM is enough to warrant some serious ass-kicking. ]
Yep – and the posterior that is gunna be kicked is Gillards.
These right wing mongrels will spin it that they can’t go to another election with her as leader, that she produced a scarey roller-coaster-ride which no one wants to experience again in 2013 and a safer bet would be X (the RWN’s man). The mongrels have form.
[Why are peole ignoring Galaxy now? It’s the only full blown poll we have at this stage.]
‘Cause it shows a swing to Labor. 😆
ruawake
You among a few others have kept me going through this election cycle.
Thanks!!
[Why are peole ignoring Galaxy now? It’s the only full blown poll we have at this stage.]
Because it doesn’t tell us anything we don’t already know, or give the nervous nellies reason to worry.
This newspoll is a bit more interesting. Do we know whether it has been weighted for states/demographics etc? Or would they only do that once they have the complete sample?
[Oh dear, it’s not just in Western Sydney where the vast majority of voters think Labor doesn’t deserve a second term; it is nationwide.]
And they’re not enamoured with the Libs either but you left that bit out.
I’m backing Galaxy in. They have the runs on the board regarding election results. 51.5% uniform result for ALP will get my prediction of 77 seats.
Have newspoll ever released part results before?
leftwingpinko. you have hit the nail on the head. the article makes no mention of it being representative. Only that 1600 people have been polled.