D-day minus 1

For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.

Furthermore:

• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:

“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …

One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …

The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”

• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.

• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “D-day minus 1”

Comments Page 2 of 24
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  1. Labor is giving Senate preferences to the Greens. In return, the Greens are not preferencing Labor in critical seats like Lindsay and Sturt. Nice.

  3. @Itep
    [They can still vote 1 Green and do that. The polls technically shouldn’t effect the Green primary vote.]

    Agreed, technically they shouldn’t, but the power of the preferential vote isn’t universally known. My daughter, 18, will be voting for the first time (Green) and was a bit confused as to how the preferential thing worked. She’s not daft, and it may be fair to assume that the Greens have a decent youth vote, and those people may not all be up to speed on the system.

    The threat of Abbott will have a strong psychological effect tomorrow I reckon.

  4. Well if the ALP manages to win the machine men will think they did a brilliant job and would have lots without dumping the former PM (incorrect) and if they lose they’ll think they did as well as they could due to their actions (again incorrect). Jesus!

  5. [scorpio
    ……
    It’s the media which is winning this election for the Libs if they get over the line.
    ….]

    Don’t blame the media, labor pulled out the gun and shot themselves in the foot, and then to the pain, jumped on the wound.

  8. Greens lack of preferencing Labor in marginal Lindsay shows what a principal-less Party it is , it stands for nothing except power for there looney fringe ideas

  10. [Toorak Toff
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 8:00 am | Permalink
    Labor is giving Senate preferences to the Greens. In return, the Greens are not preferencing Labor in critical seats like Lindsay and Sturt. Nice.]

    Labor made the deal, blame the Labor right wing nutters that are running the show.

  11. [Ron
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 8:04 am | Permalink
    Greens lack of preferencing Labor in marginal Lindsay shows what a principal-less Party it is , it stands for nothing except power for there looney fringe ideas]

    Labor was the party that pissed of it’s left flank and sent them to the greens, no use blaming the greens.

  12. Tom Hawkins,

    [Is the glass half full or half empty? Is it better for the incumbant that they are seen to be 50-50 or for it to be 52-48 in their favour?]

    This time I think it is bad for Labor. I get the impression here that undecideds & soft Labor voters have bought the line that so many voters have been turned off Labor that there must be something in what the media have been belting out for so long, and will go with what they think the flow is.

    ie: The herd instinct. The media has been running their campaign against Labor & for the Libs for so long now, that it is far too late to turn it around, the flow against Labor, that is.

    Bad mistake by Gillard cutting & running to an election so soon after taking over. The voters have seen through it. Rudd was correct in wanting to do some solid spade work and bed most of the problem areas down before going to an election.

    He would also have had the advantage of another sitting of Parliament to push Labor’s cause & show up Abbott & the Libs shortcomings which the media wouldn’t then be able to ignore.

    All it has done (running to a quick election) has increased people’s suspicions about the motives of Labor & reinforced the notion that it was a failure as a government. Gillard has reinforced that to some degree & not helped her cause by constantly stating that the government was in crisis before she took over.

    How can you change a government in crisis to a smart, capable unit in three weeks before going to an election.

    The flow of enthusiasm from women voters, euphoric about having the first female PM in Australia’s history has washed out pretty quickly and was not a sound enough basis to base an election on, as the polls are showing.

  13. Bull shite Fredn , Greens refused to preference Labor in marginal Lindsay and Greens quiet happy for Abbott to win

    but thats what one expects from Greens bloggers as well , just like there Party , no principals , untruths and non left core values principals

  14. fredn

    [Don’t blame the media, labor pulled out the gun and shot themselves in the foot, and then to the pain, jumped on the wound.]

    This is largely a media thing. Sections of the media, and we know which ones, went against Rudd like it was a blood sport and made his position untenable. These were the same outlets which gave Howard a free pass for 11 years, and are still letting the libs get away with murder. The ALP are operating in a very difficult environment here.

  15. Fredn, putting aside your lame analysis of why/what/where, can you answer a simple question, do Greens want to see a Labor party or Liberal party in power? And spare me “we want to see Greens in power”. Not fantasy land analysis, on the numbers it’s either Labor or Liberal, so which one?

  16. scorpio

    Very sobering analysis

    If the ousting of Rudd was to take place then JG needed to wait longer before going to an election. If I was her startegist I would have arranged a visit the US and/or the UK to demonstrate that she was on the big stage. Instead she has gone early and on equal terms with the opposition leader looking for a mandate. Not a good look.

