Newspoll marginals poll: NSW, Queensland, Victoria

Newspoll has targeted 17 marginal seats in NSW, Queensland and Victoria, with results that are heartening for Labor: a manageable 1.3 per cent swing in NSW, a surviveable 3.4 per cent in Queensland and, remarkably, a 6.2 per cent swing in their favour in Victoria. We are told of a 4.6 per cent drop in the Labor primary vote in the six NSW seats, an 8.1 per cent drop in the eight Queensland seats and a 1 per cent increase in three Victorian seats. The Coalition are respectively up two to 47 per cent and 1.7 per cent in Queensland, but down 5.3 per cent in Victoria.

UPDATE: PDF here. The seats covered were Bennelong, Eden-Monaro, Gilmore, Macarthur, Macquarie and Robertson in New South Wales, Brisbane, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn, Forde, Herbert, Leichhardt and Longman in Queensland, and Dunkley, La Trobe and McEwen in Victoria.

Note also this evening’s Galaxy marginals poll and Nielsen national poll covered in the previous post.

Other matters of note:

Stephen Lunn of The Australian reports that Antony Green, Newspoll’s Martin O’Shannessy and Bob Brown’s chief-of-staff Ben Oquist all agree that Greens preferences will run 80-20 to Labor as usual. This is contrary to much talk around the place from such as Dennis Shanahan, who spoke of Labor two-party results bloated by “heroic assumptions“ about Greens preferences. The Nielsen poll released earlier this evening gave Labor 86 per cent of respondent-allocated Greens preferences.

• An article on the Liberal campaign by Simon Canning and Patricia Karvelas of The Australian is interesting both for its content, and in providing the first hint of pre-emptive recriminations in the Liberal camp. “Senior Coalition frontbenchers” have complained the Liberal camapign director, Brian Loughnane, had “left Tony Abbott vulnerable with an overly safe advertising campaign”. John Singleton is quoted in the article saying it had been “the worst campaign the Liberal Party has ever run”. Many of the specific criticisms proffered ring false to these ears, but it has indeed been notable that Liberal advertising has failed to target “Kevin Rudd’s execution and re-emergence, and the constant distraction provided by former leader Mark Latham”.

• Michael Kroger in The Australian optimistically rates the week a “draw”, and appears to believe the decisive seats so far as a Labor majority is concerned will be Bass, Corangamite, Forde and Solomon. He also offers that “a Labor loss in the seat of Melbourne now seems likely”.

Emma Chalmers of the Courier-Mail notes the Australian Electoral Commission’s statistics on postal vote applications show Labor has lodged three times as many as the Liberal National Party in a “a clutch of key Queensland marginal seats”. Labor is said to have learned its lesson after being slow off the mark with its postal vote campaign at last year’s state election.

• The Age reports the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party is likely to disendorse its candidate for Lingiari, Leo Abbott, for failing to inform the party he had breached a domestic violence order.

• GetUp! have had another win, this time in their challenge against the Australian Electoral Commission’s refusal to admit enrolment applications signed with a digital pen and submitted through their website. One observer who declined to join in the congratulations was Possum, who argued it would strengthen the “potential fraud” argument the Howard government used to justify its franchise-curtailment measures in 2006.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,072 comments on “Newspoll marginals poll: NSW, Queensland, Victoria”

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  1. [Allan Moyes
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 6:42 pm | Permalink
    my say @ 962

    Now, now, chin up! That’s ]

    yes i sure did, love it it was in an episode of spooks and i just had to find it on the net. now thats one programe perhaps the abc cannot afford any more may be they have to many jounalists

  2. Via FB –

    SundayHeraldSun: In the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia. Our exclusive poll shows that Tony Abbott is within striking distance of the Lodge with the Coalition set to pickup 17 seats next Saturday. Full story in tomorrow’s Sunday Herald-Sun,

  3. [so is that what has happened it was a face to face now a phone poll
    is that correct is that what you are saying]

    Yes. That huge Morgan from the other night was a face to face, whereas this 51-49 one is a phone poll, the last of which was 50-50.

  4. [958 Gary
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 6:37 pm | Permalink
    Wouldn’t that 4000 poll have to be an online poll?
    ]

    well the essential on line poll do about 1700 per week. So have we established this lot on the news to night is a mix of galaxy and morgan.
    yell yell

  5. my say

    Glad to help. I’m afraid the ABC isn’t what it was when it comes to quality programming but every now and then they manage to scrape enough $$ together to buy something worthwhile – usually from the BBC or the other UK mob. Have you been watching the “Cranford” series at all (with Judy Dench among others) or do you not like “period” pieces?

  6. [Yes. That huge Morgan from the other night was a face to face, whereas this 51-49
    ]

    which from memory william put it at about doing some sums of his own give or take a few points.

    so what was neilson last night

  7. [In the largest opinion poll ever conducted in Australia]

    Which would suggest it’s a single poll rather than a compilation. Why did they publish their “Western Sydney” poll separately?

  8. I reckon there could be some methodological problems with a Morgan phone poll taken only on one day, especially when that day was TODAY. Think about it: they would have had to have completed the work early enough to deliver it to nine well ahead of the 6pm news. So the interviews could not have involved any calls beyond say mid-to-late afternoon. Think about who may not be home on Saturday morning & afternoon. Quite likely under-represents parents of school-age families, and possibly workers who do their shopping on weekends.

