Morgan phone poll: 50-50

Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,059 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 50-50”

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  1. *Anyway I’m off to vote tomorrow followed by a viewing of the movie Inception*

    Will let Bludgers know of the early voting scene in Melbourne tomorrow night.

    Should be a good day.

  2. [Ryan it has been depressing being a Liberal ever since Howard lost in 2007 seeing where we had gone and what we then amounted to after John Winston Howard.]

    Remind us again how badly Australia came out of the GFC. It came out so badly that many in the electorate don’t even believe that there was a GFC.

  3. Gusface

    F3 – thank you – and yes I do remember it did have a toll – probably an extortionate 60c if I recall.

    The Wollongong Freeway – the F6? – also used to have a toll.

  4. Interesting snippet here from Queensland Hansard of Question Time yesterday:

    What is the announcement he made yesterday about responding to climate change. He was up in Cairns and was asked on radio whether he was aware of the issue of rising sea levels and their possible impact on the Torres Strait. What was his response.

    It was that he suspected that there was to be an engineering solution. What, he is going to build dykes around the islands in the Torres Strait? Is that the practical response to climate change that Tony Abbott so professes? This man is quite unbalanced on the issue of climate change. Fancy going down the path of building dykes around the Torres Strait Islands. If that is a practical solution or response to climate change we want nothing to do with that.

    http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/hansard/documents/2010.pdf/2010_08_04_DAILY.pdf

  5. [France has 60 million people and the government paid for every last centime of the TGV and it has never made a sous. It is a worthy cause but unfortunately a stunt that will wither away after the election.]

    BBS,

    The SNCF is not struggling. It is a great system that has virtually killed off short-haul air traffic. I agree however that in the Australian context it appears very much a pipe-dream.

  6. Glen

    1. Does the acronym AEF mean anything to you? (unrelated)

    2. The only thing more depressing than being a Liberal since Howard lost is seeing other Liberals ‘wish’ for certain members to lose their seats in a misguided attempt to realign the party. We are what we are. A rich tapestry.

    Say what you will about the ALP hacks on here, but at least they are single minded when it comes to winning.

    Any Liberal government is better than the current hopeless mob.

  7. Off topic…but just for the information of all the anti-Clover Moore people that comment on here. There were 2 rallies planned to be held at Sydney Town Hall tonight. One an anti-cycle way protest and the other a pro-cycle group. No one turned up to the anti-cycle protest and about 100 to the pro-cycle rally. If things are decided by feet-on-pedals – the clear winner is easily ascertained.

  8. Scarpat

    European fast trains aren’t cheap but yes they have killed off some air traffic – Paris/ Brussels for one and internally in France.

  9. [The only thing more depressing than being a Liberal since Howard lost is seeing other Liberals ‘wish’ for certain members to lose their seats in a misguided attempt to realign the party. We are what we are. A rich tapestry.]

    Unfortunately, it is not a rich tapestry. There a handful of centre-right members with the vast majority grouped in the hard right.

  10. Glen @968,

    All I want is Labor’s margin reduced to a 7-10 seat majority.
    Tony Abbott thrown out as Liberal leader replaced by a more moderate leader.]

    Unfortunately that will be seen as a victory for Abbott.

  11. BBS @1009, see above. Earlier TGV’s weren’t cheap. As the technology matures, the costs go down. We could learn a lot from their experience.

  12. [Any Liberal government is better than the current hopeless mob.]

    Good to see the asset sales of the Queensland Liberal Party have ensured there will never again be a Liberal Government darkening our doorstep in Queensland. How much debt and deficit was there Ryan when the Liberal Party surrendered and gave away all their assets to the National Party in a fire sale? Economic genii if ever there were any.

  13. Winning is one thing. Winning for the right reason and the right policies and with the right people is another.

    No AEF doesnt mean anything to me.

    I will be always be happier when Liberals are in government. But the fact remains that unless people criticise them for their failings they’ll continue to fail and continue to leave Labor in power which is not good for anybody in my view.

    [Any Liberal government is better than the current hopeless mob.]

    I dont disagree with you. But I will say the Libs could do SO much better than Abbott’s mob IMHO.

    What I dislike is good people in the Party being shafted (Billson/Keenan) for people who dont deserve their spot for either gross incompetence or because they’re a kiss ass (Dutton/Abetz).

    If Labor wins I hope the Liberals take a long hard look at themselves and modernise, throw out the dead wood, act like a government and stand by policies.

  14. Is it true that Paul Keating has a diary “conflict” which prevents him attending the Labor launch (presumably one that can’t be shifted around) ?

  15. [All I want is Labor’s margin reduced to a 7-10 seat majority.
    Tony Abbott thrown out as Liberal leader replaced by a more moderate leader.]

    [Unfortunately that will be seen as a victory for Abbott.]

    Cud Chewer,

    Even if the Liberals lose by 7-10 seats or fewer, I don’t think that Abbott would be leading the Liberals to the 2013 election. He can’t come up fresh and new. There will be change of leader but whether to someone more moderate…?

