Peter van Onselen offers the following on internal polling in The Australian:
The Australian understands that Labor’s track polling shows its support is lifting in all states except Queensland, where the combinations of the toppling of Kevin Rudd (a local boy) and the deep unpopularity of the state government and Premier Anna Bligh are stifling support. The numbers suggest Labor could lose a host of seats in the Sunshine State. Attempts to arrest the decline include efforts by candidates to localise campaigns, along with sending Julia Gillard to Queensland for the early part of the campaign to break down the growing angst against her for tearing down an elected prime minister. Labor sources point out the irony is that during Rudd’s leadership, Queensland had been a problematic state where dissatisfaction with the job he was doing was high.
Perhaps surprisingly, the dip in support for Labor in Western Australia has been contained and a small upsurge has occurred. The same results have been seen in NSW on the strength of Labor’s changed border protection policy under Ms Gillard. The Coalition is facing financial constraints and is not doing anywhere near the amount of expensive track polling it did at the last election, or as much as Labor is doing now, according to one senior Liberal source. But the quantitative research the Coalition has done is said to have buoyed Tony Abbott and Brian Loughnane about their chances of a competitive result or even an upset victory. The Coalition is apparently tracking better in key marginal seats than published polls with wider samples such as Newspoll might suggest.
Around the grounds:
• Labor and the Greens have confirmed a preference deal in which the latter will receive Senate preferences across the country, and the former will get lower house preferences in 44 of 50 marginal seats. The Sydney Morning Herald reports local Greens in six seats have refused to abide by the deal: Lindsay and Gilmore in NSW, Herbert, Blair and Dawson in Queensland, and Sturt in South Australia.
• While Tony Abbott was having a rough ride in Melbourne, Julia Gillard spent the first weekday of the campaign targeting the Townsville seat of Herbert, where Liberal member Peter Lindsay is retiring and redistribution has nudged the seat from super-marginal Liberal to super-marginal Labor. Gillard spent the visit spruiking the Better Regional Cities policy which was unveiled the on Sunday, which will commit $200 million to affordable housing in regional cities.
• The Australian’s Samantha Maiden and Dennis Shanahan have both written today of a slick and efficient early campaign performance from Labor’s media unit that is leaving the opposition in its wake. According to Maiden, “media organisations are being carpet-bombed by an ALP campaign unit on steroids that is racing out media alerts, audio files of Coalition gaffes and interview transcripts via the social networking site Twitter”. The Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal campaign headquarters will not be operational until today.
• The ABC reports police have ruled out a firearm being responsible for damage to the home and campaign office of Brent Thomas, Labor’s candidate for Hughes, with a slingshot deemed more likely.
[That is an unbelievable segment – is it online somewhere? And what next? If Gillard has an off day they’ll claim it must be ‘that time of the month’?]
any links
[ep – if you think Queenslanders are parochial – you’ve never been to Victoria!
They are obsessed with Sydney and comparisons to it – just like New Zealanders are to Australia.]
DarrenL @826 – I laughed at that. How about South Aussies v. the Vics. Some of the best day of my younger years were spent at the Adelaide Oval screaming at the Big V – Barassi, Jesalenko and the rest of them. We were good Vic haters.
Years later, while living in Sydney, Barass came up to the Swannies. Gee I loved that guy then !!
[Mr Abbott says a Coalition government would increase the rebate to $500 out of $1,000 spending for primary school children and up to $1,000 in $2,000 of spending for high school students.]
gee has he no original thoughts
Glen,
A little bit of oxygen. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/labor-candidates-abortion-comments-wrong-pm-20100721-10k31.html
Didnt some one say once that introducing the GST would lead to extra deaths?
“thespectator – I reckon some of us should be doing ads. The one thing I detested about Beazley was his lack of gumption to stand up for Hawke and Keating’s record. He let Howard run all over him with it just the way Robb and Abbott are doing now. What business would not advertise its successes? Not one, I bet.”
