Newspoll marginals poll: NSW, Queensland, Victoria

Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. We are told of a 4.6 per cent drop in the Labor primary vote in the six NSW seats, an 8.1 per cent drop in the eight Queensland seats and a 1 per cent increase in three Victorian seats. The Coalition are respectively up two to 47 per cent and 1.7 per cent in Queensland, but down 5.3 per cent in Victoria.

UPDATE: PDF here. The seats covered were Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur, Macquarie and Robertson in New South Wales, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt and Longman in Queensland, and Dunkley, La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria.

Note also this evening’s Galaxy marginals poll and Nielsen national poll covered in the previous post.

Other matters of note:

Stephen Lunn of The Australian reports that Antony Green, Newspoll’s Martin O’Shannessy and Bob Brown’s chief-of-staff Ben Oquist all agree that Greens preferences will run 80-20 to Labor as usual. This is contrary to much talk around the place from such as Dennis Shanahan, who spoke of Labor two-party results bloated by “heroic assumptions“ about Greens preferences. The Nielsen poll released earlier this evening gave Labor 86 per cent of respondent-allocated Greens preferences.

• An article on the Liberal campaign by Simon Canning and Patricia Karvelas of The Australian is interesting both for its content, and in providing the first hint of pre-emptive recriminations in the Liberal camp. “Senior Coalition frontbenchers” have complained the Liberal camapign director, Brian Loughnane, had “left Tony Abbott vulnerable with an overly safe advertising campaign”. John Singleton is quoted in the article saying it had been “the worst campaign the Liberal Party has ever run”. Many of the specific criticisms proffered ring false to these ears, but it has indeed been notable that Liberal advertising has failed to target “Kevin Rudd’s execution and re-emergence, and the constant distraction provided by former leader Mark Latham”.

• Michael Kroger in The Australian optimistically rates the week a “draw”, and appears to believe the decisive seats so far as a Labor majority is concerned will be Bass, Corangamite, Forde and Solomon. He also offers that “a Labor loss in the seat of Melbourne now seems likely”.

Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail notes the Australian Electoral Commission’s statistics on postal vote applications show Labor has lodged three times as many as the Liberal National Party in a “a clutch of key Queensland marginal seats”. Labor is said to have learned its lesson after being slow off the mark with its postal vote campaign at last year’s state election.

• The Age reports the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party is likely to disendorse its candidate for Lingiari, Leo Abbott, for failing to inform the party he had breached a domestic violence order.

• GetUp! have had another win, this time in their challenge against the Australian Electoral Commission’s refusal to admit enrolment applications signed with a digital pen and submitted through their website. One observer who declined to join in the congratulations was Possum, who argued it would strengthen the “potential fraud” argument the Howard government used to justify its franchise-curtailment measures in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,072 comments on “Newspoll marginals poll: NSW, Queensland, Victoria”

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  1. [OMG! OMG! OMG !
    OH going apeshit. The Rabbott just stated it is ‘SAFER’ to invest in third world countries than Australia]

    If he really said that he is going to be crucified

  2. [Dee
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:05 pm | Permalink
    OMG! OMG! OMG !
    OH going apeshit. The Rabbott just stated it is ‘SAFER’ to invest in third world countries than Australia.]

    thats disgrace ful didnt joyce say that

  3. One more comment I’d make on this Morgan poll:

    If Labor’s on a primary of 40.5 and the Greens are on 12.5, the 2pp is more like 52.5/47.5, assuming an 86/24 split of Greens prefs (as per Nielsen) and a 40/60 split of others.

  4. Dee I heard that but the bigger clanger was I an McFarlane’s claim that the mining sector was staved of new mins,

    The clanger is that only this week Rio announced a massive incease in profit.

    The Liberals are looking completely hopeless.

  5. [so pebbles if we sit them some where in the middle of each other??

    or not bother with morgan]

    I think the polling average has us somewhere between 51.5-52 in the 2PP stakes.

    I think all polls should be taken into consideration, unless they are obvious rogues.

  6. Dee

    [Are the polls reflecting where the betting markets are seat by seat at the moment?]

    No. There is some tightening of favourites but none of the seats have moved any significant amount today.

    The most likely outcome on the seats basis is still this event:

    ALP: 74
    COAL: 72
    IND: 3

    This is a disturbing result at present because it happens to be the only case of 24 I have studied from 80:67:3:0 to 69:77:3:1 where this happens.

    Newspoll today confirmed precisely what I said last night about ALL notionals under redistribution so Antony Green’s calculator is over-inflating Labor potential.

    Currently, Labor is 83, Coalition, 64 and Independents, 3. Calculations of changes under the current environment ought to be made on this basis.

  7. The betting may react to ANY piece of information that may relate to the outcome of the election.

    The polls are just ONE of many factors that may be considered by the markets.

    Saying that the betting follows the polls exclusively is just as simple as saying that a coys share price exclusively follows its financial report.

    You can’t possibly appreciate how absurd that is!

    BS @1006. Yes, if I had wings, I could fly.

  8. [If he really said that he is going to be crucified]
    Not only did the Rabbott say that he rattled off the names of Botswana, Zambia,Ghana. Small sample he rattled off a few.
    My OH is yelling treason.

  9. A swag of likely events, based on the betting market, and now the marginal polls, indicates a minority government for one side or the other.

    The twelve events around the outcome above are:

    ALP Outright win: 3
    ALP Minority c. GRN : 1
    COAL OUtright win: 0
    Coalition minority c. INDs: 7

    I think this is an awful set of events, I would rather see either side win that minority government and (most likely) a Green BOP in senate. You won’t get a lot of policy through a system like that. 🙁

  10. my say @ 1054

    It would probably have some effect if Swan were to say it but I doubt it anything Abbott has to say is of any real interest to the FTSE, for example.

    Re the Spooks DVD’s – I’m sure I’ve seen them available at ABC shops. I find though, that most of the inexpensive DVD players will play multi-zone. I have several DVD’s from the US (Zone 1) and the UK (Zone 2, I think) and they play no bother on my DVD player. Australia is Zone 4. Seemingly the zoning system was an attempt to prevent piracy of films – waste of time and should be got rid of as it doesn’t work at all. You can apparently buy a pirated copy of a film before it even appears in the cinema sometimes.

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