Morgan has published another of its mid-week phone polls of 660 respondents, conducted last night, and it finds the two parties deadlocked on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is down four points on last week to 38 per cent, with the Coalition up three to 45 per cent. It also finds Tony Abbott’s approval rating (up six to 52 per cent) has overtaken Julia Gillard’s (steady on 46 per cent), with Gillard’s disapproval up two to 39 per cent and Abbott’s down two to 38 per cent. However, Gillard retains a 48-37 lead as preferred prime minister. Gender gaps are found to have rapidly narrowed, and while there is evidence for this across the board, Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.
[Cuppa its has bitten and it will with the punters so long as Gillard looks like a ‘loser’.]
Glen, to my way of thinking, his egregious recital of the rape-accused’s defense line FOUR times should have logically had a greater effect than some hubristic statement that even I, a fairly engaged political follower, didn’t hear.
But who knows. It’s hard to make sense of anything much lately. You’d think someone like Abbott, with all his known “idiosyncrasies”, would be unelectable. Yet look where we are. I do predict though, with a high degree of certainty, that if he were to be propelled into the Lodge he would end up in the history books as one of the most divisive, reviled Prime Miniatures. I think the Liberals made an unwise choice, and they will live to regret it.
Get rid of the damn ISP Filtering would be a good start, it’s aimed at young people.
Cuppa if what you say is true then IF and I say IF he is elected (as he hasnt been yet) then he’ll last 1 term.
[I think the Liberals made an unwise choice]
Cuppa you wont have me argue with you on that statement.
“The Liberals made an unwise choice and will live to regret it, Abbott will be divisive and his own party will hate him?”
Is this a cut and paste from 1996 or what?
[then he’ll last 1 term]
Highly unlikely. The economy is on the way up and we’ll be back in surplus. Labor will have very little to stand on.
Well also they’ll have Swan as leader almost as bad as Eric Ripper in WA.
@ltep/57,
Recovery was already on the way back up thanks to Labor’s efforts.
gloryconsequence
Do you think the voters are not listening to the ALP ?
We all know that brisoz, but the Liberals won’t miss a beat to drive their message through to the public.
2. Even more diabolically stupid was flagging the “real” Julia stuff.
Yep, that was pretty weird, and amateurish.
[Hmmm. Fake Julia didn’t work. The real Julia didn’t work. What to do now?]
The 3rd Julia
If we lose, I want to say a special thanks to the leakers as well. I hope you live with yourself (selves) for the rest of your life (lives0 in that you might have condemned labor for at least two terms of opposition. I would like to know what you would say to all those terrific members, candidates and party members who have been busting their guts out for the last two and a half weeks. You are nothing but gutless low lives.
As for this poll, I am not sure how we should read it. The basic message is that the trend is going towards the coalition and that their primary vote is in winning territory. Not sure how it gets turned around as the more there are of these polls the more the narrative will be in the media that labor is gone. Just got to keep plugging away and hope that something goes our way.
BTW – those who thought that ‘no means no’ stuff was going to resonate are mistaken. Those who have long fought political correctness far outstrip those like us who found those words offensive.
ABC news even handed played up Abbotts ‘former government’ and ‘pause’ moment and also showed Gillard saying ‘better economic plan’ 5 times in a round 🙂
The Blue-ringed Octopus Report 4 August
The agendas: Abbott’s economic credentials; PPL – cost to budget – disparity between low income earners and high income earners; Abbott’s serial PPL backflips; silence on whether or no the Coalition is going into surplus by 2012/13; Abbott’s ‘no’ doesn’t mean ‘no’. ABC: Kezza harassing Gillard on Rudd. Did she make a phone call to Rudd while he was in his sickbed? (How importantment is that!) ABC. Kelly harassing Gillard over Rudd (How importantment is that!) [hey Kezza, Fran, get a bloody life will youse?] ABC did asylum seekers this week; ABC to do mental health next week. ABC to do successful charting of the GFC storms the week after the election. Nah, Bluey’s just kidding. Abbott’s 50+ workforce participation scheme; family benefits reforms, accelerated provision for getting at your baby bonus. Anyway, agendas about 50:50.
Narratives: Abbott reckons that every time he loses mouth control and says something on the nose it must be a Labor smear campaign. Bluey wants to know who the invisible Labor people are who are in control of Abbott’s mouth.
