With just 31 days left to go:
• Two pieces of polling intelligence have emerged today on what appears to be a widening electoral gender gap. The Australian reports the weekend’s 55-45 Newspoll had Labor leading 44 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote among women, but trailing 39 per cent to 42 per cent among men. We are also told that the gender gap in Tony Abbott’s personal rating is now at nine points, up from four in April. As George Megalogenis noted last week, this is likely to hit the Liberals in seats with a high concentration of working women, of which Cameron Stewart of The Australian identifies four: Bennelong, Franklin, Brisbane and Deakin. The Herald-Sun also reports that the weekend’s 50-50 Galaxy poll had Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead at 58-31 among women and 51-40 among men.
• The Herald Sun further informs us that 59 per cent of respondents from the Galaxy survey supported a levy on bank profits similar to that of the mining tax, not that either party is advocating such a thing. Only 28 per cent of respondents said they were opposed.
• Leisa Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that Jen Sackley, unsuccessful LNP preselection hopeful for Leichhardt, will run as an independent. Sackley has complained of a “bullying culture” in the party, and proclaimed Labor’s Leichhardt MP Jim Turnour to be of superior “stature” to Warren Entsch, the former Liberal member who is coming out of retirement to run again for the LNP.
• Possum calculates the electoral impact of Labor’s decision to lock in an election date that gave voters only one weekday to get their enrolment in order. This is found to be in the order of fractions of 0.1 per cent, but might be a bit higher in seats with a particularly high concentration of young voters. The most marginal of these are identified as Melbourne, Ryan, Swan, Herbert, Macarthur, Solomon and Cowan.
• Verona Burgess of the Australian Financial Review notes the electoral impact of public service cuts not just on the Australian Capital Territory, where they might make life difficult for Liberal Senator Gary Humphries, but also in Eden-Monaro. As well as housing many of Canberra’s public servants in Queanbeyan, the famous bellwether electorate also encompasses Batemans Bay on the south coast, which Burgess tells us is known as “little Canberra-by-the-sea” due to its concentration of public agencies.
• Three cheers to Matthew Landauer of the Open Australia Foundation for instigating the most excellent ElectionLeaflets.org.au site, a repository for user-contributed scans and photos of electoral material.
Craig Emerson on Sky Agenda. LNP in Qld are supporting of NBN, contradicting Libs policy to scrap it.
Great post Bushfire Bill @ 183.
I always enjoy reading your stuff. Are you a journo?
[ I think that it’s disgraceful Rudd is going to an election when he has no plan to serve the full term. ]
As I recall, there was an exodus of Coalition members after the 2007 defeat: Downer, Costello, McGauran, Nelson, Vaile. Of course, you were just as disgusted and appalled when these fellows declined to serve a full time.
[For his own health’s sake and the country’s political health, I think the coup – as ugly and brutal as it was – was a necessary thing to happen. Rudd is better for it and we are better for it. He’s got a great future and a great past, but Kevin needs to learn to take it easier than he’s been doing.]
BushfireB@183 – thanks for that post. You’ve put our disappointment in its proper place and I think you’re right about Kevin’s health. When he got back from Copenhagen he just seemed to have had the light knocked out of him. He is an intelligent and compassionate man with a great wife and kids behind him. He’ll make his mark again and I hope it is the UN or something similar.
The media are so vain in thinking they should pursue him at every turn now.
TTH the senator wants to let you know that you are pulling off the ‘swinging voter concerned with Labor’s policies’ act very adeptly. Keep going, you’re converting the other swinging voters on Pollbludger with gusto. Your role in the election of the Abbott Government will be rewarded.
No.
[Lib Campaign HQ finally set up. Their campaign spokesman is Andrew Robb. #ausvotes]
How exciting – we get the morbid Mr Robb to delight us every day.
That’s how I feel sometimes too ShowsOn.
BH Thank goodness the Libs weren’t in power when GFC hit. If decision making about GFC is reflected in Lib Campaign HQ being set up, we would have been stuffed!
[Rudd has issued a statement committing to serving the full term, and outlining what would be required from him for the UN position. looks like it’s only a few meetings a year, and he intends on staying in parliament.
