Peter van Onselen offers the following on internal polling in The Australian:
The Australian understands that Labor’s track polling shows its support is lifting in all states except Queensland, where the combinations of the toppling of Kevin Rudd (a local boy) and the deep unpopularity of the state government and Premier Anna Bligh are stifling support. The numbers suggest Labor could lose a host of seats in the Sunshine State. Attempts to arrest the decline include efforts by candidates to localise campaigns, along with sending Julia Gillard to Queensland for the early part of the campaign to break down the growing angst against her for tearing down an elected prime minister. Labor sources point out the irony is that during Rudd’s leadership, Queensland had been a problematic state where dissatisfaction with the job he was doing was high.
Perhaps surprisingly, the dip in support for Labor in Western Australia has been contained and a small upsurge has occurred. The same results have been seen in NSW on the strength of Labor’s changed border protection policy under Ms Gillard. The Coalition is facing financial constraints and is not doing anywhere near the amount of expensive track polling it did at the last election, or as much as Labor is doing now, according to one senior Liberal source. But the quantitative research the Coalition has done is said to have buoyed Tony Abbott and Brian Loughnane about their chances of a competitive result or even an upset victory. The Coalition is apparently tracking better in key marginal seats than published polls with wider samples such as Newspoll might suggest.
Around the grounds:
• Labor and the Greens have confirmed a preference deal in which the latter will receive Senate preferences across the country, and the former will get lower house preferences in 44 of 50 marginal seats. The Sydney Morning Herald reports local Greens in six seats have refused to abide by the deal: Lindsay and Gilmore in NSW, Herbert, Blair and Dawson in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia.
• While Tony Abbott was having a rough ride in Melbourne, Julia Gillard spent the first weekday of the campaign targeting the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal member Peter Lindsay is retiring and redistribution has nudged the seat from super-marginal Liberal to super-marginal Labor. Gillard spent the visit spruiking the Better Regional Cities policy which was unveiled the on Sunday, which will commit $200 million to affordable housing in regional cities.
• The Australian’s Samantha Maiden and Dennis Shanahan have both written today of a slick and efficient early campaign performance from Labor’s media unit that is leaving the opposition in its wake. According to Maiden, “media organisations are being carpet-bombed by an ALP campaign unit on steroids that is racing out media alerts, audio files of Coalition gaffes and interview transcripts via the social networking site Twitter”. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal campaign headquarters will not be operational until today.
• The ABC reports police have ruled out a firearm being responsible for damage to the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for Hughes, with a slingshot deemed more likely.
Oh dear another “bombshell”, this time for Tone.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/reserve-bank-undercuts-abbotts-campaign-on-debt-20100720-10jk5.html
Have to laugh.. just saw Gillies election Ad.
She’s pretty much campaigning against… Kevin Rudd.
“I’m for a Sustainable Australia, NOT a Big Australia”
“My first job as leader was to resolve the mining tax issue”
“I believe in stronger borders”
She’s pretty much trying to tell us she’s against everything Rudd stood for.
[She’s pretty much trying to tell us she’s against everything Rudd stood for.]
Did she also mention the NBN, no Workchoices and computers in schools, you know all those things Rudd was for and Labor still is for?
[No doubt you’ll blame a Labor victory on cheating or the AEC rigging the election, or some other partisan extremist rubbish.]
No way, I’ll blame the fact Gillards pretending she’s a conservative, just like Rudd did before the last election.
This proves one thing and that is that the left can’t win a federal election… not now, not ever. You are full of lots of bright ideological leftwing ideas… the only problem now is you actually need people to vote for them, something the Labor Party seems incapable of achieving. Those damn voters, always spoiling the fun.
TheTruthHurts@1102
May I suggest you do the following before you talk politics 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDXAGI_DGSM
[Did she also mention the NBN, no Workchoices and computers in schools, you know all those things Rudd was for and Labor still is for?]
Nope, none of that stuff.
She pretty much told us she’s against everything Kevin Rudd and the Australian Labor Party stood for the last 3 years.
