D-day minus 1

For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.


• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:

“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …

One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …

The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”

• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.

• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “D-day minus 1”

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  1. [Simple. “Fair go” means I get something. “Socialism” means I share it with someone else]
    We share our infrastructure. We share our health system. I can keep going here.

    The question is where do you draw a line?

    Communism is complete shared ownership. Modern socialists don’t expect people to share their personal possessions, or prevent people from owning businesses.
    Governments operate to enforce socialist ideas, preventing complete dog eat dog situation in society.
    The financial system already describes our unit values, this is natural.
    Tell me pebbles, what is more compassionate, socialism or capitalism?
    If you want capitalism, go join the other camp.

  2. As far as betting goes you do not need to be trained price analyst to see this election as we speak is pretty close to coin flip territory.The circumstancial evidence seems to be that a slight late swing back to Labor in Queensland is being trumped by a late swing to the tories in New South.
    I’m not much of a drinker but I think I might have a beer or two later on to try and lift my spirits and hope the Nielsen later tonight backs up Galaxy.If it’s like newspoll prepare for the worst.

  3. @ 941

    It would be interesting to see if it works.

    Last 3 days in E-M the following number have voted

    A grand total of 11,766 have voted in EM’s prepoll booths

  4. To add to the above re Essential and prefs. The last Essential had Greens on 10, and ‘Other Others’ (OOs) on 7. I can’t find a report on todays ‘others’ split, but if we take the same ratio, then Greens would be 12.9, and the remainder 9.1. On this basis using 80% to Lab for Greens prefs and 50% for OOs prefs then TPP for Labor becomes 38 + (0.8 * 12.9) + (0.5 * 9.1) = 52.9, which is a very long way from 51. Screwing the Labor TPP back to 51 on a primary of 38, when the Coalition only have a 40 primary requires preference splits from the minors which are truly weird.



  5. No one shocked that Chris Uhlman’s missus is the ALP candidate for Canberra? How’s that for a measure of an informing media.

  6. I hope we all email Mr Uhlmann every time a piece of the Workchoices jigsaw is put back in place (won’t happen – ALP win, but you know, just in case). He is increasingly partisan – losing his head a bit I think.

  7. David Thanks. I managed to get a “feed” via ABC24. Picture broke up a few times. Now Uhlman is on rubbing it in that she was basically “lying” when she said that Workchoices would be back on Monday – obviously he has never heard of hyperbole or “making a point”. I can’t stand listening to the man so I’m going to take the dog for a walk.

  8. Corporate sponsorship signs plastered over schools, hopsitals, police stations, massive welfare to farmers, businesses, the wealthy, death penalty reinstated, heightened racist activity, a sloganeering, cheerleading national broadcaster, industries moving offshore, regular terms of trade blowouts, double-digit interest rates, massive unemployment in the next downturn (thanks to SerfChoices and the abolition of Unfair Dismissal laws), our natural wealth carted off by billionaires and multinationals, compulsory saluting of the flag …

  9. [Vic – had a feeling that you were a ‘banger!]

    What Vic does in the privacy of her own home, is her business! 😛

  10. Poss:
    [ On Julia’s current press conference – remember folks, men under 45 is the difference between a very small win and a big one. 12 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]

    Explains a lot.

  11. Bimbo #2 says “We know WC is dead, buried and cremated, yet STILL Julia persists in saying it’s coming back.”

    What a cheek JG has.

  12. Anyhoo – wasn’t bagging the BER and droning about pink batts etc a ‘scare campaign’? Wasn’t ‘great big new tax’ (mining AND carbon) a scare campaign? There’s probably a lot more examples, but you get the drift – the libs have been scaring people all year. Suddenly the press pack are offended by scare campaigns?

    Their treatment of the PM in that last presser was an effing disgrace.

  13. “Holy strategists Batman -Labor’s blowing like a gale!”
    I don’t recall anything like this before in the election betting in half a day – or even over one week. Is this a record for these waters? Now out to $1.51 on Centrebet; Libs in to $2.53.

  14. Possum on his betting maket thread still thinks ALP will win.

    I do too. 69% of the punters do as well.

    Time to stop with the anxiety, methinks.

    Why is everyone so unhinged by newspoll? Last time they went down to 50/50, they shot straight back up the next week to 52/48

  15. The reporters were tough on Julia, but I then I thought they were fairly tough on Tony today too. Note the difference in tone between the pressers; Julia’s was ‘where did it all go wrong?’, and Tony’s was ‘what will you do once PM?’.

    Ulhmann still believes the Coalition have ‘momentum’

  16. [I do have diverse taste in music!]

    That’s alright. So do I.

    Music is like food, the further you broaden your taste, the more enjoyable it is.

  17. Thanks Burgey – I eventually found it on free to air, but appreciate your help. I agree that the media were somewhat aggressive, basically accusing her of not answering the questions. What a pity it would have been undiplomatic for her to have told them what a bunch of sycophantic (to Murdoch) w**kers they are. And I don’t mean workers there!

