D-day minus 1

For those of you who have just joined us, we have had overnight national results from Newspoll and Galaxy, who respectively have it at 50-50 (from primary votes of 35 per cent Labor, 44 per cent Coalition and 14 per cent Greens) and 52-48 in favour of Labor (38 per cent Labor, 41 per cent Coalition, 14 per cent Greens). Labor has also been openly hawking internal polling showing it set to lose seven seats in New South Wales and six in Queensland while gaining two in Victoria, which is surprising only in that the projected NSW losses are above market expectations.

Furthermore:

• The Canberra Times has published a Patterson Market Research poll for Eden-Monaro, and while it falls well short of the non-credible 61-39 produced by a similar poll at the start of the campaign, it shows Labor’s Mike Kelly with a 52-48 lead over Liberal candidate David Gazard. Both Kelly and Gazard are on 40 per cent of the primary vote, with the Greens on 8 per cent. Patterson also conducted a poll of Paterson (a marginal Liberal electorate on the central coast, for those of you who are confused), which interestingly turned up a Labor lead of 51-49. This squares almost perfectly with the JSW Research poll conducted over the weekend, and helps explain Julia Gillard’s visit to the electorate yesterday. However, both polls had a fairly small sample of 400 and margins of error of about 4 per cent. A similar poll conducted by IRIS Research for the Illawarra Mercury found Liberal member Joanna Gash with a resounding primary vote lead of 54 per cent to 32 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly in Gilmore.

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald:

“Bennelong’s gone,” said one Labor heavyweight as he listed seats believed lost and those that can be saved. The punters agree. A rush of bets towards the Liberal John Alexander and away from Maxine McKew has seen Mr Alexander storm from behind to become favourite in just 48 hours. The western suburbs seat of Lindsay, held by Labor’s David Bradbury, is also on the critical list. It is one of the few marginal seats which was not part of the comprehensive preference deal with the Greens because the local Greens refused to be part of the deal. Labor says should Lindsay be lost, this will be the reason why …

One senior Liberal source said there was a growing fear of a backlash against the Liberals in Victoria and possible South Australia, which would be stronger than anticipated. The reason he cited was growing resentment in the southern states towards the almost-maniacal focus on western Sydney and Queensland. The interests of these people has driven the entire election campaign and their concerns, which include boat people and immigration, are those most easily embraced by the Coalition. “We look like coming up four or five seats short,” a senior Liberal said. A senior Labor strategist said the very same thing yesterday. “Mate, if the election was today, we’d win 71 seats,” he said …

The campaign started well but week two was a disaster. That was when the damaging leaks against Ms Gillard appeared which claimed she had argued against pension rises and parental leave in cabinet. In one week, Labor’s primary vote fell 6 percentage points. In the marginals, the fall was as high as 9 points. “Ever since then, we’ve been trying to get back to where we started,” the heavyweight said. “She’s pulled it back a bit, but it’s tight. There is no margin of error in this.”

• The Liberals have made a late play for Bass, unloading what the Launceston Examiner describes as a “$62.5m Bass splash”: a $60 million early intervention mental-health unit for Launceston, and $2.5 million to address the Tamar River’s silt problem made unconditional on the provision of state funding.

• Labor’s member for Longman, Jon Sullivan, committed an appalling gaffe during a candidates’ forum on ABC Radio in Brisbane while responding to the father of a disabled child, who inquired what the government would do to reduce costs and waiting times for specialists. Sullivan asked the man: “What parent would wait two years to get a child, who they believe has a disability, to get to a specialist?” As the Courier-Mail reports it, he was “drowned out by jeers before he could finish his sentence”. Sullivan subsequently apologised to the man.

• Today’s editorials have split along fairly predictable lines: The Australian, all News Limited tabloids bar The Advertiser and The West Australian have backed the Coalition, while the Fairfax broadsheets and the Canberra Times favour Labor. It can be presumed the Australian Financial Review will favour the Coalition, as it traditionally does.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “D-day minus 1”

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  1. Radguy, I am not one of said 70% — this fig was given on Q&A or something like it recently.

    I also think that personally, Julia would like to do it but party policy rules.

  2. [Despoja and Ian Smith ?
    1033 To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 3:22 pm | Permalink
    How interesting!

