D-day minus 1

For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.

Furthermore:

• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:

“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …

One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …

The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”

• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.

• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “D-day minus 1”

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  1. @gloryconsequence

    [This is going to be my last post until Sunday. This place worries me sometimes, and like I’ve said, you can tell Labor hasn’t been an incumbent going in to an election for a while.

    Labor will win the election. It could be 76 seats, could be 80+. Enjoy the day tomorrow and the evening.]

    I’m thinking the same. It’s tight, but Labor are AHEAD (not behind) in the polls. Too many people here are behaving like its already lost and it’s Monday morning recrimination time.

    The fight is still on and there’s still work to be done, so stop squabbling over something that hasn’t happened and keep your eyes on the prize! 🙂 FFS chill out

  2. hI VICTORIA WILL YOU DO IT TO THE ABOVE AND THE UNI THING
    WHEN WE SEE DEE ON HERE AND CONFESSIONS ETC AND THE OTHERS CAN WE REMIND THEM AND KEEP REPEATING THE PASTE I THINKS THAT BRILLIANT
    THESE SILLY KIDS DONT THIN VOTING IS IMPORTANT.

  3. cud chewer

    I have observed the media for a while. One comparison that sticks out like dogs b….. is participating in the Iraq war. Where was the media scrutiny over that decision and the outcome thereafter. Instead, we have had endless run on BER, pink batts blah blah blah.

    Howard and Co were given a very light run. It cannot be denied.

  5. [cud chewer

    Don’t give me that BS. The media first attempted a beat up over the fake email. Then the media got to work doing hatchet job – a beat up extraordinare – over the pink bats.]
    Yes all true, but Rudd pretty much had it under control with polytrend sitting at 52% and rising, what do labor do, dump their leader.

  7. [I think we are seeing a lurch to the left in Australia politics.]

    You’ve got to be kidding. Labor is no longer a party of the left. It is a centerist party. The centre is the battleground.

  8. Betfair out to $1.43; even Centrebet out to $1.35. Money flowing towards Tony. I suppose it is a hedge to buy that international air ticket in case the turd wins.

  10. According to Antony’s calculator, Labor need 51.3% of the TPP vote to win 76 seats and hold on to office. They are still on track to do this. But it will be perilously close. Given the inevitable quirks and counter-swings that elections produce, it is possible we will see a hung Parliament in which a minority Liberal Government holds power while facing a hostile Senate. This is starting to look like a quite probable outcome and would usher in a new era of uncertainty. This would raise all kinds of difficulties for the Liberals: how will they implement their “program” without a majority in either house. One thing would be assured, however: there will be no action on CC at all.

  11. Better Better Best

    Sportsbet was on ABC radio this morning telling voters that the good money is for the coalition to win. Why would they be spruiking this??

  12. [Yes all true, but Rudd pretty much had it under control with polytrend sitting at 52% and rising, what do labor do, dump their leader.]

    Yes, agreed, it wasn’t a good move – it played to the worst of the media. And worse considering there was a compromise deal where Rudd was given time to sort things out in the polls with a view to an October election. Even if Julia, all else being equal, might be more electable.. the hacks ought to be short for being blind to how the media would react – its almost like the Labor number crunchers are blind to just how evil media is.. almost like they thought that because they were giving very good governance that they’d get a fair go.

  14. [Tom Hawkins

    You’ve got to be kidding. Labor is no longer a party of the left. It is a centerist party. The centre is the battleground.]

    No mate, Labor and Liberal are fighting in territory that would not even have been considered 15 years ago. But I think it’s over. The Greens will control the senate and the destruction of Labors NSW right will be complete with the NSW state election.

  16. i love the blame the big scary greens for labor’s gutlessness. face it, labor won a mandate and massive popular support. they pissed it away because they bottled it on every issue where they had an opportunity to make a stand. this idea that a minor party some how did them in is the most miserable excuse for stupidity and incompetence i’ve seen in a while. labor did this to themselves. they ignored several election triggers that favoured them, preferring instead to white-ant the man who pretty much single-handedly repaired the labor brand and defeated john howard. good going guys!

  18. victoria@108

    Better Better Best

    Sportsbet was on ABC radio this morning telling voters that the good money is for the coalition to win. Why would they be spruiking this??

    Like all bookies they are just looking out for the little guy. It’s tips like this that allows the punters to win big!

  20. Victoria (108)
    Centrebet boss was also on radio saying more or less the same thing, re good odds Coalition, but he did say he thought it would be very close, slightly favouring rhe ALP

    Are they tryting to get more money on Coalition to cover bets or what?

  22. As Possum says:

    The Greens vote has been the phenomena of the polling campaign – after taking a hit when Gillard first became leader, it quickly jumped back to its earlier highs and has pretty much remained there.