The corporate sector must be ready to murder Abbott. The 1.5% corporate PPL tax is going to really hurt some of the biggies. The Australian has a cumulative spend-o-meter. Punters might be surprised that the Liberals, apparently with huge concerns about borrowing $100 million every day, have made $11.6 billion worth of new spending promises, while Labor has made $3.2 billion worth of new spending promises. Now, Bluey only knows enough about economics to get the fiscal settings right for buying a cup of coffee. But, but, but, if the Liberals are spending more, and they are going to be taxing less, aren’t they be going to be borrowing more per day than Labor is borrowing? Bluey would like to see Joyce getting onto to their numbers to make sure it all work out. Anyway, narratives 50:50.
Bwah! Wah! Poor Widdle Bolty Wolty. A fakeBolt tweeter took the piss, and Bwah! Wah! it got too hot in Bolt’s kitchen. [This is Bluey’s fav moment for the campaign, to date.]
Abbott continuing to be a big girl’s blouse on the economic debate. Bluey reckons that on economics he combines no idea and no ticker.
The promises trend towards the Commonwealth bypassing the states to get the funds directly to individuals continues. In other words the federatal structure with its vertical fiscal imbalance is under severe strain and the Feds are cutting out the middlepersons. Folks, we are seeing historical structural change by increment and by stealth, and both sides are at it.
Bluey reckons that if Gillard does get back in, the ABC should expect the shit in the stables to be mucked out thoroughly; some of the old nags and hacks infesting the mare’s nest to be shot for pet food, and some of the frisky right wing ABC stallions to be sent off to join their soulmates on Sky, where they so obviously belong. Bluey reckons that the separation packages should include bottles of blonde hair dye, bimbos for the impersonation of.
BTW, Bluey is thinking of voting against Gillard because she is the No 1 femme ticket holder of the Scraggers. He means to say! Bazza Hall. Eeeuw!
Polls: Being innumerate, Bluey reckons that psephologists get far too precious about the quantitative aspects of the polls to second decimal places. Where are their intuitive selves? Where are their links to the zeitgeist? So, Bluey did a bit of your basic Marxist materialist and means-of-production type analyses, and, while not wanting to overegg the cake, Bluey reckons that the polls may indicate that Australia not only has a two speed economy, it is also has a two speed culture. Cultural Speed No 1 is blokes, mines, ores, 4×4 machines, outside work and hairy chests. Cultural Speed No 2 is women, offices, services, words, inside work and, um, ah, unhairy bosoms. Bluey reckons it is up to youse to figure out which one just lervs Abbott, and which one coos over Gillard.
Teams: Kim Carr nearly got to say something today. He may have, and Bluey may have missed it. Daintree Rainforest research centre. How Ohm! Ohm! Apart from that the usual.
Emerson did a cracker of a job on Q&A last night, but. Joyce went for the clown role and achieved his thespian ambitions nicely. Dutton did the faintly offended public school boy having to talk to the grubby hoi polloi. Bluey reckons he is a natural unnatural. Hey, Dutton, can’t life just get filthy in a democracy?
Score for the day: Draw, 1 point to Gillard; 1 point to Abbott. Cumulative Score Gillard 20; Abbott 16.
DEE
Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 6:57 pm | Permalink
“Sorry but I am a realist.
…This is so depressing it hurts.”
but you not thinking as realist as you in shock
So lets put some perspectives
Labor only dived last week cause whole wek taken up with leaks , no labor oxogen
Morgan phone polls always understate Labors vote by 4% vs his face to face polls
NOW , no leaks , we got 3 weeks to sell REEL issues which voters actualy do vote on because they do not vote on leaks at END of th day
ie Swing voters vote on econamy , jobs , education and W/C …all labour plus’s
(and on boats & imigration Labor negs)
So not only in next 3 weeks NON leak period can we win , I think we will with Julia highliting these vote change issues , but it will be so close
@ltep, thats normal, they try and take credit for everything.
But like Howard, they will get sick of Coalition.
Bushfire Bill.. “The lady has style and appeal. That’s what the punters want to see.”
One of my deepest fears is that her initially fetching humour, infecious laugh, the slightly girlish manner used to deflect tough questions, that all of that was appealing to ordinary punters for a nano-second — the fleeting honeymoon period that you missed if you blinked — and that now, it is more like irritating. I hope I’m wrong.
Dee – yep, and said so in the last thread.
