D-day minus 1

For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.


• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:

“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …

One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …

The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”

• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.

• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “D-day minus 1”

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  1. 985 – no mate, what he’s done is have the media and the public focus on that stunt. Have you heard one mention in the press today about pulling a billion out of the PBS? Heard anything about Work Choices? Heard anythign about the costings stuff up? Heard about anything other than “can he last the 36 hours?”

    It’s been a diversion, and it’s worked brilliantly.

  2. drrudi. many patently don’t know that salient fact as they seem to think that operative Uhlman is on the payroll of Abbott (or inferences to that effect). that would make interesting time around at the Uhlman-Brodtman palace. people should realise Uhlman is totally compromised as he has to cover his backside against inferences of bias. he should have withdrawn from the coverage.

  3. People Smuggler 1 ” Abbott says he’ll only let in 3 boats a year!”

    People Smuggler 2 ” That’s great news! Let’s go get a bigger boat!”

  4. On a historical note, the last Newspoll before the 1993 election had the ALP behind 49.5-50.5. Labor went on to win 51.4-48.6.

    My point? We won’t know what will happen until tomorrow night (at the earliest). In the meantime, I am thinking the worst to lessen the blow should the coalition get up.

  5. Julia confirming teh strategy in my earler post – need to target working men in NSW with the workchoices message.

    Personally I’d have a specific marginal NSW banner just saying “Tont Abbott will bring back workchoices” tomorrow to focus the minds of the punters

  6. I’m expecting a call back from one of Jamie Briggs’ advisors to explain to me under what federal powers, laws or regulations have been used to hit us in SA with 34% increases in power and 29% in water “imposed on familes by Labor”. This, and other outrageous claims are in a letter reccieved from Briggs this morning.
    I will be asking what levers Briggs and his Coalition cohorts will have available to pull should they get into power and by how much they will remedy the situation.

  7. Tony “I will nearly stop the boats” Abbott

    Like Brave Sir Robin ..

    … Who had nearly fought the Dragon of Agnor …
    … Who had nearly stood up to to the vicious Chicken of Bristol …
    … and who had personally wet himself at the Battle of Badon Hill.

  8. [dogma
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 3:15 pm | Permalink
    My say, yep it was apologies, I was too quick. IT was a recount which showed improvement for NSW SA WA by 1]

    thats ok good to look at a past one this week to lift the sprits

  9. [Then why is Gillard in Greenway ]

    She is in Western Sydney geeing up the troops, do all the people in the factory live in Greenway?

  10. @ 996

    I cant remember how many are enrolled in Melbourne, but it was close to 100,000

    Therefore 19% prepoll plus a maximum of 6000 postal vote applications( yesterdays totals), maybe 25% of the electorate have voted already

  11. @CW [Anyway, I have donned my Kevlar, speak to me!

    PS I will be voting Labor in Boothby, as always. Got a chance, for once. And I am petrified that Labor will lose.]

    The thng is, you cannot vote for one issue alone. It is the culmination, and if you add it all — ALP has the best plans and the best recent record.

    In the past CC was beyond their absolute control. If they win and Greens in senate, they’ll have that control.

    Gay marriage, unfortunately, is disapproved by more than 70% of the population, if I recall correctly. For every positive that sanctioning gay marriage would bring (vote wise) it would lose 3. Unfortunate, but a fact. The govt is basically there to do what is in our best interest (majority wise).

    That is why this boat people thing really irks me. A small minority have been given the biggest voice by Rabbott. Same on Climate Change. And the press have not obly let him, they’ve encouraged him.

  12. goiugh1: the workchoiuces: neveragain coreflutes have been put up by Bernie Reardon’s ERTU this week. They have become eponymous in marginals in NSW. Good network that bloke has. His members can climb telephone poles at will.

  13. Just over 1 million voters have prepolled to last night (not all figures from all electorates are on the AEC spreadsheet).

    Thats over 7 percent of all voters enrolled

  14. [familes by Labor”. This, and other outrageous claims are in a letter reccieved from Briggs this morning.
    I will be asking what levers Briggs and his Coalition cohorts will have available to pull should they get into power and by how much they will remedy the situation.

    who is he

  15. [Now he is in his own electorate walking around like a zombie when he should be trying to get every possible vote in the marginals.]

    I saw on Sky earlier he caught the ferry out to Manly. Mum was saying when the state govt privatised the super fast Manly-Circular Quay ferry, and then botched the re-tender process, resulting in a ferry having to be brought down from Qld to maintain the service, Abbott was nowhere to be seen on the issue. Yet here he is in a federal election campaign running on state issues like laura norder and graffiti. Somebody should ask him why he did nothing to maintain all day jet cat services in his own electorate.

  16. It still appears that things are very close in Macquarie.

    This morning, “she who must be obeyed” encountered the liberal candidate (M/s L Markus) pressing the flesh in the main street and this afternoon we received, in the mail, a letter attacking Tony Abbott.

    This one was addressed to my wife and quoted Mr. Abbott pronouncements on women all of which are very condescending to women.

    The final paragraph says-
    ”We believe that Mr. Abbott and his Government would roll back all the gains that women have achieved over the last 50 years. As Blue Mountains women we urge to consider these comments when you vote this Saturday.”

    It is signed by a plethora of women from the electorate and there is no indication that they have any connection to the Labor Party.

    As well we also receive a call (not sure form whom) pointing out that Mr. Abbott is a climate change skeptic and that he voted against the ETS.

