Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.
At the same time leading into the 2004 election, the Latham led Labor party were ahead 52 to 48 on 2pp and look how that turned out three weeks later. Howard maintained a handy lead on preferred pm during the whole period
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/cgi-lib.2590.1.1025_Final_Poll.pdf
This is no where near over yet
I can’t in my wildest fantasies believe that after Abbott’s no-means-no comment yesterday men would move to JG and women to Abbott. That doesn’t stand up to basic logic. This ‘poll’ has a smell about it. I say bin it and wait for something more credible.
BK I can’t argue with you there I really on rate 4 of his frontbench.
But they’re at level pegging on a high PV half way through the campaign against a first term government. It must reflect poorly on the governments record.
It is a little unfair given the ALP did some good with the stimulus but that they’re never going to be considered better managers of money than the Tories. Mind you when Labor wastes money on BER rip offs and the pink batts it does provide examples where Labor cant manage money.
Be careful Tom, Psephos will be measuring you up for a tinfoil hat soon enough.
[I can’t in my wildest fantasies believe that after Abbott’s no-means-no comment yesterday men would move to JG and women to Abbott. That doesn’t stand up to basic logic. This ‘poll’ has a smell about it. I say bin it and wait for something more credible.]
I disagree. This is all quite easily explained – people aren’t listening to a word Gillard says anymore, and consequently Abbott is given far more leeway.
The remainder of the campaign is simply a formality from this point onwards.
Disunity is death. Leaking is death. Congrats to the leakers. Not sure of the ulterior purpose of the leakers but, if the collateral damage happened to be Labor losing government, would they do it again?
Disunity is death. Leaking is death. Congrats to the leakers. Not sure of the ulterior purpose of the leakers but, if the collateral damage happened to be Labor losing government, would they do it again?
BK I rate only mcfarlane, hunt, billson and keenan.
See?
BB 😉
By ‘smell’ I am suggesting MOE although nothing would surprise me when Morgan is involved.
[can’t in my wildest fantasies believe that after Abbott’s no-means-no comment yesterday men would move to JG and women to Abbott. That doesn’t stand up to basic logic. This ‘poll’ has a smell about it. I say bin it and wait for something more credible.]
on chanel 7 if you go to sunrise you see polls and when you click on them they
say sponered by morgan dont suppose this is how they do it and call it a phone poll
Hmmm. Fake Julia didn’t work. The real Julia didn’t work. What to do now?
Perhaps not telling the world what your next move is might be a good start.
[The remainder of the campaign is simply a formality from this point onwards.]
Thanks for that itsthevibe
I’ve bookmarked that one
dont worry its only 608 people and its the same as newspoll so just forget it.
My hopes now remain with the election being close enough that the Libs can’t get a majority in the Senate this time or the next.
Where is psephsos????
Diogs
How about back to Rudd they were 52-48 ahead when he was leader 🙂
Plus he might shore up QLD.
I think Bludgers are underestimating the impact of Tony saying Gillard had admitted that her campaign had lost its way. It’s a good line let’s face it.
Give it a few days.
As I said yesterday, we’re not the frontrunners, we just have regained control of the ball.
I reckon the ALP needs to pitch harder at seniors – if they can pinch a point or two back here it could make all the diff of AUg 21.
After all – comparing 11 years of nothing with the actually existing pension under teh ALP rise works quite well.
[I’ve bookmarked that one]
Make no mistake, I’d dearly love to be proven wrong come election night. But, well… I won’t be.:P
hmmm, try “pension rise under the ALP”
As if pensioners are going to forget the “pensioners don’t vote Labor” line lefty.
And I am out of here early because I really tire of the vultures and defeatists.
[basic logic. This ‘poll’ has a smell about it. I say bin it and wait for something more credible.]
its the ratings my dear the rating you know the money and ratings thats what the world is about now.
just dismiss morgan and his poll i think william has even said morgan was not relialbe from time to time william why so quite latley you alwasy said we would win now your off the boil so to speak well i have apoligized for my out burst but i will cling to essential why are you so quite. you run this poll dont you give advice etc or only the above critic why are you now so quite
PS I doubt this poll would have registered Abbott’s latest gaffes. Stay tuned for those to come.
[And I am out of here early because I really tire of the vultures and defeatists.]
ditto.
[And I am out of here early because I really tire of the vultures and defeatists.]
*shrug* Sorry. I can only say what I feel…
[Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent.]
Often we Poll Bludgers evoke the margin of error for a bit of maybe false comfort. But seriously, what’s with this one? Labor’s primary vote down four in a week? What’s the MoE on a sample size of < 700 respondents?
