D-day minus 2

Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on the Queensland situation:

Labor looks like losing three seats in Queensland at the very least – Leichhardt, Flynn, Dawson – and not picking up the Liberal-held but notionally ALP electorates of Herbert and Dickson. Beyond this Forde, Petrie, Longman and Bonner are within reach for the Coalition but still defendable for Labor. The other Queensland marginals – Brisbane, Moreton and Blair – look to be out of reach for the Coalition but this remains an expect-the-unexpected contest. Another unexpected wild card that is troubling some in the Queensland LNP and exciting a few Labor campaigners is the seat of Wright, the newly created electorate which sprawls to the south of Greater Brisbane and is, on paper, a 4.8 per cent Coalition seat. Some local trouble with the Coalition candidate, Scott Buchholz, and his electoral roll status as well as a few issues running Labor’s way has caused a nervous reassessment in conservative circles, although signs of a 3 to 4 per cent anti-government swing in Queensland make it look like a rank outsider.

Nick O’Malley and Erik Jensen of the Sydney Morning Herald note a curious fact:

But what is truly remarkable about western Sydney is the seats of Lindsay, Macarthur and Macquarie do not enjoy the largesse expected in key marginals. They are among the most important seats in NSW, held on margins of between 0.3 and 6.3 per cent, but there is almost no campaign pork barrelling. Labor’s $2 billion for an Epping-to-Parramatta rail link falls short of the region, though it will ease traffic. The best the Liberals have managed is $5 million to upgrade local sports grounds and some money for a bushland corridor. And still the seats are without adequate transport.

Elsewhere:

Bennelong  (NSW, Labor 1.4%): Momentum is building behind the idea that Maxine McKew will not be spared the backlash against Labor in Sydney. A Liberal source quoted by Imre Salusinszky of The Australian said party polling had their candidate John Alexander “well in front, confirming what state Liberal MPs based in northern Sydney have been telling The Australian since the beginning of the campaign”. However, a Labor source is quoted saying their polling has it at 50-50, to which McKew recovered after Alexander was “edging towards a win on first preferences” at the start of the campaign. A 300-sample Morgan poll conducted on Tuesday had Alexander leading 50.5-49.5

Robertson  (NSW, Labor 0.1%): A complaint to police alleging Liberal candidate Darren Jameson had manhandled two boys he believed had thrown eggs at his car has been withdrawn. Jameson is blaming Labor for the leaking of the complaint to the media. Imre Salusinszky argues that if indeed was a Labor plot to besmirch Jameson in the eyes of local voters, it hasn’t worked.

Herbert (Qld, Labor 0.4%): Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan were in Townsville on Tuesday to launch mainland construction of the National Broadband Network. The fortuitous placement of NBN pilot sites and GP super clinics was covered in depth yesterday by Nikola Berkovic and Adam Cresswell of The Australian.

Courtesy of Lukas in comments, here’s a full list of Labor two-party results from the JWS Research/Telereach robopoll. You can see a full set of results for Bass here; for any other electorate, make the obvious change to the URL. The Lindsay page is broken, hence its lack of a figure in the table. Bold denotes a seat tipped to change hands.

ALP WINS ALP 2PP% LNP WINS ALP 2PP%
Franklin 65 Leichhardt 49.9
Bendigo 61 Robertson 49.8
Deakin 61 Corangamite 49.5
Bass 60 Calare 49
Kingston 59 Bennelong 48
Braddon 58 Flynn 48
McEwen 57 Cowan 48
Dunkley 57 McMillan 48
Hindmarsh 56 Swan 48
Brand 56 Sturt 47
Eden-Monaro 54 Stirling 47
Boothby 54 Dawson 46
Cowper 54 Canning 46
Dobell 53 Ryan 46
Page 53 Petrie 44
Gilmore 53 Forde 44
Moreton 52 Hughes 44
Paterson 52 Hinkler 44
Greenway 51 Hasluck 43
La Trobe 51 Grey 42.5
Longman 51 Macarthur 42
Solomon 51 Bonner 41
Herbert 51 Brisbane 41
Macquarie ? Dickson 41
    Fisher 41
    Bowman 40
    Fairfax 40
    Wright 36
Lindsay ?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “D-day minus 2”

Comments Page 19 of 23
1 … 18 19 20 … 23

  1. [Oh the PBS savings are due to an error by Finance. Nice one Joe.]
    Did he say that???