  17. Something positive.

    Just received an email from my son who works in a large computer science and engineering firm. He said that all the rusted on Liberal voters are switching their vote to Labor because of the NBN.

    Too much stressing out going on here. Most election results are in line with with intentions at the beginning of the campaign. Nothing has happened to change my mind. Status quo to remain with 83 ALP.

    Not enough information from Newspoll to be relevant.
    For those requiring therapy go to Possum the marsupials site.

  18. [888


    Agree on Calare – hardly any party postals

    Do you have a view on Parkes (and briefly? I saw that you tipped the independent there)]

    If the independent can finish in front of Labor then he should win. There was not much in it last time and I heard Windsor and Katter say there was a very good chance tomorrow. As well, early on, there was a poll report giving the Independent a strong shot. This is part of a long run trend in NSW rural politics. As the Nationals continue their decline as a distinct political force, rural voters are supporting local “identities” that stand apart from the (highly-urbanised) major parties. For the life of me, I cannot see why even conservative voters in outback Parkes would want to support someone like TA, who represents a privileged-fake/smart-Sydney-centric outlook that is a world apart from the life experiences of voters from the tough-and-dry hinterland. The kind of nuggety parochialism that Katter and Co exude must have a lot of appeal in the scrub….

  19. [As far as this election is concerned, there is no “next week”.]

    I know — the next poll is the one that actually counts! and it will shoot back up.

  20. BK, That’d be the “Previous State Liberal Govts screwing over SA by privatising the electricity supply with zero regulations and entering in an inescapable contract with the coal station on Torrens Island for them to continue to produce electricity for us for quite a few years to come – even if we have sufficient, cleaner, greener energy production* facilities by then.

    *pedants will observe that the first law of thermodynamics doesn’t exist here…

  21. How interesting!

    My facebook account (which I have been using to post interesting anti-Rabbott links to various places) is now “unavailable for a few hours due to maintenance”.

    How convenient!

  22. [Gay marriage, unfortunately, is disapproved by more than 70% of the population, if I recall correctly.]
    I don’t think this is correct Jen. Someone posted opposite figs the other day. Dio should know.

  23. @ eddieward – is this your first election? Do you know who Maxine McKew has been keeping company with all these years?


    I don’t think anyone is too worried about any prospect of Uhlmann suddenly displaying left leanings. He’s as conservative as they come (so to speak). You surely can’t believe that to share a bed requires sharing political outlook? Heard of Natasha Stott-Despoja and Ian Smith ?

  24. [How interesting!

    My facebook account (which I have been using to post interesting anti-Rabbott links to various places) is now “unavailable for a few hours due to maintenance”.

    How convenient!]

    Eh, it’s Facebook. It goes down a lot!

  25. [http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/08/20/penultimate-polls-and-the-greensurge/]

    here is the possum link again as suggest by one of posters

  26. Well tomorrow will bring what it will bring.

    I lived through Howard, and if I have to I’ll live through Abbott.

    From my party sources here in Melbourne, Greens seem to think they’re doing very well at pre-poll. Having to turn away volunteers for tomorrow, and trying to get them to commit to less ‘fashionable’ booths / seats.

    I’ve got a mediation assessment at uni tomorrow morning, but will then be handing out HTV’s somewhere in Higgins.

    And then stocking up on booze for either a great or a very sombre night in front of the TV.

  27. BK, has he been campaigning much that way? I ask because a few commentators here were wondering why he is featured in the “Don’t get rid of Pyne and Southcott” ads, as if they are defending him too. I figure it’s just they’re displaying the “Adelaide team”

  28. I refuse to let this BS be spouted without a response 🙂

    Ron said:
    […and a vison of proved commitment to CC seeing Labor is ONLY th Party to legislate for it (there’s been no Green or Liberal Bills)]

    In October 2009, The Greens Party launched its Safe Climate Bill.

    [The Greens’ Safe Climate Bill is the first legislative attempt to transform Australia as swiftly as possible into a flourishing carbon neutral powerhouse.

    Where the Labor Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme locks in failure on the climate crisis by sidelining the science and sandbagging old polluters at the expense of the sunrise industries, the Greens’ Safe Climate Bill gives us a real chance of success by aiming for the goal we know we need to achieve and then setting out how to get there.

    Our goal is not simply to reduce carbon emissions. The true goal we must aim for is to pass on to our children, and our children’s children, the safe climate that has nurtured us and made human civilisation possible.

    The Safe Climate Bill is a collection of 12 linked bills based around the pillars of renewable energy, energy efficiency, clean transport and forest protection, supported by a real carbon pricing scheme. The Bill as a whole and each of its constituent elements are intended as exposure drafts for public comment and debate. Some of the Bills have already been introduced in the Senate, others are in exposure draft form, and still others are in consultation phases.]
    Ron said:
    [Green lies here…]
    Who lies here?

  29. Druddi

    The most volatile and intense relationship I had was with a Texan republican.

    It could never last but the sex was great.

  30. [BK, has he been campaigning much that way? I ask because a few commentators here were wondering why he is featured in the “Don’t get rid of Pyne and Southcott” ads, as if they are defending him too. I figure it’s just they’re displaying the “Adelaide team”]
    Hardly a peep from anybody. Briggs’ posters are ubiquitous.

  31. Bushfire Bill
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    Bimbo on ABC-24 wishes Scott Morrison “the very best” for tomorrow.

    Heaven forbid!

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