With just 31 days left to go:
• Two pieces of polling intelligence have emerged today on what appears to be a widening electoral gender gap. The Australian reports the weekend’s 55-45 Newspoll had Labor leading 44 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote among women, but trailing 39 per cent to 42 per cent among men. We are also told that the gender gap in Tony Abbott’s personal rating is now at nine points, up from four in April. As George Megalogenis noted last week, this is likely to hit the Liberals in seats with a high concentration of working women, of which Cameron Stewart of The Australian identifies four: Bennelong, Franklin, Brisbane and Deakin. The Herald-Sun also reports that the weekend’s 50-50 Galaxy poll had Julia Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead at 58-31 among women and 51-40 among men.
• The Herald Sun further informs us that 59 per cent of respondents from the Galaxy survey supported a levy on bank profits similar to that of the mining tax, not that either party is advocating such a thing. Only 28 per cent of respondents said they were opposed.
• Leisa Scott of the Courier-Mail reports that Jen Sackley, unsuccessful LNP preselection hopeful for Leichhardt, will run as an independent. Sackley has complained of a “bullying culture” in the party, and proclaimed Labor’s Leichhardt MP Jim Turnour to be of superior “stature” to Warren Entsch, the former Liberal member who is coming out of retirement to run again for the LNP.
• Possum calculates the electoral impact of Labor’s decision to lock in an election date that gave voters only one weekday to get their enrolment in order. This is found to be in the order of fractions of 0.1 per cent, but might be a bit higher in seats with a particularly high concentration of young voters. The most marginal of these are identified as Melbourne, Ryan, Swan, Herbert, Macarthur, Solomon and Cowan.
• Verona Burgess of the Australian Financial Review notes the electoral impact of public service cuts not just on the Australian Capital Territory, where they might make life difficult for Liberal Senator Gary Humphries, but also in Eden-Monaro. As well as housing many of Canberra’s public servants in Queanbeyan, the famous bellwether electorate also encompasses Batemans Bay on the south coast, which Burgess tells us is known as “little Canberra-by-the-sea” due to its concentration of public agencies.
• Three cheers to Matthew Landauer of the Open Australia Foundation for instigating the most excellent ElectionLeaflets.org.au site, a repository for user-contributed scans and photos of electoral material.
jv, you also ignore the fact that all political parties ‘shelve’ or don’t refer to policies that might damage them electorally. For instance, the Greens refer to ‘feel good’ policies during the campaign, such as policies on bank fees etc. rather than discussing policies in the area of (for instance) drugs. This is because the Greens want to secure the best votes so they can influence policy on a range of issues across the board.
This really is no different to what Labor or Liberal try to achieve. They try and limit discussion of problem policy areas so they can implement policies, across the board, which they believe are for the best interests of the country.
[All their polls show Abbott winning 65-35%.]
That’s funny, 65/35 is basically Gillard’s preferred PM lead.
I’ve seen a few comments on other blogs where people have been convinced that the online polls in papers are a much better reflection of reality than the likes of Newspoll, Galaxy, Morgan, Essential, and Nielsen.
Its bunk, but its still an impression that is seemingly held by and tossed around quite a bit.
Anyone know what and when the next poll releases are likely to be? Are the pollsters out there during the week or do they pretty much restrict their polling to the weekends?
[ Hungry jacks is a pretty cheap meal. ]
No it’s not really, firstly you can make a healthy meal for $10, and secondly bad dietry habits are hugely expensive in the long run. If bad food costs more you can either go hungry or eat good food. Good food should be cheaper, bad food should cost more.
#111 Briefly
Why can’t the Left criticize the ALP? Yeah the Liberals are a bunch of knuckleheads and luddites and I certainly don’t want to see Abbott in the Lodge but on the other hand if something the ALP does pisses me off I will criticise it.
Constructive criticism can be helpful; blind adherence to stated policy is not for everyone.
Jon. Yes, takeaway cheap meals, end up costing dearly in the long run.
