Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

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  1. [You forgot the part about him becoming deputy leader under Turnbull oh and Dutton and Pyne losing their seats.]

    HA HA
    I’ll go along with that.
    I knew you detested Dutton…..but Pyne also? 😉

  4. Boundary Man @ 233

    [And the ALP lost in 2001 with 37.8, 2004 with 37.6. THANKS to Psephos for his site and figures.]

    The Greens did not poll 13% in those 2 elections as they are in this Newspoll and most other current opinion polls. In the 2004 election they polled 7% and in 2001 they polled 5% so their preference flow was not enough to affect the result in the ALP’s favour.

  5. no privi, other way around, Labor’s vote is fractionally softer than the Coalition (but nothing significant). You can also point to the fact that unlike the last “change” campaign (2007) the vote is a LOT softer and is almost the same as the 2004 campaign. This emphasises that a lot of people haven’t made up their minds and both have a chance to win/lose it from here.

  6. Have finally gotten off my bum (following the oh’s prodding) and sent in a couple of questions to QANDA. Will be interesting to se how many questions they get submitted this episode. I’d imagine the main parties will have their people hitting the keyboards big time.

  10. So what do the latest Nielsen, Newspoll and Galaxy have in common? Labor has gone up in all 3!

    Kinda makes Hartcher and Leigh Sales on last Friday’s Lateline look like the REAL suckers, don’t it?

    Now definitely… asleep….

  11. One thing that the Galaxy helps is the fact the the journalists will all be asking at Gillard and Abbott’s press conference “What do you make of the fact that 48 per cent of people think you (Abbott) are not yet ready to govern”?

  13. Apparently, this Newspoll registers a continuation of the momentum reversal seen in the Nielsen which Possum’s chart showed Labor gaining 1.6% from the previous Nielsen.

    Given so little change here in Gillard’s approval and Preferred PM numbers, I can’t discern that there’s a significant benefit from the Latham incident involved.

    Possum said after the Nielsen that he’d rather be sitting where Gillard is than Abbott, and for the moment, that’ll do just fine for me.

    BTW, as Pseph has pointed out, the betting markets lag behind the polls, and IASbet are still offering their highest return yet for Labor @ 1.60.

  16. Gus, it looks like that i dont have to come home to help out afterall. Jules is doing fine, more Singapore Slings for me then

  19. Boerwar

    Your observations regarding Rudd and colleagues are interesting. Today, I was reading a passage about Menzies before he became PM in 1939 and his first government 1939-41. It was largely about the mutual disdain that existed. It perfectly described Kevin Rudd if you substituted the name Rudd for Menzies. So seeing Menzies took 8 years, we can see the return of Rudd circa 2018.

  20. [Links?? to prevent spoiling it for others???]

    Can’t link Glen — I guess you’ll have to go see it a second time (I reckon that is a good idea anyway — there are too many undercurrents and philosophical segues in the movie to take it all in in one sitting) — it isn’t the obvious, that is all I can say.

  21. One thing that the Galaxy helps is the fact the the journalists will all be asking at Gillard and Abbott’s press conference “What do you make of the fact that 48 per cent of people think you (Abbott) are not yet ready to govern”?

    And the classic reply – The Australian People rarely get it wrong 🙂

  22. [The really interesting question is whether Malcolm Fraser will be at the Labor launch :)]

    Pseph, even though I see the smiley-face, you’re still pressing some nightmare buttons for those of us in The Old Fart Labor Brigade! 😉

  23. [Rudd did not have the numbers because he was on the nose electorally with very little time for Labor to pull the situation back]

    My memory is that ALP were up 52-48 in the week of the Gillard Coup. I think I’ve also seen Billbowe and Pseph note that Rudd was clawing back some lost popularity at the time he was deposed.

    I made this point at the time. It seems to me the ALP hierarchy does not have the stomach for a 50/50 fight. They preferred the chance to be popular at 55-45 with Gillard than to stick with Rudd through a 50/50 period.

    I also view this trait as characteristic of the ALP. The NSW ALP provides plenty of further evidence.

    The photos this week of Julia and Kevin will be remembered for some time.

  24. All tonight’s media reports say that Rudd was a big hit in Bonner today, so if he repeats this in other QLD electorates – he’ll be a hero on election day. 🙂

  25. @ 207

    what I experienced at the pub today is what i reckon most ordinary aussies feel

    abbott is a joke

    When voters get into the ballot box and actually have to make their mark, Abbott will not look so good to a lot of them, regardless of what they said to pollsters in the few weeks previously.