This is a Morgan PHONE poll
If on his 2008 ph poll accuracy its accurate
If on his 2007 OR 2009 acuracy it under sells Morgans face to face results by 4%
suggest ignore it 100%
[25 To Speak of Pebbles
Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 6:47 pm | Permalink
And I am out of here early because I really tire of the vultures and defeatists.]
me to but for that i think i feel stil ok its like some sort of trechery going on like a medi evil thing cannot put my finger on liz the first comes to mind
Any poll that shows Tony in front with women voters has a serious sample problem. Especially a Morgan Phone one. 😛
hrm, i reckon the whole “Pensions” giving money is abit of a crock, where is money for those who learn to get jobs? where is the benefit?
[I think Bludgers are underestimating the impact of Tony saying Gillard had admitted that her campaign had lost its way. It’s a good line let’s face it.]
Thanks, but that line (which I didn’t hear) I’m sure sank with less than a trace.
A poll like this one the Wednesday before the election would indicate a narrow LNP win. With such a small sample size, not considering the situation in marginal seats and still a long way off the actual election date it’s not exactly a firm indicator as to how things will actually pan out on the 21st.
I remember reading somewhere that people on the full pension are a very strongly ALP voting group and therefore it is the partially and fully self funded retirees are much stronger for the Libs.
Ron
[Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 6:48 pm | Permalink
This is a Morgan PHONE poll
If on his 2008 ph poll accuracy its accurate
If on his 2007 OR 2009 acuracy it under sells Morgans face to face results by 4%
suggest ignore it 100%]
ron thanks for that i will come back later and look do you actully have what he predicted in fig and the out come
The Rabbott was full of hubris as he virtually claimed victory. He also said there is no need for a debate.
Just stopped short of claiming, ‘It’s all over’. I have won. 🙁
Cuppa its has bitten and it will with the punters so long as Gillard looks like a ‘loser’.
Dee he said ‘the former government’ 🙂
Labor’s marginal seat campaign better be good
In terms of mistakes Julia Gillard has made (ie leaving aside leaks, KR etc), that were grist for the mill in terms of “water cooler” talk among ordinary punters, two stand out:
1. The CC citizens assembly. If the clowns who came up with this had bounced it around a room of let’s say 20 or 30 ordinary people, it would have been laughed down in a matter of minutes.
2. Even more diabolically stupid was flagging the “real” Julia stuff. She must have dreamt this up on her own because surely no adviser, no consultant would have been daft enough to OK this. Talk about the biggest gift to Tony Abbott that he could possibly have imagined. If she wanted to change tack, become more accessible etc, then just do it, and let the commentators talk about it after the fact.
Don’t despair. Julia has 2.5 weeks yet. It’ll be close, but a victory for our side over the Forces Of Darkness is the most likely.
The lady has style and appeal. That’s what the punters want to see. Expecting instant turnarounds is a fool’s quest (can I say that without insinuating any of youse are fools?).
It’ll all take time to sink in. The public is fickle and doesn’t want to be seen to change its mind too quickly. They like to be wooed.
Calm down.50/50 is better than 45/55.
I do agree with that. It was Julia being too honest. She’ll toughen up.
[The public is fickle and doesn’t want to be seen to change its mind too quickly.]
They changed their minds pretty quickly from 55/45 in the first week to 50/0 now.
By the end of the last week her campaign launch is badly placed and if she continues this badly BB it wont save her bacon on the 21st.
She needed it this weekend to gain momentum.
This poll smells a bit iffy, but come on. “Nah, forget this one, means nothing, let’s wait for the next one”. Hilarious.
If it suggested men had all flocked to Gillard rather than women to Abbott, and the TPP was 53-47, you’d all be saying “this is the poll!” and cracking open the champagne.
Well, the media ghouls have got what they wanted a close fought election. The only problem with trying to engineer a close fought election is that if you go too far to ensure an incompetent, undeserving opposition do become competitive, they run the risk of the meme taking hold a bit better than they really wanted and a good, competent government gets tossed out for a far inferior alternative.
[And I am out of here early because I really tire of the vultures and defeatists.]
Sorry but I am a realist.
I remember being told on this blog that the Australian people aren’t that dumb to fall for the Rabbott rabble. I differed. Aussies have had it too good for too long.
They needed a good financial thump. Problem is the Coalition all but dumped it in the ALP’s lap. The ALP did beautifully and now the Coalition are back to take government. Do you really think the Murdoch empire would have fought to get this Rabbott into power if the economy was ratshit due to the GFC?
Me don’t think so.
This is so depressing it hurts.
lefty e
Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 6:45 pm | Permalink
“I reckon the ALP needs to pitch harder at seniors”
thats by far smallest age group of swing voters
Election STILL up for grabs , last weeks polls SOLELY affectd by leaks , leaks stopped now , so opportunity to rebound on econamy , w/c , education etc …still think we’ll win
[Expecting instant turnarounds is a fool’s quest]
Not expecting an instant turnaround is one thing. But for a poll taken last night, after what was the ALP’s best day for a long time, to show a FALL in 2PP of 3%? Sorry. I can’t even try deluding myself about this situation any longer.