Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

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  2. One day Bob Brown might have to face the uncomfortable truth about the political background of some Greens candidates. A lot of attention gets paid to what Tony Abbott said when he was in 21 or 22. Lee Rhiannon should be asked if she still stands by her earlier views that the Russians and others were right to send tanks in to crush the Prague Spring of 1968.

  3. You can be a conservative and belive in climate change. Why are they incompatible ideas.

    One is a belief system, the other a scientific theory/fact.

    Richard Nixon believed in climate change as does Margaret Thatcher both quintessential conservatives.

  5. [Let’s see. How many illegals flew into Australia and are still in Australia? Say 100,000. ]

    I was told recently by a former member of the RRT that about 7000 people a year enter Australia legally by air and then claim refugee status. They are nearly all Chinese, who enter either as students or tourists. About two-thirds of them eventually get to stay, because we are reluctant to deport people to China even if we think their stories are bogus.

  7. Nickws

    back in 2007 the rantings of one glen milne ,lead some here to parody him in the run up to the election

    Bushfire bill was , is and always shall be the parodista of PB

  8. I won’t be surprised if Phoney jumps aboard the “Ban the burka” train, or promises the reintroduction of capital punishment – he is a creature of Alan Jones and the other nasty conservative figures in the media.

  10. [Was Howard at the launch?]

    Howard was, Costello not, apparently.

    One thing I’ve noticed with Howard (both at the Chinese inner and today) he doesn’t look Abbott in the eye. He looks past his shoulder as he speaks to him.

    I’m sure, if he was Labor, they’d have had all the body language experts out in droves!

  11. Scarpat, yes you are right there is often commentary from Dennis Shanahan before any details. But usually Newspoll comes out on Tuesday so I am not sure he does make the commentary when it comes out on Monday.

  14. [ Lee Rhiannon should be asked if she still stands by her earlier views that the Russians and others were right to send tanks in to crush the Prague Spring of 1968. ]

    Heavens, she gets asked this about once a week, doesn’t she? And keeps reminding people that she marched in opposition to the invasion at the time, IIRC.

  15. [Good on you @laurieoakes. Mark Latham is just “posing as a journalist”, and brings discredit on Nine network. http://colv.in/9uNHPX%5D
    http://twitter.com/Colvinius

    Love the way some of these journos are now upset with Latham degrading their profession when yesterday he was reported and tweeted widely as the flavour of the day.

    They need to take a look at themselves as well I think. Most of us think they’re doing just as good a job as Latham!

  17. [promises the reintroduction of capital punishment]

    My theory is he is keeping that under his sleeve for a DD trigger, lest he wins government and the Greens win BoP

  21. [check your ‘Totem’ to ensure you’re not dreaming *only those who have seen Inception will get this*.]

    Did you stay till the very end of the credits, Glen, if not, you missed out on something.

  22. Another prediction: the Liberals drag out the mother of one of those 4 unfortunate blokes who got killed – the insulation installers – for a very tacky TV ad, that will be trumpeted by Abbott and Greg Hunt.

  23. Mark Latham couldn’t get a job at a KFC without everybody quitting in disgust. He’s that kind of guy.

    Brought it on himself.

  25. I always thought Labor would mention AWB pre election.

    I think that’s a pretty much dead issue, especially in terms of public conciousness

  28. [I am sure John Howard made eye contact today with Tony Abbott. Janette definitely did]

    Are you sure she was looking at his eyes?

    I thought she was looking further south, maybe in the smugglers area….

  33. [Did you stay till the very end of the credits, Glen, if not, you missed out on something.]

    I did stay on but I guess not to the ultimate ending.

    Links?? to prevent spoiling it for others???

  34. [Do you know if Gough is well enough to make Labor’s launch ?]

    Alas, he’s not well enough.
    The only former PMs attending will be Hawke and Rudd.

  35. Please excuse my identical twin brother, Bushfire Bob. He obtained my password tonite and logged on under my username. His opinions are not necessarily those of the family, except for Aunty Mary who has always been the conspiracy theorist of the family. I believe she made some posts, again under my name, about a month ago re. Newspoll. For that I sincerely apologize. I will be more careful with my p/w in future.

    Good night (even if it is a fake Newspoll I will sleep well… attic-suckers and roofers start tomorrow 7.30am)

  36. Abbotts personal performance ratings have gone down 3 points and Julias have gone up 2 points so that says to me that people are seeing through the negative crap Abbott has been spinning.

    cheers

  37. ‘Gillard’s knifing of Rudd…’

    tsk tsk. My advice is don’t bother about trying to become a professional historian.
    The reality is that Rudd resigned. Why did he resign?

    Rudd resigned because he did not have the numbers. Why did Rudd not have the numbers?

    Rudd did not have the numbers because he was on the nose electorally with very little time for Labor to pull the situation back. There was no indication from Rudd that he was in any sort of a hurry to address the policy issues that were killing off the Labor Government.

    Rudd also did not have the numbers because hardly anyone wanted to work with him. Actually, it was the other way around. Rudd did not appear to want to work with most of his colleagues. Naturally, there was considerable resentment about that.

    Rudd had the dead man walking choice: go for the count and get humiliated, or resign.

    Rudd resigned.

  38. 48 per cent have ‘major reservations’ about Abbott’s readiness for the job. The negative ALP ads could be onto a winner.

  39. [And keeps reminding people that she marched in opposition to the invasion at the time, IIRC.]

    Really? She was 17 at the time, and her parents were stalwart defenders of the invasion within the CPA and publicly. Maybe she defied both her parents and the party which she’d grown up in and opposed the invasion, but I’d like to see some evidence.

  40. [One thing I’ve noticed with Howard (both at the Chinese inner and today) he doesn’t look Abbott in the eye.]

    He actually did – they gave each other a big bear hug.

    I’m more interested in how Abbott responded to his real father: definate eye contact avoidance, and a mere handshake. No bear hug there.

    what gives?

  41. We are, after all, a psephological site are we not?

    http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/08/08/1225902/756439-aus-news-file-newspoll-080810.pdf

    Another interesting point on the polling figures is the questions related to ‘commitment’ to voting. There should be a lot of concerns there with the conservatives. The committed are just about spot-on the same, but the next four levels down (probably, maybe, don’t think so, who knows) spell a pretty sorry story for the conservatives.

    The way I read it too, that the 2nd line is actually an opposite representation of line three and four. In it is better to have a higher number in the second line, and a lower number in the third and fourth.

    The total difference in those values amounts to seven points of ‘softness’ in the liberal vote.

  48. People might be convinced that Abbott is ready to govern for 3 months – but 3 years? Need to check if they think John Howard is ready to govern for the rest of the time.

  50. Interesting that Galaxy and Newspoll have exactly the same primary votes and use 2007 preference flows. However Newspoll rounded Labor up and Galaxy rounded down.

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