BH Agree – stand up and be proud. The libs are probably sitting back laughing and cannot believe the ALP are not selling the economy front and centre as a message. Pure and utter madness. instead we are caught up in minor issues such as boats which represent 1% of Aust migration intake. Robb, Abbott and Hockey could be easily smashed down on this issue for the fools that they are.
Glen, i think its been well established that they are gutless sods.
[Did they counter with the obvious fact that Australia has had many women political leaders who have not only managed to embrace the slog of an election campaign with gusto, but have survived it to boot. As I said: racing into the gutter.]
confessions – of course the presenter didn’t. I thought how on earth can a female, who probably considers herself a professional woman, discuss this with a bloke without standing up for strong females. It beggared belief.
I hope someone can find the segment for you. An earlier PB post said that ABC radio is also spruiking the ‘tired’ line, but I saw Julia this morning and she looks terrific.
1[262 blue_green
Posted Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 11:00 am | Permalink
If anyone wants to follwo the campaign on twitter but dont necessarily want to sign up. Here is the best way to do it.
Twitterers can create lists of other twitterers and by viewing those lists you can see what all ]
so i just clicked follow at likika is that all
BG, Burgey and others on the cricket gear theme: do you think Tony would still pay up if your Slazenger etc has a Jane McGrath grip and is thus a pink bat?
my say,
I just have bookmarked that page/link and check back every now and then to see what the journos are up to. It updates regularlay as each journo says something new, you might have to refresh the page every now and then.
1305 – I wonder, though, whether in the outer suburban marginals, things aren’t so great economically for people, and maybe the’s why they aren’t, well, not gloating, but you know what I mean? Maybe it wouldn’t play well in those seats to have the government saying all is sweetness and light when it isn’t in marginals land.
BTW, anyone see that segment yesterday with Glen Stevens, where the journo asked a room full of about 300 economists to “put your hand up if you think either side can keep interest rates low”.. “Hmm, not a single hand.. That being so Governor, what do you think about the promises that rates will always be lower… etc”
Was a golden moment to be honest.
MM 1309 – haha, good shout.
MM,
Tony’s Pink Bat(t) Scheme. Very drol.
For the nerdy ones among you – I had a look at calling an election for August 21 compared to August 28 would be expected to impact the ALP two party preferred vote as a result of young voter enrolment being depressed – used AEC, census, Parli Library and polling data to run the numbers.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/07/21/what-size-the-alp-vote-hit-from-closing-rolls-early/
[ The legend that is Glenn Milne joins The Drum http://bit.ly/cTTqVK
half a minute ago via TweetDeck
found it at latikas tweet
Poss,
We are all nerdy ones.
[The political party founded by firebrand Pauline Hanson has called for two dedicated seats in federal parliament for indigenous people.]
Wonders never cease. Who would’ve thought One Nation would be bleeding heart, latte sipping, inner city leftists?
The reality of the media and what Labor are facing:
[As I said on a previous post, the best way to get a handle on how most voters are perceiving the campaign is to watch the first ten minutes of a commercial tv news bulletin. By way of illustration, Channel Nine viewers heard Tony Abbott tonight decrying debt and deficit and promising to save $1.2 billion by cutting bureaucracy.
That’s about it, apart from the PM claiming to be an economic conservative, and Real Action Man Abbott riding his bike around Melbourne this morning.
All this was bumped from the top news spot in Queensland by a story about a recall of dangerous baby products.
You’d have had to watch the 7.30 Report to have heard Wayne Swan point out that very little of the Coalition’s claimed savings are anything of the sort (selling Medibank Private or abolishing the NBN not being savings on recurrent expenditure, not to mention the fact that they’re still claiming phantom savings from the RSPT).
And you’d have to have gone to Peter Martin’s blog to find out that the list of ‘savings’ today aren’t particularly related to bureaucrats. But not to have heard Tony Abbott’s homily about belt tightening. Or Joe Hockey comparing Wayne Swan to Paris Hilton, and being rightly asked by a journo about using silly metaphors about women’s sexuality. That you would have got from Channel Nine.]
