Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Crikey reports today’s Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead down to 52-48 from 54-46 last week. Essential polls are a rolling two-week average, so it makes sense that they should have trailed the pack in recording Labor’s mid-campaign slump. The Coalition is up three on the primary vote to 42 per cent and Labor up one to 41 per cent, both taking up slack from a three-point decline for the Greens, down to 10 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full report here. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 45 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 40 per cent and down three on disapproval to 45 per cent. On preferred prime minister, the gap has narrowed from 48-30 to 45-33. Thirty-eight per cent say their opinion of Gillard has gone down since the election was called against 18 per cent who say it has gone up; more surprisingly, the respective figures for Tony Abbott are 9 per cent and 42 per cent. There are also questions on which party is best to handle various issues.

General:

• Michael Kroger has written an article for The Australian on prospects for the election which becomes doubly interesting if you read between some lines. Throughout the article he operates off post-redistribution seat status, giving Labor 88 rather than 83 seats, before concluding that “Labor would do well to keep its net losses to under 10 seats”. While this may have been framed negatively for Labor, the suggestion seems to be that he expects them to narrowly win. Kroger sounds especially confident about Sturt and Solomon, though by omission the former suggests he may expect trouble in Boothby. The Coalition is also rated likely to win a “swag” of seats in Queensland and up to five in New South Wales, along with Hasluck and Swan in Western Australia.

• On the Channel Ten news last night, Paul Bongiorno said a Liberal insider had offered him the implausible claim that their polling showed “Labor would be lucky to hold on to one seat” in Queensland. More believably, Geoff Kitney of the Financial Review offered that both sides’ polling showed “the Coalition is in front in every marginal seat in the state”, with Labor “battling to prevent the loss of all its Queensland seats with a margin of up to 4.2 per cent”, namely Herbert, Dickson, Longman, Flynn, Dawson, Forde, Brisbane, Leichhardt and Petrie. Mark Ludlow of the Financial Review says seats likely to be targeted by Kevin Rudd are in fact slightly beyond this range: Bonner (4.5 per cent) and Moreton (6.2 per cent).

• Tom Dusevic of The Australian comments on the Coalition’s latent fear of Labor’s marginal seat sandbagging abilities, which succeeded beyond the bounds of what appeared possible in the South Australian election in March. Significantly, Tony Abbott felt compelled to declare during his campaign launch that “to change this government you have to throw out your Labor MP”.

• Former Labor Senator Stephen Loosley writes in The Australian that “Labor is seeking to hold government without necessarily achieving the accepted prerequisite for winning”, namely that “every federal Labor government from Chris Watson to Paul Keating has been based on carrying NSW”.

• The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Local:

Leichhardt (Labor 4.1%): Tony Abbott was in northern Queensland last Monday, where he promised $62 million would be spent on the tourism industry. The choice of Cairns as the scene for the announcement was highly significant, as unemployment has rise to near double-digit levels there due to a downturn in tourism.

Herbert (notional Labor 0.4%): Abbott’s northern Queensland sojourn also included a stop at Townsville, where he promised $21 million flood-proof Blakeys Crossing. Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin found this “strange”, as apparently any local can tell you that flooding on the lower Bohle Bridge of Bruce Highway is a greater concern. On Thursday, Julia Gillard was in town promising “up to” $160 million for a section of a ring road linking the Douglas Arterial to the Bruce Highway at Mt Low.

La Trobe (Liberal 0.5%): Labor has promised $55 million to widen a dangerous stretch of Clyde Road, which the Liberals have trumped with an $85 million promise of a railway underpass. Sushi Das of The Age surveys the electoral terrain:

Labor’s strength around the mountain area has been countered by increasing Liberal dominance in the south of the electorate, where new housing estates have emerged. Narre Warren North and Pakenham form the heart of these newly developed areas attracting trades people, small business owners and young families who have been forced further out in their hunt for affordable housing. More housing developments are planned for nearby Officer over the next few years, making the south of the electorate one of the fastest growing corridors in Victoria. Indeed, an average of five families a day are moving into the area, according to the Cardinia Shire Council. The developments have provided local employment alongside jobs provided by more established light industries and firms producing car accessories.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,905 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  5. Leaflet watch in Wentworth.

    Turnbull (he is apparently not the Liberal candidate) 4
    Lewis (no sign he is the Labor candidate) 0

  19. In the Sydney Morning Herald
    Labor has been the subject of a huge betting plunge on it winning the August 21 election.
    Centrebet received a bet of $20,000 at 10am, immediately shortening Labor’s odds of winning. But this was trumped only 40 minutes later by a $40,000 wa…ger and then another bet of $15,000.
    More cash has since flowed Labor’s way this afternoon – including bets of $3000 and $5000 – seeing the odds of Julia Gillard becoming prime minister shorten from $1.62 to $1.51.