    That was the prediction from this poll-watcher, when Gillard double-dumped the ETS and ‘çleared the decks’. It was always going to happen once the voters realised she was not leadership material, but more of the same. The question then was whether the election would come soon enough before the inevitable slide in the primary vote back to the Rudd ‘do-nothing’ levels. That question is still very much the key, and of course will be answered tomorrow.

  24. I just watched Penny Wong getting drilled by a very shrill Trioli on their abc24. To her credit , Penny made Trioli look like the embittered partisan hack that she is.

  25. [Rudd became toxic during the mining tax fight. That is why he was dumped]

    that just sounds like a casus belli. the real reason i suspect is someone wanted to send a message to any labor leader, ‘we own you, no matter what you think.’ apparently it was worth damning the rest of us to a tony abbott govt. to prove that point.

  26. The galaxy asking a rudd/gillard PPM is definately push polling if they dont ask voting intention first. Why not ask Gillard/Abbott. Truly bizarre.

    As a previous poster sais, what impact would headlines of “Coalition costings bungles” or “Coalition to cut medicines” have had in the final days? Spoke to an insider who is extremelt frustrated that the MSM will simply not run with it. It sounds like Labor have tried.

    Suprised by the number of Abbott endorsements. They obviously jumped on Rudd bandwagon last time because it was clear he was going to win.

    At the end of the day, I’m with Grog, Galaxy looks right, no way has tone gained 3% PV. And is the unfinished Newspoll sample correctly weighted, adn who decided to release it today?

  27. [Penny made Trioli look like the embittered partisan hack that she is]

    I was glad to see her leave from Melbourne radio – now we have to watch her noggin on TV, uggghhh.

  28. A mate who lives in Canberra tells me he saw this roadside election sign this morning:

    “Don’t vote Redneck

    Vote Redhead”

  29. The ironic thing about the premature newspoll is that it may help Labor, who wants people to strongly consider their vote.

  30. [Sportsbet was on ABC radio this morning telling voters that the good money is for the coalition to win. Why would they be spruiking this??]

    Good money refers to the fact that you’ll get $3.60+ for the Coalition in a 2 horse race that is apparantly very close. It makes more sense to back the Coalition at those odds than Labor who aren’t paying very much.

  32. [@ 118 – ananony, your 9 am meeds are coming up. Stop frothing at the mouth and put it back in your trousers.]

    thanks george. maybe you can print that out and read it every day for the next 3 years.

  34. Bookies must currently be exposed to Labor loss. To “square up” and make sure they make money whomever wins, they need some $$ on Libs. They are the bastards that don’t loose!

  36. [at work yesterday a co-worker bemoaned the fact that Trioli was so left wing! i almost spat my coffee out!]

    Wow, this co worker must think that Pies and the Bolta are moderates who provide sober centreist analysis.

  37. Went on AEC website re being sick on election day. Can’t find what to do. Relative put their back out last night. Having back spasms can’t move. What to do re voting?

  38. Victoria,
    [Rudd became toxic during the mining tax fight. That is why he was dumped]

    IMHO that was only a small part of it. The real reason was that Rudd failed to stand up and fight for (a) Peter Garrett and (b) the Insulation scheme (c) his mea culpa on this left Labor completely and utterly unable to defend the scheme and the jobs it supported.

  39. [Bull shite Fredn , Greens refused to preference Labor in marginal Lindsay and Greens quiet happy for Abbott to win

    but thats what one expects from Greens bloggers as well , just like there Party , no principals , untruths and non left core values principals]

    With respeck Ron, that’s BS. The Greens do not have any obligation to preference anyone – we’re not a branch of the ALP. Having said that, nobody I know who votes Green (and that’s most of them) is going to preference Abbott and we are all horrified that this country could vote him in.

    I take a bit of an exception to being called pricipleless, a liar and right-wing. That IS a way to piss us off.

  40. I’m not sure the ALP can win. In fact if these latest polls are right, it can’t.

    Ironically ppl here have stopped analyzing polls and started to run with gut feelings.

  41. [Better Better Best
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 8:59 am | Permalink
    Bookies must currently be exposed to Labor loss. To “square up” and make sure they make money whomever wins, they need some $$ on Libs. They are the bastards that don’t loose!]

    They do that by adjusting the odds, not spruiking the Liberal party.

  44. I’m running out of Valium prescriptions here!

    I haven’t seen anything which suggests Labor won’t win. It will be a bit close. There might be a few uncomfortable moments on Saturday night. But Labor will still win.

    And the “bland, inoffensive product” will continue to be produced.

  46. [I’m not sure the ALP can win. In fact if these latest polls are right, it can’t.]

    Wot Labor can’t win on 52-48 from Galaxy?

  48. Roxanna

    Perhaps Ron can explain to the Greens why they should preference Labor when they have the worst policy of any Party re Climate Change apart from the Climate Sceptics.

  49. [Ironically ppl here have stopped analyzing polls and started to run with gut feelings.]

    Is that based on your gut feel? 😉

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