D-day minus 1

For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.

Furthermore:

• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:

“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …

One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …

The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”

• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.

• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “D-day minus 1”

Comments Page 19 of 24
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  2. Poverty, homelessness, dismantling of the public health system, high infant mortality, ethnic violence, urban blight, shanty towns, compulsory Bible lessons in the schools, rude nationalism, control of women’s fertility, sell-off of universities, unmitigated pollution … delights promised by a Rabbotocracy…

  7. I was thinking if Newspoll had’nt released their part poll, we would have had Galaxy 52-48 ALP and now Essential 51-49, wonder what the betting would have been?

    Any updates on Cowper or Bennelong at all please

    I have counted up seats and ALP should get 74, with Green1, with about 3/4 too close to call, surely ALP would get one of those

  8. That Essential Poll result looks very strange. Primaries Lab 38, Coal 40 = 78% therefore Others = 22%. Coal gets 9 points 9/22 = 41% of Others preferences, Lab only 59%. All other pollsters are getting around 14% Green primary with lower total Others numbers. If we assume 14% Green primary with 80% pref to Labor that gets Lab 11.2 % to add to 38, ie 49.2
    Coal get 2.8 to take them to 42.8. This leaves 8% of ‘Other Other’ primaries. to get to 49 TPP Coal needs 6.2/8 or 78 % of them! Since all history indicates that this figure is normally around 50:50, there is obviously something fishy here.

    cheers,

    MD

  10. [Funny how people say yeah to a “fair go” but no to socialism?
    What gives? They mean the same thing.]

    Simple. “Fair go” means I get something. “Socialism” means I share it with someone else 😆

  11. [therefore Others = 22%]
    This suggests to me that the polls are less useful than they might be. All it tells us is that a lot of people are SAYING they won’t vote for a major party (1st pref). Suggests to me a desire to protest against the majors which will NOT translate at the ballot box in all likelihood.

    I think this works for Gillard. There is more to protest about with the ALP.

  12. watching Sky with sound off, Murdoch’s boy wonder Speers has had a huge smirk on his dial every time he is on camera…I can see the legs on his belly.

  15. [TSOP

    ALP are behind in the last week of the essential.]

    Yet are ahead in the Galaxy one. As I said, it’s too hard to call. We can only go by two polls and only one of those is known for its reliability – and that ain’t essential.

  16. Saw a billboard on the back of a truck advocating a vote for Fiona Scott: Liberal for Lindsay.
    Nothing unusual about that, I hear you say.
    Except it was on the side of the road in Wollongong. What it was doing down here I have no idea.
    Lost, and broken down: hopefully a good omen for tomorrow 🙂

  19. Ah I see the confusion. Its a recount from the 17/8/10 which show an improvement for NSW,SA,WA. Essential hasn’t released it’s final poll yet. Apologies everyone. Essential twittered me, but I jumped the gun.

  20. [IMHO, Metalica jumped the shark on the black album. Nothing was any good after …And Justice for All.]
    I saw em twice as the tennis centre. Damn good live entertainment. They don’t have to impress anyone anymore. If they dropped their instruments and played with themselves for the rest of their lives, they would have earned it!
    You know, I reckon politicians would be some of the only people who truly understand the effort and sacrifices performing musicians make for their craft.
    Haven’t seen a lot of muso political endorsement. Except Kylie, “is love is love is love”.;)

  21. [Ah I see the confusion. Its a recount from the 17/8/10 which show an improvement for NSW,SA,WA. Essential hasn’t released it’s final poll yet. Apologies everyone. Essential twittered me, but I jumped the gun.]

    Ah. Now I’m even more confused.

    Now we’re just down to one poll! (No, I do not count partial Newspolls)

  25. hi All just catching up.
    Re. newspoll – sadly after 18months of the OO, together with Sky and the abc, I am not surprised at all.
    In my factoring I am discounting the latest newspoll completely – at least until the full results come out tonight (just dropping one poll out of many).
    Remember the seats where the candidates have spent the last couple of days.
    Still confident.
    Good luck to everyone tomorrow.

