UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.
GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.
UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.
Jack,
If you’re a betting person, get on Labor now.
Full Results:
The fact that all during the 2007 Campaign Labor were ahead 55-45 with one dip to 53-47 showed that election was unwinable for Unca.
This one is still a line ball of course incumbency helps and the margin is quite high 17 or so seats.
I think we’re going to see some interesting results on election night regardless of the outcome.
Not everyone follows the how to vote card… And when has Labor won a federal election with a primary below 39/38? 1990 was probably the only time and that was damn close.
[Still won’t affect result as much as marginals which are still looking pale.]
This doesn’t mean anything. If Labor’s vote is up nationally, there’s no reason to believe the marginals will have missed out.
I’ve just seen the Hewson-Costello ad. It’s a killer. Costello’s smart mouth really is the gift that goes on giving. He just can’t resist the smart one-liner.
Finns
Have you read that book about Dejima yet?
I have been lurking here so long I am wondering if I’m crazy. This poll feels like a big relief and has spurred me to type something. Certainly it’s something positive in what seems like a tirade of negativity. I think Tone has been showing some serious signs of hubris this week. It’s hard to make a claim to be a “grown up” alternative while making childish jokes about texting ex’s and soap operas.
Let’s not succumb to hubris. This isn’t won yet. Still plenty more we can do.
*) Donate to the Australian Labor Party’s election campaign fund. Phone (02) 6120 0800
*) Download campaign pamphlets, get copies printed and letterbox your neighbourhood.
http://alp.org.au/get-involved/letterbox/
*) Contact the ACTU to donate, and ask them to send Anti-WorkChoices pamphlets to deliver.
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/default.aspx
Drop some in letterboxes as you take the dog for a walk… 🙂
spur212
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 10:26 pm | Permalink
“A lot of people are still a bit worried about the 39% primary vote. ”
is 2007 level effective , although a 4 would make me better seeing States all ovr place
[I’m a 150kg man!]
You are indeed BigBob
All the movements are within the MoE. Don’t get too excited.
Compass has a special next week
“faith in politics”
well worth alook
Remember those billboards that the ALP put up in 2007 that had a picture of Howard and a quote saying “Working families in Australia have never been better off”…?
What about a couple of Abbott clangers done in the same style. No need to editorialise, the voter can work out the message for themselves…
ephos
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 10:30 pm | Permalink
“I’ve just seen the Hewson-Costello ad. It’s a killer. Costello’s smart mouth really is the gift that goes on giving. He just can’t resist the smart one-liner.”
that was context (that great Add) of an hr ago about having a Prof Stigler words TV add as a complementary Add
I had said that the polls were soft.
If Labor keeps hammering:
1) on the economy
2) the differences between the two parties
3) Abbott’s flip flops purely because of the election
4) why the Libs did not act when last in government,
and they present a united team with Rudd at the forefront, Labor could win 80+ seats.
Glen,
That’s the sort of polling you need for a change of government, and Abbot hasn’t managed to consistently get those sorts of numbers.
I’ve said my view before, the Coalition has to win more weeks of the campaign than the ALP.
Time is running out, but I make it 2:1 now with 2 to go – and the Coalition launch just hasn’t filled me with trepidation that Abbott has picked the mood of the nation.
It really was a continuation of the “you didn’t get it right last time, now you can correct it” dummy spit the Coalition has had for the past 3 years.
BB – Shamahan was on SkyNews today and wasn’t that impressed by Tone’s campaign laurnch
[I think we’re going to see some interesting results on election night regardless of the outcome.]
Glen, and yes, cricket is a funny game…
Bushie
time for you to turn out a revision of your milney notes thingy updated to a shamma’s style
remember the shuffling of the notes
😉
Bushie
time for you to turn out a revision of your milney notes thingy updated to a shamma’s style
remember the shuffling of the notes
😉
[when has Labor won a federal election with a primary below 39/38? 1990 was probably the only time and that was damn close.]
A party can win an election under preferential voting with 2% of the primary vote, provided there are 98 other parties and they all poll 1% and preference the party with 2%. Of course that isn’t likely, but it’s perfectly imaginable that in a future election Labor could poll 30% and the Greens 25%. Provided preferences flow tightly, Labor would win.
Many thanks Ghost.
[The leaked poll]
See the date at the top? 30.03.08
Even if this poll is an outlier it will do the job of killing off the Tory campaign launch nicely.
While, like with the others that had us down, I will take this with its due grain of salt. It confirms a probable slight trend back to the government. Either way, it’ll look good in the headlines.
Either way, we desperately needed this.
During the last campaign I was a big fan of Possum… (I think I offered him my daughter in marriage at one point)… and I recall a big call he made about poll volatility after major events. Stuff like leaders being deposed and elections being called tends to knock the trend line around, and we see polls for two or three weeks that oscillate back and forth, before they settle down again and the trend re-emerges. I haven’t seen anyone talking about that this time around, but of course we had two disruptive events within weeks, and in short time the polls went (distressingly) haywire. Now perhaps we are seeing the settling phase, and the long term business as usual 59-42 trend is re-establishing.
Such thoughts keep me calm, anyway.
I am waiting for Pebble’s predictions as promised on previous thread
Abbott and the Libs were behaving today like they’d already won, so a poll like this might cause them some panic.