  18. Julia (AGAIN) at th Press Club yesterday said

    Labors CC polisy IS having an ETS Scheme which Prof Garnaut recomend in his written Final Report , and that is her aim to get that ETS next term

    Green lies here ignore this fact Looks like Liberals and Greens Partys , both of whom each will get BOP in Senate after 21/8 , better change there Polisys to Labor’s ETS mechanism because Labor won’t hav a carbon tax

    If Turnbull becomes Libs Leeder he provides Senate BOP numbers to pass an ETS

  19. Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
    Liberal 40% 42% 37% 42% 39% 47%
    National 3% 4% 3% 4% – 2%
    Coalition 43% 46% 40% 46% 40% 49%
    Labor 40% 38% 43% 36% 39% 37%
    Greens 10% 7% 11% 10% 12% 10%
    Others 7% 8% 6% 8% 9% 5%


    Total NSW Victoria Queensland SA WA
    Liberal/National 49% 52% 45% 53% 46% 53%
    Labor 51% 48% 55% 47% 54% 47%
    Labor 2PP 2007 election 52.7% 53.7% 54.3% 50.4% 52.4% 46.7%
    Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election -1.7 -5.7 +0.7 -3.4 +1.6 +0.3

    NB. The data in the above tables

  20. 945:
    [That is a massive figure, over 4000 people have votes in the Seat of Melbourne yesterday bringing the total to 19,000 or 9000 more than the last election]
    Apparently there are a lot of votes for Melbourne at Australia House in London.
    Forget where I read that though……

  21. A number of you are not helping my state of mind.

    This morning I decided to vote Greens in the Senate, then Labor and then after painstakingly looking up every candidate or their party on the net, selected the order I so far intend as my vote.

    I don’t think it makes any difference whether I put Green of Labor first, except that I am pissed off with Labor over the climate change backdown after all that, well, grandstanding, and failure to clearly communicate the scheme.

    Which doesn’t mean that the Greens are not equally to blame.

    And I still have my head clearly above the water level here in SA and it doesn’t look like I’ll be needing a raft anytime soon. Maybe the Greens and Nick could make something happen.

    My nephew is in a same sex relationship. I reflected on what gay marriage may mean for him.

    That’s a few things.

    Anyway, I have donned my Kevlar, speak to me!

    PS I will be voting Labor in Boothby, as always. Got a chance, for once. And I am petrified that Labor will lose.

  22. Judging by the bahaviours of both campaigns in the last week, I refuse to believe that the Coalition have gotten the momentum this week.

  23. Abbott is a dill doing his no sleep stunt. He has given away the vital last day of campaigning, a day when many people make up their mind on who to vote for.

    Now he is in his own electorate walking around like a zombie when he should be trying to get every possible vote in the marginals.

  24. 967 BB

    I remember in 1996 Debate – Keating going on and on about Howard’s secret plan to bring back the GST idea. Even I thought it was a bit over the top.

    How DID that end up after Howard won? Never-ever anyone?

  25. [# Men under 45 didn’t like Workchoices in 2007 11 minutes ago via TweetDeck]

    [# Labors 2007 victory was built on men, but mostly men under 45 and they’ve flipped 11 minutes ago via TweetDeck ]

    The PM obviously knows what she’s doing. I feel silly for doubting her. 😛

  26. Why is everyone so unhinged by newspoll? Last time they went down to 50/50, they shot straight back up the next week to 52/48

    As far as this election is concerned, there is no “next week”.

  27. @eddiward – I suspect most people reading and posting her know that Gai Brodtmann has Labor preselection in Canberra, and is the partner of Chris Uhlmann. I don’t think you need to keep repeating it. Sheesh.

  28. Alan Moyes

    “What a pity it would have been undiplomatic for her to have told them what a bunch of sycophantic (to Murdoch) w**kers they are. And I don’t mean workers there! ”

    was word you looking for ‘wankgers” (per Rons originals dictionary)

  29. What is this ‘3 boats per year’ nonsense from Abbott? Surely this promise will be broken within a month.

  30. Captain Blood at 944… any idea what % of the total vote that has pre-polled? In the past this formely went to the tories but people have been saying that labor seem to have been far more organised… some seats will come down to a couple of hundred votes… will be facinating to see if the pre-polling makes the difference…

  31. Vic – I actually like Kylie also, she’s good bubblegum pop.
    Faith no More are my favorites from the old alternative genre.
    I also used to go to Kryall for raves – best venue and parties ever!
    Boomers, if you thought Woodstock looked like fun, you aint seen nothin’.

    I play the piano – jazz and rag sound best on this instrument.

  32. [Bimbo #2 says “We know WC is dead, buried and cremated, yet STILL Julia persists in saying it’s coming back.”

    What a cheek JG has.]

    ..and yet they all let the debt and interest rates argument go as gospel. Me thinks the journo’s aren’t as savy on any thing to do with numbers. DOH!

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