Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. We are told of a 4.6 per cent drop in the Labor primary vote in the six NSW seats, an 8.1 per cent drop in the eight Queensland seats and a 1 per cent increase in three Victorian seats. The Coalition are respectively up two to 47 per cent and 1.7 per cent in Queensland, but down 5.3 per cent in Victoria.
UPDATE: PDF here. The seats covered were Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur, Macquarie and Robertson in New South Wales, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt and Longman in Queensland, and Dunkley, La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria.
Note also this evening’s Galaxy marginals poll and Nielsen national poll covered in the previous post.
Other matters of note:
• Stephen Lunn of The Australian reports that Antony Green, Newspoll’s Martin O’Shannessy and Bob Brown’s chief-of-staff Ben Oquist all agree that Greens preferences will run 80-20 to Labor as usual. This is contrary to much talk around the place from such as Dennis Shanahan, who spoke of Labor two-party results bloated by “heroic assumptions“ about Greens preferences. The Nielsen poll released earlier this evening gave Labor 86 per cent of respondent-allocated Greens preferences.
• An article on the Liberal campaign by Simon Canning and Patricia Karvelas of The Australian is interesting both for its content, and in providing the first hint of pre-emptive recriminations in the Liberal camp. “Senior Coalition frontbenchers” have complained the Liberal camapign director, Brian Loughnane, had “left Tony Abbott vulnerable with an overly safe advertising campaign”. John Singleton is quoted in the article saying it had been “the worst campaign the Liberal Party has ever run”. Many of the specific criticisms proffered ring false to these ears, but it has indeed been notable that Liberal advertising has failed to target “Kevin Rudd’s execution and re-emergence, and the constant distraction provided by former leader Mark Latham”.
• Michael Kroger in The Australian optimistically rates the week a “draw”, and appears to believe the decisive seats so far as a Labor majority is concerned will be Bass, Corangamite, Forde and Solomon. He also offers that “a Labor loss in the seat of Melbourne now seems likely”.
• Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail notes the Australian Electoral Commission’s statistics on postal vote applications show Labor has lodged three times as many as the Liberal National Party in a “a clutch of key Queensland marginal seats”. Labor is said to have learned its lesson after being slow off the mark with its postal vote campaign at last year’s state election.
• The Age reports the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party is likely to disendorse its candidate for Lingiari, Leo Abbott, for failing to inform the party he had breached a domestic violence order.
• GetUp! have had another win, this time in their challenge against the Australian Electoral Commission’s refusal to admit enrolment applications signed with a digital pen and submitted through their website. One observer who declined to join in the congratulations was Possum, who argued it would strengthen the “potential fraud” argument the Howard government used to justify its franchise-curtailment measures in 2006.
[And am I the only person wondering why Redmond is gushing all over Pyne in that ad when Pyne’s moronic acolyte, Vicki Chapman, did more to lose the SA election for Redmond than anyone?]
Because she is a Liberal and knows it will hurt the entire party for Sturt to fall, not just Chapman and the left?
Scarpat @ 841 – From overseas, you vote for the constituency for which you are enrolled. Lots of details at http://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/overseas/index.htm
[what other place would employ him?]
The Australian probably. 😉
aww tnx vivi63 🙂
60 Minutes?
[Wrecked the Australian economy?? What a load of rubbish. We have low unemployment, inflation in check, interest rates STILL lower than under Howard, we avoided a recession and have one of the lowest government debts per capita ratio in the World.]
Yeah, but Brissy…… BOAT PEOPLE! MUSLIMS!
Dio
[More bloody Pyne ads all over TV. We get rid of Howie and still have to put up with Pyne.]
Must be costing the Liberals a bomb to have metropolitan TV advertising for a single seat!
Oooo.. “friends don’t let friends vote for Tony Abbott” on facebook now almost hitting 89,000
TSOP
[what other place would employ Abbott?
