We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.
UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.
I would love to see a poll with the following questions.
Would you prefer Julia Gillard –
a) to be an atheist
b) to be a Catholic
c) to be a Protestant
d) to be an Evangelical Christian
e) to be of Islamic faith
I wonder how many of that 24% also believe the world is ~10,000 years old. (Despite Bronwyn Bishop being proof to the contrary)
Dee,
I refuse ever to read Murdoch’s “Daily Telegraph” or “Australian” even when it’s the only free paper available at my regular coffee shops.
Until a fortnight ago when ABC-TV 24 launched, I infrequently watched SKY News for live press conferences etc, but not now, not ever again.
Pebbles
Classic!
Another issue – our PV on this poll is 39% – better than other recent polls. Need to get it to 40; the LNP will be no more than 43 on election day. If that is the figure, we should win comfortably.
[I would love to see a poll with the following questions.
Would you prefer Julia Gillard –
a) to be an atheist
b) to be a Catholic
c) to be a Protestant
d) to be an Evangelical Christian
e) to be of Islamic faith]
Any poll that doesn’t include “to be a scientologist” is not worth our time.
[I’d really like to sue News Ltd for ongoing and systematic misrepresentation of the truth/lying about events by their deliberate omissions of facts from their reports causing people to make decisions they might otherwise not make — you know, the kind of fraud that finance companies can be charged with because omission of facts can lead to them making unwise decsions.
Probably a few 100 million/billion to start with. Hit Rupert where it hurts. And also hit the individual journalists so the can find their social consciences.]
jenauthor – I’m sharing your dream.
I reckon once the Rudd’s return effect kicks in, we will see some luck back on our side in QLD.
I wonder how many care Abbott is a religious nutter, I but that number is higher than the number that care if JG is an adult that does or doesn’t believes in imaginary friends.
jen
You are going to get in trouble with “fair comment” and showing damages.
oh dear. the negative spin on the abc 7pm news..
Just got home from work, great to see this exciting dialogue going on, at work they won’t discuss politics.
I think the internet filter is a bipartisan issue, I know the Liberals have come out and said they are against it, but Julia put it on the backburner too, more or less to eventually ditch it I think, thank heavens for common sense.
BB@87:
[ According to Wikipedia (examining Australian census statistics) 29.9% of Australians declared they had either “No Religion” or did not answer the census question on religion.
That leaves 70.1% who claim to have religious beliefs (includes all religions).]
I think that reflects the worry/cynicism by the general population that the census answers are not as anonymous as they claim.
I think many unbelievers pretend to have a religion in case their employers somehow find access to the records.
Mick S @100
A poll like this does not mean anything to the individual seats. 200 people per seat is a poor sample which tells you nothing. The overall figure of 49-51 with about a 4% MOE in four marginals tells us, as Psephos rightly points out, that things are tight. If we were 45-55, which I feared when I read the ‘shock poll’ alert this afternoon, I would be worried. But while we are hanging in there, it is good. And I agree with your prediction entirely.
[I wonder how many care Abbott is a religious nutter, I but that number is higher than the number that care if JG is an adult that does or doesn’t believes in imaginary friends.]
fredn
As I said this morning can you imagine a PM with Howard in one ear and George Pell in the other.
Scary!
Why wouldn’t the Queensland seats have been two of Bowan, Herbert,Dawson and Dickson. Preferably a sample of all these seats is what we need to see about now.
[ays Abbott’s starting to have some problems of his own.
Wow, miracles can happen afterall…]
Has ‘God’ spoken?
BK @ 101
I’d love to see such a poll as well. 🙂
Yeah, its when he says something positive about the ALP that I start to worry.
So, this marginal seat poll was the average over 4 seats?
And they compared the primaries to what? The average result over the whole of the country last election.. or the averaged primaries for those particular 4 seats at the last election?