I mean why would she say “I’m for a Sustainable Australia, NOT a big Australia”? She’s put the knives in Kevvies back, now she’s twisting them
It was a very positive ad that evokes optimism. A little bit like a corporate video, but effective nonetheless.
Compare that with the Abbott barking at the viewer about the “Real Action” contract he has taken out on this country. Or the latest one that is just miserable hatred against the ALP.
It took only 2 days for the Libs to release their first “Cheap visual effects juxtaposed with black screens and white text” attack ads. Firing your ammo a little too fast, are we?
[This proves one thing and that is that the left can’t win a federal election… not now, not ever]
Nope. It will prove that an extreme conservative can’t win though.
[It was a very positive ad that evokes optimism. A little bit like a corporate video, but effective nonetheless. ]
Why did she bring up the Big Australia and GBNT on miners then?
Those were Labor iniatives were they not?
Are you going to help Kevvie campaign in Griffith Truthy?
[Are you going to help Kevvie campaign in Griffith Truthy?]
Does Griffith have a trailer park?
[Why did she bring up the Big Australia and GBNT on miners then?
Those were Labor iniatives were they not?]
It takes wisdom to acknowledge when you are wrong and change your stance accordingly.
The ALP aren’t full of stubborn extremists who refuse to change their views when they are wrong.
[Are you going to help Kevvie campaign in Griffith Truthy?]
I imagine Kev probably has some form of restraining order against Truthy.
[The ALP aren’t full of stubborn extremists who refuse to change their views when they are wrong.]
One requires a minimum level of intelligence to understand that one is wrong in the first place.
[Why did she bring up the Big Australia and GBNT on miners then?
Those were Labor iniatives were they not?]
Nah, you’re getting your Young Libs talking point sheet mixed up with Labor policies.
And The Australian, to be fair and balanced, may have gone a little further into history.
Pointing out that Mr Hayden Tran, in 1986 a 10 year old, was escaping persecution or worse in Vietnam.
Could have said, there was no queue, the young Tran undoubtedly arrived in this country on a boat, as was stated, via Indonesia.
Could have said thanks to Malcolm Fraser.
In accordance with Mr Fraser’s understanding of the obligation meant by Australia’s signatory under the UNHCR agreement.
Not to mention the simple humanity.
An accord that Mr Tony ‘Fair’ Abbott would deny Hayden Tran today or any day.
An accord that Mr Tony ‘Fair’ Abbott would deny his former leader today or any day.
Not to mention the simple inhumanity.
Somewhere in far north queensland, a village has lost it’s idiot…
It might be simpler..
I’ll suggest that Mr Tran probably votes the libs because on a very basic level he sees them as the party that helped him settle into Australia (Fraser era etc) and thus he is a natural supporter of them, needing a very significant change to do otherwise.
Poor diddums. 🙂 🙂
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/viral-ad-to-go-creepy-on-abbott/story-fn59niix-1225894276622
Quoting myself, Sertse
‘And The Australian, to be fair and balanced, may have gone a little further into history’.
Do not mean that Mr Hayden Tran is unaware. He does not seem to be.
But the Australian published this article, and the Australian has the time and space to expand it.
In the way I describe.
“Turkey discusses peace with Hamas”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/20/2959504.htm
Oh dear God, I read it as “Tuckey”.
(Heart slowing back down)
I wonder if Truthy has made any more of these ?
(Caution contains Swearing)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AaaxFV-Fo2U
They should be running excerpts of the Rabbot signing that pledge and all the contraditions thereafter as a Ad warning that he’ll bring back Workchoices by Stealth, ASAP, and if not WHy? and especially in Queensland, where they had huge swings back in 2007 because of it.
Today’s attack on Abbott BY Paul Kelly in the OZ marks a dangerous moment for Abbott
Kelly,the High priest of the OZ Commentariat makes a full frontal assault on the muddle and chaos that seems to be part of Abbott’s campaign
His performance on Monday on the Neil Mitchel program
in Melbourne was terrible,,almost a farce,and Mitchel showed his displeasure!
,
Now Keely claims Abbott has abandoned all the work of a decade of Liberal leaders who wanted a derugulated labour market….NOW ALL ABANDONED.!!
So how does Abbott rescue his campaign…I think only with great difficulty !