  21. In the same paper
    The Coalition has now blown out to $2.54.
    The opposition had originally been backed in at $2.27 over the weekend, its shortest price, after Ms Gillard was confronted by Mr Latham and endured an awkward get together with Kevin Rudd.
    “Despite …being heavily backed in many key marginal seats, budgetary pressures on the Coalition’s senior team are mounting, and Mr Abbott must now get right on the policy front foot,” Mr Evans said.
    “Right now, Labor is winning … but this is a bizarre and unique election.
    “The shortening of the odds for Labor in just half a day is a massive statement.”
    See More

  22. See you on the other side of the election, bludgers, will be mostly not able to use a computer and the net for a while. Nevertheless, we’ll win!

  24. [Centrebet received a bet of $20,000 at 10am, immediately shortening Labor’s odds of winning. But this was trumped only 40 minutes later by a $40,000 wa…ger and then another bet of $15,000.]

    sounds like centre was up early

  25. Policeman to confused looking man
    streaking through the University grounds
    – “Dr.Heisenberg, do you know where you are?”

    Heisenberg – “No, officer, but I knew exactly how fast I was going.”

  27. [I am in Grayndler and have had no pamphlets – but as it is flats behind a gate – I suspect I wont get any anyway.]

    Boundary,

    I have a vision of you barricaded in from the threat of Fiberal advertising material.

  32. [Interesting – could the LNP be about to disendorse that fruitcake?]

    He would just walk if he had any sense. It was behaviour no better than Barker displayed earlier in Chifley. The Liberals have lost the plot.

  33. Bets of that size at this stage reek of an arbitrage play. Weeks ago the Libs were $4 and now Labor had drifted to $1.60 it was time to lock in a profit.

  35. I am in Lindsay & have found that on the 3 occasions when a debate was organised between David Bradbury & Fiona Scott…Scott never showed. Her daddy owns Scotts Auto One in Penrith & she has been a checkout chick there for years…Daddy’s little girl

  36. [
    Radguy
    Posted Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 10:17 pm | Permalink
    Privi – Isn’t that non adherence to Pauli exclusion?
    ]
    The Pauli exclusion has to do with the characteristics of a single atom. I’m pretty sure the question was about two charge particles moving, and then determining if they’ve collided. The very act of them moving means they exist in probability wave, and therefore their physical location hasn’t collapsed to a single point (containing no momentum).

    We live in a strange ol’ universe, to be sure…

    But particle physics isn’t my main interest… much more interested in fractals and developing genetic algorithms. I just find there’s just a lot of overlap when the math starts getting to a certain point.

  37. While I think the broadband issue is important to some, and the ALP definitely has the more forward-thinking policy, I am not sure it will be a great vote changer except in Tasmania. I reckon the Libs’ desire to ditch the NBN has ensured that we hold onto Bass.

    Just a point on on-line polls. A great mate of mine, who unfortunately happens to to be a Lib member, has confirmed that they sometimes stack on-lines polls, hoping that they will help ‘influence’ opinion. As Phespos suggests, it really does not matter in the end.

    Finally, I said last night that we would hang onto Dawson and the events today with George C just confirms that in my mind. The good people of Mackay are not hicks and they will see through his prejudices.

  41. [victoria
    Posted Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 10:28 pm | Permalink
    Does anyone have an idea what the circulation for the OO is ?]

    A bit over 100,000 about 10% are given away for free in Hotels and airports.

  42. Well China is past having a committee of 100 bogans to decide what to do. I think a carbon trading scheme will give a better outcome that central planning however.

    1. Chinese bogans are called nongmin.

    2. The Chinese government is already feeling the effects of climate change, It is doing stuff but it doesnt want to sign up to any international agreements (it has to SAVE face).

  43. [
    victoria
    Posted Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 10:28 pm | Permalink
    Does anyone have an idea what the circulation for the OO is ?
    ]
    Shrinking.

  44. [Keating led Howard on PPM in 1996. Keating was ahead in the last five Newspolls before the election, by between 4 and 6 points. Yet at the election he was thrashed.]

    Exactly. You’d think that an election as recent as 2007 would hold some salience for them, but no. And especially given that the Oz’s trumpeting of PPM in 2007 as the measure to focus on at the expense of primary vote or 2PP has become internet legend.

  45. Lets compare the two Internet policies in a historical context Railways

    The ALP’s policy is an expensive Very Fast Train like the ones we see in Japan.

    The Liberal policy is a cheap single grade Stream Train like Puffing Billy

  46. Steve

    true,but the lack of any coherent strategy aside from dogwhistles,shows an utter contempt for democratic process and institutions

    todays presser by robbandsmith was an affront to anyone interested in debate

    🙁

  47. the dumb media will still be calling him the frontrunner tomorrow!

    Not so sure – the media seemed to have picked up on the “momentum” shift (if there was one). And also I don;t think last week the news that Abbott was in front did him much good – especially the obvious hubris” the Libs started to display.

  49. Yes I sit here looking out forlornly in Grayndler with my meaningless vote looking out on the comparatively marginal seat of Watson, just over the river.

  50. “”I do not have the same level of technical competence in this area that they have””

    And this guy wants people to vote for him as PM. Peak Speed Phony

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