  9. It’s only correct to compare this Morgan phone poll to the previous ones – i.e. phone polls only. His face-to-face polls have a vastly different methodology. Ignore the ridiculous waffle on the Roy Morgan website, it’s meaningless.

    Therefore we have (ALP / Coalition):
    July 20/21 – 55.5 / 44.5
    July 27/28 – 53 / 47
    August 3 – 49.5 / 50.5
    August 14 – 51.5 / 48.5

    Therefore, all this tells us is that Labor has gained 2 points since the last phone poll. Trending up. Looking good, though not yet good enough. Still some work to do, but we’re on the home stretch.

  10. I love the cranford series and jane austen,
    I only said to my oh today i wonder if you can buy in the uk a series of Spooks
    silly question but to there dvds work here i know some products from the us do not.

  11. How many swinging voters are home on a Saturday. Most people would be shopping, at local sport with their kids or at work.

  12. [You’re right Pebbles. The Morgan phone poll is more reliable and the ‘real’ result is probably somewhere around 51.5/48.5 at the moment. Things are still close and neither side is in an unbeatable position]

    Why are we discarding the Nielsen 53-47 Poll? Why should Morgan have any more credibility than Nielsen, especially since Nielsen
    has been understating the Labor PV for the last few months.

  13. [Sportingbet – ALP $1.25 Lib $3.85

    It’s all one way folks.]
    Are the polls reflecting where the betting markets are seat by seat at the moment?

  14. [This latest Morgan phone poll wasn’t taken today. It was taken last weekend.]

    Then why does it have this on the Morgan site:

    Federal Poll : Finding No. 4559 : This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted today, August 14, 2010

  15. Sympathy to MT; hope you find next Saturday’s results therapeutic.

    Thanks cud chewer and radguy; sorry if my rant was a bit long.

    I should say that I do not want to see infrastructure spending increased at the expense of health and education – I think they need more funds too! But I was just reflecting that overall we are on a downward trend in my area. The unwillingness to recognise the need for the NBN by many is a clasical exampel of the thinking, despite the fact that the cost per person is less than 2 years of Telstra bills – quite crazy really.

    Still it is a craze embraced by a major political party that trumpets itself as “economically responsible”. They aren’t; they’re morons. Yet almost 50% of voters fall for it.

  16. [Are the polls reflecting where the betting markets are seat by seat at the moment?]

    so how many seats have good odds and last time around where they on the money
    how do people know what to put their money on are they insiders or what

  17. This latest Morgan phone poll wasn’t taken today. It was taken last weekend]

    Does that mean it was taken at the same time as the FTF?
    [

  18. [1034 JJ Fiasson
    Posted Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 7:00 pm | Permalink
    @my say]

    are you going to continue you should, i think the online news etc will soon overtake the others people want more than the msm

  19. Fisticuffs in Dawson from the candidate. Damn. Doesn’t Brunker realise my money is on him?

    The Labor candidate for the central Queensland seat of Dawson has been involved in a scuffle with the president of the Bowen Turf Club before the first race on Saturday.

    Mike Brunker, the ALP candidate and mayor of the Whitsunday Regional Council, tussled with club president Cyril Vains just before the off at 1.40pm (AEST).

    Apparently the turf committee member objected to Brunker’s signs being near the entrance to the track.
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/labor-candidate-in-punch-up-20100814-123zm.html

    From my perusal of the local paper, with full coverage of the Lib candidate and Barnaby Joyce’s visit, but nothing on Brunker over the past couple of days, he may have felt compelled to get some coverage somehow, anyhow.

  20. o well taken today sat not to many people home on sat, i suppose not young ones any way.

    so does he have pri vote and what was neilson i have forgotten all to much

  21. Roy Morgan’s comments are full of comedy gold, a couple of selections form this poll:

    [The significant publicity surrounding Rudd’s acceptance of a job with the United Nations — obviously treating his future role in Parliament as a part-time commitment]

    [Julia Gillard’s $2.6 billion election rail link will be seen by many as blatant (financially absurd) pork-barrelling in the seat of Bennelong. It has probably ‘stripped’ her of any credibility on economic matters — such as managing the economy, minimising rises in day-to-day living costs or reducing taxes]

  22. [Then why does it have this on the Morgan site:

    Federal Poll : Finding No. 4559 : This telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted today, August 14, 2010]

    Haven’t we already heard that polls taken all in the one day are very suss?

  23. Didn’t Psephos say recently that Qld and NSW were “coming home to mama”? Unless he was talking through the wine (he did say he had been attending some function with the RTWH or whatever they are called), you’d think he would know what he was talking about.

    4000 in one day as Canberra Boy says above sounds a bit spurious to me. And remember, it is a garbage Sunday fish and chip wrapper we are talking about and, if it’s the Herald Sun, Murdoch’s to boot.

  24. [Why are we discarding the Nielsen 53-47 Poll? Why should Morgan have any more credibility than Nielsen, especially since Nielsen
    has been understating the Labor PV for the last few months.]

    I’m not.

    I’m just saying, trend wise, it is better to compare the current Morgan phone poll to the last Morgan phone poll, rather than the most recent Morgan face to face.

  25. [Why are we discarding the Nielsen 53-47 Poll? Why should Morgan have any more credibility than Nielsen, especially since Nielsen
    has been understating the Labor PV for the last few months.]

    exactly … did they have a pri vote it was 40 wasnt it

  26. [If the betting markets trend down now it’ll be further proof of their reacting to polls.]

    Yes, that will be an interesting observation. If this causes any big monetary movements back to the Coalition.

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