End of beat up.]
Was out walking the and i thought i bet that Kev will say something and i bet this the abc big neeeeeeewwww story on the staff abc show.
Good on you Kev .Does any one else think this is their story.
my say. not sure. There are rumblings with Mining Companies, in particular, Andrew Forrest/Fortescue
is it just me, or are others uneasy that the campaign has been “suspended” for this poor soldiers funeral… except both leaders are attending… which is kinda of a creepy form of campaigning in its own right…
[Kevin Rudd says if he took a UN job it would not require a move to New York, just a few meetings per year so he could remain l]
http://twitter.com/stefaniebalogh
Perhaps.
ho hum…fool me once, shame on me…
[Small and medium miners, including Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group, are considering restarting the advertising campaign against the government’s mining tax.
Mr Forrest, the chief executive of Fortescue, has told a teleconference in Perth this morning, his company and its counterparts not only remain opposed to the tax, but they now hold grave fears because the Greens may win the balance of power in the Senate.
The Greens leader, Bob Brown, said yesterday that if his party does win Senate control, it would push the government to strengthen the tax which is slated to make $10.5 billion in revenue in its first two years]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/twiggy-leads-miners-rebellion-against-gillard-20100722-10m0o.html
[Great post Bushfire Bill @ 183.
I always enjoy reading your stuff. Are you a journo]
I doubt it / great piece of writing bushfire
Laocoon… i’m not sure they’ll be able to muster the same level of community support this time round… in fact it could backfire spectacularly.
[The Greens leader, Bob Brown, said yesterday that if his party does win Senate control, it would push the government to strengthen the tax which is slated to make $10.5 billion in revenue in its first two years]
some one should tell him bob can push all he likes there has to be legislation frist
is that correct,
Laocoon. Andrew Forrest is trying to bully the Greens by threatening to restart advertising campaign against Mining tax.
[Craig Emerson on Sky Agenda. LNP in Qld are supporting of NBN, contradicting Libs policy to scrap it.]
Victoria – that’s interesting because the Nationals are opposing Abbott’s PPL and was confirmed at their recent conference. Looks like some nice fights happening if the Coalition win government.
victoria @ 148
[my say. He quoted, The Courier Mail, The Daily Telegraph, The Australian, and the Herald Sun. All the online polls that ask who would you vote for, have Abbott leading at least 65/35%. This gentleman that called talkback radio is convinced that based on that, Abbott will win comfortably!]
As we all know, these newspaper online polls are worthless as a valid indicator of actual voting intention, reflecting as they do only the opinions of the reactionary people viewing these right wing rags.
I have seen polling results deriving from an omnibus survey conducted by my research organisation on Monday through to yesterday based on 1,050 nationally representative surveys, through our managed online panel that shows the TPP results at 53% to 47% to the ALP, consistent with the other published opinion polls, In addition, on a larger sample of 1,600 asked the question of who they think will now win the election and form the next Government, the results are even more stark, with 68% or these respondents believing that the ALP will now win the election on August 21st.
I am sure talkback radio is rabid with Tony Abbott fever, but this affliction won’t translate into votes on polling day, at least not enough to win the election.
[Kevin Rudd says if he took a UN job it would not require a move to New York, just a few meetings per year so he could remain ]
you know i think their family ties are to important to them to move any way.
BH it would appear that the coalition is not behaving quite so co-operatively?
middle man
I agree with you; think they will be seen as greedy, self righteous etc etc etc
There won’t be a fight because:
1) Abbott’s PPL scheme is all smoke and mirrors; and/or
2) The Nationals always roll over to the Libs when in Government.
[at 53% to 47% to the ALP, consistent with the other published opinion polls, In addition, on a larger sample of 1,600 asked the question of who they think will now win the election and form the next Government, the results are even more stark, with 68% or these respondents believing that the ALP will now win the election on August 21st.]
thank you for that reassurance,
[Victoria – that’s interesting because the Nationals are opposing Abbott’s PPL and was confirmed at their recent conference. Looks like some nice fights happening if the Coalition win government.]
Also, where does the National Party and the LNP stand on the Murray Darling referendum? I thought at least one and perhaps both opposed it.