    My facebook account (which I have been using to post interesting anti-Rabbott links to various places) is now “unavailable for a few hours due to maintenance”.

    How convenient!]

    i think its been very busy today i posted 8 links on my daughters and son and when i went back my daughter had done some of her own, the site dont vote for abbott has lot s of activity on it so may be that means the kids are working the site

    that is why i am begging and pleading for you all to keep using face book, some one actully said young people think its cool not to vote and left us phrase or to to put on face book which i did in the share section is where i leave everything one feel quite powerful pushing the share button,
    so please find the links about pbs ( which i could not find todaymmmm} and the cut s in uni places. and put on face book after all its up to us to inform

    the msm arent goint to tell the kids and their parent its we should

  3. Dismantling of regulations on cigarette advertising, sell-off of public hospitals, 21 the new age of majority, higher education that only the ‘elites’ can afford, more media concentration, bloggers required by law to disclose their full name and address, internet filter front and centre, disabled sent down the mines, street gatherings forbidden, corporal and capital punishment …

  4. crikey whitey said:

    [PS I will be voting Labor in Boothby, as always. Got a chance, for once. And I am petrified that Labor will lose.]

    Voting 1 Green, 2 Labor is not a wasted vote, it is more like voting twice.

    Your 1 Green vote sends a strong message to Labor that you disapprove of how they have become such a party of the right.

    When your local Green’s candidate comes third, your vote then becomes a FULL VALUE vote for Labor. In the battle between Labor and Liberal, your vote counts against Labor.

    As to the CPRS, see for example http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/08/10/essay-why-rudds-cprs-should-be-voted-down/

    Remember that current proposal of both Gillard and Abbott to cut emissions by only 5% will not do anything to prevent climate change. It is so little so late that all it will do is delay slightly the time for the bad things to happen.

    Labor believe in business as usual (which is why, for example, they never bothered to start to reduce fuel subsidies or subsidies to company cars, etc). Though they say that they believe in climate change, I wish they had the honest to admit that:
    a) the science is wrong and going over 4 degrees will be ok, or
    b) the science is right but they believe it is not practicable to do much to prevent global warming.

    This election more people will vote Green than ever before. Why not be one of them?

  6. Vic – I know you’re pretty much behind the ALP, like others here.
    Here is my massive green pitch if you missed it.
    Solar power is going to be our saviour in more ways than one. We will have thousands of large solar mirrors to heat oil for electricity. During the day, at the push of a button, any unfriendly threat from above will get cooked by our super Archimedes rays. We can also use these beams to process minerals because often the process only requires heat.

    Did anyone wonder why we flooded the gold market a few years ago? I would hate to see this gold used against us in space.

    I have FnM “Land of Sunshine” in my head while writing this.

  8. Dismantling of regulations on cigarette advertising, sell-off of public hospitals, 21 the new age of majority, higher education that only the ‘elites’ can afford, more media concentration, bloggers required by law to disclose their full name and address, internet filter front and centre, disabled sent down the mines, street gatherings forbidden, corporal and capital punishment …

    I’d like to see that happen with Abbott A) relying on independents to govern and B) a hostile senate from July next year.

    An Abbott government will be inherently weak right from the begining.

  11. [Pebbles
    Hardly a peep from anybody. Briggs’ posters are ubiquitous.]

    BK, I figured as much. I have no valid reason to believe that Briggs is in any sort of trouble. Although it would be lovely to see him squirm a little.

    I like Psephos’ idea of getting an indy with a bit of gravitas to run for that seat.

  12. jenauthor

    I’m sure Labor would have been looking over the New Zealand Labour party’s experiences in social policy change, such as Civil Unions and decriminilization of prostitution. While some initiatives get majority support, the accumulation of baggage from these issues can wear down a Government over time.

  13. This whole elction campaign (in fact from January onwards) has reminded me of part of that movie Trading Places, when those old rich guys bet themselves $1 they can turn a bum into a successful stockbroker. Tony Abbott, under every angle possible, is unelectable. Labourt didn’t get that wrong. But for some reason, the Media have decided to use this election to flex their muscles, to show Rudd (at first) that they ran this country and they can turn a bum into a Prime Minister if they want to. This means turning a blind eye to his huge imperfections (no mean feat itself) and to keep spinning things positive. The Rudd/Gillard government was often called masters of spin, but to say in your editorial for four Murdoch papers that Tony Abbot deserves a chance, now THAT is real spin. I wouldn’t be surprised if Murdoch is $1 richer Saturday night.