60 Minutes?]
Well with Latham and Abbott, 60 minutes would then be as balanced as the ABC!
Have there been more Pyne specific ads than in 2007? Might indicated the Libs are really worried.
[I am proud of the last 3 years.]
As are most Australians, that it why Abbott will be confined to the dustbin of history and people will study this election as an example of how not to campaign from opposition.
the abc will interesting after the election, the ALP can go in hard during a second term and not look like JH in ’96.
When that happens there might be some stories surface…
It’s okay, people.
In a positive sign, the Other Forces of Good (Swans) have travelled into enemy territory and knocked off the Evil Dockers by 9 points 🙂
Boerwar
It’s Cooma you are talking about! Wear your woolies and have handy a scarf, gloves, pullover, another pullover etc.
I don’t remember Pyne ads in 2007
[Must be costing the Liberals a bomb to have metropolitan TV advertising for a single seat!]
Pyne probably has his own campaign slush fund, the other Libs are probably fuming that he is using it all for himself.
839 cud chewer
To be fair, that wasn’t Laurie, that was one the enlightened Courier-Mail readers adding their two cents (or should that be tuppence) worth!
[Obviously stuck firmly in the past when a billion was a million millions like in the good old British Empire Days. Maybe that’s Barnaby’s troubles with millions, billions etc?]
How much did the Snowy Mountain Scheme cost? How much have our National Highways cost? Our rail networks.
Honestly, these people belong in the stone age.
markjs – totally agree with the ABC coverage – blogs on the drum are up for days, sometimes a week, and they have really dropped the ball overall. heasds must roll. better than the fairfax websites though…
Jack? Woody?
[It’s Cooma you are talking about! Wear your woolies and have handy a scarf, gloves, pullover, another pullover etc.]
Then double it.
Dio
I haven’t had the pleasure of seeing one of Pyne’s ads yet, but the irony of what you say is indeed striking. I can take comfort that it must mean that Pyne fears Sturt is now so close that he needs to spend some money. It will be amusing if he loses anyway. I wonder who is paying for them?
[Scarpat @ 841 – From overseas, you vote for the constituency for which you are enrolled. Lots of details at http://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/overseas/index.htm%5D
Pedant,
Yep, that is the site to which I was directed. You are right. It is the currently enrolled address that applies.
Blue-ringed Octopus Report 14 August
Dear reader, Bluey reckons a very strange campaign has taken a brand new Alice in Wonderland turn. Lots of Cheshire Cat smiles and touching wood on PB. The election is over. Labor has won. The postmortems are in. Plus, ritual sacrifices are being organised for the sick and the dying within the Coalition ranks. Bluey reckons that Labor’s Campaign Launch will be the first one that will have been done after the election is over. Anyway, be ye warned, Bluey reckons that it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.
Agendas: The polls. The pre hoc recriminations. Abbott. Gillard. The death of trooper Jason Brown. Afghanistan war. The Filter. Rudd! Asylum boat apprehended near Christmas Island. Climate change. Carbon tax. Carbon trading. The Big Tamil Ship at Vancouver, not Darwin. Mining Tax. The NBN.
Teams: Faulkner. Abbott. Robb. Gillard. Robb. Bruce Baird, Banks of Hawker/Britten, Burke. Wong. Chainsaw.
Narratives: Bluey heard three players talk about the election with Geraldine Doogue this morning, something to do with the Diamantina Shire. One outback gentleman opined that Labour had won the first quarter, that the Liberals had won the next two quarters, that it was a draw in the last quarter, and we had one quarter to go. Bluey reckons the Diamantina guys need NBN broadband toot sweet.
Robb claims that the Coalition was misrepresented on broadband. Not fair. Apparently, wtte, it is the same as Labor’s broadband but it will be cheaper. Bluey reckons that Elliott’s ‘Pig’s Arse’ is appropriate, in the circumstances.
