The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.
Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.
UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.
[I’m swinging]
Keys on the coffee table?
Andd the OO Speaks:
BH
I suspect that Oakes enjoys high quality policy debate. If that is his bottom line, and he would like to enjoy his declining years a bit more, he should not report election campaigns.
[I’m going to say a return down to 53/47 ALP, Gillard still with a 25+ lead on PPM.]
Probably. And the usual suspects will call it a “rapid drop” in support for Gillard.
Ooh, the unions are buying Masterchef ads.
This one… Tony will cut your hours and sack you. He’s done it before. (Said by older lady)
Ok so will Abbott confident from a solid performance in the debate now front Kerry O’Brien on the 7.30report and blow up because of his overconfidence?
GG I was just making a play on words.
I know Greensborough is next to Watsonia. I could not think of another “W” word to put there. The Growling Frog Golf course is in the region, so I was trying to think of what environmental thing might match, and I thought of Wattle.
[(Said by older lady)]
They never lie Blue so she has to be right 😀
[Only one lib ad so far. They cant be spending up that big.]
There was a buttload of them during the 6 o’clock news timeslot on channel 9…
Even though I hate Tony Abbott, I thought he came across better. Julia’s minder’s correct in avoiding more debates – she looked like she was more defensive. The most fascinating thing for me was the way the worm went up and down with what the MM was saying – if there is anything worth pulling out of this debate for the parties is that the MM looked bad when he panned the government – and did better when he promoted his policies. Result – the Libs need to stay positive!
[There was a buttload of them during the 6 o’clock news timeslot on channel 9…]
I have heard they are expecting 4 million viewers during masterchef compared with around ~1-1.5 million for any one news.
I reckon Masterchef viewers are the ultimate non-politcal swinging voters.
IT she kept saying “I know Tony will say….” that was weak really.
So True:
Independently Thinking,
Which is why the debates are useless as anything more than a PR piece for the two participants. Abbott had all his aggression beaten out of him by his minders and Julia stayed relentlessly on her message of please confirm me in the job. Both sides were trying to keep the worm placated and sedated.
Hardly the forum for a free wheeling discussion about Australia’s future.
Centrebet
Alp $1.22 Lnp $4.10
[IT she kept saying “I know Tony will say….” that was weak really.]
Dont you mean “gutless”?
jenauhor@1557
[Wow!
Dick Smith just SLAMMED the Murdoch press because of its bias! Helen Dalley is having apoplexy!!!!]
– if you’re around. What did Dick Smith say about the Murdoch media and was it on Sky and which program, please.
I’d like to see Gillard counter Abbott’s “We respect the will of the people and therefore won’t be reintroducing Workchoices” by pointing out his absolute obstructionism on all of Labor’s mandated legislation.
If the parliament passes for his version of a citizens assembly, why does he block everything put up by a democratically elected government?
blue_green@2261
I’ll bet all the ad spaces were bought out months in advance before the Election, hence the lack of political ads.
Plus the spots would be hideously expensive as well
[Dont you mean “gutless”?]
Yeah Joff but I am making an effort to use different words 🙂
It’s OK jenauthor – just read further down that page. Thanks
This morning the news readers on Sky were reading out messages from viewers and the only ones I heard were that Sky was biassed towards Labor.
I think they read those to try to make out they are fair and balanced!!
Frank
[I’ll bet all the ad spaces were bought out months in advance before the Election, hence the lack of political ads.
Plus the spots would be hideously expensive as well]
+1 for Julia’s ad (the bland one).
So far thats 1 Libs, 1 unions and 1 ALP.
Tony’s only hope is that Twiggy and that lovely Gina bankroll the coalition directly.
Why can’t I have Arnold Vinick instead of Tony Abbott?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arnold_Vinick
How cost effective ( as a method of reducing carbon dioxide production) is the “clunker for vote” policy.
http://johnquiggin.com/
[Yeah Joff but I am making an effort to use different words]
lol – good for you Glen.
Must admit i have been using bullbutter since the 2007 election.
One of your best ever words 🙂
Fredn
[How cost effective ( as a method of reducing carbon dioxide production) is the “clunker for vote” policy.
http://johnquiggin.com/ ]
My understanding of the cash-for-clunker was that it was brought in in California as an air pollution reduction policy rather than a Greenhouse gas reduction policy.
Older cars are worse air polluters by several orders of magnitudes than newer ones.
[I suspect that Oakes enjoys high quality policy debate. If]
Boerwar – he’s just as a big an old gossip monger as the others nowdays and he has also contributed to the dumb downed attitude of pollies.
Joff I did borrow that from the great pankster from Tusla Oklahoma who created the alter-ego called Roy D. Mercer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceULE61RXgI
Hilarious stuff!
Bullbutter is always good for a Morgan FTF poll that has the Nationals vote on 2% 🙂
The best argument of the night.