  15. Speaking this week to a UK visitor to Melbourne ,who is also a Labor MP in the House of Commons..and she was amazed that the Labor Government here is under such attack…comparing Australia with the UK re the recession(depression??) and the success iof Labor here on the economy.

    She was just amazed at the public ignorance of just how lucky Australia has been
    She thought Labor should be looking at a huge positive swing to it !

  17. eddieward
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 3:09 pm | Permalink

    “Ron, bad time at pre-poll huh? ”

    ?
    I never said what sort of time i had !! , but seeing you is interested actualy it was fine
    And tomorrow even better , I will be set up Booth early hours to welcome a majority of peoples votin Labor ! Julia is here to stay PM

  18. More on Essential

    It looks like there might be another Essential out after all.

    According to Crikey earlier this afternoon:

    “An election-eve Essential Report poll will give no joy to either party, with no movement since last week. Labor retains the narrowest of leads on a 2PP basis at 51-49.

    Both parties have edged downward on primary votes by 1%, with the Greens picking up the difference, lifting their level of support to a robust 12%. The Greens have flagged in Essential’s poll over the last fortnight, but 12% means they are poised to dramatically improve on their 2007 election win, and strongly outperform the National Party. The anticipated decline in the Green vote during the election campaign has not materialised in any poll.

    The primary vote figures are Labor on 38%, the Liberals on 40%, Nationals on 3%, Greens 12%, Family First 2% and ‘Others’ 5%.”

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/08/20/essential-all-locked-up-on-election-eve/

    Confusion has arisen from this not yet appearing on the Essential site itself.

    NB comparisons with previous 2-week rolling Essential are:
    Labor on 38%, (down 1%)
    Liberals on 40%, (down 1%)
    Nationals on 3%, same
    Greens 12%, (up 2%)
    Family First 2% (same)
    ‘Others’ 5% (same)

    If you ignore rounding of the primaries, that would signify something around a 0.5% point or so improvement in TPP for Labor, because of the net shift from Lib to Green.

  20. #1054

    [ In the battle between Labor and Liberal, your vote counts against Labor. ]

    Could probably word that a little better…

  21. Interesting on sportingbet.

    57% bets are on ALP but is 94% of the money in last 7 days

    43% of bet are on Libs but only 6% of the money.

  22. Cuppa keeps posting all the terrible things that he thinks will happen if Abbott wins.

    As the Liberals are very unlikely to win control of the senate, and the Greens will not support what he fears in the senate, the only way these terrible things could happen is if Abbott wants them AND LABOR PASSES THEM THROUGH THE SENATE.

    Workchoices is a non-issue if Abbott wins because the Greens and Labor would block any such legislation in the senate.

    So Cuppa, you only need be scared if Labor supports bad things. Do you trust Labor to do so?

  23. [She was just amazed at the public ignorance of just how lucky Australia has been
    She thought Labor should be looking at a huge positive swing to it !]

    Did you tell her to never underestimate the insular, biggotted, idiocy of the the average Australian?

  24. [1057 Darn
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 3:33 pm | Permalink
    Just tuned in after a long break. Has there been any mention of an Essential poll today?]

    does not seem so perhaps the 17 was the last one
    which was not to bad for us keep that in mind

  25. [Voting 1 Green, 2 Labor is not a wasted vote, it is more like voting twice.]
    [The fundraising Green line.]
    No, just educating people how the preferential voting system works. I have managed to convert quite a few voters to change their vote to #1 Greens 😀

  26. I’m beginning to get the sneaking suspicion that the pundits might have overestimated the backlash against the ALP in Queensland and underestimated it in New South Wales.