(via LP)
[ the spectator
Posted Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 11:35 am | Permalink
“thespectator – I reckon some of us should be doing ads. The one thing I detested about Beazley was his lack of gumption to stand up for Hawke and Keating’s record. He let Howard run all over him with it just the way Robb and Abbott are doing now. What business would not advertise its successes? Not one, I bet.”]
The labor factions crucified Rudd and in so doing crucified incumbency, they can’t look to the past without opening up the issue; why dump Rudd?
[anyone see that segment yesterday with Glen Stevens, where the journo asked a room full of about 300 economists to “put your hand up if you ]
yes when are the business community going to have their say
Thanks Poss.
Can anyone say, if interest rates go up by .25% in the campaign, where does that leave them compared with where they were when Rudd was elected? Can’t be much higher, can it? Maybe a tad lower even
Agree that ALP needs to sell its ecomomic credentials.
how hard is it 5% umemployment v 10% most other western economies.
Intertest rates lower than Howard (probably better to wait before hammering home)
Stevens debunking debt bogey.
Stimulus saving jobs and businesses – surplus depends on strong economy – hammer deficit being higher if unemployment higher and less revenue collected and more benefits paid. Highlight the option of deceit or economic incompetence of the oppo!
Jobs/jobs/jobs and then dovetail into workchoices threatens your jobs/jobs/jobs and your conditions.
I really despair if Pshephos’ view on strategy is a window into what the ALP is thinking – gormless and brainless ATM.
And while we are at it Julia is a real person and a real plus. Get her out there being Julia – Get here one on one with Abbott. No one wants to vote for Abbot – dont give them a reason.
My son tells me of a solid liberal voting mate – good christian boy even who cant bear to vote for Abbott on the question of competence and danger factor.
The LPL is running the campaign as if its in opposition – tell them about their jobs, the money in their pockets, the pension increases the tax cuts and THEN tell them how much better it will be ‘mervin’ ferwood’
[they can’t look to the past without opening up the issue; why dump Rudd?]
Because he was a dud. Primary figures in the low to mid 30s, net approval rating of -20. Next.
With William’s indulgence,
May I advise readers / posters / lurkers that Ad Astra’s blog, The Political Sword is keeping an ongoing repository of ABC performance in the blog-section ABC WATCH. And we need your contrtibutions.
When you see or hear bias, unfair reporting, or partisan behaviour by the ABC, please report it to The Political Sword as soon as possible. Post the details to any current thread at the blog, and blog-owner Ad Astra will make sure the details go into the ABC WATCH section.
We need to know:
– time and date of offense,
– which ABC network / presenter,
– and your explanation of what you believe they did wrong.
Ad Astra writes:
[Your collaboration in keeping track of what OUR ABC is doing may contribute to a change of its policies and improvement in its performance as a national broadcaster. ]
Links:
The Political Sword http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/
ABC WATCH http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/ABC-Watch.aspx
Thank you.
Rest day tommorow for good reasons. I think we are quite fortunate that the rates of war deaths are still low enough to enable our leaders to go to every funeral. Cameron and Obama would never get to work in their situauation.
[sspencer_63 The election campaign will be suspended tomorrow for the funeral of Private Nathan Bewes. Both leaders attending and cancelling all media. 1 minute ago]
Both leaders should have really also been at Frommelles. Quite sad that Prince Charles was there but not Aus PM.
[Intertest rates lower than Howard (probably better to wait before hammering home)]
Yes, but according to Robb this morning, we have the highest interest rates in the western world. He didn’t go on to explain why we have the highest rates of course.
I just pee’d mah panties laughing my ass off over this quote in the SMH story on Abbott’s school fee funding and the school kids mobbing him. Here’s the quote that is a kicker to Abbott, and should be in a comedy skit.
[“”I touched him,” screamed one of the exultant students.
“I don’t even know who he is,” screamed another.]
Re the ABC2 morning show conversation :
I was enraged by the fact that while they and that random guy on who was talking about how gillard will be more tired b/c it will take her longer to get ready (dressed and hair make-up) than for a guy they has a scroll bar under him for the entire interview with “labour embarrassed by staffer who confronts Abbott in speedos” and “gillard attacked for using ‘moving forward’ 25 times in her speech” and they alternated these 2 messages for the whole interview……
[ABC WATCH http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/page/ABC-Watch.aspx%5D
When comments from people on pollbludger as used as ‘evidence’ you know something’s jumped the shark.
