We learn via Channel Nine that Galaxy has conducted a poll of two marginal seats in New South Wales, Macarthur and Eden-Monaro, and two in Queensland, Bonner and Bowman. We are told only of a 2.8 per cent swing against Labor, which I’m guessing means a composite result of 51-49 in favour of the Coalition from the four seats in question, which collectively produced a Labor two-party vote of about 51.8 per cent in 2007. On the primary vote, Labor is said to be down six points to 39 per cent and the Coalition steady on 44 per cent. I await further elucidation. I also await Nielsen and Westpoll, which Possum advises us will be out later this evening.
UPDATE: Courtesy of the indispensible GhostWhoVotes, Nielsen has it at 51-49 in favour of the Coalition. More to follow.
Yes Willim, but wasn’t it said in 2007 that the marginals tend to swing less than other seats? Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me.
Actually it’s quite a small swing, considering.
jen
[Have studied functional grammar and linguistics and Williams usage is correct, but the other option could be used, they just stress a different clause in the sentence.]
Agree. Forgive them because they know not what they do.
Patrick@40:
[I was looking at it from the perspective of the comma in informal writing reflecting the point where one might pause if speaking. In which case I like William’s first attempt.]
The comma is there to indicate pauses. Pauses are there to give import to what you are saying. Timing is everything, and that means pauses. If you want to convey what is said, punctuation is a big help.
Informal writing is more like Ron’s stream of consciousness. Nothing wrong with that, and commas are superfluous if you are writing informally. For the record, and I’ve said it before, I love Ron’s writing style.
But if you put them in, put them in the right places.
[All this does is confirm Labor are badly behind at the moment. Nothing new.]
Actually all it does is confirm that these are competitive seats.
BW
[gc
IMHO, they should, keep, lit matches, from, old, farts;]
We had a guy admitted to the Burns Unit last week who tried to test that theory with a bonfire.
The thing is that we were informed by the media that Qld and NSW were on the nose for Labor, in fact 54-46 to the Libs seemed to be the consensus.
Lo and behold Galaxy (it seems Ch9 has pulled the plug on paying them for national polls) come up with a 51-49.
Please lets have some more “shock” Galaxy polls.
I studied functional grammar at the School Of Hard Knocks. Minor errors were punished with a blackboard duster thrown at you. For major errors they got out the strap. That is why the Ferguson Brothers are such masters of the English language (we all went to the same school).
Jen@47:
[Have studied functional grammar and linguistics and Williams usage is correct, but the other option could be used, they just stress a different clause in the sentence.]
Ask for your money back.
don@54
As I’m not a linguist, I was using “informally” informally. I meant that William’s comment was written in a conversational tone and so the comma served (as you state) to indicate a pause as might occur if speaking the same words.
I enjoy the different writing styles you see on-line too. I particularly enjoy what I interpret to be the approach of oldies who didn’t necessarily grow up with the fast back and forth of the net, but have adapted their style to suit without degenerating to abbreviations and slang. The sort of ‘telegram’ style of forum posting.
I wonder if this poll was conducted before KR announced his ‘comeback’ in that blistering attack on Abbot around 2.00 pm yesterday. If so then the poll is way out of date.
It may hide quite wide swings within them though. I thought E-M was swinging strongly to Labor.
My sister informs me that Channel 7 had 24% worrying about Julia on her athieism, but a whopping 43% were concerned about Abbott’s stance on Birth Control (abortion and RU486, specifically).
LOL. Australians…
Feel free to correct my grammar anytime fellas, like climate change I reckon it’s all a load of crap. It’s still cold out there. 😈
Is anyone on this loop a lawyer?
I’d really like to sue News Ltd for ongoing and systematic misrepresentation of the truth/lying about events by their deliberate omissions of facts from their reports causing people to make decisions they might otherwise not make — you know, the kind of fraud that finance companies can be charged with because omission of facts can lead to them making unwise decsions.
Probably a few 100 million/billion to start with. Hit Rupert where it hurts. And also hit the individual journalists so the can find their social consciences.
I know it is pie-in-the-sky — but one can dream.
Some “shock”!
Just in case some of you had not caught up with “The Fundamentalist Adventures Of Tony Abbott – A Musical”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BC49dJSo5k
I remember telegrams. I was once even a telegram delivery boy. Best job I ever had. Out in the sun, lots of exercise, and you got to meet cute girls when you knocked on the door.
(Is a comma OK after “exercise”?)
Dio
*laughs, guiltily*
Four marginal seats from Queensland and NSW, I am not to sure what I can read into the results except that in those FOURmarginal seats in Queensland and NSW there is a swing to the Libs. When is a national poll coming out?
SHOCK ANNOUNCEMENT – DENNIS SHANAHAN PROVIDES BALANCED VIEW!!!!!
I never thought I would live to hear this. Go to the OO webite and listen to his and Patricia K’s take of the week. Complementary to Julia and thinks Labor will still win. Says Abbott’s starting to have some problems of his own.
Wow, miracles can happen afterall…….