  26. The other interesting aspect of these polls is that the coalition is back to 42 , where they have largely been stuck all year.

  27. Psephos@ 387 I’m sure you dont really mean to look like joining in bagging Lee Rhiannon for not having at the age of 17 apparently sufficiently clearly disowned her parents crap views? Particularly when she should be bagged for so much more clearly on the record herself since? I dislike intensely the sacntimonious inner west greens such as her who are on the record as opposing freight rail track expansion and thus support continued semitrailer infestation of our streets but that is still a little way from supporting russian tanks down the same streets?

  28. Boundary Man @ 248

    [You can be a conservative and belive in climate change. Why are they incompatible ideas.]

    That isn’t the problem – the issue is that Tony Abbott is at best a Climate Change Sceptic, and he was put in power by the Minchinites who are avowedly CC Deniers. He will do nothing about addressing Climate Change – he opposed the ETS, and he is philosophically and constitutionally an unreconstructed reactionary conservative.

    If you believe that Climate Change is real and that action is required, then you cannot support the current Leader of the Coalition parties with your vote and remain true to that belief.

  30. [I dislike intensely the sacntimonious inner west greens such as her who are on the record as opposing freight rail track expansion and thus support continued semitrailer infestation of our streets but that is still a little way from supporting russian tanks down the same streets?]

    Those Russian tankers are big mothers, they can carry a lot of freight.

  31. Why isn’t the fact Costello wasn’t at the Lib launch receiving any airtime? That really surprises me. Keating taking a raincheck from Labor’s shindig is par for the course—it was either him or the Silver Bodgie, and he [PK] had previously done his duty & turned up in ’07 when they were fighting from Opposition.

    Costello being bitter about things is a story that regular MSM consumers just aren’t told much about, whether it be truth or speculation.

    Wow, Liberal folklore get treated with kid gloves, doesn’t it?

  34. Marrickville

    Why shouldn’t the Greens get the blowtorch. If they have pretensions of being in the big league, they need to be able to take as well as dish out. The Libs and ALP get the blowtorch – why shouldn’t the Greens?

  40. So, on current polling the Lib primary is firmly stuck where it was in 2007?

    This is good news. ALP won that one fairly convincingly.

    And this election i think they have been facing an effectivley VERY hostile media, whilst Abbott has been getting a pretty easy ride.

    So if the ALP primary is down its pretty much all gone to the Greens.

    Will be interesting to see if the ALP actually get a better preference flow this year (in % terms) from the Greens.

  41. As a medium term lurker I feel it is time I made a contibution.

    Possum’s brilliant analysis in 2007 intoduced me to this format and I am grateful for his efforts.

    As a rusted on supporter since I was asked to participate in Vietnam without even being allowed to vote or have a legal beer I have been concerned we could be heading for a closer result than originally anticipated.

    This Newspoll gives a fair degree of comfort but it isn’t over yet. The trend line has levelled out or may have come back some. I think the 4th estate will go after the conservatives from this point. It is only right that JG be tested and I think Latham (all families have a mad dog somewhere) has done us a favour as JG had her personal space invaded and she handled it very well. She is also looking more confident and prime ministerial.

    It may seem that the “media” has been giving JG a tough time and I think so too but I am certain that Abbott will be scrutinised more from now on. I think the next period will be very interesting as I don’t think he can handle pressure very well.

    I think we will end up in the new house with similar, maybe better numbers than the old.

    Thanks everyone for your contibutions – and keep the faith.

  42. [jolly good. Now time for bed.]

    Sounds like an excellent idea. Night all — blood pressure is back to normal tonight — will sleep well.

  43. [when I get depressed by what I read here, I just stay away for a day or two ….]

    I just did that, I went skiing for three days, haven’t posted since Thursday last

    stopped for petrol in Bright on the way back today and saw the Neilson result, all seemed good, but now there is Newspoll and galaxy and …oh poo….I’m going to bed

  44. [All tonight’s media reports say that Rudd was a big hit in Bonner today]

    Having caught a fairly long segment of this on one of the channels, it was a real pleasure seeing Kevin genuinely enjoying himself. Reminded me a bit of meeting Hawkie lending a charismatic hand to our local candidate in the shopping centre during the ’04 campaign.

  45. BBS

    Marrickville

    Why shouldn’t the Greens get the blowtorch.

    Go right ahead, there mission and policies are on the web. They are the most progressive – prove me wrong.

  47. Why isn’t the fact Costello wasn’t at the Lib launch receiving any airtime?

    Well the sight of Cossie having a chunder at the prospect of abbott even getting close to being PM is hardly suitable for family viewing on the 6 pm news.

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