We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.
UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.
People 27% more likely to vote ALP if Rudd was still leader – Galaxy Poll
Now that’s a shock.
[People 27% more likely to vote ALP if Rudd was still leader – Galaxy Poll]
Makes you think how the re-emergence of Rudd is going to play out…
With Rudd as numero uno spruker the ALP will pick up a bigger share of the vote. More good than harm.
I’ll take that as a temporary brainfart, W.
[conpiracy-driven tirade about Champion and Ellis]
It’s hardly a conspiracy to observe (a) that the ALP right in SA in controlled by the SDA and (b) that Ellis has no real world experience. Or is any criticism/unflattering observation of Labor a “conspiracy” in your world?
[then got sooky and accused a poster of slander]
Er, no I didn’t? I did make a throwaway crack about it in a plainly tongue in cheek way, which either suggests you can’t read or have no sense of humour whatsoever.
[went apeshit on me because I made a post on how I intended to vote]
No, I didn’t.
What was all the talk about Morgan earlier?
I got sms polled a few hours back — asked whether Rudd will help ALPs campaign.
Surely that hasn’t been released already?
Previous thread:
BB@838:
[ Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here back in the day, when the site was a little more boutique.]
BB:
[Just a suggestion: the comma should go after “here”, not “day”.]
William:
[I have no idea why you think that, BB.]
Because he is right.
Didn’t a similar poll in 2007 put Labor ahead by the same margin?
What time can we expect Nielsen?
No, I’ve held that view for a while.
[People 27% more likely to vote ALP if Rudd was still leader – Galaxy Poll]
I know a certain Labor hack who won’t like to hear that.
[Now that’s a shock.]
It must be for those who thought Gillard would improve Labor’s vote.
Don, you risk being told you’re full of something.
Let’s look at this poll closer.
Bowman – Labor don’t even hold it.
Bonner – 4.5% margin to ALP. Could fall, but may not.
Eden-Monaro – Kelly won’t lose it.
Macarthur – wasn’t expecting them to hold it anyway.
[People 27% more likely to vote ALP if Rudd was still leader – Galaxy Poll]
I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that very few of them would actually be intending to vote Labor right now even if Rudd was still leader. To coin a phrase, they doth protest too much.
So which polls are due when? Essential?
I missed the report as I refuse to watch Oakes anymore. What was the upshot of this then?
If the collective swing to the LNP is 2.8% across the four seats then I am very scared – not.
We are not going to lose Eden Monaro; everyone seems to think we are going to hang on in Longman (great member, ridiculous LNP candidate); this figure would not make us lose Bonner and MacArthur is too line ball, even by these figures. I really do think that we are hanging on at present and there will be a swing towards us before the 21st. This is a nonsense poll delivered by a nonsensical media outlet. Let’s wait to the Nielsen.
Boerwar, re your earlier post, now the dots join up, thanks.
Of course the comma should go after “here”, not “day”. That’s basic grammar.
[I got sms polled a few hours back — asked whether Rudd will help ALPs campaign.]
jenauthor
Did the sms ask age, sex, location? when asking for a response. Or was it random?
That sounds a mite personal William.
[Because he is right.]
I think William got it right as a matter of style and grammar. The first part of the sentence would be correct if you put a full stop where the comma is, so why would it need a comma earlier on?
PS:
Though the comma after “here” can stay.
As in:
[Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here, back in the day, when the site was a little more boutique]
Bowman was held Liberals since last election dunno what channel 9 is smoking.
Wonder how the farmers affected by gas mining are going to vote?
Apparently, Bob Brown got a big round of applause when he flew in to give their rally support. Now, that’s something unheard of in hayseed Coalition country.
William, please let me repost this for those who did not see it on previous thread.
Galaxy poll of the 4 marginals in NSW and QLD:
Primary ALP 39 (down 6 from ‘07 vote), Coalition 44 (steady from ‘07 vote).
The 2PP is ALP 49, Coalition 51.
Only some cephalopod somewhere knows the margin of error—Galaxy might be informing us later.
I’d sooner we didn’t get derailed by this. Sorry I said you were fall of shit, BB, it wasn’t important enough to get exercised about.
[Did the sms ask age, sex, location? when asking for a response. Or was it random?]
Random, but I am on their survey list, so apart from my earnings (which I wouldn’t divulge) they have all my details.
That makes it poetry, as in:
Patrick@23:
[I think William got it right as a matter of style and grammar. The first part of the sentence would be correct if you put a full stop where the comma is, so why would it need a comma earlier on?]
If you did that, you would have:
[Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here back in the day. When the site was a little more boutique.]
or you would have, depending on what you mean:
Their number-cruncher-in-chief was actually a regular here. Back in the day when the site was a little more boutique.
Either gives a sentence without a functioning verb.
All we need now is a jingle 🙂
I reckon the comma should have been a semi-colon. Or maybe an empty colon. 😆
Apologies – I saw it was Bowman not Longman. Bowman is not even one of ours. What are they smoking?
too verbose
That’s fine, W. I’ve been called worse.
@In The Know/34
Obviously smoking something.
I think a few of us here are becomming commatosed Rua.
BB@14:
Don:
[Because he is right.]
BB:
[Don, you risk being told you’re full of something.]
I only take notice of that when the speaker has my respect.
[Either gives a sentence without a functioning verb.]
I was looking at it from the perspective of the comma in informal writing reflecting the point where one might pause if speaking. In which case I like William’s first attempt.
The mere fact that comma placement is the biggest grammar issue is testament to the high quality of this blog. LOLWTF!!1!
All this does is confirm Labor are badly behind at the moment. Nothing new.
That would call for a semi-colonoscopy..
Actually I do know how to spell “becoming”.
Rua@33:
[I reckon the comma should have been a semi-colon. Or maybe an empty colon.]
I go down that road regularly. It’s not the empty colon that’s the problem, or the investigation afterwards, it’s the process of getting there.
[All this does is confirm Labor are badly behind at the moment. Nothing new.]
You can’t tell even that from this poll.
Any thoughts on the impact of John Howard on this campaign?
[I reckon the comma should have been a semi-colon. Or maybe an empty colon. ]
But that means, Ru, that either a comma or a fullstop can be used. That’s why they are grouped together.
Have studied functional grammar and linguistics and Williams usage is correct, but the other option could be used, they just stress a different clause in the sentence.
[All this does is confirm Labor are badly behind at the moment. Nothing new.]
If the swing the poll points to is national, which we wouldn’t expect given what we think we know about NSW and Queensland, the Coalition would have a lead of 50.1-49.9.
Maybe we should all don sandwich boards and walk the streets to get the government’s message out 🙂 It seems all the media are dead set on putting Rabbot into Kirribilli House.
gc
IMHO, they should, keep, lit matches, from, old, farts;