The good polling news for Labor continues to pile up: the first Nielsen poll of the campaign, unusually published on a Saturday, has Labor with a two-party lead of 54-46, compared with 52-48 a fortnight ago. Labor is up three points on the primary vote to 42 per cent, with the Coalition down one to 41 per cent and the Greens down one to 12 per cent. Among women Labor’s two-party lead is 58-42, compared with 50-50 among men. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is 59 per cent among women, 53 per cent among men and 56 per cent overall, while her disapproval is up a point to 33 per cent. Tony Abbott has an approval rating of 43 per cent and disapproval of 51 per cent, both of which are unchanged. Gillard has a 28-point lead as preferred prime minister among women and a 14-point lead among men, translating to a 21-point lead overall. Labor would be especially pleased to learn that 51 per cent believe Abbott would break his promise not to reintroduce WorkChoices.
Courtesy of The West Australian, we also have Patterson Market Research/Westpoll surveys of four Perth marginal seats conducted from Saturday to Wednesday, each from samples of slightly over 400, which show Labor travelling a lot better than they were in Kevin Rudd’s last days. In Hasluck, earlier thought to be gone for all money, Labor has a two-party lead of 54-46 from primary votes of 47 per cent for Labor, 43 per cent for Liberal and 6 per cent for the Greens. Labor also has its nose in front in Canning, where former state government minister Alannah MacTiernan is challenging sitting member Don Randall. MacTiernan leads 51-49 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 45 per cent Liberal, 44 per cent Labor and 6 per cent Greens. There is better news for the Liberals in the two seats they gained from Labor in 2007. In Cowan, the Liberals hold a two-party lead of 53-47, from primary votes of 51 per cent Liberal, 40 per cent Labor and 7 per cent Greens. In Swan the Liberals lead 52-48 on two-party preferred and 47 per cent to 37 per cent on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10 per cent. The margin of error in any given seat is about 5 per cent; however, pooling the four together halves the margin of error and produces an overall swing to Labor of 1 per cent.
UPDATE: The Illawarra Mercury/IRIS poll from Gilmore mentioned in the previous post turns out to have a sample of 400, and hence a margin of error of a bit under 5 per cent. It gives Liberal member Joanna Gash a hefty primary vote lead of 58 per cent to 31 per cent over Labor candidate Neil Reilly, with the Greens on 11 per cent. This translates into a 60-40 lead on two-party preferred, compared with a 0.4 per cent notional Labor margin after the redistribution.
Dick Smith won’t be on Sky again.
Yes, Glen it was a great day all round – moving forward on all fronts!
OT, but a very good read on the economic trails in the Afghanistan situation. Combines 3 of the big forces: money; drugs; arms
[The United States and the NATO allies are preparing to disengage and soon withdraw from Afghanistan and even the most vocal advocates of the “long-term commitment” do not anticipate more than five years of active US and NATO involvement. All the local key players — in Kabul, Islamabad, and countless tribal and localized foci of power — are cognizant and are already maneuvering and posturing to deal with the new reality.
Irrespective of the political solution and/or compromise which will emerge in Kabul, the US is leaving behind a huge powder keg of global and regional significance with a short fuse burning profusely: namely, the impact of Afghanistan’s growing, expanding and thriving heroin economy…]
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-strategic-ramifications-us-led-withdrawal-afghanistan
[Have your journos asking the questions but get the pollies to argue against each other.]
Yep that wasnt a debate tonight. It was a presser. We want a REAL debate 🙂
I like the format the Dutch had with this election debate between the Dutch Labor Party and the PVV. Talk about in your face 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4fsGv-xXK8
Psephos
Could you provide me with Eden Monaro campaign contact details, pls?
Abbott better than expected but Morgan wormers gave it to Gillard 53/47. How long is it since the PM won the debate
Andrew
Since Rudd beat Abbott in the last one.
Boerwar
<small>Shush. noone is supposed to notice.</small>
Why did the 9 worm score it more convincingly for Gillard? What was different about the wormers?
Regarding the debate, I thought both Gillard and Abbott went well, Abbott better than I exected. The moderation was fair althugh Abbott was allowed to speak too long in closing. The only weak performance was from Malcom Farr, who seemed to have nothing meaningful to ask. Why couldn’t we have Oakes, Grattan or Bongiorno on the panel instead of him???
As for issues, my perception was as follows:
– Gillard did not talk up the government’s economic performance enough, or counter Abbott when he said nonsense like “debt is a problem”. It isn’t. Reassure people – we are fine. The government has met all its targets. Debt is lower than forecast in the budget last year.