Abbott is not a “religious nutter.” He’s a perfectly orthodox Catholic who follows the official line of his church on matters of faith and morals. His views on abortion, RU-whateveritwas, homosexuality, etc, are standard official Catholic views. The fact that the majority of Australian Catholics chose to ignore their church’s official positions on most issues doesn’t alter that.
[On a two-party preferred basis, that gives the Coalition a 51 per cent to 49 per cent lead, Nine’s political correspondent, Laurie Oakes, reported tonight. Oakes says that swing would cost Labor up to 12 seats in Queensland and NSW. The Coalition needs to seize 17 seats nationwide to take power.
Although respondents rated Julia Gillard as a more impressive leader than Tony Abbott during the election campaign, 35 per cent of voters in the Queensland marginals said they would have been more likely to vote Labor under Kevin Rudd. Only 11 per cent said they would have been less likely to vote Labor with Mr Rudd as leader.
UPDATE: Tonight’s TV news bulletins are also going big with footage of Ms Gillard losing a shoe on the campaign trail and having it returned to her foot, Cinderella-style, by a forklift driver.]
The ABC should stick to Playskool. They are becoming an embarrassment to our society. Update to poll story about a friggin shoe. Arrghh 🙁
oops116 Bowman
[I’d love to see such a poll as well.]
Yes Tom, It would be interesting to see if the religious would prefer Julia to believe in Islam in preference to having no belief.
ABCNews gave a good run for labor tonight, saying the BER complaints etc was 3.0%.
To things that give me some optimism about Labor’s reelection chances are that 1) Labor appear to be holding Eden-Monaro fairly safely and 2) that there was a swing in the last 3 4 days to the incumbent at the last election.
Blue-ringed Octopus report 6 August
Dear reader, Bluey found it hard to get excited about today and spent most the day sulking morosely in his tide pool. He reckons he has had it up to the gills with too much déjà vu of feather dusters. How disgruntlement.
Agendas: Rudd! Howard! Latham! Fraser! BER interim report. Health. Opposition dodging scrutiny of their costings, including a backflip by Robb on the timing. Discontent within the Coalition on the PPL made public. Peripheral flirting with the burqa. Mostly, the agendas not good for Gillard.
Narratives: Yet another day of ‘Days of our Lives’ campaigning. We had ex-roosters faffing away, disturbing the motes of dust floating in the afternoon sunlight of a somnambulant campaign.
Rudd! the Almighty arose from his political deathbed to announce ‘Look at moi!’ That old fart Fraser said twice that Abbott is not up to government. (Bluey reckons that should go down well on Poll Bludger but, OTOH, that no-one else in the known universe would give a rat’s.) That old geezer Howard did a querulous rant about Bad Rudd! and Badder Gillard. How dreadfulment. Bluey wants to know what did they ever do to ex-Prime Ministers that octopi have to put up with this sort of sludge?
The MSM couldn’t be bothered reading the interim BER report (it has big words in it and it has numbers bigger than 51:49 TPP in it) so they contented themselves with framing questions in terms of Abbott’s memes. Bluey wonders if any of the journos have even heard of Stiglitz and of his view on the waste involved in laying off a couple of hundred thousand workers? Bluey is also waiting, waiting, for a single MSM journo to call Pyne on his $8 billion BER lie. Goebbels would be proud of that one. Don’t worry about the little fibs, go for the whoppers. Oakes? Shanahan? Kelly? Anyone? Bluey rates the MSM as abject wankers for their reporting on the BER alone. Still, bad for Gillard.
Bluey reckons that Abbott is shooting so many linear accelerators from the hip in Tassie that there will hardly be enough room left for apple trees. Some doctors, many nurses, and some of the state governments, think that Abbott’s beds extravaganza is a crock. What buildings will they go in? What doctors and nurses will be on hand? Where will the ancillary equipment come from? Good questions. Bluey reckons they are right, but is not expecting any MSM journalists to do a bit of policy analysis on bed numbers. Again, Bluey reckons that’s coz they are lazy bloody wankers.
