UPDATE Delightfully, Galaxy has now come good with an identical set of primary vote figures to Newspoll. They have nonetheless come to a 51-49 two-party split rather than the 52-48 from Newspoll, which can only have resulted from their calculation landing a fraction either side of 51.5-48.5. The 1700 sample from Newspoll and the 800 (I presume) sample from Galaxy can be combined to achieve a super-sample of 2500 and an unusually low margin of error of 2 per cent. Galaxy also finds “only 43 per cent of voters believe he is up to the top job and 48 per cent have major reservations”, suggesting Labor’s late campaign attack ads might find a receptive audience.
GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll gives Labor a morale-boosting 52-48 two-party lead from primary votes of 38 per cent for Labor, 42 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Julia Gillard is up a point on both approval and disapproval, to 42 per cent and 40 per cent, while Tony Abbott has gone backwards: approval down three to 41 per cent, disapproval up three to 41-49. Preferred prime minister is essentially unchanged, Gillard and Abbott both down one to 49 per cent and 34 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full Newspoll report here. A question of strength of voting intention finds no distinction between the two parties, contrary to earlier polls which found the Coalition vote slightly firmer. Labor’s lead as party expected to win has narrowed over a week from 56-23 to 50-26.
UPDATE 2: The Canberra Times reports a survey conducted for the Greens credited to YourSource (the panel used by Essential Research) has the Senate vote in the Australian Capital Territory at 36 per cent for Labor (down 5 per cent on the election), 30 per cent for the Coalition (down 4 per cent) and 26 per cent for the Greens (up 4.5 per cent). If accurate, the Greens would probably just fall short of taking the second seat from Liberal Senator Gary Humphries.
[or more likely just random statistical noise within the margin of error.]
Good point James.
ALP primary vote still a bit low for my liking. But jeepers, this Newspoll will be a relief for team Labor!
I agree entirely. The Tory primary is just as bad as Labors. The Tories got 43 is 2007.
ItstheVibe – If we are 100 points down then we are worst than my beloved Bombers.
Just too painful to watch
itsthevibe
We are not getting arrogant. Just a little happy after a depressing week.
Latham is worth minus 3% to who-over he supports 😉
George Pell just carved off a lump of the Greens vote for Labor. Thanks, George.
Thanks to the return of the Ruddster.
Now the question is whether Phony will want to debate Julia
[Must wait for more polls to see if Labor is really improving.]
Indeed, this could well be a rogue.
[Better PM is 49-34 Gillard
Gillard satisfaction 43/41
Abbott 41/49]
Isn’t that a 7-point drop in Abbott’s PPM rating? And a rather significant turnaround in net satisfaction ratings too if I’m recalling the previous ones correctly.
Almost too good to be true… but hey, still a joy to behold. 😀
Hang on. This newspoll isn’t even at the Oz homepage.
Where is Madame Star?
[or more likely just random statistical noise within the margin of error.]
You’re right. It is within the MOE of the last 50-50 Newspoll.
Abbotts albatross is his negative approval/disapproval
he has never been positive
case closed
[Labor to win Now oat 10.45 pm 21/8 Julia will make victory sppech]
Hubris
Follow the advice of the vibe.
It’s never a good look to say it’s all over 2 weeks out.
SO is theALP primary 38 or 39? you tweeted it was 39
James J @ 35,
Possibly, but the momentum is not all the Coalition’s way now.
Abbott needed to build a solid lead by now.
He’s only managed 1 (or was it 2?) polls showing a lead.
The other’s have been 50:50 or better for the ALP.
The Coalition launch only makes sense for someone significantly ahead, it was not a launch to drag the uncommitteds over.
Abbott has gambled that he would have the lead by now – and he mainfestly does not.
If the ALP can force the message this week and have a good launch, they will have the run into the finish.
So last weeks Essential Poll was on the money ?
where did the 4 point drop in the tory vote go, to the undecideds?
Glen about now is thinking back to the 2007 bull butter polls and the coming narrowing.
[Labor need 41/2
Tories need 44/5 ]
That is supposing teh Green primaries go down Glen. If they stay at 13 (which I personally doubt, but if the do) then those higher numbers for ALP or Tory is unreachable.
Don’t celebrate now.
Still two weeks to go.
I know I know, being overly cautious.
🙂
[The minute Latham steps into the election frame, things begin to change. ]
Yeah, I want more of Latham. Another bout of in-your-face nastiness from him should see the Labor PV rise another 2%.