  17. A dark cloud descended on the Land of Oz. And it came to pass that:

    1. The Mad Monk and his meretricious, mendacious, Machiavellian mob miraculously multiplied (minus Minchin).
    2. As the budget deficit shrank in the predicted three years, the holy Abbott took unto himself the dying Swan’s song: “It woz us wot dun it.”
    3. Interest rates jumped to Howard Government levels while the trogdolytes monotonously droned the mantra: “It’s all THEIR fault.”
    4. The stimulus was dumped and unemployment soared.
    5. Climate change policy went on the back-burner as the world heated up and the rivers ran dry.
    6. The Greens continued to bay at the moon.
    7. The miners gleefully proceed with the rape and pillage of the people’s assets.
    8. The tobacco companies, for the price of 30 pieces of silver, were absolutely free to market their noxious product in seductive packaging.
    9. Oblivious of secret plans to revive WorkChoices under a new name, the holy Abbott’s battlers rejoiced that they had rid the land of the nerd with the pointy head and the red-headed sheilah with the pointy nose.
    10. Robbed of a state-of-the-art national broadband network, the Land of Oz went back to sleep for the next 20 years.

  19. [Apeman
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 8:10 am | Permalink
    fredn

    This is largely a media thing. Sections of the media, and we know which ones, went against Rudd like it was a blood sport and made his position untenable.]

    Nonsense, when the bright sparks dumped Rudd “because the polls were bad” the two party preferred was at 52% and rising. Yes Rudd was under constant attack but he was weathering the storm.

    Your going into the poll that matters at 50/50. There will be only one group to blame and the reside in the Labor party.

  20. Scorpio ,

    we’ve had 2.5 years of Greens Party via th dispute cynical Bob brown publicly misrepresnting labor at evey Public moment , ambulanse chasing , and for 2.5 years Green bloggers hav followed suite here

    Then with extreme right Liberals attacking Labor from othr spectrum with MSN suport

    ….this is all public th peoples here , anti labor Greens , anti labo Liberals , anti Labor MSN is why Rudd (and now Julia) find there support is a fight We shall triumph stuff em

  22. William from the last post you said

    [Galaxy asked for preferred prime minister out of Gillard and Rudd; Gillard led 44-38 overall and 61-32 among Labor voters, but Rudd led 44-29 among Coalition voters (I tend to think bloody-mindedness by party opponents compromises these sorts of questions a little). However, no PPM figure for Gillard versus Abbott.]

    I’m interested, would this meet your definition of push polling? Reminding people of the Rudd copping it in the neck?

  23. [george
    ….
    do Greens want to see a Labor party or Liberal party in power?
    ……]

    Labor have run this election so well that is where your at isn’t it. The outcome depends on Green preference flow. I of cause don’t know the answer, but it I did my response would be, Labor made the bed, sweat it out until Saturday.

  24. Ron,

    [Bull shite Fredn , Greens refused to preference Labor in marginal Lindsay and Greens quiet happy for Abbott to win ]

    Don’t forget Dawson and two or three others also Ron. The Greens specifically picked out crucial Labor marginals to with-hold preferences on as a wedge to increase their bargaining ability after the election, banking on a reasonable Labor victory.

    The only problem with this strategy is, that it has been picked up by the media and used against Labor overall and fed into the media meme of Labor being on the nose.

    There has been the most media coverage of the Greens this election that I have ever seen & every time Greens spokespersons have bagged labor in search of a few votes and fed the meme that there is no difference between Labor & the Libs, voters have become more & more convinced that it wouldn’t matter if they voted against Labor.

    The Libs campaign has fully cashed in on this and it could most probably be the biggest contribution to their victory if Abbott wins tomorrow.

    I’m sorry, Greens, but you have badly over-reached this time and have read the electorate very badly.

  25. [Labor have run this election so well that is where your at isn’t it. The outcome depends on Green preference flow. I of cause don’t know the answer, but it I did my response would be, Labor made the bed, sweat it out until Saturday.]

    Thanks for not answering the question. Typical.

  27. This is going to be my last post until Sunday. This place worries me sometimes, and like I’ve said, you can tell Labor hasn’t been an incumbent going in to an election for a while.

    Labor will win the election. It could be 76 seats, could be 80+. Enjoy the day tomorrow and the evening.

  29. [scorpio
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 8:22 am | Permalink
    Ron,

    ….

    Don’t forget Dawson and two or three others also Ron. The Greens specifically picked out crucial Labor marginals to with-hold preferences on as a wedge to increase their bargaining ability after the election, banking on a reasonable Labor victory.]

    Once again, it was not the Greens that put Labor in such a weak bargaining position, or bargained poorly with the hand they had.