There was an excellent bit of ambush marketing by the Liberals… they created their own ‘Waste Report’ and then conflated it with the BER report. The Kev O’lemon theme follow-on ads look effective to Bluey as well; the leaks, of course, being the gift that keeps on giving. Bluey’s congrats to the Coalition campaign team. Still, bad for Gillard.
Polls: The Adelaide Advertiser gave Pyne some comfort *sigh*. Bluey hopes wistfully that Pyne enjoys paddling about in rock pools; in bare feet.
Plus, a Galaxy poll showing more cause for distress in the Labor camp.
Plus, a PB poll special showing that 51% of respondents thought that Wm knows the right place to put a comma.
Bluey got some campaign material from Sen Lundy. It said that the last time the Liberals promised to reduce 2,500 APS staff by natural attrition they sacked 30,000. Bluey reckons that is a ratio of 1:12. This time they are promising a reduction of 12,000 APS staff by natural attrition. Let’s see, 12 x 12,000 = none left if Abbott gets in. Serves them all bloody right, Bluey reckons. After all, how many octopi are there in the APS? What goes round comes round.
Teams: Roxon and Dutton squared off on Ch 10. Roxon won on points. But the Coalition has managed to turn health into contested territory. None of the journos have picked up on Abbott’s multi-billion dollar pea-and-thimble trick. Strange, that.
Swan still battling valiantly away.
External events BOMBSHELL: Aussie beer prices might go up because of grain shortages caused by the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. AGW sucks! Plus, anniversary of a certain can of instant sunshine event.
Score for the day: win for Abbott, 2 points. Cumulative score Gillard 22; Abbott 18.
[Perahelion
Posted Friday, August 6, 2010 at 7:03 pm | Permalink
….
backburner too, more or less to eventually ditch it I think, thank heavens for common sense.]
Agree but why leave the doubt? Why go into an election without a clear result and leave those that can be harvested with this issue available for harvested. It’s electoral suicide, issue after issue, a clear attempt to put the decision off until after the election, leave it open for the Liberals to pick up one side, Labor head office is crazy.
Psephos @121, I regard anyone who follows the orthodox Catholic view, a religious nutter. Fortunately most Catholics aren’t that extreme.
[On a two-party preferred basis, that gives the Coalition a 51 per cent to 49 per cent lead, Nine’s political correspondent, Laurie Oakes, reported tonight. Oakes says that swing would cost Labor up to 12 seats in Queensland and NSW. The Coalition needs to seize 17 seats nationwide to take power.
Although respondents rated Julia Gillard as a more impressive leader than Tony Abbott during the election campaign, 35 per cent of voters in the Queensland marginals said they would have been more likely to vote Labor under Kevin Rudd. Only 11 per cent said they would have been less likely to vote Labor with Mr Rudd as leader.
UPDATE: Tonight’s TV news bulletins are also going big with footage of Ms Gillard losing a shoe on the campaign trail and having it returned to her foot, Cinderella-style, by a forklift driver.]
UPDATE: WTF
@fredn/98, it was won long ago with Greens and other parties voting no.
Sad to see people not realise this, this is an election people.
So the Ch 9 poll “shock” was that four marginals are too close to call??????????
FFS
[That is why either a petition or a letter of intent for all ALP voters to boycott every facet of Rupert Murdochs media.]
Dee – I wonder if that is already happening. NoosLimited had a pick up in profit but the film Avatar must have caused a lot of up that.
They are down to less than a handful of OO’s in our village every morning – not many more on weekends. A few years ago the pile was as big as the SMH. Even the Daily Terror pile is down. I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of people who vote Labor are keeping their mitts in their pockets when it comes to Murdoch papers.
I’ve said before I’ve gone from every paper every day of the week to none over the past 4 years.
[Plus, anniversary of a certain can of instant sunshine event.]
