Peter van Onselen offers the following on internal polling in The Australian:
The Australian understands that Labor’s track polling shows its support is lifting in all states except Queensland, where the combinations of the toppling of Kevin Rudd (a local boy) and the deep unpopularity of the state government and Premier Anna Bligh are stifling support. The numbers suggest Labor could lose a host of seats in the Sunshine State. Attempts to arrest the decline include efforts by candidates to localise campaigns, along with sending Julia Gillard to Queensland for the early part of the campaign to break down the growing angst against her for tearing down an elected prime minister. Labor sources point out the irony is that during Rudd’s leadership, Queensland had been a problematic state where dissatisfaction with the job he was doing was high.
Perhaps surprisingly, the dip in support for Labor in Western Australia has been contained and a small upsurge has occurred. The same results have been seen in NSW on the strength of Labor’s changed border protection policy under Ms Gillard. The Coalition is facing financial constraints and is not doing anywhere near the amount of expensive track polling it did at the last election, or as much as Labor is doing now, according to one senior Liberal source. But the quantitative research the Coalition has done is said to have buoyed Tony Abbott and Brian Loughnane about their chances of a competitive result or even an upset victory. The Coalition is apparently tracking better in key marginal seats than published polls with wider samples such as Newspoll might suggest.
Around the grounds:
• Labor and the Greens have confirmed a preference deal in which the latter will receive Senate preferences across the country, and the former will get lower house preferences in 44 of 50 marginal seats. The Sydney Morning Herald reports local Greens in six seats have refused to abide by the deal: Lindsay and Gilmore in NSW, Herbert, Blair and Dawson in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia.
• While Tony Abbott was having a rough ride in Melbourne, Julia Gillard spent the first weekday of the campaign targeting the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal member Peter Lindsay is retiring and redistribution has nudged the seat from super-marginal Liberal to super-marginal Labor. Gillard spent the visit spruiking the Better Regional Cities policy which was unveiled the on Sunday, which will commit $200 million to affordable housing in regional cities.
• The Australian’s Samantha Maiden and Dennis Shanahan have both written today of a slick and efficient early campaign performance from Labor’s media unit that is leaving the opposition in its wake. According to Maiden, “media organisations are being carpet-bombed by an ALP campaign unit on steroids that is racing out media alerts, audio files of Coalition gaffes and interview transcripts via the social networking site Twitter”. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal campaign headquarters will not be operational until today.
• The ABC reports police have ruled out a firearm being responsible for damage to the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for Hughes, with a slingshot deemed more likely.
Truthy: How do you feel about your hero going on a low ratings dud TV show to boost his profile? 😀
[TONY Abbott must break a key election promise on workplace laws to allow the Coalition to declare war on the unions – or backflip on a $25 million savings policy announced yesterday.
A major Budget savings plan to cut funding for union ballots and industrial elections, released yesterday as part of the Coalition’s workplace policy, appears to require a rewriting of the country’s current workplace laws.
It means Mr Abbott must ditch a plank of his first election policy, or break his pledge to not make any changes to the Fair Work Act for the term of the next Parliament if elected.
The apparent policy bungle has again exposed Mr Abbott on the Coalition’s most vulnerable election issue – the fear of a return to John Howard’s WorkChoices which cost the Coalition the last election.]
Front page of today’s Terrograph.
oh dear, the rope is getting longer and longer. Abbott said they dont have to resurrect the “dead, buried and cremated” and enough just to change the Electoral Acts.
This is like, we dont have a grave for the Serfchoices, but we still worship and pay homage everyday to the Ashes in the Urn.
[TONY Abbott must break a key election promise on workplace laws to allow the Coalition to declare war on the unions – or backflip on a $25 million savings policy announced yesterday.
A major Budget savings plan to cut funding for union ballots and industrial elections, released yesterday as part of the Coalition’s workplace policy, appears to require a rewriting of the country’s current workplace laws.
It means Mr Abbott must ditch a plank of his first election policy, or break his pledge to not make any changes to the Fair Work Act for the term of the next Parliament if elected.]
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/abbotts-25m-work-laws-mess/story-fn5zm695-1225894776401
so 1152 was really in the Telegraph????
I guess that a whole lot of the media will be in the seat of Griffith today, trying to catch a glimpse of the Ruddster kicking off his campaign to retain the seat.