What is Abbott’s problem? He seems to be in a state of anxiety and it shows…especially when seen against the calm and measured behaviour of Gillard.
This is a continuing disaster for the Libs!..and Kelly writes of this !
Fancy the OZ turning on Tony!!!
The West on the Battle for Canning:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/7613756/canning-rivals-talk-the-walk/
Here’s one that the bookies could have got a bit back to front and the local newspaper concurs.
[ THE LNP’S George Christensen is off to a flying start in the race to claim the Federal seat of Dawson, with betting agencies listing him as a hot favourite.
It’s expected to be a tight race but Cr Christensen has bolted out of the gates with Sportingbet and Centrebet both putting him ahead of the pack, at $1.70 and $1.66 respectively.
Both agencies have ALP candidate Mike Brunker a length behind at $2.10, while the Green’s Jonathan Dykyj is out at $26 and Independent Robert Jameson at $51.]
The seat of Dawson is nominally 2.2% Labor but you would never guess that from this story.
http://www.dailymercury.com.au/story/2010/07/21/george-has-the-inside-running/
Stunning indeed, i am also stunned by how terrible Abbott is physical looking.
Abbott himself has been emasculated to the extend he looks terrible, like a plastic version of his former self. What happened to the conviction politician? Abbott is at best and most appealing when he is feral, headkicking and showing his budgies. Now, he is a pale shadow of his former self.
You can almost see the pain on Kroger’s face last night on Lateline when he grudgingly uttered “Dead, buried and cremated” and said: “FFFFF you Abbott”.
[The Liberals are looking like amateurs – THE farcical start to election 2010 is Tony Abbott coming under attack for clinging to Work Choices when, in fact, he is presiding over an ignominious retreat by abandoning the generational long Liberal Party commitment to labour market reform in the cause of job creation.
The extent of Liberal retreat is stunning.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-waves-white-flag-on-labour-reform/story-fn59niix-1225894775175
Looks like a Health day for Julia today, I wonder what Tony will cut?
Truthy, she does support the National Broadband Network.
Annabel Crabb
[To watch Tony Abbott make his way through yesterday was to watch one man in a death-struggle with his truth instinct.
This truth instinct has made trouble for Mr Abbott in the past.
It’s like a ventriloquist parrot sitting on his shoulder.
Where any other politician might keep quiet, Mr Abbott’s parrot will squawk abuse about Bernie Banton.
Where any other politician would murmur a bland generality about the importance of the family unit, Mr Abbott’s parrot shrieks: “My daughter called me a lame, gay, churchy loser!”]
It gets better LOL
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/20/2958550.htm?site=thedrum
[Looks like a Health day for Julia today, I wonder what Tony will cut?]
Tony has to explain how he can commit to a savings measure announced yesterday without changing Workplace Laws/Regulations
[Abbott plan means changing work laws: Labor]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/21/2959546.htm
[deblonay
Posted Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 4:52 am | Permalink
…..
Fancy the OZ turning on Tony!!!]
By pretending the Liberal party isn’t in complete chaos for the last 3 years the opportunity for something to be done has past. The have to go into an election with a lightweight in charge. All parties have members they have to hide in an election campaigns, only the Liberals have a parliamentary leader that should be given a 4 week holiday around about now.
Interesting comment on the ABC story Tom links to. Seems to be the shadow Cuppa:
[The ALP says the Libs have a problem with work choices. What does our ‘un-biased’ national broadcaster do? They turn it into a story. They run with it, no matter what the facts are.]
Paul Kelly gets it so wrong in that article Finns linked to.
[Coalition reform equates with a Work Choices revival. In addition, Abbott knows that the new Senate will almost certainly be controlled by a Labor-Green alliance guaranteed to defeat any Coalition reform. In short, there is little point in Abbott fighting for a risky policy that is doomed in the next Senate anyway.]
The new senate does not take its place until July next year, an Abbott govt will control the senate with Fielding and Xenophon, the same senate that has blocked so much of labors legislation in the past three years.
How could Kelly, the poltical editor of our national newspaper get it so wrong and overlook such a basic fact.