What everyone here is overlooking is Gillard’s comment that she has not been showing us the “real Julia” and will now take over her campaign. That resonated 10x more than Abbott’s “no means no” gaffe. People here forget that Gillard is the PRIME MINISTER. She should not be fumbling about and changing tack. If the roles were reversed, and Abbott said “Look, I’ve been contrained by my campaign team, I’m now going to show you the real Tony, the fighter” everyone here would be giving him absolute hell.
[Even more diabolically stupid was flagging the “real” Julia stuff.
Yep, that was pretty weird, and amateurish.]
Gillard should have just announced that she will no longer run a stage managed campaign. On the other hand why make an announcement at all?
Just do it.
Too late to whinge now.
Dee these polls i feel are driven by ratings it seems the tv stations think we will watch them i have never ever know Morgan other years to be employed by tv stations but no one is saying here any more we need pes to tell is that so
perhaps possum has opinion
why in hell would some one go out and do a poll because of what Abbott said yesterday if it wasn’t just for ratting and 600 people so
the next 200 people may have said something totally different.
who knows lets keep carrying on and praying the Australian people are not that silly the actu start their work choices add s next week i think big time
email them like i did and check with them again
i think it was the actu that actually saved the election last time and the howard factor, my hairdresser said exactly this this week and he is not in to blogging etc. he said people in this country would not want w c back and a howard look alike. and have come across that so many times this week.
BUT I AM BECOMING VERY CROSS ABOUT THE LACK OF ADVERTISING BUT THEN LAST NIGHT WE WHERE THE ONLY ONES TO HAVE AN ADD.
Exaclty how I feel In The Know.
[Not expecting an instant turnaround is one thing. But for a poll taken last night, after what was the ALP’s best day for a long time, to show a FALL in 2PP of 3%? Sorry. I can’t even try deluding myself about this situation any longer.]
We knew it was a good day — but we’re tragics. For the ordinary punter, it takes a few days too filter through.
The problem is that Julia Gillard is no leader and never has been. When you watch her on TV she does not cut through. Is she photogenic no, is she pleasing to
the eye no does she grab your imagination no. Sorry to be seen as sexist and trivial but this is how the public thinks and looks at things.
In saying all that i think Labor will just hang on. But if they do not they will split in one hundred bits after the election and why.. how could you lose possibly lose against Abbott…
[Even more diabolically stupid was flagging the “real” Julia stuff.
Yep, that was pretty weird, and amateurish.]
yes thats ok for us to say that but she may have felt so restricted she had tosay
it i dont think that amateruish its just being honest
[“The Liberals made an unwise choice and will live to regret it, Abbott will be divisive and his own party will hate him?”
Is this a cut and paste from 1996 or what?]
I don’t recall Howard making rape “jokes” at press conferences (let alone repeating it four times with deliberate, calculated intent in the direction of a female opponent). I don’t recall him getting about wearing just what amounts to underpants in public, or dissing people as they lay on their deathbed, or beating his chest like a baboon, or referring to senior Shadow Ministers as “girls”, or hectoring young women about virginity, or blabbing to the world about his sex life …
Gillard getting panned for saying ‘better economic plan’ 6 times on ABC one after the other.
Cuppa – Howard was as widely disliked and discredited as Abbott is. And look what happened.
Yup – I’m outta here too. This place used to pride itself on considered analysis of Polls and only ltep was here as a wet blanket. Now ltep is joined by an entire cast of pessimists not supported by the data.
See you on the 22nd with Julia reelected!
Kisses
[ Morgan has perhaps strained credulity in finding the Coalition 0.5 per cent ahead on two-party preferred among women and behind 0.5 per cent among men.]
William is so polite. 🙂
Glory and everybody said why would anyone want to vote for Howie but they ended up doing so because Labor were so terrible in 1996.
I bet the journalists will be looking forward to a crazy roller coaster ride with Madman Abbott as PM rather than boring KR or cool calm JG.
William, a question for you if you’re reading: What do you make of the “Shy Tory Effect” as a general theory, and how big a part do you think it will play in this particular election result?
[In saying all that i think Labor will just hang on. But if they do not they will split in one hundred bits after the election and why.. how could you lose possibly lose against Abbott…]
the media marky and bogans and rich spoilt people i had one very rich person say to me o it does matter who wins we just all go on with things nothing changes.
well i ripped its ok for you u dont have to worry about health education dr and hospitals you can eat where you like go to the hospital you like pay your bills nothing changes for you try telling that to a real person and walked off so its the bogans and the very rich that do not care i am not saying all rich people are like that but some do have agendas of their own re business so that what they think of first so marky thats who vote liberal along with others who remain nameless
Just saw a Labor ad on the economy – facts and figures.