  30. Victoria + gloryconsequence

    Totally confident. As I posted in an earlier thread:

    [I’m quite confident of a Labor win. Nothing in the overall numbers has changed in the past week, especially if any of you have understood anything about the importance of pollytrends and margins of error, together with other questions asked by pollsters and overall analysis of marginals. As our vey own Possum in his blogs keeps banging on week in week out.

    Nothing has changed in my book, a comfortable Labor win, most likely 80+, done and dusted.]

  31. I have been wondering this for a while now seems more relevant… if the Greens hold the BOP how will a Coalition government manage to function?

  34. [gloryconsequence
    …
    you can tell Labor hasn’t been an incumbent going in to an election for a while.
    …]

    No they wouldn’t have thrown away the advantage so lightly, put themselves in a position where they depend absolutely on good Green preference flow.

  35. [75 victoria
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 8:27 am | Permalink
    gloryconsequence

    fwiw not everyone is pessimistic. I believe Labor will win with 80 seats]

    victoria i saw where ru mentioned half a newspoll what was that about

    and some one may remeber on the thurs night 2007 something similar perhaps
    ??

  37. tonights newspoll come in at 52/48. when Labor are pretty openly sharing ‘internal polling’ and newspoll are sharing 2/3rds complete polling… well its silly buggers all round. and i’m those posting here have been around long enough to read between the lines.

  38. fredn ignore ignore

    Victoria the link to the university news re less students did you see that,
    i have just put it some face book site with the permission of my daughter she gave me her password

    do you have a way of doing that to and also emailing to people

  41. [84 middle man
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 8:32 am | Permalink
    tonights newspoll come in at 52/48. when Labor are pretty openly sharing ‘internal polling’ and newspoll are sharing 2/3rds complete polling… well its silly buggers all round. and i’m those posting here have been around long enough to read between the lines]

    can you please explain what half a news poll is please and what it mean .

  42. I believe Green preference flow will be good and Labor will win the election. I think we are seeing a lurch to the left in Australia politics. A PM from the left faction of the Labor party a senate controlled by the Green.

  43. my say. newspoll said they plan to survey 2500 people. but at the time they released the 50:50 they had only polled 1600. so it was really an update of a poll still underway. we dont know what demographics they had asked yet. so it may not be representative of the full population.

  44. I’ve already posted my prediction of a close Labor win.
    I now want to share something that I’m finding increasingly annoying. That is, the number of people who think it’s cool to bag this and every other election over the past 33 years. It’s apparently fashionable to posture a cool attitude of “why should I have to vote – I’m a rebel”. There has been much discussion of voter disengagement this election. Well, it angers me. This is what I posted just now on Facebook. Maybe some of my friends and readers will think about it:
    “Please vote tomorrow. Think about it, but vote. Too many people have fought hard and long for your privilege.
    If you don’t like any candidates, then get off your a*** over the next three years and do something. Agitate. Inform. Protest. Investigate. Stand for election. Write.
    Lots to do.
    Important discoveries, events and… societal-changing times weren’t driven by self-serving “what’s in it for me” cynical Tweeters.”

  45. Victoria i suppopse we have to realise they this to sell papers and up set us

    the karma day willl come for all of them eventually we just have to get as much out there as we can even if we stay here all day

  46. Don’t blame the media, labor pulled out the gun and shot themselves in the foot, and then to the pain, jumped on the wound.

    Don’t give me that BS. The media first attempted a beat up over the fake email. Then the media got to work doing hatchet job – a beat up extraordinare – over the pink bats.

  48. I reckon they have released purely to give Dennis Shanahan something to write about. But tomorrow will be the final number, which they will want to be as accurate as possible so that their reputation as a pollster is maintained.

  49. I HAVE COPIED AND PASTED AND WILL PUT ON ALL SITES

    WHEN YOU GO TO THE DONT VOTE FOR ABBOTT SITE I CAN NEVER POST ON IT WHY

  50. [it could most probably be the biggest contribution to their victory if Abbott wins tomorrow]

    Hi Scorpio.

    Can I just correct the terminiology? Abbott won’t WIN. It won’t be HIS victory. He would be nothing without the media being partner to his dumbed-down scare & manipulation campaign.

    All they’ve done is uncritically propagate far and wide, for half a year, his demeaning slogans. If they had done their job professionally, the media would have said to the Lying Rabbott:

    [“What is this debt you are trying to frighten the people about? Australia’s public debt level is the lowest in the developed world. Only a dishonest scoundrel would seek to manipulate the electorate with juvienile, baseless mantras. We will not be party to misleading our trusting audience. Come back to us with something truthful and positive, then perhaps we will give your agenda due ventilation.”]

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