This is a problem with these 3 party coalitions – so hard to keep them together…
So some mining companies have twigged that the Greens would have them pay more, and are trying to wedge the government into returning to negotiating with them. I’d love to say I had sympathy for them, but after the way they behaved with the original negotiations, I think they deserve what they are getting now.
The Big Ship@228.
Yes, talkback radio is rabid with Abbott supporters. It is entertaining to hear what they have to say. Unfortunately, many people are so ill informed that they say they oppose Labor because of a certain policy, which turns out to be a liberal one! What hope do we have?
How can a caretaker Govt negotiate with Twiglet in an election campaign?
#219 Victoria
This will HELP the Greens.
Love it!
The miners are now reaping the whirlwind.
They did their best to get rid of Rudd, so well in fact that they got GIllard instead, who did a deal with them. Now that it looks like Labor will be re-elected, and the Greens have most probably will have the BOP, la merde a frappé le ventilateur. They’ve just woken up to the reality that a Green World is a world of pain for them.
The bet the farm and they lost.
Laocoon.@227. I don’t know their position of the Murray Darling situation.
[End of beat up.]
Whoa. Not so fast. Who do you believe on Rudd’s future: Rudd or TTH?
Possibly.
excellent point rua
[So some mining companies have twigged that the Greens would have them pay more]
And wait to the ETS Mark II comes along: Liberals+Big Dirt+CFMEU versus Labor+Greens…hahaha
Big Ship – are you guys publishing that anywhere?
Whom do you believe. 😳
[Every weekend, and indeed for all the weeks that parliament is in recess, the politicians themselves leave the city, to spend days and evenings and weekends without number directly communicating with the folk who elect them. There’s nothing remote about their jobs. But the ministers, and their political staffs, stay behind, running the country, working ungodly hours, while the journalists who report on them patrol those grandiose corridors, and drink coffee with them at Ozzies, and everyone obsessively speculates about what ‘the punters’ out there are thinking.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/22/2960732.htm?site=thedrum
Another good piece by Jonathan Holmes about groupthink in the Canberra ‘beltwy’
[The UN job under consideration would not require him to move abroad or impede his ability to serve as a minister in a re-elected Labor government, the statement said.]
Could he be Foreign Affairs Minister and also take a UN job? Wouldn’t there be a conflict of interest?
Henry @ 202
[I always enjoy reading your stuff. Are you a journo?]
Good Grief, don’t cast that sort of aspersion on BB! He is much classier than a mere ‘journalist’
[Could he be Foreign Affairs Minister and also take a UN job? Wouldn’t there be a conflict of interest?]
who cares it will all come out in the wash , i am just wondering is this the abc big strory any thoughts
Maybe
#200 briefly,
The fact is that many Labor voters, over the last 10-15 years have drifted over to the Greens. Does the Labor party have some sort of strategy to win these voters back? It is all very well to diss the Greens but many of these ‘lefties’ are deep down Labor voters that have become disillusioned.
[Could he be Foreign Affairs Minister and also take a UN job? Wouldn’t there be a conflict of interest?]
Maybe he will be the new Wongster? Letting Penny get to grips with something else?
The President of Nauru is on the radio trying to insert himself into the Australian election campaign. He reckons Julia should have spoken with him and has repeated his comments from a couple of weeks ago that he would be happy to sign to UN Charter on Refugees if that would help get the processing centre back on Nauru.
Left unsaid – and unasked by any journalist as far as I can see – why not sign the Charter anyway? If he believes in it and if he was serious about his offer, shouldn’t he have done this two weeks ago and THEN returned to the table saying, “See? I’ve done it! Now, let’s talk …”
Yet he is still just promising to “be prepared” to do it. Julia’s right on this one. Nauru is the absolute last resort.
middleman@212. If JG and TA didn’t attend funeral, it would have been seen as disrespectful. On a side note, the leaders only attend if the family of the soldier request it.
#232, BB
Love it!
Delicious isn’t it 😉
One could say the mining companies have dug a big hole for ’emselves
🙂
#244 – I think its more accurate to say that the Greens have benefitted more from the collapse of the Aust Democrats than they have from disaffected ALP voters.