Sure a primary vote of 39% is still too low for Labor, but at least morale at Labor HQ will be revived, and if Rudd is deployed in the right places in QLD over the next week – that’ll help too.
I hope Julia has a few more tricks up her sleeve to be unveiled.
how come leftwing?
Shouldnt the Tories get a bounce after the campaign launch not before?
Isnt that what they are for?
Oh and GhostWhoVotes, you are a god!
Psephos the idea of a party polling 30% and winning has already occurred and is not uncommon mostly in rural seats
Shanas is worried about hubris.
[With Labor’s divisions eroding its record and unity there is little room for the Government to come back at Abbott short of claiming he’s assuming he’s going to win.]
I don’t think it was smart for Lib to leak that very dodgy internal polling about Qld.
The very least it does is ensure Labor aren’t painted as out of the game already.
Looks like Shanna, by not having a caver article on NewsPoll on the Sunday night, has the same intestinal fortitude as the unhinged one.
Latham ‘full of bile’ says Channel Nine journalist Laurie Oakes
* From: AAP
* August 08, 2010 7:41PM
NINE’S political editor, Laurie Oakes, says former Labor leader-turned-journalist Mark Latham is full of bile and could be damaging to the network’s reputation.
Mr Oakes said the network was right to apologise to Prime Minister Julia Gillard over the “ugly incident” with Mr Latham, who is producing a segment for its 60 Minutes program.
“Nine CEO David Gyngell was right to say Mark Latham crossed the line and to apologise,” Mr Oakes said.
“The trouble is that I am not sure Mark Latham knows where the line is.
“He’s not a journalist; he’s still full of bile and settling old scores. I don’t really think it does 60 Minutes or the network much of a favour really to have him posing as a journalist.”
When asked how damaging Mr Latham was for Labor during the election campaign, Mr Oakes said he was “more concerned with how damaging he is for the Nine Network”.
Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.
End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.
make your own news service on igoogle
The confrontation occurred as Ms Gillard was doing the rounds and meeting patrons at Brisbane’s Ekka show yesterday.
Mr Latham asked why Labor had complained to the network about his presence.
A smiling Ms Gillard responded: “I don’t know anything about that, Mark. If you want to work for Channel Nine, that’s a matter for you.”
Mr Latham then suggested his one-time Labor ally speak out against former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd for trying to sabotage her campaign.
“Have a dig at him,” he told her.
But Ms Gillard merely laughed and wished him well with his journalistic endeavours.
Hours later Mr Gyngell issued a statement saying he had personally apologised to Ms Gillard on behalf of the network, saying Mr Latham’s conduct was inappropriate.
“I’m all for freedom of speech and robust scrutiny of our public figures, but my strong view of today’s exchange is that it crossed the line,” he said in a statement.
“The Prime Minister of Australia, whomever that might be and whatever their political stripe, deserves to be treated with a due level of respect.
“I think that was missing today.”
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/features/federal-election/latham-full-of-bile-says-channel-nine-journalist-laurie-oakes/story-fn5a6dkp-1225902733957#ixzz0w18t0Zjb
Latham lost an election for Labor and it looks like he is also losing an election for the Libs. At least he is fair. Jules should make him the Ambassador to Timbukto
[Even if this poll is an outlier it will do the job of killing off the Tory campaign launch nicely.]
Yes, the data would have been largely collected before the campaign launch but the results are published after the launch
Glen is correct to point out that the Liberals should get a bounce out of the campaign laurnch but I suspect it will only be a few points and due to the blandness of the speech this time around the bounce will be small.
Mark Reilly on Channel 7 wasn’t that impressed with Abbott either, called him “shifty”.
psephos
You are being a bit unbelievable with your theoretical examples of the preferential voting system. You KNOW that the level of 1st preferences is important because of leakage – and such a great term too it is. No matter one possible tight outcome, the reality is different.
Finns,
Nauru might be the modern day equivalent after the election.
This is a Tory government at work
[BRITISH Prime Minister David Cameron has said the Government’s vast spending cuts will see the public lose “some things that we genuinely value” amid reports free milk for under-fives could be scrapped.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/echoes-of-thatcher-as-uk-pm-david-cameron-considers-ditching-free-milk-for-kids/story-fn3dxity-1225902763765
I’m sure the silver service at Westminster will continue.
[I don’t think it was smart for Lib to leak that very dodgy internal polling about Qld.]
It was a clear bluff. They played the confidence card too hard.
[Abbott within striking distance]
Of course he is. Oppositions are nearly always within striking distance. The last federal election in which one side or the other clearly had no hope at all of winning was in 1975. The real question is, can Abbott really close the gap in the last 12 days, given the historical tendency of a drift back to the government in the last week, and the fact that Labor has deeper pockets and is clearly intending a last-week blitz?
Yeah, that is true but the post script for every news piece tomorrow about Abbotts campaign launch will be that he’s numbers have slipped.
The Costello adds really do cut through
stef
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 10:31 pm | Permalink
“I have been lurking here so long I am wondering if I’m crazy. This poll feels like a big relief and has spurred me to type something….”
Welcome stef , there is lots of Labor ladies here
Some nervous nelly laborites here , but econamy is fine & w/c toxic so no need to worry
[See the date at the top? 30.03.08]
Don’t get scared folks — that must mean something other than date because the table dates are correct.
Frightened myself for a minute.