If rates go up by .25% during the campaign, they’ll still be 2% lower than the 6.75% when Howard left office.
[ltep
Posted Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 11:50 am | Permalink
they can’t look to the past without opening up the issue; why dump Rudd?
Because he was a dud. Primary figures in the low to mid 30s, net approval rating of -20. Next.]
Oh and why Labor functionary use something other than the two party preferred vote to justify the raw power grab, and why Labor functionaries have the ordasity to turn on a man that delivered them government.
[When comments from people on pollbludger as used as ‘evidence’ you know something’s jumped the shark.]
You’re an ABC-bias denier/ridiculer so your claims are no more credible than anyone else’s.
The Rudd lovers are the exact people who were his most vicious, vocal critics when he was in office.
[#
1333
leftwingpinko
Posted Wednesday, July 21, 2010 at 11:58 am | Permalink
The Rudd lovers are the exact people who were his most vicious, vocal critics when he was in office.]
You think so, do you left wing pinko!
[gillard attacked for using ‘moving forward’ 25 times in her speech]
People should be pulled up for being sloppy with numbers. The most reported count has been 22. ABC says 25. Julie Bishop said 30. If you are going to use numbers, get them right.
TSOP @ 1100
[No doubt you’ll blame a Labor victory on cheating or the AEC rigging the election, or some other partisan extremist rubbish.]
If the ALP wins the election, I am sure that TTH can seek to blame the usual shadowy culprits and conspirators that infest his dream world where the dreaded Socialists control everything – it’s all part of a UN-inspired, One World Government Conspiracy designed to deprive us of our sovereignty, financed by George Soros and the other Jewish bankers who own everything, and who take their marching orders straight from ‘The Protocols of the Elders of Zion.’
Tony Abbott is all that stands between us and this nightmarish future dystopia!
No, I wrote it for my health.
ABC News. North Korea has executed a cabinet minister for poor performance. Now there is a policy I could support. Real accountability.
my say@1173.
The three amigos can be used as a term of endearment, so no need to feel bad using it to describe Abbott, Hockey and Robb, who were behaving cluelessly yesterday. That is why that description suited the context in which it was used.
!2 midday ABNC radio news and it’s…
“Tony Abbott says…” as the first three words.
AGAIN!!!
[Oh and why Labor functionary use something other than the two party preferred vote to justify the raw power grab, and why Labor functionaries have the ordasity to turn on a man that delivered them government.]
Go beat that drum elsewhere. The “Rudd woulda done better” meme is dull and not worth this site’s bandwidth. Let’s wait for the election result before we criticise Gillard’s leadership (although I suspect that no matter how well Julia does, Kev “would’ve done better”)
Or is that analysis a little too “ordayshus”?
re 1319 Forget Rudd and incumbency. Gilliard should just be out there marketing the low unemployment, the performance through the GFC etc record low interest rates vs howard. that is the performance of the ALP and it should be reinforced. The libs blocked the stimulus and would have sent this country into recession.
Would Truthy be a fan of Hendrik Verwoerd by any chance?
BB The ABC unfortunately, isn’t the only medium that introduces the opposition first. It has been going on other stations for quite a while. It has been frustrating me for ages.
virtualkat – same things made me mad. Absolutely nothing to the same extent about Hockey’s Paris Hilton remarks.
I’ll put my thoughts over at politicalsword shortly.
The Big Ship 1336
You’re right. He is a true patriot. The way he sticks it to us latte-drinking lefties is just masterful. Best not mock him though. He and his cousins will rise up soon and take Australia back!
[Oh and why Labor functionary use something other than the two party preferred vote to justify the raw power grab, and why Labor functionaries have the ordasity to turn on a man that delivered them government.]
I’m not a Labor functionary.
[You’re an ABC-bias denier/ridiculer so your claims are no more credible than anyone else’s.]
I call it being sane 😉
New thread.