“Don’t be fooled by the slogans. I’m going to stop the spending and stop the boats.”
The Sphere if Irrelevence:
Lets face it, unless there is a major stuff up,these debates dont really shift votes! People watch their team. Its spectator sport.
glory,
don’t you mean, “the best great big new argument of the night”…?
Yes, that was a giggle moment with Tone sloganeering about slogans
People are noticing; it really is an election about nothing.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/latham-monsters-them-all-for-their-vacuousness-20100724-10pgo.html?rand=1279979238875
Fredn I have a lot of respect for Mark Latham these days. I mean he has his politics but he’s not afraid of attacking both sides when they deserve it.
Thank goodness there’s only going to be one debate.
Here’s hoping we have none at the next election!
GG
I agree – the debate has been dumbed down for lowest common denominator and the LCD voters were not the ones who were voting. The Presidential campaign we have become does not suit Australia’s system of government or the problems we have to fix.
My stepson who is voting for the first time and is not that politically cluey thought Julia won and that the MM was just trying to one up her.
Amongst the 4 voters in the house, it didn’t change any of our votes.
briefly
[In WA, there are more people who were not born here than were born here. A very great many of us were not born in Australia and I run into them every day]
I was born in WA. But my experience having lived in WA is that those who weren’t born in Aus and immigrated here, resent those who are perceived to be taking a ‘back door’ entry via boatie route.
Oops, though easy to do why typing in To and it comes up with all people starting with the letter A and you unwittingly click on the wrong name.
Glen – and I am sure you love Rudd now too.
Spare us – we don’t all have truthy’s iq here!
[2226
victoria
briefly. Australia has been built on migration over decades, and we are all connected to it in some way. It will not wash with many people.]
I hope you are right, victoria. Laawwwwwwwd, I loathe the Liberals for this kind of stunt.
[blue_green
Posted Sunday, July 25, 2010 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
Fredn
…..
Older cars are worse air polluters by several orders of magnitudes than newer ones.]
It was brought in federally ( USA we are talking here) as a stimulus measure at the depth of the financial crises in an attempt to help stop Chrysler and GM going broke. It did pick up car sales while the money lasted. The deal was you took your car in, they fed it engine destroying goo and you got the money as part of the trade in. The green twist caused a small problem, most of the fuel efficient cats where not built in the USA.
I dont love Rudd.
I do not like the way he was treated by the Party that had him to thank for beating Howard and making him lose his seat.
He deserved better.
You saw it here first: The PM and Mike Kelly at Queanbeyan, after the debate.
[jenauhor@1557
Wow!
Dick Smith just SLAMMED the Murdoch press because of its bias! Helen Dalley is having apoplexy!!!!
– if you’re around. What did Dick Smith say about the Murdoch media and was it on Sky and which program, please.]
Dick was on SKY in the election debate lead-in show. Helen Dalley was askng him about population sustainability because JG has been speaking about it and Dick is against a bigger Australia.
He slammed Murdoch and said we should be like Fiji and kick them out because they are solely for profit and therefore do not promote anything in the country’s best interest. He said pollies cannot say what they really think because they’d be on the front page of every newspaper being attacked by murdoch.
He also said, “I know they own you” to Helen — then when she started to argue he said he meant Sky (she said they half own SKY) but he didn’t back down.
I’ve never actually liked the man (for much the same reason — he used ‘nationalism’ as a way to make profits) but I cheered when he told them to their face, so to speak.
If you have Foxtel/Austar, it’ll probably be repeated on their red button multiview — but maybe not — I doubt they will like having it put to them in such a way.
C’mon fellas, we need debates. Just because that one was BORING, does not mean to say that all future debates will be boring.
They need to change the format. Have your journos asking the questions but get the pollies to argue against each other. They should have controlled BIFFO 😀
Where were you when Rudd was PM and the leadership issue was in the Murdoch press?
Same place as Julie Bishop me thinks!
Adam how bout those Dees???
I was Dee-lighted 🙂
Dick Smith is a knob who made Billiions by importing cheap taiwanese parts and selling them to Australians at ridiculous mark ups. Everytime I hear him talk-up Australian made it makes me vomit.
I am getting truly sick of those who think this election is about nothing because nothing could be further from the truth.
If Labor wins, and the Greens hold the BOP, the next three years are going to be radically different from the last three, where we had Fielding, a somewhat thick denialist, and a social and economic tory, holding the BOP. Put him together with the Coalition and obstruction ruled, OK? This went for all the Senate committees. It went for all the bills the House sent up to the Senate. It went for all the Senate ‘enquiries’.
The difference over the next three years? Fielding is a turkey. He will be gone. The Greens will talk turkey. If the Coalition no longer counts in either the lower house or the upper house they will not longer be able to delay, deny, distract and obstruct.
The gang of denialists that run the parliamentary party will be running an irrelevant rump.
That is what this election is about. It matters.