AFR’s election gossip column (if one can distinguish it from the rest of the election coverage) has an interesting comparison of organisation, professionalism, enthusiasm, commitment, what you will:
[By 3pm, Labor had put out 29 campaign releases but the Libs had put out one press release and two transcripts.
An no-one had checked the press release properly. “This funding will be provided from the nearly $X billion…]
A fruit salad is much cheaper to make than buying a Whopper with fries.
Speculation now that K Rudd has been offered senior role with UN. What are the implications?
#159 Victoria,
It’s a beat up.
Mick S. hope that you are right.
The Murdoch press hopes that just keeping Rudd’s name in the news, whatever he does, or even if he does nothing, will damage the Labor campaign.
Boatpeople rush to get into Australia before Abbott has a chance of being elected.
So much for those Push Factors the left keep spruiking. Toughen the borders, and you will stop the boats, it’s as simple as that.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/boat-rush-blamed-on-electionl-fears/story-fn59niix-1225895307662
[ASYLUM-SEEKERS in Indonesia are scrambling to get to Australia before the federal election, the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre says.
Residents of Christmas Island woke yesterday to find the 80th asylum boat this year in Flying Fish Cove, a narrow 15m wooden vessel packed with 43 people on board. By afternoon another vessel — the 81st — had arrived, carrying another 46 people.
The passengers were from several countries, including Iran; among them was a girl aged three.
Pamela Curr, of the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre, predicted the number of boats arriving would increase in coming weeks because asylum-seekers were panicked by the prospect of being towed back to Indonesia if Tony Abbott were to become prime minister.
She said people were getting on any boat they could.
“I have spoken to people who say we have got to come now before Australia closes the door,” she said.
“They fear Australia is about to lock all the doors and windows and they will never get in.”]
People smugglers will be praying day and night that a Gillard Labor Government wins the election.
maybe he’s going to be Australia’s Global Climate Change Ambassador or some such… that way JG can say we aren’t going to bring in an ETS until something more happens at an international level, and on that front Kevvie is our man to push it.
victoria: it’s just another way for the Liberals and their media shills to try to undermine the Labor campaign.
[Speculation now that K Rudd has been offered senior role with UN. What are the implications?]
For the country? Not much.
For the punters of Griffith who are about to be conned into voting for a 1 month member, pretty pieved off I would think.
Rudd should bail out now, not AFTER the election. It’s the only moral thing to do.
TTH:
[Boatpeople…]
Next post please.
I would have thought so too. The media are loving Ruddy at the moment and they are obsessed with this idea that his mere presence will cost Labor votes.
I doubt this. I think the main people who feel sorry for Rudd are:
a) Labor loyalists who loved him as PM. They will still vote Labor.
b) Green voters who are disgusted at the cut throat nature of centrist politics. They will vote green but would have anyway. Actually, the net effect of the Gillard leadership coup has been an increase in the Labor vote at the expense of the Greens.
c)Tories, who don’t really feel sorry for him but see some sort of political mileage out it. Dare I say that any Tory voter who says they are disgusted by Rudds ousting would not have voted for him in the first place, and probably didn’t in 07 either.
If you actually read the press articles on the Rudd/UN stuff, it sounds like the media are asking questions and everyone in the know is denying it.
So, naturally, the write up the story anyway to make it sound like it’s true, rather than merely speculation.
mate they dont even know who Tony is.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/desperate-cry-out-for-a-solution-20100709-10425.html
TTH, i’m in Griffith and no we wouldn’t be pevved off. You forget that its the party’s platform that attracts people. Sure some individuals are more liked than others, but it is ultimately about the party. I know that if Rudd were replaced it would be by someone who shares the commn beliefs of the part i voted for.
is any one else having trouble with the site when i post a comment it goes to cannnot be found am i banned
my say, i’ve been having issues with it too.
We had a brief problem earlier which seems to have fixed itself. I’m also having email trouble on my end, so sorry to those who wrote me who haven’t had a response.
Me too.
Thank you william
ok now
I didn’t know Poll Bludger had a search facility until the brief problem.