You just have to love Murdoch’s Townsville Bulletin. Yesterday’s front page was a full page photo of the ALP candidate and ex Mayor Tony Mooney and the Ranga at the beautiful Strand that he built.
Today’s front page features the New Mayor that replaced Tony Mooney. To say the locals want Mooney back is an understatement. Truthy – is this the new council you posted about that is bringing business and progress to Townsville. If you really believe that you are the last person in Townsville to feel that way.
One of the major factors in Mooney’s favour is the abject failure of the Mayor and liberal alligned council that replaced him.
http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/article/2010/07/21/156081_news.html
Herbert is still @ $1.90 and still the best bet in QLD.
Dear Finns i love your sence of Humour / but miss your music
I dont get it how does he make these mistakes is it self inflicked or bad advice?
One thought that occurred to me on the Coalition going into an election campaign minus the benefits of incumbency for the first time in a long time: who will cost their policies? They don’t exactly have a lot of understanding of economics in Shadow Cabinet. Getting a consulting firm to tell you everything is OK is not the same as people in treasury giving frank and fearless advice over what is wrong. They will probably want to delay releasing any details till the last minute to minimise scrutiny.
ru, I support an ETS and I’m prepared to pay my share of the cost.
Most Australians would support an ETS but when the cost to individuals are mentioned support falls away dramatically. This is the toughest issue any government has to face. It requires bi partisan support to get something off the ground. We had that support last year but that was smashed to pieces and I can’t see the 2 major parties reaching agreement in the next parliament.
Hey folks – I’m trying to keep track of the marginal seats visited by each leader. So far for Tony Abbott I have Aston and Deakin. For Julia Gillard Herbert and Macquarie. Are there others?
Carbine said wtte
the coalition still has $6.5 billion to play with based on its projected savings????????????
she really dont get maths
[so 1152 was really in the Telegraph????]
Yes. And on the front page of the paper edition.
[The ABC still seems cowed by the Coalition’s past glories. They appear to be scared of upsetting them, lest they be punished if they ever get back into power.]
ABC breakfast interviewed Andrew Robb – nice soft questionning, Robb rambling on as always without being challenged. He virtually said Glenn Stevens didn’t know what he was talking about when saying our debt is not a problem.
It was a long interview and there were nice thankyous, with big smiles, to Robb when he finished. He had a ‘cat ate the canary’ grin on his face – thanks fellas, you gave me a great run there.
Next up Craig Emerson – shortish interview. Michael whatsisname tried to change the subject when Emerson mentioned that Robb’s spending cuts were not cuts at all. At the end of the interview a quick thankyou from ABC with no smiles at all.
Earlier they had interview with some bloke who raved on about tiredness being a problem for Julia Gillard cos she is a woman!!! Can you believe it – the silly little presenter, who looked tired herself, carried on that little tidbit for as long as she could. I bet it didn’t endear them to many women out there who have to handle work, kids, home and whatever else.
So the media and Lib meme is – Julia too tired. Julia too controlled. Julia too scared to do the shopping centres. In their dreams!!
Glen Stevens quoted in The Age today. “Australia virtually no net public debt” which is in contrast to the rest of the developed world, and that debt is 5-6% of GDP lowest in the world. This should form part of a Labor ad.
I’m surprised this very sad news hasn’t been mentioned in Australia: noted climate scientist and former Adelaide thinker in residence Stephen Schneider died yesterday in UK.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/07/a-eulogy-to-stephen-schneider/
Schneider is a great loss: one fo the pioneerign scientists in the field and also a skilled communicator of the impacts of climate change. recently he had worked on estimating their costs.
This is from the Real Climate post:
[Stephen Schneider did more than any other individual on the planet to help us realize that human actions have led to global-scale changes in Earth’s climate. Steve was instrumental in focusing scientific, political, and public attention on one of the major challenges facing humanity – the problem of human-caused climate change.]
Schneider started out as a mechanical engineer and became professor of climate change and atmospheric modelling at Stanford. He was a brilliant mathematical modeller.
I find it quite sad to think that he worked 30 years on this problem and we still haven’t gotten governments in Australia or the USA to act on fixing it before he died.
BH
the 702 crowd are giving those memes a good run
using dodgy analogy to boot
🙁
True, BB. Actually, I thought that was the most astounding thing about yesterday’s press conference, even more than Hockey’s tired (and recycled) Paris Hilton joke.