[Senator Joyce detailed how, under his plan, indigenous private sector employees would not be taxed until their incomes reached $80,000, with businesses able to offer lower pay without workers being out of pocket.]
[But he was last night slapped down by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, who said through a spokeswoman that the proposal was not policy]
The lower taxes idea enabling businesses to pay lower wages is part of Workchoices and was Howards idea. Not too bad an idea on the surface except that the lower paid worker has less tax to claim back.
The idea is only for the workers, Howard did the opposite in nearly doubling the wage of his close friend Hollingsworth when he was GG, making the GG wage taxable instead of a tax free wage.
What kelly fails to mention is the reason drastic IR reform is not going to happen anytime soon is that howard costello abbott & Co tried so damn hard to screw the young, the unskilled, those who had no chance of standing up to their bosses, that community gave the whole bunch of them the finger.
Had they approached IR in a less punitive way, they may well have still been in power. As it stands, the more they protest and deny their real intentions, the more the community don’t believe them
[But he was last night slapped down by Opposition Leader Tony Abbott, who said through a spokeswoman that the proposal was not policy]
Not Liberal, National or LNP policy? 🙂
Just listening to Joe Hocket on AM talking with Lyndal Curtis…
1. Joe just says anything, ANYTHING he feels like, e.g. “Labor will always have a surplus. They will never pay off the debt. They will raise taxes and still not get anywhere,” and “Debt and interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition, ALWAYS, ” and “Julia illard stands for absolutely nothing. Who is she? No-one knows!” and (the best one) “Tony Abbott is a conviction politician. He believes in things.”
2. Lyndal pretty-well lets him get away with it, mildly prodding him on occasion and pulling him up here and there, but basically he gets a free run with her. She never talks over him, never shows any disrespect. Her tone is apologetic, as if she is signalling she has to ask sort-of “hard” questions for form’s sake, but don’t worry much Joe, I won’t go in too hard.
3. He sounded just as cock-sure in 2007 when he was Industrial Relations minister, which consoles me, but his arrogance and condescending nature is sure annoying, just the same.
4. The ABC still seems cowed by the Coalition’s past glories. They appear to be scared of upsetting them, lest they be punished if they ever get back into power.
It was interesting on the day the election was called. ABC TV had Chris Uhlman speaking with another ABC journalist and they were half joking that they might struggle to get much election discussion to air as the opposition weren’t planning to have a spokesperson available over the next few days. They mentioned that in the interests of balance the ABC wouldn’t be able to provide air time to a government spokesperson if the opposition shut up shop. How absurd is that? Basically if one side of the debate decided to STFU for a week then the ABC would consider not speaking to someone from the other side stifling all debate.
70% of boatpeople are fake Refugee’s.
This is proof of what people such as myself have been saying, these people are economic migrants not real refugees.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/successful-asylum-claims-plummet/story-e6frg6nf-1225894776213
[KEVIN Rudd’s suspension of new Afghan and Sri Lankan asylum claims was followed by a rapid drop in successful asylum claims.
Yesterday, the regional head of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Richard Towle, accused the government of contradicting itself by suspending new Afghan asylum claims, ostensibly in order to reassess the local security situation, while at the same time rejecting Afghans at a rate of 70 per cent.
Before the Rudd suspension, Afghans were being approved at a rate of more than 95 per cent.
Mr Towle said the high refusal rates suggested a certainty about the situation in Afghanistan that was at odds with the stated reason for the suspension.
“There seems to be a contradiction between a suspension policy based on a lack of clarity and certainty in the country of origin and an ongoing process that has resulted in a dramatic fall in recognitions of more than 65 per cent,” Mr Towle told The Australian.]
BB, I reckon Sloppy and the libs know in their hearts they are not going win this election – as do the News Corpse mob.
They are just going through the motions.
dave, I am starting to sense the same thing. Could just be my bias and expectation clouding my judgment.
Trioli tried this one on when she had a radio show in Sydney.
She was interviewing Malcolm Fraser (solo), and kept on interrupting him with government talking points. Finally Fraser spat the dummy and asked her why she was pushing the government line. Her reply was that the government hadn’t sent someone to debate Fraser, so it was her job – as a “balanced” interviewer – to take up the cudgels on their behalf.