Sky news has just reported that miners are not happy with greens policies, and that there may be advertising against the tax as early as this weekend. Am I missing something?
[133
triton
Sky news trotting out Mark Latham to criticise the government]
This can only help the Government. Mark Latham has no credibility whatsoever.
We buy our meat in bulk re hind qurter last us 7 months with just the two of us and fish chicken eggs and our own vegs it works out to 350 dollars so divided that by 7 and then half that for the amount each.
good value i think and we buy fish off the wharf scollops and trevally around 29 dollars a kilo for treats
Psephos What we need to happen to diffuse the Rudd factor?
Long term, he just gets to be UN Secretary General (which is what he’s always been after according to the the wingnut World Government types) earlier than we thought he would.
As for this election? Zilch.
Incidentally, he was his old self yesterday, the Kevin Rudd of old. Such a pity for him that he lost his mojo in the middle there for a while, and lost the leadership because of that. He’s a very talented bloke but apparently needs to delegate more, because it not only gets the underlings offside (many of them extremely talented in their own right), but slows down the whole process.
Without the break to relax (if you can call two or three weeks in America at conferences “relaxing”!) he’d have been on the hustings answering all the dumb, irrelevant questions the Coalition had saved up for just this occasion and fed to the sycophants in the media. the grumblings from inside Labor would have been hard to plug, and journos would have been getting feeds from the party room about how Rudd was disliked by the caucus. Gillard would have been incessantly asked about her leadership ambitions, drowning out nearly everything else, and I think the campaign would have been going a lot worse than it is.
Instead we have an Opposition still opposing, still playing political games like it’s just another day catcalling during Question Time, still just asserting they’re lower on interest rates, lower on deficits, cutting everything in sight, putting a wrecking ball through Australia’s future, still fighting a guerilla war when they’re up against an army of professionals, deprived of their whipping boy with a PM who’s twice as popular as her opponent and ten times as capable (although Rudd was at least that, too, compared to Abbott)…. and Labor’s campaign is hurtling along at a great pace.
Although saddened by Rudd’s recent political demise, I’ve been convinced he did get a fair go, but refused to amend his leadership manner and way of dealing with subordinates to the satisfaction of the party. Further, I think he’d lost his way, probably through over-work and stress and I could see no lightening of the load in the offing any time soon.
What did it for me was his telling David Marr that, faced with mounting pressures he’d “just have to work harder”. This was also Howard’s line (and a few others’ I could mention from history) just before their worlds caved in. They convinced themselves that sleeping less, working their troops harder, being more and more maniacal and straight-jacketed in their approach would overcome all obstacles, resulting in glorious victory. Many times it does this, true, but I think Rudd had lost it. In fact, I suspect he’d had a sort of nervous breakdown in office, a slow, smouldering one, where he started seeing gremlins and ghosts everywhere. The more he tried to cover all bases the more convoluted his language became, the more he was mocked, the more he dug himself deeper into a mess.
For his own health’s sake and the country’s political health, I think the coup – as ugly and brutal as it was – was a necessary thing to happen. Rudd is better for it and we are better for it. He’s got a great future and a great past, but Kevin needs to learn to take it easier than he’s been doing.
Tomorrow is another day, after all.
[TTH, i’m in Griffith and no we wouldn’t be pevved off. You forget that its the party’s platform that attracts people. Sure some individuals are more liked than others, but it is ultimately about the party. I know that if Rudd were replaced it would be by someone who shares the commn beliefs of the part i voted for.]
When you vote, you are voting for your local member.
If Rudd takes his U.N job and resigns that forces another expensive bi-election. I think that it’s disgraceful Rudd is going to an election when he has no plan to serve the full term.
my say. It would appear you do pretty well with your food budget.
ABC News has just a story of Rudd confirming and approach from the UN … the important part was that it would involve a minor commitment of his time, he would not have to move anywhere and would continue to be MP for Griffith while holding that position.
Non-story. Wonder where the Libs will go from here?
Rudd has issued a statement committing to serving the full term, and outlining what would be required from him for the UN position. looks like it’s only a few meetings a year, and he intends on staying in parliament.