Abbott made his announcement – 1.2B to be cut. And then handballed to Hockey for the detail. Hockey bluffed and huffed, put on his jokey face and his stern face, mouthed a few platitudes, and handed over to Robb for the details. Robb put on his grave face and made a few demands of Labor, and before we knew it we were back with Abbott again. Any questions?
Well yes actually. What are the cuts? Abbott made a few noises about programs, and infrastructure and COAG, and then handballed the entire issue back to Robb, who’d already spoken.
They’d called a press conference to make an announcement, and no-one up there showed the slightest inclination to talk about it. Getting them to supply any details or rationale for what they were doing was like pulling teeth.
on yesterday’s blog my say referred to Abbott, Hockey and Robb as “the three amigos”. It is an apt description.
Julia announces 50,000 work experience places. Through group training organisations.
[I find it quite sad to think that he worked 30 years on this problem and we still haven’t gotten governments in Australia or the USA to act on fixing it before he died.]
me also, I worked at the Met office when young Socrates and even then it was discussed we used to do a lot of work on the Ozone layer but global warming was something i heard about just in passing those days,
Sadly my boss and friend in that area passed this week to he was a good friend to-Oh and i also
BTW – Andrew Robb said on ABc this am wtte that Toe’s appearance on Hey Hey is great because it will show people what a terrifically talented, friendly person Abbott is and will give everyone an idea of the allround personality.
I thought that his allround personality had been on show for 11.5 years in Govt. and 2.75 in Opposition and had been found to lack certain qualities, e.g. dignity and respect when speaking of terminally ill people, the ability to speak without fabrication – need I go on!
ruawake@1149
Another case of the Ledru-Rollin syndrome Peter Hartcher mentioned the other day: “There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.”
It seems to me Gillard could really set the campaign alight if she announced the Garnaut model going to the next parliament. That would be a winner I reckon. An actual policy in the campaign after all.
BH: A shame for Abbott and Robb that virtually nobody will be watching Hey Hey – it’ll get thumped by firstly MASTERCHEF and then the comedy lineup on the ABC.
[on yesterday’s blog my say referred to Abbott, Hockey and Robb as “the three amigos”. It is an apt description.]
but sadly i think i got my self in to trouble as i was only an observer last election i did not know that
Ron Vera and Finns affectionately where called that, sorry to up set or offend any one
perhaps we could find a video of the three stooges
I have played the song for Julia’ i was mean to you” over and over is so beautiful
Typo I WAS MEANT FOR YOU over and over
Thanks My Say. When I first read of Schneider and others work in the 80s it was just a theory – a serious concern but not proven. By the 90s though, changes in weather patterns made it clear he and Hansen were right. The Volkov ice core data proved it beyond doubt by about 93. Ever since then there has been a desperate campaign by the coal and oil industry to discredit the science and the scientists.
What comments were made by Labor’s candidate in Flinders?
[What comments were made by Labor’s candidate in Flinders?]
Abbott causes suicide.
Well there go we syndrome, do the msm now have it, or am i just livinging in hope
“[There go the people. I must follow them, for I am their leader.”]
Socrates
[I’m surprised this very sad news hasn’t been mentioned in Australia: noted climate scientist and former Adelaide thinker in residence Stephen Schneider died yesterday in UK.]
That is very sad news. Schneider was one of the best scientific communicators and an unbeleivably friendly guy. I met him and his wife, Terry Root, at a Banksia Awards night in Melbourne a few years ago (incidentally, where Greg Hunt as parli sec presented some awards).
Really big loss.
Albrechtsen Back Flip
News Limited’s self-describe ‘conservative’ opinion piece writer, Janet Albrechtsen, has been forced into an embarrassing back down… After previously endorsing Prime Minister Gillard, prior to her elevation to the Prime Ministership, Ms Albrechtsen has been forced to back flip, now claiming that “Sure, now she’s electable. But her problem is still policy”.
An unnamed source has claimed that Ms Albrechtsen has been hit hard by the reversal of opinion, and is considering her position at The Australian news paper. “After castigating so many others for performing a ‘back flip’ she (Ms Albrechtsen) now has to negotiate her own version of a tripple twist with a pike…” Ms Albrechtsen could not be contacted for comment.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/mea-culpa-time-not-so-fast/story-fn59niix-1225894776539
[Abbott causes suicide.]
Offensive.