– When Gillard mentioned the talkfest on cliamte change, it was a negative reaction. She got a positive reaction for listing the actions.
– When Abbott talked down the schools investment, he got a negative reaction. Most people obviously like the BER program.
Both leaders got bad reactions when they went too negative. They should remember that.
Overall neither did badly, but I thought it was a draw (even slight Abbott win) because Gillard wasn’t positive enough about the Govenment’s record, or mention the coalition’s incredible negativity in the Senate. Gillard could have won if she hit those points. Workchoices was good but one card isn’t enough to win a one hour debate.
I’m surprised the Rudd martyr cult haven’t shown up yet to claim the Rudd would’ve kicked butt tonight and brought the polls up to a 67-33 lead…
boerwar, i meant an election debate.
Andrew,
during the health debate the 7 worm was done by Morgan and included a representative cross section of the community.
The nine one was a bunch of swingers (ie people who have said they are undecidided). I am not sure if this was the same for tonights debate.
Ask Possum.
The Hon Dr Mike Kelly AM, MP
Queanbeyan Office:
Location:
Shop 7, Citylink Plaza
24-36 Morisset Street
Queanbeyan NSW 2620
Postal Address:
PO Box 214
Queanbeyan NSW 2620
Tel: (02) 6284 2211
Fax: (02) 6284 2250
[I’m surprised the Rudd martyr cult haven’t shown up yet to claim the Rudd would’ve kicked butt tonight and brought the polls up to a 67-33 lead]
Thomas was around earlier. I’m not sure what he said because I did the usual scroll past.
Andrew
no worries. good opportunity for venting.
Psephos
ta
Boerwar, I thinks it’s very important for the long term future of the Lliberals and consequently the future of parliamentary democracy. I think the short term effects will be negligible.
labor has moved about as far to right as they are going to go, the Libs however are at a real crossroads. If Abbott wins we go screaming to the right and with the media situation as we have it the MSM will follow
Itep,
Is there really a rudd martyr cult and how does one sign-up?
Socrates, I broadly agree with your analysis. Abbott did better than I expected. He dropped no clangers. He had obviously been coached to avoid aggression, and that worked. I agree that Gillard could have been more forceful. Farr is a tool. The others including Speers were fair enough. I agreed with the worm that there was very little to get get excited about in either direction. The only thing that struck me as interesting was the gender split when Gillard talked about being humane to boaties. Women agreed, men disagreed. Unpleasant though it is, Truthy does speak for many men on this issue. But there are more women voters than men. We do need to remember that not many floaters will have been watching, and that it’ll all be forgotten by Wednesday.
Socratease: Were we watching the same program?
Good sign if Gillard did better with swingers (Ch 9) than a sample (Ch 7)
My God, I weep for our nation if MasterChef is the most popular show on TV.
I have just watched 45 minutes of the most vapid, vacuous, turgid, tawdry load of banality i think I have ever had the misfortune to have seen…..
oh wait, sorry, it was a replay of the debate I was watching……….
I watched the boy worm and girl worm on channel 9. I’m very surprised the worms gave it to Julia so convincingly because it appeared the worms were up for Abbott on more occasions.
Maybe the twisting knob worm is more effective reflecting the audience than the push button worm?
I would have scored it 56/44 to Julia. Abbott was saved by the format!
What a terrible debate, it was the only debate in my memory that I didn’t watch to the end. Jullia Gillard was like a well oiled, well programmed robot. Abbot was slightly more human but lets be honest, his policies suck.
The only people that would have “got off” on this so called debate would have been the Labor and Liberal faithfull. I think the majority of us in voterland just switched off.
If Abbott loses the the Libs will reform in a way that will make it much harder to go feral for quite some time.
What chance a post-election Turnbull-lead opposition will again negotiate with Labor to water-down any Greens-amended proposals?
[Personally I like Julia’s message heaps more – but it looks like Tony’s message went down well with his supporters.]
yes i am bemused as to what pbs wanted
We are talking about a lady here not a man to man thing Julia did fine and was a lady
ge over it. she only anwered the questions she was givien very poor choice of question i would say.
Nothing to realy get your teeth in to. The people where the loosers we need to have better questions.
And boerwar i glimsed somewhere that you are sick of people saying this is an election about nothing i so agree with you its the most important election we have ever had in the country
the alternative is scary.
I hope the chances are good Drake.
[My God, I weep for our nation if MasterChef is the most popular show on TV.]