End of beat up.
*an approach
snap, confessions 😉
If Rudd were to stay on the backbench for the rest of his political career, is he still entitled to ex-Prime Minister benefits in retirement?
Day 5 and TTH hasn’t accepted reality.
I think it’s disgusting that people just make things up then pretend they aren’t a liar.
[If Rudd were to stay on the backbench for the rest of his political career, is he still entitled to ex-Prime Minister benefits in retirement?]
Yes.
William, and all the PBers who keep the sane and informative commentary going (bar TTH who really belongs in the Murdoch blogs for the quality and rationality of his commentary) – a big thank you for keeping us balanced and thinking of what’s really important, something which the MSM have well and truly abandoned and replaced with endlessly adolescent antics and smart-ar@ed junk.
Truthy
[For the punters of Griffith who are about to be conned into voting for a 1 month member, pretty pieved off I would think.
Rudd should bail out now, not AFTER the election. It’s the only moral thing to do.]
Does that apply to any of the coalitions large number of over 50 bench warmers? Rudd’s position is only a concern if an unsubstantiated rumour is corrrect; he is not old. The coalition have a few approaching retirement age, some who never even made minister under ten years of Howard, who still say they’ll serve the full three years. Do you believe them?
Mick S @ 110
[In a fair electoral system 13% of the vote would translate into 13% of seats in parlianment.]
That is a recipe for legislative gridlock and unstable Government. The result of such a system in the people’s house (our House of Reps) would be months spent in negotiations with minor parties to see which of the major parties could stitch together a coalition that can command a majority on the floor of the House without falling over at the first sign of dissension or disagreement, then a constant ebbing and flowing of ongoing negotiations with these same one issue, or minor parties on every piece of legislation, with the everpresent danger of a vote of no confidence sending all parties back to the ‘let’s see who can form a majority now’ table, or, as happens in other countries who endure this system, back to another election to see if the results can be changed, or worse still, a military or oligarchy coup to impose ‘order’ but actually to destroy democratic rule.
It does not work in practice, at least as far as providing stable and enduring Governments, and does not advance the causes of reform because human nature over-rides good sense and good public policy, and the parties, small and large, end up in warring camps bickering over the most arcane and insignificant issues – a tyranny of the minority.
Our constitutional system may not be perfect, but our democracy is the envy of many nations condemned to endure such endless political upheaval and legislative inertia as your utopian ideal delivers.
Touche, autocrat! 😀
Hence, you voted Labor at the last election because Howard wasn’t going to go the full term…
SNIP: Abusive comment deleted – The Management.
[155
Mick S
#111 Briefly
Criticisms of the ALP from the self-styled purists of the left may kindle the warm inner glow of righteous indignation, but they are quite misguided. They would be better directed at the cynicism and incompetence of the Liberals, who lie, distort, disrupt and obstruct as a matter of daily life.
Why can’t the Left criticize the ALP? Yeah the Liberals are a bunch of knuckleheads and luddites and I certainly don’t want to see Abbott in the Lodge but on the other hand if something the ALP does pisses me off I will criticise it.
Constructive criticism can be helpful; blind adherence to stated policy is not for everyone.]
I agree, Mick. I have been a critic of Labor’s position on the CPRS and RSPT, and have been rebuked by all and sundry, especially in relation to the latter. I was a vocal critic of Kevinocracy and was condemned for that too. So I am in favour of constructive criticism.
However, j-v is trying to have the fellow bludgers believe the Liberals and Labor are interchangeable. This is a fallacy and is the reason for my posting. It has as much validity as attempts by the Liberals to portray the Greens as a satellite of the ALP.
There are serious issues to be dealt with by the next Government. I think only a strong Labor Government can or will deal with them.
The Liberals offer nothing at all but mischief and lies, while the green-pink so-called progressive voices offer nothing but hypocritical, opportunistic, self-serving criticisms of Labor. From my standpoint, the Liberals and the Greens have more in common than either would like to admit.