There are so many things Abbott can be criticised for, there’s no need for people to over reach with the hyperbole.
ruawake@1177
Instead of saying Abbott’s views cause teen suicide, the candidate should have simply said, “A vote for Abbott is a vote for George Pell.” I reckon Labor should use that line.
[Thanks My Say. When I first read of Schneider and others work in the 80s it was just a theory – a serious concern but not proven. By the 90s though, changes in weather ]
i would of loved to have continued my position there of weather observer but those days when you married had a baby out the door with you it was the tories way of keeping woman at home, then when things changed and still had a few qualification i could not go back because there where NO child minding and then there was shift work , So had to forget it hasn’t life changed for the generation i bought in to the world, I wish they realised how much especially the young woman thats why a detest the Tories so much, they changed many a life or hindered many a life,
one big example of course was National Service and Conscription which a old liberal person told me some years ago is still on the books, dont know what was meant by that may be he meant that the older people in the party still go along with it.
Buy i digress
JV,
good line if you dont want catholics to vote Labor.
blue_green@1184
Well, to even it up, the Libs could go with, “A vote for Julia Gillard is a vote for Richard Dawkins”
Blue green
Yes I met Schneider briefly when he did some lectures in Adelaide. He was an excellent speaker and a very nice guy to talk to – very patient too, even with the dumbest of questions.
[I reckon Labor should use that line.]
Thus demonstrating your utter ignorance of Australian politics, not to mention the Labor Party.
How about Abbott causes diarrhoea, sometimes constipation, migraines, retinopathy (the budgies), malaise, depression and anxiety.
[there are quite a few holes in the Liberals savings, which I though Tingle was going to raise in the AFR. I havent seen it, but surely Labor need to be highlighting these ASAP]
Andrew@691. Craig Emerson wasn’t given much time to highlight it on ABC breakfast. Jason Clare was given less time on SkyAgenda than the Lib guy who spouted exactly the same lines as Andrew Robb.
Seems as tho the media has decided to give as little time as possible to the Govt. on the Libs errors. Emerson did say their accounting errors are worse than the one Howard made in 1995 (I think that was the year).
JV
I was listening to sydney talkback last night and a old working class few blokes rang in to say ’cause Julia is unwed how can she understand families’ and ’cause Julia is athiest, she can lie and get away with it’.
I couldnt tell if they were stooges but the shock jock put them straight and said well at least she is honest about those things. She could have pretented to be religious or gotten married for the sake of it.
It was then followed by a barrage of angry older women how silly those men were.
[Abbott causes suicide.]
You wonder how a candidate can be so brainless.
Psephos@1187
Come on, get with the irony, for Sagan’s sake.
The ALP weren’t going to win Flinders anyway – Julia can always disendorse the guy.
When do we start seeing some real announcements from the Libs? So far they’ve just fluffed around, had some fun in Blokesworld, but haven’t actually given any indication what they stand for. It’s now day 4 of the campaign, and they’ve made no substantive campaign announcements.
[could. I bet it didn’t endear them to many women out there who have to handle work, kids, home and whatever else.
So the media and Lib meme is – Julia too tired. Julia too controlled. Julia too scared to do the shopping centres. In their dreams!!]
you know me i dont use crappy words today’s an exception what a load of crapp
my situation would of mirrored most woman now and then, worked 14 hours a day three children oh worked mainly on the mainland , shopping cleaning, etc dont have to go on
Science even suggests that woman can used both sides of their brain together where the fellars cannot ( sorry boys)
what qualifications did the person suggesting this have, Julia will be fine she is energetic and has a great energy and love for what she is doing and the people of this country and to top that she has a smile on her face all the time WINNERS ARE GRINNERS. isn’t that the new saying of the this century.
People with mean temperament and negative views now they are the ones that may be get worn out.??
Psephos – don’t know whether you can get the message through but is it worth an ad about debt and deficit which points out the loss of tax revenue collected due to the GFC and the measly surplus left by Costello to cover it.
Robb is heavily pushing the line that there was no need to go into debt because the accounts were in such good order.
confessions
In their defence, the budget cuts were a substantial policy decision
blue_green@1190
That’s heartening. It is good to see Australia remains a basically secular political landscape, and has not gone the way of the US. I’d like to think we never will, because of the different historical transfer of religion to the US compared to here. We have a legacy of irreverence that is lacking among a lot of Americans.
[I reckon Labor should use that line.]
No NO,, when watching the lib adds last night OH said labor will be fine as long as
they dont use those adds the ones that started last night