  27. [If you ignore rounding of the primaries, that would signify something around a 0.5% point or so improvement in TPP for Labor, because of the net shift from Lib to Green.]

    so what does that come to

  29. Thanks lukas

    Re the Green vote – I’ve got no doubt they’ll improve from 2007 but I wonder whether they’ll hold up as well as the polls expect them too. In NZ the Green party was notorious for their vote not turning out on the day – they’d poll say 9% for a whole month before the polls but only get 7% on election day. And don’t forget the LibDems in the last UK election.

    However, voting is not compulsory in the UK or NZ so perhaps this won’t materialize tomorrow.

  30. [1073 leftwingpinko
    Posted Friday, August 20, 2010 at 3:37 pm | Permalink
    She was just amazed at the public ignorance of just how lucky Australia has been
    She thought Labor should be looking at a huge positive swing to it !]

    who made this statement

  35. [I’m beginning to get the sneaking suspicion that the pundits might have overestimated the backlash against the ALP in Queensland and underestimated it in New South Wales.]

    Qld is fine for the ALP. There are not enough seats in NSW for the Libs to win.

  36. MWH

    [Workchoices is a non-issue if Abbott wins because the Greens and Labor would block any such legislation in the senate. ]

    From the fruit loop himself (http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/mr-squiggle-abbott-signs-workchoices-pledge/1889151.aspx)

    [One caller asked if he would bring back WorkChoices-style laws via a “back door” – by tinkering with regulations.

    Mr Abbott said the legislation was gone, but admitted individual regulations were made “all sorts of times, to cover all sorts of day-to-day issues”.]

    i.e. WorkChoices 2.0

  37. [Bimbo #2 says “We know WC is dead, buried and cremated, yet STILL Julia persists in saying it’s coming back.”]

    Because Bimbo No. 2 probably thinks she has oh-so-much bargaining power and will get such a sweet deal on an AWA. God, there really are some people around with the memories and attention spans of gnats aren’t there? Not to mention intensely gullable as well. “Dead, buried and cremated” – she probably still believes in the tooth fairy and that the war on drugs has been won too.

    And the frightening thing is because they got some degree in microphone holding they are held up as ‘experts’. Good grief.

  39. How about we keep the retrospectives (eg. where it went wrong/right, whether or not the polls over/underestimated swings and the Greens vote) until after the election…

  41. The whole gay marriage thing always perplexes me – the debate should really be about civil unions (i.e the civil partnerships that they have in the uk). I think civil unions would have a much better chance of being on the labor platform than gay marriage.

  42. [Pebbles

    Have the betting agencies ever got it wrong with the overall result?]

    I don’t know. Until I came here, I never really followed the betting agencies that closely.

  44. Ronster

    Labors CC polisy IS having an ETS Scheme which Prof Garnaut recomend in his written Final Report , and that is her aim to get that ETS next term

    BS. Gillard said she wouldn’t rule out bringing in an ETS. We can read.

  46. [GUYS VOTE LABOR/GREENS,

    New iiNet plans 1TB (100mbit/8mbit) on NBN for $99.95]

    but.. but… but… drisoz, the Libs keep telling us it will cost thousands AND burn down your house!

  47. Workchoices is a non-issue if Abbott wins because the Greens and Labor would block any such legislation in the senate.

    But only after July next year. Until then the Coalition would only need themselves + 1 to pass what they want through the senate, and I’m sure Steve Fielding on most occasions would be happy to oblige them.

  48. [ Your 1 Green vote sends a strong message to Labor that you disapprove of how they have become such a party of the right.
    When your local Green’s candidate comes third, your vote then becomes a FULL VALUE vote for Labor. In the battle between Labor and Liberal, your vote counts against Labor.]

    It sends a message 2 ways:-
    1. In terms of the actual votes.
    2. It does not reward Labor the $2.00 (or whatever the current amount is that is being paid to a candidate for each first preference vote). It sends a “real” financial message to Labor Party that you will not accept 2nd best.

  49. [As the Liberals are very unlikely to win control of the senate, and the Greens will not support what he fears in the senate, the only way these terrible things could happen is if Abbott wants them AND LABOR PASSES THEM THROUGH THE SENATE.]

    It’s not all about blocking or passing it’s also about introducing. Abbott is not likely to introduce ‘good legislation’ into parliament unless of course he can buy off the greens which is quite possible as the greens will always support a tree over a human being.

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