You’ll have to forgive me for being a bit slow here.
[Why wouldn’t the Queensland seats have been two of Bowan, Herbert,Dawson and Dickson. Preferably a sample of all these seats is what we need to see about now.]
You might or might not want to hear this, but being in Dickson myself anecdotal evidence suggests to me that with Rudd gone Labor stands a better chance. I know, I know, you mostly reckon that in Queensland with Rudd campaigning it helps, but just from some local chatter I don’t think so. It was boring up to now but some neighbours and local charity workers I’ve chatted to today have been positive for Julia. Ahem, as I said, anecdotal.
ltep’s analaysis: This was a swing to the Liberals, which will be repeated.
brizoz @125, yes they did sneak that figure in but the overall narrative was negative.
[To things that give me some optimism about Labor’s reelection chances are that 1) Labor appear to be holding Eden-Monaro fairly safely and 2) that there was a swing in the last 3 4 days to the incumbent at the last election.]
Well, we do know that Kelly is gunning it in Eden Monaro, so the 2.8% swing is obviously bigger in the other 3. Bonner’s 4.5% margin is going to be on a knife-edge on the 21st.
[So the Ch 9 poll “shock” was that four marginals are too close to call??????????]
27% “more likely to vote ALP if Rudd was still leader”, whatever that means, probably counts as a shock.
@cud chewer/137, yes they did, but they also gave some footage of Gillard saying it was for the GFC.
BH@117
It is all this talk about mary McKillop perhaps……
Unless of course an equal amount professed themselves less likely …
The editorial from the Sphere of Influence was that all 4 seats were goners for Labor. Common sense tells you that this is crap though.
I’d bet that that 27% would have been “more likely to vote ALP if Gillard was leader” if Rudd was still leader.
[You are going to get in trouble with “fair comment” and showing damages.]
I know Dio — my OH is a journalist.
I did say it was a dream. I think the fact that he is a journo makes the misrepresentations hit home all the more. (i.e. when you have insider knowledge, you can see how badly the performances really are).
Boerwar. Bluey sounds a little defeated today. He could do with a bit of refreshment, me thinks.
pinko, if ltep thinks that the swing in the last 3 to 4 days or so will go to the Liberals instead of the incumbent, that is cause for more optimism.
[Dee – I wonder if that is already happening. NoosLimited had a pick up in profit but the film Avatar must have caused a lot of up that.
They are down to less than a handful of OO’s in our village every morning – not many more on weekends. A few years ago the pile was as big as the SMH. Even the Daily Terror pile is down. I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of people who vote Labor are keeping their mitts in their pockets when it comes to Murdoch papers.
I’ve said before I’ve gone from every paper every day of the week to none over the past 4 years.]
Was on the phone to Foxtel today trying to get a better deal.
i asked if i could get rid of some channels, when the Sales person asked me what, I said Sky and Fox News.
We she asked why, I said they were appalling in their pathetic boias, and that David Speers was the only journo on Sky worth watching while Fox News was full of religious nutters.
the salesperson was actually quite shocked and suggested that i use the parental control. I suggested that she tell Foxtel exec exactly why i am ditching it.
A very tiny reaction from one person but Rupert only knows about revenue, and if he loses it, he wants to know why.
I NEVER buy a Murdoch paper.
Wm
Many years ago there was a documentary series that tracked wannabe Brit RAF pilots from woe to go. One of the questions was: ‘If you are order to drop a tactical nuclear weapon on a village, what would you do?’ The ones who went through to the next stage of the selection process answered, ‘I’d drop it.’
‘Can of instant sunshine’ was RAF pilots’ slang for tac nukes.
Today is the anniversary of Hiroshima.
[Well, we do know that Kelly is gunning it in Eden Monaro, so the 2.8% swing is obviously bigger in the other 3. Bonner’s 4.5% margin is going to be on a knife-edge on the 21st.]
Agreed