Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor

UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.

UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,115 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48, Galaxy: 51-49 – to Labor”

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  2. [reens ACT Senate candidate Lin Hatfield Dodds has a background as an activist for the Uniting Church of Australia. ]

    The UC consists of about 500 pensioners in genteel suburbs. The serious Christian vote in Australia is the Catholics and the Evangelicals (which includes the NSW Anglicans). The former is heavily Labor, the latter heavily Liberal.

  3. PS I AM EATING THE TOM PIPER MINI-SAUAGE & VEG NOT THE TWO DOGS SICK CAT AND WIFE THEY GET EATEN LAST ONLY IN EMERGENCYS JUST TO CLARIFY BB

  6. [Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott are set to take part in a town hall-style public forum this Wednesday.

    A group of 200 voters chosen by a polling company will question each leader for about an hour at the Rooty Hill RSL in western Sydney.]

    On ABC online home page.

    Don’t forget Swannie will bust Joe’s balloon tomorrow at the NPC at 12.30 pm

  7. [they will be made up later by Tony and John WH.]

    IIRC Tone said today that he would unveil his economic plan once voters had elected him and he’d been in office for 12mths.

    This is extraordinarily arrogant. Who would fall for this?!

  10. Barbeque Bill

    this Newspoll is BETWEEN 51/49 and 52/48 (with fractions favoring later) , subject 2 MoE

    so if was to drop to 51/49 , no surprise , but I expect it to hold , prob improve a point

  13. Indeed, but that bottles them up in the 20% no-religion demographic.

    That’s true but measures of religiosity are steadily declining.

    If you’re aiming to take power in 30 years, this might work… but I’m not sure even the greens think that long-term.

  14. [Gillard’s knifing of Kevin Rudd was of a different order of magnitude to the changing of leader in the liberal party]

    A very convenient interpretation but it’s also very shallow. Both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott are nothing more than leaders of political parties who must not only keep the people on side, but elected members of their own parties. The people of Australia elect members of political parties to the Parliament and we do not have a presidential system of government.

  19. [Why should I? Neither Tony’s experiences or Malcolm’s are a relevant comparison.

    Nelson and turnbull had never stood for Prime Minster.]

    Of course they were standing for Prime Minister. They just never made it to the election.

  24. Gillard’s knifing of Kevin Rudd was of a different order of magnitude to the changing of leader in the liberal party

    I disagree. That’s the nature of our political system. It’s no different to when Hawke did it, or when Keating did it.

    The problem is, conservative leaders get drunk with power and never change leaders. They have to be dragged out kicking and screaming.

  26. Good modern example of why all the stuff about Labor needing a primary of 40+ to win this election is nonsense: Bass 2007

    Lib 43.5%
    Labor 37.2%

    Labor trailed by 6.3% on primaries yet won this seat with 1.0% to spare because the Green prefs flowed to them at a ratio of 74:26.

    Now, yes, that seat had a very high Greens vote (15.3%). But the very reason Labor’s primary is currently being polled nationwide at only around 38 is that the polls are also putting the Greens at 12s and 13s. In the grossly unlikely case that they poll that much at the election, then there will be many seats Labor can win from behind on Green prefs a la Bass. In the far more likely case that they don’t poll that much, then a couple of points or so will very likely return to Labor, pushing their primary up to around 40 anyway. So while Labor would be much more comfortable polling primaries with a 4 in front of it, a high 30s primary in polling at the moment is no basis for great alarm.

  27. For those complaining that the Oz has not published the latest Newspoll results on their website.

    They never publish Newspolls until the next days edition goes on line about 3am.

    Nielsen comes out earlier as the next day Fairfax editions come on line about midnight.

  28. OK, signing out, but no relaxing down there at campaign HQ. I want to see a 3 on the end of that 5! 🙂

    Two thoughts for this week:

    1. economy economy economy
    2. Remember those primaries: LNP same as 2007, ALP down 5, GRN up 5. (Reflect on this when considering next rightward lurch – is it *in fact* pragmatic?).

  30. [Don’t forget Swannie will bust Joe’s balloon tomorrow at the NPC at 12.30 pm]

    I’ll be in abig tin bird going to the land that time forgot,but labor remembered

  31. ephos
    Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    “I think BB has forgotten to take his pills.”

    perhaps his keybord is stuck on caps lock , happened to me once

  32. Front Row Centre Adam.

    Oh and Bludgers on the off chance we wake up to an Abbott/Truss administration on August 21st, be sure to check your ‘Totem’ to ensure you’re not dreaming *only those who have seen Inception will get this*.

  34. Let’s see. How many illegals flew into Australia and are still in Australia? Say 100,000. Let’s say that one in two is being ‘sheltered’ by someone else. You know, they are living in the same dwelling.

    That’s fifty thousand people Abbott’s policies will put into jail under new mandatory sentencing laws. I have no idea about the real numbers involved but it does have a whiff of policy on the run. Oh well, another day, no doubt, another policy position.

  35. [Is it true the smirk wasn’t at the launch?]

    Yes. But he’s apparently campaigning in Higgins this week, so supposedly nobody is reading too much into his absence today.

    Or something like that…..

  37. [Oh and Bludgers on the off chance we wake up to an Abbott/Truss administration on August 21st]

    I would know something is foul if they were in government before the election ended.

  39. I think BB has forgotten to take his pills.

    PILLS WHAT PILLS I HAVE GREEN ONES BROWN ONES AND EVEN THOSE ONES WITH CLEAR OUTSIDES AND HUNDREDS AND THOUSANDS INSIDE WHY ELSE DO YOUSE THINK I GOT 32 GALLONS OF WATER TO DRINK NO TO WASH DOWN THE TABLETS I ALSO HAVE DRIED SEAWEED IN CASE THE PILLS RUN OUT NO FLIES ON ME SUCKERS READY FOR ABBOTWORLD HERE WE ARE ARMED AS WELL SO BE CAREFUL

  42. Kevin Bonham

    quite so , although Labor will be more comfort at 40% plus and Greens down by same

    BTW no one seems to see this Newspoll is not far off 51/49

  43. [They never publish Newspolls until the next days edition goes on line about 3am.]

    BBS, except when they are accompanied by commentary from Dennis. Then it is around 10:30 Sydney time.

  45. That’s fifty thousand people Abbott’s policies will put into jail under new mandatory sentencing laws. I have no idea about the real numbers involved but it does have a whiff of policy on the run. Oh well, another day, no doubt, another policy position.

    Not a ‘position’. A ‘clarification’.

  46. They never publish Newspolls until the next days edition goes on line about 3am.

    I’ve quite often seen the headline results published on the Australian the night before, or at least Shanahan giving us a teaser.

    I actually don’t expect anything is out of place here, the results will be published tomorow as usual and will get the full media attention they deserve.

  47. [Yes. But he’s apparently campaigning in Higgins this week, so supposedly nobody is reading too much into his absence today.]

    Yes, because if Costello is not there to campaign 24/7 Labor might have a come from behind victory.

  48. I would be amazed if abbott was not already aware of this latest poll before his *Big Day Out* in Brizzy 🙂

    Pity it didn’t chock him.

  49. Libs seemed to have a very self satisfied crowd at their launch – and having John Howard as their hero is spot on. Bring back Workchoices. Bring back serfdom for the plebs!

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