    Noooooooooooooo.

    I still dont know what his claim to competence is

  5. [What are everyone’s election night plans??]

    I’m scrutineering and then coming home to put the feet up and watch the figures on tele fall the right way for Julia.

  8. [Oh the PBS savings are due to an error by Finance. Nice one Joe.]

    But his argument doesn’t hold water because it means Labor would have more money as well.

  10. Benji @ 828

    [If the PM is going to Newcastle, Paterson MUST be in play. Seats like Newcastle, Hunter, Shortland and Charlton are as safe as anything could be. Gives me hope for Arneman in Paterson.]

    Then she can keep goiung up the Pacific Highway and go to Cowper. And give Sekfy a last day boost! 😉

    The JWS poll showed it 54-46 to the ALP on a 5.2% TPP swing after all.

  12. [Ru

    What is the connection Hockey is trying to make between the 1B cut to the PBL and the Finance department?]

    Joe reckons that Finance have underestimated the savings when the Govt renegotiated the Pharmacy Agreement. So Joe now not only distrusts Treasury he accuses Finance of getting figures wrong.

  13. Hey everyone – back from a few hours of work away from base. Back on the comps and put ABC24 on to find Joe Hocks warning that Labor are going to sound more and more desperate in the next 24 hours, whilst sounding more and more desperate delivering that message 😉

  14. Frank
    JUST POLLED

    I am in the electorate of Moreton in Qld and have just been polled. This is normally a safe Labour seat but now I am worried. They were looking for the youngest male in the house and as we don’t have one I did the survey. Do people only poll if the margin is getting closer. By the way I gave TA a score of 10 out of 100. Wanted to give him 0 but thought the lady would laugh at me.

  17. [So “Hockey admits $1b error in costings”. there you go MSM, I’ve written your headline for you]
    well, hopefully that means that it is carried by the MSM tomorrow…like what else today beside Gillard speech and 36 hour man?

    Thinking about the demographic (i.e. older people) most focused on PBS, there is an even stronger liberal theme going back to Whitlam… always wanted to get rid of social medicine:

    – Were against Medicare
    – Want to sell off Medibank private
    – Ripped $1bn out of hospitals
    – Want to rip out $1bn out of PBS

  18. Even if, and I sau IF, this is true then it is a saving to both sides and doesn’t mean Libs are better off in terms of a deficit

    [Joe reckons that Finance have underestimated the savings when the Govt renegotiated the Pharmacy Agreement. ]

    The man does not seem to undertand the Commonwealth Budget

  20. …and apparently Tone isn’t sleeping for the next 36 hours? Is this a religious “thing” or is there a 36 hour “Leave it to Beaver” marathon airing?

  23. Public Servant,

    I said it earlier – the thought of Hockey being allowed near Treasury is probably more frighterning than Abbott as PM.

  25. A small prediction: if the Liberal Party fail to win this federal election (and Tony Abbott steps down as leader), Wilson Tuckey, Cory Bernardi, Barnaby Joyce, Kevin Andrews, Eric Abetz, Bronwyn Bishop, Sophie Mirabella, Phillip Ruddock etc will probably break away from the Liberals and start a conservative party.

    Issues like Climate Change and the GFC expose very clear fault lines between the Liberal Party factions and maybe if someone like Turnbull or Hockey is promoted to the leadership, in the event of the Coalition losing this election, it could cause something to snap.

    As I said, just a small prediction …

  27. Good move for the AFL States:

    Seamus Lee teenman

    I saw a promo on 9 today showing that JG would be going on the footy show #ausvotes less than 20 seconds ago via TweetDeck from here

    and in the NRL states the AFL version is shown after Midnight 🙁

  28. [and apparently Tone isn’t sleeping for the next 36 hours? Is this a religious “thing” or is there a 36 hour “Leave it to Beaver” marathon airing?]

    I think he’s trying to appeal to the “students who have a handful of assignments due on Friday” vote! 😆

  31. [Joe reckons that Finance have underestimated the savings when the Govt renegotiated the Pharmacy Agreement. So Joe now not only distrusts Treasury he accuses Finance of getting figures wrong.]
    Right let me think about it. Who will know better?

    Few hundred public servants whose job and experience it is to forecast budgets?
    OR
    Hockey and Robb cooking up the books in the last 12 hours since the PBS scam broke?