Centre@65:
[like climate change I reckon it’s all a load of crap. It’s still cold out there]
So long as you are going to confuse weather with climate, check out the bushfires in Russia.
How can they report that Labor are “well behind” in those seats? They don’t even hold one of them. That isn’t misleading. That’s lying.
[My sister informs me that Channel 7 had 24% worrying about Julia on her athieism, but a whopping 43% were concerned about Abbott’s stance on Birth Control (abortion and RU486, specifically).\
BB
It’s funny, isn’t it, that 24% of people polled think that Gillard’s atheism will force her to do bad things. They probably think she should be guided by George Pell, Archbishop Wilson or an Islamic imam.
BB@69:
[Out in the sun, lots of exercise, and you got to meet cute girls when you knocked on the door.
(Is a comma OK after “exercise”?)]
Looks good to me!
24% of people are worried about Gillard’s atheism means that 76% don’t give a toss.
Mick S
I think you can take it as read that there is a swing on at the moment. But I still don’t think it is big enough to toss us out. I agree with Spiers, mackerrass and a few others. We are in front by around 5 seats, and if we have no more disasters like last week, that’s where it will end up.
Does anyone else find the choice of seats by Galaxy odd?
jenauthor
I feel your pain. When I first entered this blog site I tried to muster some likeminded voters to do a petition against News Ltd. I don’t know how to set one up online but something has to be done.
Problem for the ALP is that if they ‘offend’ News Ltd. by stating the obvious they will cop worse treatment.
Truly sickening crap. That is why either a petition or a letter of intent for all ALP voters to boycott every facet of Rupert Murdochs media.
[Wow, miracles can happen afterall…….]
Am I asleep? Dreaming? Is this like “Inception” the movie … I do NOT believe it. I need a link!
Professional pollsters must cringe when they see the political / media spin applied to their work.
NZ unemployement rate is 6.8.
[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38566725/ns/business]
That no stimulus plan of NZ sure worked wonders.
[and behold Galaxy (it seems Ch9 has pulled the plug on paying them for national polls) come up with a 51-49. [
iam a bit confused so is that in qld
[24% of people are worried about Gillard’s atheism means that 76% don’t give a toss.]
Is is the MO isn’t it. Start with the negative, even if it is lower — so the electorate will only notice the negative. STINKS!
I think BB @ 69, that you may not need to use a comma before “and”.
What the hell is happening here 😆
According to Wikipedia (examining Australian census statistics) 29.9% of Australians declared they had either “No Religion” or did not answer the census question on religion.
That leaves 70.1% who claim to have religious beliefs (includes all religions).
24% “worried” about Julia represents about 1/3 of those who hold religious beliefs, meaning 2/3rd of “religious” people don’t give a rats. That’s a pretty healthy statistic for Julia, in my view.
[Does anyone else find the choice of seats by Galaxy odd?]
I have a theory. They polled way more than those 4. But those 4 gave them the most “close” result.
[Yes Willim, but wasn’t it said in 2007 that the marginals tend to swing less than other seats? Maybe my memory is playing tricks on me.]
Not that I recall. I’ve just plugged the seat results from 2007 into a stats program and it didn’t show up a significant trend to this effect.
How can we be badly behind in four seats at 49-51 on a 800 person poll with an MOE of 4%? Nonsense. Forget this poll guys it means nothing. I live in Eden Monaro and Kelly is definitely in front. Not worried by Eden Monaro at all; nor should people be worried about Bonner.
A similar poll 4 days before the 2007 election had the ALP 52/48 at a swing of about 5.5%.
“Back in the day” is an idiomatic expression which is inherently ungrammatical, as many such expressions are. Given that, William’s sentence was perfectly grammatical.
[That no stimulus plan of NZ sure worked wonders.]
And they are free to come here to try for work — the figure should probably be a lot highe,r truth be told.
[Does anyone else find the choice of seats by Galaxy odd?]
Galaxy were commissioned by 9. Maybe Oakes chose the seats. Eden M is a given considering it’s the so called bell weather seat. If it’s a safe Labor seat based on other recen polls the the other 3 might be wild affairs. If so then 9 should have left out E-M and presented an anti-Labor shock horror story.
Thanks William. Dodgy memory I think.
jenauthor,
[I’d really like to sue News Ltd for ongoing and systematic misrepresentation of the truth/lying about events by their deliberate omissions of facts from their reports causing people to make decisions they might otherwise not make]
Me too – maybe a class action?
My Say, they have polled two electorates in Queensland and two in New South Wales. My general impression of the result is that it shows what polls generally have been showing – that it’s very close.
Sad but those that care now have clear reason to vote Liberal. The Liberal party is being liberal. Who would have thought.
[All this does is confirm Labor are badly behind at the moment. Nothing new.]
All this does is confirm that Ltep is a congenital pessimist who always thinks Labor is going to lose. Nothing new.
I do think Labor will be returned but with a reduced majority. The thing I don’t really understand though is the value of this poll? Is it a poll that was designed to get a certain result?