Abbott implied to the MSM that they are not doing their job properly. Bluey is with him there. Now, it is OK for Bludgers to diss the media and to suggest avenues for professional improvement, even if some of the journos are clearly beyond it. For Abbott to be doing it, is the act of a political desperado.
Abbott was this morning trying to revive his biggest political success ever, namely getting up on his hind legs and ranting on and on about, ‘A Great Big New Tax On Everything.’ But, to get back to his high glory days of high quality policy analysis, Abbott needs Gillard to confirm a carbon tax during the next government. Bluey reckons that Labor should work one out with the peoples and then put it up as a separate and non-binding referendum item at the next election.
Abbott: ‘I may not be a tech head but won’t that filter slow the NBN down?’
A propos Afghanistan, Abbott copped a bit of a very minor flesh wound today for his multiple positions on Afghanistan. In particular he has backflipped on his announcement that he would increase troop numbers.
Abbott was whinging about all the Big Things he is running against. Bluey feels sorry for the poor little bully. Woe is him. Abbott is looking and talking like a Loser. Bluey reckons that Abbott is not even bothering about yapping ‘Underdog’ any more because everyone knows that he has won that particular argument.
Gillard out under a gum tree and in amongst some good quality beef cattle that looked to be in very good nick. She was launching a policy for expediting market entry for carbon trading by farmers. Excellent policy. The really big difference between Labor and the Coalition here is that Labor says we need to get the science done for soil carbon sequestration before we can get it credibly into the international carbon market. OTOH, the Yeehah! Wing of the coalition is rarin’ to get stuck into their soil carbon sequestration rorting scheme, ASAP.
Gillard re-challenged on the economic debate. She reckons Abbott is running from the debate and running from the costings. The gifts that keep on giving.
The Liberals have exhumed Bruce Baird as a talking head on Sky. Yet another Liberal geriatric, but he did at least look like he was still breathing, if possibly a trifle rouge. Bluey was thinking, perhaps too much sun?
Abbott launched a flow-through share policy for mining R&S and exploration. $150 million cap. Bluey is not sure how capping it would work because the activity is demand driven, not supply driven. Bluey’s alter ego, Boerwar, did say before the campaign started that Labor would be smart to make this promise. It is low cost. It had a big multiplier effect when introduced in Canada. It would have kept the noisy juniors sweet. An opportunity missed by Gillard, and an opportunity grabbed by Abbott. Good policy and good politics. It is late, but not too late for Gillard to match it, and Bluey was glad to see Gillard say that she would have a ‘look at it’ during the presser.
Discussions have started under various Coalition rocks about who should be on the Liberal Party’s post election defeat Walking-the-Plank invitation list. Abbott, Hockey, ‘lazy’ frontbenchers, and Loughnane under discussion. Bluey reckons they could save time by focusing on the keepers. Apart from Abbott, the only consistent performer for the Coalition has been Morrison. Robb and Hockey can’t count. Dutton and Pyne were plodders, at best. Bishop probably did a bit better than expected, which was not hard. Joyce was Joke Joyce. Truss was Dad’n’Dave. Turnbull minded his own business, waiting, waiting.
Akerman reaches new low, even for him: ‘You don’t know whether the broad band will burn down your house when it is finished.’ Now we know who gives Abbott his technical advice.
Robb wasn’t ‘fussed’ about the Nielsen poll because they got the Green’s preference flows wrong.
External event: The Spanish unemployment rate is at 24%.
Daily score: Win to Gillard mainly because Abbott looked and talked like a whinging and whining loser. Both had a good policy to launch today.
Win for Gillard 2. Cumulative score, Gillard 34; Abbott 22.
In terms of the betting odds of an incumbent winning coming into the last week how does the current state of ALP compare? I’d guessing it would be on par with 2001 – or maybe not quite that far in front.
allan & rua
youse disappoint me. I was thinking budgie smugglers.