  32. [The 36 hour thing is the perfect example of what I am talking about. Abbott has his message for today. What is Gillard’s]

    That she isn’t an idiot trying to placard the news slots with mindless and pointless slogans

  33. [Some smart money pushed it back to $1.33…. seems like the $$ are really starting to flow.]
    The flood has them at $1.28 on sportingbet.

  34. Someone with a bit of clout (an Oakes for example) should contact the firm that assisted the Liberal’s costing document and tell them that they will be dragged into an ugly argument about a billion dollar error in the work they undertook over 2 months ago.

    I’d be interested to see if that firm made a statement distancing themselves from the document…. maybe they’ll admit that the numbers were provided to them at 9.00 am yesterday.

  35. [The 36 hour thing is the perfect example of what I am talking about. Abbott has his message for today. What is Gillard’s]

    Not resorting to desperate stunts, if that’s what you’re asking…

  37. Well the journos on SLY have just said Labor will win. Steve Lewis said Julia gave a great performance at the Press Club today. Yet they think the Libs won the campaign.

  38. The bookies say they have been surprised because every time they push the odds for Labor out they receive another sizable bet. Could there attempt to draw attention to the seat markets this morning have been an effort to get more people to place bets on the Coalition?

  39. HI Lacoon

    Yes
    1/Youngest Male
    2/ Right or wrong direction for country
    3/ Voted for at 2007
    4/ Voting for 2010
    5/ How strong the commitment
    6/LNP – no chance of voting
    7/Satissfaction with JG
    8Dissatisfaction with JH
    9/ Same questions for TA
    10/ Who deservies to win the election
    11/Whose promises can’t be kept after the election
    12/ Main issue concern
    13 2 statements TA going to take Australia backwards and the rest of the mantra or JG moving forward re economy and education ahd health.
    I think thats all but was writing and talking at the same time.
    If it’s not too much trouble could somebody tell me how to put something somebody else has said in my answer. Thanks

  43. george @ 919

    [ …and apparently Tone isn’t sleeping for the next 36 hours? Is this a religious “thing” or is there a 36 hour “Leave it to Beaver” marathon airing?
    ]

    -yes, he is going to do a triathlon carrying a crucifix

  46. [I’d be interested to see if that firm made a statement distancing themselves from the document…. maybe they’ll admit that the numbers were provided to them at 9.00 am yesterday.]

    Their caveat was that their analysis was based on the figures supplied only and could not confirm the veracity of said figures (or word to that effect)

  49. Good one, BB – you made some good points for him to think about and just getting him to agree about ‘waste’ is amazing. I’ve made no headway with the One Nation rednecks up here.

    Thanks BH. The job he was working on was a “crisis” repair – new tiles, sarking and some structural fixes to make the insurance company happy, plus water blasting and cleaning – all during a rainy period here in Sydney with rainwater pouring into the roof, percolating through the ceiling and onto my office desk and my bed in the next room. Nightmare!

    I pointed out I had to accept the first quote I was offered as I had no time to muck around tendering the process (“We’ll come around next week and have a look, mate” being the usual reply from builders). His firm got the structural work designed and completed and the leak plugged within 48 hours. I paid a bit extra for the prompt attention. Worth it. As was the BER worth it for the same reason.

    I also had pointed out to him that even the wasted money had a use, as it was spent (which was the idea in the first place), even though technically “waste”. He had got his $900 cash payment and I put it to him that the “waste” (at a nominal $1.5 billion) was the equivalent of about $100 extra cash payment per person on top of the $900 (making $1000, which was the government’s original target amount, if you remember, until Brown got in and varied it down, in the Senate). He nodded fairly appreciatively at all this, getting the point.

    I said it didn’t matter where the money came from, as long as it got into the economy. I also pointed out that he, as a roofer, would have seen his competition working on the BER, while he did the residential jobs. If they hadn’t had the BER work, then they would have been crowding him out, quoting on the same job (mine). As it was, he had no competition for my work and he got a good price. All good, sound logic.

    He also agreed that for him to have had to go on the dole as a result of the GFC and then (at some later stage) restart his business was a much worse option than a year or so of “slow” business (which he had experienced), but a year where he was employed practically the whole time. He had continuity of income.

    More nodding heads.

    I hope it sunk in. Youse’ll have to believe me that all this was done in a non-hectoring manner, over a cup of coffee and a bikkie.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 19 of 23
1 … 18 19 20 … 23