  26. “Are you embarking on a fear campaign” – brilliant questions, I could never come up with them. These journos are super intelligent guys and gals.

  31. laocoon: no call from me on parkes. Ind vote will be up, but no biggie. Loved the vid btw 😉

    BENNELONG UPDATE: the Sydney Chinese language daily SingTao has a big puff piece on Rudd and McKew. ALP to retain through good vote in Eastwoo

  32. chris uhlmann asking the PM that her assertions are a lie. awesome Chris, you have a special place in all our ABC hearts

  38. I think a few people are focusing on the wrong aspect on the Essential Report (or at least, the one the link points to at
    http://www.essentialmedia.com.au/essential-report/
    unless someone can point me to a more recent post).

    The heading is “Special Essential Report – Federal Voting Intention by State”
    and the date is 17 August 2010
    and it as the data “comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions” (not 2 week rolling average).

    The point is, they have aggregated 3 weeks to give something resembling a decent size for the state by state breakdowns. It’s not a new poll, it’s a new analysis of existing data.

    Key thing to note is that, in Essential (unlike other polls) the swing in NSW is worse than in Qld for ALP. Also swing in SA is better than Vic (also unlike other polls).

  40. Gloves are off. They need to do anything they can to destroy her.

    Guarantee if she bats away the tough questions easily, the commentary will be on how damning those questions were, rather than the reply.

  42. Someone mentioned Lindsay truck in W’gong. Appears Lib campaign is really falling apart this week. David Gazard (Eden-Monaro) has spent three days outside the pre-poll for gods sake. Lazy stuff.

  45. The AEC updated the number of peole who have voted 30 mintues ago

    Prepoll 1,044,597

    Postal vote applications 747,905

    That is a massive figure, over 4000 people have votes in the Seat of Melbourne yesterday bringing the total to 19,000 or 9000 more than the last election

  46. This is nice (except for the last sentence, but hey, there’s always one):

    Pandemonium broke out at a the Top Ryde shopping centre in Sydney’s marginal electorate of Bennelong, where Prime Minister Julia Gillard released four white doves this morning to mark the opening of the new complex.

    As she tried to walk into the centre, flanked by Labor MP for Bennelong Maxine McKew, Ms Gillard was mobbed by thousands of well-wishers – and some protesters.

    The Prime Minister was given a rose, offered biscuits and she posed for dozens of photographs with supporters and signed autographs.

    While people clapped and cheered and shook Ms Gillard’s hand enthusiastically, one man accused her of being a ‘backstabber’ and a ‘liar’ because she had deposed Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.
    …
    Ms Gillard told thousands of shoppers gathered the opening of the centre that it was built during the global financial crisis because its owner chose jobs.

    “In those dark and difficult days we chose jobs too,” Ms Gillard said of her government’s multi billion dollar stimulus measures.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/nations-girl-mobbed-by-shoppers/story-fn5zm695-1225907753271

  47. [TSOP

    What do you make of this silly polls?]

    Can’t comment on Newspoll when it’s not complete. A big thumbs down against the OO for reporting it that way. Will be real dodgy if it’s 100% numbers are more than 1% different than its current 50-50 position.

    Galaxy is saying exactly what I want it to say. I hope its current trend of being extremely close to the actual result comes true.

  49. [can you sum up Julia’s presser?]

    she’s talking about the positive things Labor have done and what she wants to do in the coming years, at the same she is contrasting that with what Tony Abbott will destroy and his negative policies.

    The Journos are interested in the polls, “how has it come to this” and whether she feels it was worth removing Rudd.

  50. PrePoll is becoming more the way to go for people who want to avoid Saturday’s queues. Will be an important strategy in years to come. Helps smaller parties concentrate their how to vote coverage.

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