Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50-50”

  1. cud chewer @ 1043

    An excellent question. We await in breathless … explanation of the funding arrangements. What is the rate these days? For grunt office work? A cask of plonk and a wink? Sorry, I’m a bit out of touch.

  2. Dagget @688 (Sorry, I came home late and still only on page 14) I heard on the car radio that the $3k per older worker is for full-time work only. A speaker for an older persons group said most want part-time work, and small biz mostly wants part-time workers for the extra couple of days a week. The subsidy will be of little use to the older jobseeker or the small biz owner.

    So Anthony Abbott is offering a Clayton’s subsidy. That’s why it’s not ‘costed’. It won’t cost anything!

    I used to work in employment programmes during the 1990’s recession and I know these subsidies well; they are not much use. The worker often gets chucked when the subsidy runs out. Its main benefit is to get some recent work history on the resume of the long term unemployed jobseeker.

    I also heard that the $3k doesn’t get coughed up until after 6 months of employment so it’s no help for staff start-up costs, and just signals that at the six months mark it’s, “Thanks, and please clear out your desk.”

  3. Good on Rudd for finally making his decision to campaign for Gillard…Hayden did that when Hawke deposed him in 1983(and soon after became Foreign Minister.. then later GG )
    ..and in Victoria when Brumby was dumped as Opposition Leader in 1999,he took it and worked for Bracks at the election,,,and became Treasurer when Bracks won,then later Premier when Bracks resigned.
    Hopefully Rudd can help in Queensland to turn back the extreme right wing surge !!
    Good for Kevin !!!!!!!!!

  4. Cuppa (@Surely sale of the ABC would require legislation which would never pass the Senate and would be deeply unpopular.)

    No, not the sale of the ABC, rather, this:

    “TWO important government decisions on media policy that were thought to be imminent are set to be delayed until after the election, sparing the government from moves that might infuriate Rupert Murdoch.” quoted from here…

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/media-decisions-pushed-back-beyond-election-20100715-10co4.html

    I think Anthony Abbott as PM would be an pushover for the King Rat.

  5. Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    Socrates
    Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    “Just watching the Ten late night news and I can’t see how Rudd entering the campaign will be a negative for Labor….
    Several posters were quite ungratious in the past about Rudd’s reaction to his very poor treatment by Labor. Their comments now look even more inappropriate.”

    I resent that , so broad brush is unfunny

    I and most Labor posters suported Leadership change BASED on dire polls (refer Morgans 5 marginal; seat polls 3 days before change showing Labor losing 4 of those 5

    Only a politcal amatur could not read those polls , and see other marginal seats had to be in same dire straits meaning Labor wuld lose And making Newspolls aveqge of oz oz-wide voting of 52/48 total meaningles In fact Labor’s lousy 35% primary was a hint

    I’m tired of amaturs pollster analyists (or those with a BELATED vested love for Kevin) trying to justify what 85 professional politcans (85 Labor MP’s out of 115) prefessionally made a election result analysis on

    Most Labor suporters here understanding th need leadership change incl sir ron DID praise Kevin’s as th key player in Labor’s 2.5 yrs of wonderful core left reforms implamaneted So your comments is way out of court of vast majority

    Critics incl me highlited Kevin’s CC defer decision as poor of leaving a polisy vacuum so that Labor could wrongly be accused of not standing for CC A myth somehoww Kevin was so week others told him to defer CC is an insult to Kevin anyway by those making such MSN inspired foolish claims Kevin was PM , he made cll at end of day Everyone makes a blue , he made one , unfortunate it was a bad one

    Critics incl me also earlier criticised not going public early enuf and brutally to call out MS/Abbott lies on Insulatuion fires & 4 deaths lies to kill it (instead of JUST defndin it in HoR) By doing going public early and tough so , in th end after 3mths im wasted HoR defenses , Kevin to kill story then produced mea cuppa & Peter demotion

    Kevin lost his job not because of his character but of dire marginal seat polls as assesed by min of 85 Labor MP’s – deel with it

    As to Q’s about Kevin’s charctr by 3 bloggers , can I say NONE of th 85 Labor MP’s would ever vote out Kevin as PM if he was going to deliver victory (even if they thought him a bastard)

    Having said that bit , I dont like and said so any character assination of Kevin Rudd anyway seeing his PM left reform record overall is wonderful I can supply a big list too
    As to if Kevin was a dictator , well prob was , all leaders ar ….anmd with his high 2 yrs poll numbers may be he went too far , that hapens too but then Party MP’s party at fault there But Kevin made Insulation and CC deferal blues , and marginal seat polling showed a bad loss so he got changed

    so times do move on and time to move on , but with past of Kevins great acheivements and his loss of PMship not based on bullshite of nsw right & other conspiracy crap but on marginal Polls results Politcs FIRST is about numbers and marginal polls results for th realists of moderate voters views who DO decide electons

  6. Where was i tonite , well out door knocking , and with a tie on As usual tough gig as lots of peoples out , got visitors , or busy with Tv or whatnot or not intersted

    Won no votes , never asked for any anyway of couse , just to consider a few things IF person seemed abot open minded

    Diff people got diff prioritys but boats and imigration and w/c and jobs and interst were quite regular themes No surprise No guys mentioned PPL natural , a few ladies did , and CC little comment Cost of living always going up and taxes is an issue to people

  7. Cuppa,

    Abbott and his flea-bitten crew are fiscal nutters. They loathe the ABC. Nothing should be owned by the public. That smacks of – hush! Children! – God-damned Socialism. And that’s agin God … etc.

    They would sell off bits of the ABC within 10 minutes of gaining office.The lot in 12 months. Like Kennett sold the trains, the electricity …

    Pigs.

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