Fraser’s reply was that if the government wanted to put their point of view, then they should have turned up, and not rely on the ABC to proxy for them. He indicated an unwillingness to go on with the interview until Trioli accepted this. She did, eventually.
TTH
I would have thought you’d consider The UN High Commissioner for Refugees to be a bleeding heart leftie. You really are struggling.
Don’t get too distressed – in 4 weeks time it will be just about all over. Then you can lick your wounds and crawl back into your cave for another 3 years.
[I would have thought you’d consider The UN High Commissioner for Refugees to be a bleeding heart leftie. You really are struggling.]
I do, but how is that relevent to this story?
70% of Afghan boatpeople… and they are the largest group of arrivals are now being rejected as being refugee’s.
That means about 70% of boatpeople are not refugee’s but economic migrants.
Victoria – could also the case with me.
A lot still can happen and its not over until the votes are counted, but the
libs are far from happy and it shows.
[It was interesting on the day the election was called. ABC TV had Chris Uhlman speaking with another ABC journalist and they were half joking that they might struggle to get much election discussion to air as the opposition weren’t planning to have a spokesperson available over the next few days. They mentioned that in the interests of balance the ABC wouldn’t be able to provide air time to a government spokesperson if the opposition shut up shop. How absurd is that? Basically if one side of the debate decided to STFU for a week then the ABC would consider not speaking to someone from the other side stifling all debate.]
The failure to grant “equal time” to the sides of a debate does not seem to stop the ABC from publishing on its blog, The Drum, many articles by Liberal pollies and staffers attacking Labor where no reply from Labor is published.
Yeah, maybe. They certainly like to give the impression that they’re in on a little secret that nobody else is in on. Their confidence is astounding.
Today I heard Robb DEMANDING that govenment do this and that, telling them how to run the country like a proper government should (e.g. the Coalition) and cut back spending like they are. That they are not really cutting back anywhere near as much as they claim is being ignored by the media, in the main. The talking points are just regurgitated verbatim. Speers yesterday was the best I saw along these lines. He just asserted that Abbott had Gillard in his sights on the economy and it was now game on, with the election ebing the coalition’s to lose.
Listening now to an ABC discussion (702 Sydney) on politics as a reality TV show: full of fake “ordeals” and concocted “drama”, signifying nothing very much at all.
[A new Galaxy poll of four marginal Queensland seats has found support for an emissions trading scheme (ETS) continues to grow.
The poll was commissioned by World Wildlife Fund Australia.
It found 74 per cent of respondents in the seats of Brisbane, Bowman, Petrie and Ryan say they are in favour of an ETS to reduce carbon pollution.
The figure is up 4 per cent from the previous poll conducted in June.
The survey also found 87 per cent of those who identified themselves as Labor voters want an ETS by next year.]
Hmmm.
BB
[Just listening to Joe Hocket on AM talking with Lyndal Curtis…
1. Joe just says anything, ANYTHING he feels like, e.g. “Labor will always have a surplus. They will never pay off the debt. They will raise taxes and still not get anywhere,” and “Debt and interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition, ALWAYS, ” and “Julia illard stands for absolutely nothing. Who is she? No-one knows!” and (the best one) “Tony Abbott is a conviction politician. He believes in things.”]
I suppose Hockey still dreams of us getting a Great Big New Treasurer?
Reading Joseph Stiglitz’s speaking tour program there are plenty of opportunities for the coalition’s sillier lines to get a critique. The speech he gave in Perth was one of seven different speeches he will be giving. He has specifically said he is here to better understand how Australia did so well in the GFC. Highlight speeches shoudl include:
Farewell to the Invisible Hand? A Global Financial System for the Twenty-first Century
(Melbourne 28 July)
Bailouts, Regulation or Free Markets? Business and Government in a Small Regional Economy
(Hobart 2 August)
The Road to Global Recovery – Lessons and Opportunities
(Sydney 5 August)
In some of these he is bound to say that debt spending by a government in a recession is sensible, even for the US which hs five times our debt. I hope he gets reported.