  16. Rudd’s a good man. I never doubted it.

    Obviously not up to me but I say that, if we win the election, move Smith to Finance and put Rudd in Foreign Affairs.

  17. Btw, I stepped into this late, but I must say that we finally are seeing the benefits of the Rudd technocratic approach. Infrastructure Australia has absolutely nailed the number one place to build a high speed rail link and that is Sydney to Newcastle.

  18. [Even if the Liberals lose by 7-10 seats or fewer, I don’t think that Abbott would be leading the Liberals to the 2013 election. He can’t come up fresh and new. There will be change of leader but whether to someone more moderate…?]

    Abbott was seen as the necessary evil to solidify the base. His flaws are well known and unless a close election result occurs (eg. gov wins by 1 seat/indies or loses popular vote but wins seats) they’ll put someone with a bit more cross appeal in next time (though it doesn’t necessarily have to be a “moderate”)

  19. Glen @1018, did you see my earlier, much longer past yesterday about the origins and outcomes of the Liberal philosophy.

    In short, at their worst they (Liberals) are dangerously ideological taking “small government” to an extreme and acting on mad ideas like thinking that cutting wages helps the economy. At their best they merely act as blundering middle of the road populist party with no vision and a tendency to do things that favour the rich.

  20. [Any Liberal government is better than the current hopeless mob.]

    Despite the present government actually not being hopeless? If you had some self respect Ryan, you’d realise you’ve been swallowing spin and beatup.

  21. Beat up from the OO:

    Australian Media aus_media

    ALP website omits Julia’s socialist past: THE Labor Party has been caught posting an incomplete transcript of a re… http://bit.ly/dlHfKK 2 minutes ago via twitterfeed

    Actually the error has ben rectified and it’s now on the ALP website.

    JONES: You were once, you said you were once a part time typist in the Socialist Forum and it was formed from the old Communist Party and from 1984 to 1993 you were a prominent figure in that and they wanted to move Australia from the ANZUS alliance, they wanted to twin Melbourne with Leningrad and you wrote, in your words, how the extreme left could advance it’s agenda by giving strategic support to the Labor Government. Three years ago you were asked on Adelaide radio when did you cease being a member of the Socialist Forum and you said your active involvement ended when you were a University student, quote, more than 20 years ago which would have been 1987 but the Parliamentary Register of Interests says that you were a member of the Socialist Forum from 1998 to 2002 and in 1994 a flyer presented you as a guest speaker at a Socialist Forum event describing you as a member of the Socialist Forum Management Committee. Now I raise this only because the preference deal with the Greens….

    PM: Oh Alan

    JONES: I raise this only because the preference deal with the Greens

    PM: Oh Alan turn it up…(laughs)

    JONES: Well hang on, this is a very left leaning outfit so are we going to have a tax on capital, and a tax on business

    PM: Oh Alan…(laughs)

    JONES: Well how could you laugh that away? Which is the truth?

    PM: Well I’ll tell you the truth Alan, what a load of old cobblers. Honestly, honestly…

    JONES: Why, why

    PM: Look the Liberal Party spent a lot of money last election campaign advertising about these things so this not a new revelation Alan, You know that and I know that…

    JONES: But it goes to the fact whether you told the truth when you were asked, when you were finished with the Socialist Forum. Did you?

    PM: Look, I was, as is a matter of public record, when I was at university I worked with this organisation, I did…

    JONES: You weren’t at uni in 1998..

    PM: Alan, and I’d stayed on a management committee and then the organisation merged with the Fabian Society and what was all of this about? This was about a, you know, ideas debating forum that people would come along and contribute ideas and they would be debated and the like. For you to suggest or to any way imply that somehow those things from the past are related to things that are happening today is just ridiculous. What do you say the relevance of this is right now (inaudible)

     http://www.alp.org.au/federal-government/news/transcript–julia-gillard,-prime-minister-intervie/ 

  22. [Abbott was seen as the necessary evil to solidify the base.]

    I doubt that’s the thinking of the extreme right. To them Abbott is not a temporary fixer, he’s their only viable figurehead.

  23. Or to put another way, the best thing for the Liberal Party is a humiliation. At this stage given current expectations, Labor coming back with just a few extra seats (even less than the notional 88) would certainly do the trick.

  24. [Despite the present government actually not being hopeless? If you had some self respect Ryan, you’d realise you’ve been swallowing spin and beatup.]

    Yep, a lot of people arguing from their own incredulity. “I hate Labor, therefore Labor must be stuffing up and on the nose.”

    Though to be balanced, we do it too. And both sides are just as bad with rose coloured glasses (I’m sure there will be a few here next year who’ll believe that the NSW government isn’t in that much trouble and their prospects are rising, simply from the spin)

  25. BB 888 [The problem with Rudd’s interview tonight is that it’s all the media will want to talk about for a few days. Some will even venture that Rudd did this deliberately to steal the limelight from Julia, while on the surface professing to support her.]