Rocket @867, ok I’ll just edit that and bust Laurie down to irrelvant.
Q&A should be compelling viewing on Monday night. Now that the wheels are falling off for Tony, he might get desperate and stick both feet in his mouth. I wait in hope…
Did someone say there might be a poll result on a TV news over east about now?
cud chewer.
[Poor Laurie.. suffering relevance deprivation.. now its credibility deprivation. ]
Never mind, tomorrow morning he gets the opportunity to interview the current PM and the next one all at once. 😉
Ru
and thats even afore you leave the house
😉
[Well with Latham and Abbott, 60 minutes would then be as balanced as the ABC!]
They could have a debating segment. Oh, imagine the topics that will generate heated debate between the two of them, like:
– What’s the worst thing about the current ALP?
– What’s the number one reason that Julia Gillard doesn’t deserve to be PM?
– What’s Labor’s biggest stuff up this term?
apparently a swing of 8.6% against ALP in Qld according to galaxy
Morgan reported on 7 news
51-49 2pp to labor
primaries 44 coalition, 40 labor
[Had to laugh at this comment on the Courier-Mail Laurie Oakes story]
Good pick up. I’ve sent a reply to the numerically challenged poster so it will be interesting if it gets published.
Interestingly, using the 1,000 million figure, the NBN equates to a maximum of $1,900 per person for the entire fibre network. Starts to look like good value for money when reduced to that figure.
To me the media been the real story in this election campaign, Labor and the Liberals have been very average but the media has been truly atrocious. Maybe we need to revisit media diversity laws and clean out the ABC.
Galaxy 8.6% swing against Labor in Queensland. “Largest poll sample of the campaign so far”
Channel 9 news says Galaxy marginal seat poll out tomorrow has Labor down 8.6% in Queensland, NSW bad for Labor and Vic Good for Labor.
Win just announced a poll of plus 4000 in 19 marginal seats indicating that Labour could lose 17 seats in Qld and NSW. 2PP was around 48.5% lab 51.5% Liberal????
(it went too fast, so none of the above figures should be taken as gospel)
Details in the Daily Telegraph tomorrow morning.
Galaxy likes reporting that Labor is being murdered in Queensland. How about a national poll Galaxy?
[Q&A should be compelling viewing on Monday night. Now that the wheels are falling off for Tony, he might get desperate and stick both feet in his mouth. I wait in hope…]
Nah, he’ll put in a stellar performance just like Rooty Hill with a stacked audience a selection of soft questions.
Here comes the drums
Boerwar/bluey@874:
[Daily score: Win to Gillard mainly because Abbott looked and talked like a whinging and whining loser. Both had a good policy to launch today.
Win for Gillard 2. Cumulative score, Gillard 34; Abbott 22.]
Great post in its entirety. You are the best.
885 It’s Time
I guarantee it won’t get published.
I’ve lived in Queensland, and that’s why I put it here rather than bothering with the Curious Snail.
In fact I don’t know why newspaper sites (news and fairfax) bother to have that “add comments” box when they know they’ve already closed it off from publication.
Nine News had Daily Telegraph poll info
4000 sample in 20 marginals. 51.4-48.6 to the Coalition.
1 in 2 list Rudd as PPM in Qld. 60% don’t trust Abbott’s campaign message.
“7 ALP seats at risk in NSW, 10 seats at risk in Qld.”
I agree, Jon. The media has been atrocious, so pro-Labor they may as well join up. It’s just outrageous and this guy agrees with you.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/coalition_guest_must_nod_as_obrien_hectors/
[ the NBN equates to a maximum of $1,900 per person for the entire fibre network. ]
Over the proposed 8 years of public ownership it equates to $237.5 a year, $19.79 per month. Pretty cheap for the infrastructure that will provide the best broadband on the planet.
don
thank you
Boerwar
I dares ya, a pic in budgies in front of Grumpys Diner. 😆
MT
welcome back
🙂