Remember Abbott’s wonderful comments “no means no’ emphasised four times for good measure.
[He’s only managed 1 (or was it 2?) polls showing a lead.]
2.
Yes it is. Its at the top of their election 2010 section.
Is this the narrowing? Are the bookies on the money?
Join my It’s the Same Labor who… campaign.
Complete this sentence for the Coalition and tweet it. eg It’s the Same Labor whose stimulus saved us from recession and 10% unemployment.
Rogue or not, Newspoll does survey the largest number (1700+) so MOE is smaller than ACN.
Tom Hawkins.
Are you referring to when Latham starting digging into Rudd?
Actually, a few more if you count ones from earlier in the year (couple of Morgans, 3 Nielsons and a Newspoll).
It’s the widening.
Well done ALP! We still have a contest perhaps?
Still won’t affect result as much as marginals which are still looking pale.
It does appear VIC & SA strong for ALP and Tasmania won’t be shifted easily.
QLD & NSW will decimate ALP, WA may cough +1, NT +1
Greens vote up a little. Normally, these are heading southward slightly by now. WOuld imagine perhaps a 10% nationwide on primaries for Green. Makes no difference here, still good for ALP.
Do Newspoll do state by state breakdowns?
bascially due to the high Green vote I think the ALP will only need to reach 40% and will be able to win unless the Liberal/Nats can improve their position to around the 45% mark.
This election is still very very close.
I don’t understand this stuff about the primary vote. Seats are decided on the 2-party vote. If we poll 26% and a party polling 25% gives us all their preferences, we win the seat.
GG
[George Pell just carved off a lump of the Greens vote for Labor. Thanks, George.]
Somehow I guess that Greens voters aren’t big fans of Pell. It’s a plus for the Greens to have someone as odious as Pell ranting against them.
Sometimes Newspoll does
I felt so lousey I went to bed on page 50 last thread – tossed and turned so thought I’d better make myself more miserable and look at newspoll.
Wow! is this for real even with low PV! I feel instantly better for Labor.
DI: rang OH earlier and said Mark Riley was absolutely scathing about Ch9, Latham and Abbott’s lack of policy and platitudes. Things are looking up guys.
A lot of people are still a bit worried about the 39% primary vote.
Let’s just say, that at least it’s going the right direction and with the Liberal Party having peaked a little prematurely, it definitely could get much better within the next 2 weeks.
ltep,
I’m only referring to those in the campaign.
At this point, I’d rather be in Gillard’s shoes than Abbott’s – and I’m a 150kg man!
There she is.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs
Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, August 8, 2010 at 10:11 pm | Permalink
“That Neilsen had to be a dodgy.”
GG , said so then , but this Site was such a morgue that nite not believing in th lite
Labor has been easing out on Betfair all evening with decent volumes at $1.73 and $1.75. Election betting markets tend to change quite a bit just before polls are released to the public (due to those with knowledge having a bet) so it makes me wonder how they could ease in light of a 52-48 result to the government. Be interesting to see what the numbers are tomorrow.
Mick – If the Liberals were smashing the ALP in Queensland then why was the poll in Dawson so close. I would have and still expect that seat to go very strongly to the Liberals but not according to the poll
Long time browser, first time poster.
It has been a bleak few weeks for the ALP, but this is great news. Listening to the ALP narrative today, if they can get that message through on the economy and jobs, they should get home.
Anna Bligh ran a very good last week of the state election with the “Jobs not Cuts” tour where she visited 30 seats in 3 days which seemed to do the trick. They should do the same federally.
Diog, you are still an iDIOt
Diogs,
The rotted on Greens maybe. They hate everyone.
However, the fluctuators may come back.
link pls jack!
Getting back the to Labor ad. Negative? Well yes, but it brought back memories of the 2007 Liberal scare ads about ‘wall to wall’ Labor governements; and ‘union bosses’. And those ads did the trick to scare the undecided punters back to the coalition
So it is a bit of a back hand compliment to say this Labor attack ad is tops because it is using a tried and true Liberal ‘style’
The change is actually not far off that reported by Neilsen this week (which was actually a rise of 1.6% for Labor 2PP, from 47.78 to 49.4 2PP, but seemed smaller because of rounding).
Looks as if Neilsen and Newspoll are tracking pretty close to each other in terms of the magnitude and direction of the change, but with Neilsen’s base a little lower than Newspoll’s
The leaked poll
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://resources.news.com.au/files/2010/08/08/1225902/756439-aus-news-file-newspoll-080810.pdf&pli=1