    I agree with BB as per my 318

  26. [Or to put another way, the best thing for the Liberal Party is a humiliation. At this stage given current expectations, Labor coming back with just a few extra seats (even less than the notional 88) would certainly do the trick.]

    It would certainly give them a wake up call. In the long term, losing traditionally Liberal seats like Sturt may help them. They could use it as an opportunity to free themselves of dead wood and put some new stars in.

  27. [I doubt that’s the thinking of the extreme right. To them Abbott is not a temporary fixer, he’s their only viable figurehead.]

    It would’ve been to the middle who initially supported Joe. Turnbull was losing support of the base itself.

  28. Thomas Paine@1033

    BB 888 [The problem with Rudd’s interview tonight is that it’s all the media will want to talk about for a few days. Some will even venture that Rudd did this deliberately to steal the limelight from Julia, while on the surface professing to support her.]

    I agree with BB as per my 318

    Kevin Rudd has decided to move on and join the Caravan.

    You apparently haven’t seen fit to follow him.

  29. Now JGillard has apologised to Qld for knifing Rudd in the courier mail.

    Not sure if that was a good idea, but then again she is extremely desperate now, totally lost about what to do so she will give anything a try.

    This is something for the media to play with for a day or two, and it will depend how they play.

    Seems Labor can’t get past day one when JGillard selfishly knifed Rudd. Now they are desperate for Rudd’s help, but Rudd helping may have the opposite effect. Rudd is larger than life whilst JGillard is fading already.

    The thing that is a danger for JGillard in this current set up – ie remding people she knifed Rudd and Rudd now saying he will do what he can to help is that she will seem like a pretender, unable to cope.

    The Liberal Party will probably talk about how Rudd was knifed because the Govt was losing its way, now Labor is desperate for his help because they are lost without him, how can JGillard call her self a leader…and so on. Will be very potent message.

  30. Accidentally looked at one of your comments – Frank JGillard is a pretender, cannot even produce a honeymoon, reversed the poll trend and has taken Labor to the brink of defeat whereas Rudd was never going to lose.

    Rudd is doing the smart thing – for future roles beyond govt or another shot at the leadership in the future. And the sobering lesson from JGillard’s effort is that being leader isn’t for everyone and that Labor may not have as much of that talent as it assumes.

    JGillard’s right wing political bent also needs to be considered as to how she is really differentiated from the Liberals, shades of grey.

    It is your addiction that needs to be looked at.

  31. blue green @910…

    [Completely unaffordable and unbuildable. All the serious infrastructure guys know this. Just look at a topographic map. THe dissected sydney sandstone country is a killer.]

    That used to be the case. These days large dozers do the job quickly and easily. And sandstone is also good when you need to do deep cuttings because it is self supporting, hence much less material to be hauled and lower costs of support structures.

    In any case I think you’ll find that on the Sydney to Newcastle link you’ll end up with a combination of two things. One is re-using the existing freeway right of way (which offers the added attraction of adding more road lanes.) The other is more use of relatively light weight bridges/elevated sections (remember you’re not building a freight line) and tunnels (tunnel boring has come a long way).

    And just to pique your interest, one option is to simply dig a cutting through the median strip of the existing freeway, sit a box section pre-fab concrete “tunnel” into the cutting and then either reinstate the median or use that (where applicable) as your extra lanes.

  32. Abbott has probably grabbed most of Thursday’s attention with his comment.

    [Burqas are confronting and I wish fewer people wore them, says Tony Abbott ]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/national/burqas-are-confronting-and-i-wish-fewer-people-wore-them-says-tony-abbott/story-fn5z3z83-1225901091959

    This will whistle straight to many Queenslanders who will vigorously agree not to mention other states. If Abbott makes a bigger issue out of this aka Howard he could still a few days air.

  33. It is quite apparent that Kevin Rudd, despite the dumping, is big enough and his heart is large enough to put that aside for the common good. I do feel for Kevin Rudd. To me, he is a true and honest hero. That’s all I ask.

  34. I assume this is a non denominational blog and that it isn’t requirement that all comments are pro Gillard Labor though I understand that PB is a corner where many have gathered.

  35. [It is quite apparent that Kevin Rudd, despite the dumping, is big enough and his heart is large enough to put that aside for the common good. I do feel for Kevin Rudd. To me, he is a true and honest hero. That’s all I ask.]

    Yes he is, and much bigger than those who wanted his job or the character of the Party the creates them.

  36. Really? Julia Gillard apologised for knifing Rudd? I hope not. It sounds like another JG spur of the moment mistake.

    Anyway, a couple of hours on from the LNL Kevin Rudd interview, I have concluded that it might well prove to have been CATHARTIC.. for all concerned, for Kevin Rudd, for those who felt saddened by his departure, maybe even for Julia Gillard. I reckon this might be the turning point.. Nothing substantive was said. KR maintained his previous lines about supporting the government etc etc, but there something in the mournful, broken voice that sounded to me like healing might be close for Labor.

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