Better than “What Business Does This Darkie Have Coming Here?” aka Border Security being at number 1…
Drake, ask Thomas Paine, he’s the high priestess of the Rudd martyr cult!
Mick S, this was the most scripted debate I can remember. Abbott needed it to stop him being impulsive, but Gillard looked too robotic
[If Abbott loses the the Libs will reform]
That was promised if Howard lost last time but we have yet to see any reform.
#2206 MM
Hear hear, as a left leaning greeenie I would have to say Glen is the most balenced and objective contributer to this fine blog.
What’s immigration ever done for Australia?
Adam Liaw…
[having completed Year 11 at just 14-years-old, enrolled in university at age 16 and a lawyer at 21]
And draws millions more viewer than prospective PMs as he wins Masterchef
[The only people that would have “got off” on this so called debate would have been the Labor and Liberal faithfull. ]
No, even we thought it was dull. But the number one priority in these debates is to commit no gaffes. In fact there is virtually no other priority. Dull is fine, provided there are no “PM debate gaffe shock horror” stories tomorrow.
[The only people that would have “got off” on this so called debate would have been the Labor and Liberal faithfull. I think the majority of us in voterland just switched off.\]
i think you should address this to the fact that the questions where not ones you could actully get your teeth in to where they.
geezlouise
Assuming they lose this election, not foregone by any means, IMHO, they will be left with major and fundamental policy dilemmas which split the parliamentary party. Climate change is the most obvious. The role of government in relation to the economy is another. IR is another. The likelihood that the parliamentary rump will still be ruled by denialists is a major, major problem for them. Still, if the Greens hold the BOP, the coalition will be able to have a holiday from obstructing, distracting, denying, delaying, defying and destroying.
They might even use the three years to develop some carefully considered policies.
[I think the majority of us in voterland just switched off.]
I zoned out and I am a political tragic.
This debate will have very little effect on the election…
[Better than “What Business Does This Darkie Have Coming Here?” aka Border Security being at number 1…]
Crass, Pebbles, crass.
I would agree that what Abbott said about the economy (debt) and boat arrivals was utter rubbish. But it was delivered convincingly and nobody countered it, hence he didn’t lose points for it.
Gillard went well, though without a lot of passion, and I felt she mmissed opportunities to attack. She came across as very reasonable, but frankly, so did Abbott.
[No, even we thought it was dull. But the number one priority in these debates is to commit no gaffes. In fact there is virtually no other priority. Dull is fine, provided there are no “PM debate gaffe shock horror” stories tomorrow.]
Julia is not silly she would of thought this through and she know what she is dealing with.
Other wise it would of been for example woman cannot control their emotions
woman cannot stand up for themselves woman are what ever. No on message .
no screaming headlines
No she did very well under the circumstances what i want is a debate with ministers where the questions have to be on the ministry the journalists then have to ask questions related to each portfolio .
go the dees and Julia
[balanced and objective contributer to this fine blog.]
Given my past I dont think I am MS but I do thankyou for enjoying what I sometimes have to contribute.
The more people who can point out where ‘their’ side has failed or needs improving the better. Who wants a blog full of kool-aid drinkers??
[If Abbott loses the the Libs will reform]
So will many a moderate Liberal will lose should Abbott be smashed and Labor win 100 seats. I doubt any reform would take place then.
Except the establishment of a New political party.
Nice ad.
https://www.getup.org.au/campaign/ClimateActionNow&id=1227
Glen is neither balanced nor objective.
He just looks that way compared to the other two Tories on this blog (GP and TTH) who are as mad as a bucket of frogs…
Centre
The worm ‘score’ was not tallied by some cumulative arithmatic. It was a straight question to the worm burners. ‘Who won the debate?’ Given where I thought the worms had been for most of the debate, I was very suprised at the outcome. I did notice that Gillard’s worms tended to climb a little towards the end of her answers and Abbott’s the reverse, so last impressions may have been what stuck in the minds of the wormburners.
Darren,
Thanks for the tip. Sounds a bit spooky – I think I’ll give it a miss.
Oh and by the way, I have now shaken hands with five Labor Prime Ministers. Can anyone top that? (Ben Chifley died in 1951, so it’ll be hard.)
[Better than “What Business Does This Darkie Have Coming Here?” aka Border Security being at number 1…
Crass, Pebbles, crass.]
Maybe so but TSOP is probably correct. Noughties version of “Love thy Neighbour”
And yes I plead guilty to being a political tragic. I don’t think I have too much to fear from being stoned by any non-tragics that may be present here though. Why else would we be here? 🙂