@Tom/83,
The Journalists can blow themselves up, we don’t need them to screw out country up.
Yep Glen. I get baffled by comments like “Australian’s will never ever vote for xxxx as PM”. We have a great track record of electing anyone in order to get rid of someone.
[MALAYSIA said Wednesday it was confident of halting the flow of illegal migrants to Australia, after introducing tough penalties for smugglers using the country as a transit point.
Malaysia can now impose harsh sentences including jail terms of up to 20 years, and fines of up to one million ringgit ($347,230) on people smugglers, under an amendment to human trafficking laws passed on Tuesday.
Last year up to 10,000 migrants from Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Burma and Iraq were said to be massing in Malaysia waiting for passage to Australia by people smugglers.
“We are confident that we will be able to curb boat people from going to Australia,” Muhamad Khair Razman Mohamed Annuar, a senior home ministry official, told a news conference.]
Must have been due to Scott and Tone.
Let’s fact it, gang, it would much betterer fun to diss PM Abbott than PM Gillard.
But it is more a vote against someone than say yes we want Howie more like no we’re sick of you Keating.
Like 2007, we’re sick of you Howie bugger off.
[Glory and everybody said why would anyone want ]
o vote for Howie but they ended up doing so because Labor were so terrible in 1996]
.so glen not sure is that a positive or minus for lab what the story there
i know i cried for day
so are you saying they will vote for julia
I do not take too much notice of such a small sampling, need something bigger than 600 odd,,,incidentally there is still plenty of water to go under the bridge yet….too early to talk result yet…punters are still saying Labor will win.
Encouraging article in the SMH today from of all people Hartcher, he appears to have had a road to Damiscus conversion…
Surplus blunder reveals Coalition’s economic woes
PETER HARTCHER
August 4, 2010
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/surplus-blunder-reveals-coalitions-economic-woes-20100803-115g5.html#poll
Darren Laver
Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 7:12 pm | Permalink
“Yup – I’m outta here too.
See you on the 22nd with Julia reelected! ”
do not let defeatists defeat you
I am not gonna anywhere Just look at my #67 for REASONS to Dee why labor can win , and will
Darren Laver
[Now ltep is joined by an entire cast of pessimists not supported by the data.]
What data would that be Darren?
[If we lose, I want to say a special thanks to the leakers as well. I hope you live with yourself (selves) for the rest of your life (lives0 in that you might have condemned labor for at least two terms of opposition. I would like to know what you would say to all those terrific members, candidates and party members who have been busting their guts out for the last two and a half weeks. You are nothing but gutless low lives. ]
We don’t know for sure it was someone from Labor. Half the population are apparently Liberals, so chances are equal it was one of them. They too (perhaps more than anybody) have a vested interest in Labor being done over and SerfChoices for our grandkids.
Labors’ position in Queensland has not been helped because of Anna Bligh privatisation program which she decided to do straight after the election.
Rudd in my view was boring but he was photogenic and he cut through… and he was a Queenslander.
[Posted Wednesday, August 4, 2010 at 7:14 pm | Permalink
Just saw a Labor ad on the economy – facts and figures.]
yes thats on u tube very good was that about europe and their problems
I’d be seriously tempted to discount these polls except for one reason, the last Australian and American elections, I was a poll skeptic and believed the losing side in saying that they were skewed for one reason or another, however they turned out to be correct.
It doesn’t particularly worry me because in all honesty I can accept either winner in this one, a unique position for me, I like both candidates (OK maybe Julia a tiny bit more on a personal basis), and to be selfish my situation in life is not going to be greatly affected no matter who wins, so for those who it is very important to I’d beware of the polls.
But I would not be surprised at all if they turned around, I just smell controversy somewhere along the line in this one.
The only thing I will say about the Morgan is this: last week they polled people on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, in the middle of the leaks issue, and came out with 53-47 to us. Nielsen polled in exactly the same period and got 48-52. It would suggest that there remain some key statistical discrepancies with some of the polls. I don’t believe that the coalition will get 45% on election day – more like 43 or so. We need to get around 39/40 to stay in the game.
my cousin i qld said anna bligh has handled this election appealingly
Labor need more ads like Bob Katters 😀